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Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

  • #1,221
  • Jun 18, 2015 3:50pm Jun 18, 2015 3:50pm
Hi G,

I have a question. The best trading opportunity lately was to go short with NZD basically with every pair. Obviously you did not trade it I guess because you have never mentioned those trades. Is it because the higer TFs (weekly and monthly) havenīt turned just yet? Or do you have other reasons? Are you not even interested NZD until the weekly charts reverse?

Wish you good trading,

IBO
  • #1,222
  • Jun 18, 2015 8:38pm Jun 18, 2015 8:38pm
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi G, I have a question. The best trading opportunity lately was to go short with NZD basically with every pair. Obviously you did not trade it I guess because you have never mentioned those trades. Is it because the higer TFs (weekly and monthly) havent turned just yet? Or do you have other reasons? Are you not even interested NZD until the weekly charts reverse? Wish you good trading, IBO
Hi IBO, Yes I've been trading longer term trades of late and the weekly has more impact on those trades. Sometimes the longer term trends are good but the short term trends just aren't good at the moment that I'm looking around for trades. Sometimes I'm already risking my money management limit on other trades and they are doing well. You are probably right that I've missed some NZD trades over the past few months, but I miss hundreds of good trades in some market somewhere in the world every week, and I never worry over those. That would be a lot of worry. It's a good observation though and I'll give it some more thought. Thanks!

G
  • #1,223
  • Jun 27, 2015 12:21pm Jun 27, 2015 12:21pm
A slow week. Only took +140 pips off GJ long. Just standing by now to see how the Greek thing works out. Carry on.

G
  • #1,224
  • Jun 27, 2015 6:13pm Jun 27, 2015 6:13pm
Quoting Graviton
A slow week. Only took +140 pips off GJ long. Just standing by now to see how the Greek thing works out. Carry on. G
Seems that Grexit is only hours or days away now...
  • #1,225
  • Jun 28, 2015 2:32pm Jun 28, 2015 2:32pm
Quoting o990l6mh
{quote} Seems that Grexit is only hours or days away now...
It seems that way, but I saw polls that said that Greeks would vote to accept a "bad deal" to stay in the Euro, so I can't trade either way on it for now.
  • #1,226
  • Jul 1, 2015 5:56pm Jul 1, 2015 5:56pm
Quoting IBreakOut
Hi G, I have a question. The best trading opportunity lately was to go short with NZD basically with every pair. Obviously you did not trade it I guess because you have never mentioned those trades. Is it because the higer TFs (weekly and monthly) havent turned just yet? Or do you have other reasons? Are you not even interested NZD until the weekly charts reverse? Wish you good trading, IBO
Good call IBO. I took it. Now 4 lots short and +500 pips. Thanks! G.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NU 4 Lot.PNG Size: 50 KB
  • #1,227
  • Jul 1, 2015 11:04pm Jul 1, 2015 11:04pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Good call IBO. I took it. Now 4 lots short and +500 pips. Thanks! G. {image}
Hi Graviton,

I'm having 2 in NJ.



I think, I'm in learning mode

Thanks Graviton.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 231 KB
  • #1,228
  • Jul 2, 2015 9:22pm Jul 2, 2015 9:22pm
Quoting Bendz
{quote} Hi Graviton, I'm having 2 in NJ. I think, I'm in learning mode Thanks Graviton.
Well, I guess we are all in a "learning mode". I didn't take NJ short because of last years devaluation of the Yen, but what is past is past. I should have given it a second look since it has been a good trade. Best success.

G
  • #1,229
  • Jul 8, 2015 1:38pm Jul 8, 2015 1:38pm
Betting on a breakout long from this 30 min wedge pattern. Trading well now on NU short and UCad long. Putting lots on and taking them off for steady profits. Steady as she goes. Keep calm and carry on. -G
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCad Long.PNG Size: 67 KB
  • #1,230
  • Jul 10, 2015 10:23am Jul 10, 2015 10:23am
Wild Cad swings after the poor Canada employment report this morning. The cad value should have dropped after the poor report, so what happened? It spiked up (UsdCad spiking down), taking out weak traders lined up in the correct direction but with close stops, before moving in the rational direction. The spike was so fast, it had to have been caused by computer trading.

This is one reason I no longer trade short timeframes. They are now the domain of computers that can see stop positions from one or more large brokers. Price can move not in response to fundamental or regular technical factors, but rather as a result of a calculation that money can be taken quickly from traders that are poorly positioned. Unless a trader has access to the same information and can think in microseconds, they have no chance of beating the computers on shorter timeframes.

Trading longer timeframes requires larger stops in the neighborhood of 100 to 200 pips, to avoid being taken out by these quick counter trend spikes, generally referred to as "stop hunting", but it takes away the computers advantage of being able to make very complex decisions in a microsecond. An important point to note here is the computers are really not "stop hunting". They actually already know where the stops are due to data feeds sold to the large traders by large brokers. The computers aren't really trying to take my personal little 4 lot stop away, but they are looking at the aggregate of all stops in their brokers data feeds, and extrapolating that date to the entire market. When they calculate there is money to be made by spiking price up or down, they have almost unlimited resources to make that happen and in a microsecond billions are transferred from the hands of small retail traders to large traders. Of course, we as small retail traders do not have access to those brokers data feeds showing the locations of stops, and that's an advantage the computers have that we must overcome with superior trading skills and discipline. For now, that's still barely possible, but very difficult. In the near future as computer reasoning skills improve, it may be impossible to beat them in any market or on any timeframe. Then all profits will go to the firm(s) with the best computers and we retail discretionary traders will just be feeding the machines with our hard earned capital.

This is something to think about carefully when trying to decide which timeframe to trade and how much risk to take in any individual trade. My personal Cad trade, UCad long entered a few weeks ago with wide stops, rode out the spike easily and is now well into positive pips, so I'm not complaining. I'm just trying to point out a reality of todays markets that some may not be aware of. We can discuss this more if anyone is interested. Best success. -G
  • #1,231
  • Jul 11, 2015 12:35am Jul 11, 2015 12:35am
Hi Graviton,
visiting here after a lot of weeks and recognizing its as always a very valuable thread here, thanks.
Have a nice day
  • #1,232
  • Jul 11, 2015 9:48pm Jul 11, 2015 9:48pm
Quoting Graviton
Wild Cad swings after the poor Canada employment report this morning. The cad value should have dropped after the poor report, so what happened? It spiked up (UsdCad spiking down), taking out weak traders lined up in the correct direction but with close stops, before moving in the rational direction. The spike was so fast, it had to have been caused by computer trading. This is one reason I no longer trade short timeframes. They are now the domain of computers that can see stop positions from one or more large brokers. Price can move not in response...

Hi Graviton,

That's true. I'm using minimum 100 pips or previous day's high / low as sl. So, Stop loss occurred minimum to me.

Bendz
  • #1,233
  • Jul 13, 2015 4:31pm Jul 13, 2015 4:31pm
Quoting doerpn
Hi Graviton, visiting here after a lot of weeks and recognizing its as always a very valuable thread here, thanks.
Good to see you stop by Doerpn. Hope things are going well for you. -G
  • #1,234
  • Jul 13, 2015 4:59pm Jul 13, 2015 4:59pm
Quoting Bendz
{quote} Hi Graviton, That's true. I'm using minimum 100 pips or previous day's high / low as sl. So, Stop loss occurred minimum to me. Bendz
Right. If you can tell that a trade is going bad, there is no need to wait until the stop is hit. Often I'll cut my losses short by half of the stop value or more. I'll usually exit at least 10 pips before the stop is hit even if I'm not sure why it's not going right, just to say I didn't sit around like a zombie and wait for a stop to take me out at the worst possible point. I can always re-enter later if it looks good again.

-G
  • #1,235
  • Edited 9:48pm Jul 15, 2015 9:31pm | Edited 9:48pm
Took another +366 pips off UCad Long. Letting three more lots run:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCad Long.PNG Size: 48 KB


Took +280 off NU short. Letting 5 lots run short now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NU short.PNG Size: 52 KB


That makes for a good week. The key to these long term trades is to cut losses short and let winners run for the big pips. Losers will rarely turn into big winners and winners tend to win more. My last loss was GCad long with a loss of 80 pips a week ago. That was a painful loss since the trade would now be up +500 pips had I stayed with it, but I have to cut losses somewhere and that was all I was willing to risk on it. I don't worry much over those coulda shoulda woulda trades though. I just cut losses short and try to have the patience to let winners run. That works good enough for me, as the above live trades indicate. Keep Calm, Carry On. -G
  • #1,236
  • Jul 15, 2015 11:31pm Jul 15, 2015 11:31pm
Quoting Graviton
Took another +366 pips off UCad Long. Letting three more lots run: {image} Took +280 off NU short. Letting 5 lots run short now. {image} That makes for a good week. The key to these long term trades is to cut losses short and let winners run for the big pips. Losers will rarely turn into big winners and winners tend to win more. My last loss was GCad long with a loss of 80 pips a week ago. That was a painful loss since the trade would now be up +500 pips had I stayed with it, but I have to cut losses somewhere and that was all I was willing to risk...
Nice trades G!

I was in some of these trades but didn't hold for so long to reap the big rewards. Are you keeping your SL for USDCAD there or moving it up?

By the way it will be good to show us the unsuccessful trades!
  • #1,237
  • Jul 16, 2015 1:35am Jul 16, 2015 1:35am
Quoting Mattrix83
{quote} Nice trades G! I was in some of these trades but didn't hold for so long to reap the big rewards. Are you keeping your SL for USDCAD there or moving it up? By the way it will be good to show us the unsuccessful trades!
Hi Mattrix. I'm leaving the sl where it is tonight for UCad long. It's just below the low made 4 days ago. I don't expect price to retrace that much tonight from yesterday's big move up, but if it does, the trade is over and I walk away with some nice gains. I expect price to retrace something less than 50% of yesterdays big gain and then to resume some more upward climb. This is an oil trade basically. The lower the price of oil, the better for the US and the worse for Canada. The US oil patch suffers, but not as much as the rest of the US economy gains, and it's a huge setback for Canada tar sands with a production cost for new oil at near $100 per barrel. The pressure on oil price now is down due to the US/Iran nuclear deal that could open Iran's oil markets to the world. It doesn't look as if the US Congress can stop that deal, but if they do, this trade is over.

Next time I have a loser I'll post it up along with some analysis of what I think went wrong. Of course, this is a probability game. A little less than 1/2 the time I'll do everything right and the trade still loses. Like earlier, when I spoke of taking an 80 pip loss on GCad long, only to see it turn right around and go my way 500 pips after I exited, I did everything right. I cut my loss short, just as I planned when I entered the trade. That would be the right decision most of the time. A little less than half the time it will be the wrong decision, but there is no way of knowing which is which ahead of time, so I cut my losses and move on to another opportunity. That's what the probabilities favor, so no regrets.

Best success,
G
  • #1,238
  • Jul 16, 2015 10:57am Jul 16, 2015 10:57am
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Hi Mattrix. I'm leaving the sl where it is tonight for UCad long. It's just below the low made 4 days ago. I don't expect price to retrace that much tonight from yesterday's big move up, but if it does, the trade is over and I walk away with some nice gains. I expect price to retrace something less than 50% of yesterdays big gain and then to resume some more upward climb. This is an oil trade basically. The lower the price of oil, the better for the US and the worse for Canada. The US oil patch suffers, but not as much as the rest of the...
thanks for the detailed explanation! I guess unlike you, I am still more of sole technical person but your view of the fundamentals is gd info. May I ask about the UC trade above... Say if, after the large up bar, there is a retracement candle say 40%, you will still keep your trailing stop as it is? But if retracement is 70%? Will u close your trade, move your stop up?


And about the GC trade you mentioned; you moved to the next set up... Will you still monitor this pair still? Or should I ask, you didn't renter your trade because there was a better setup? Or because maybe you already reach your limit exposure when there was another set up on GC? Thanks
  • #1,239
  • Edited 4:39pm Jul 16, 2015 11:18am | Edited 4:39pm
Quoting Mattrix83
{quote} thanks for the detailed explanation! I guess unlike you, I am still more of sole technical person but your view of the fundamentals is gd info. May I ask about the UC trade above... Say if, after the large up bar, there is a retracement candle say 40%, you will still keep your trailing stop as it is? But if retracement is 70%? Will u close your trade, move your stop up? And about the GC trade you mentioned; you moved to the next set up... Will you still monitor this pair still? Or should I ask, you didn't renter your trade because there...
Looks like retracement on the UCad long has bottomed out right on the 23.6 fib line as shown below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCad Long.PNG Size: 56 KB


I would be looking to manually exit this trade with a retracement more than 50% of yesterday's move. I consider that unlikely, but I'd take my pips and move on. There is no need to crowd the trade with the stop as it might exit on a spike just before going more my way. I haven't hit a stop in a long time since I try to plan on how to exit manually early if a trade goes bad.

Yes, the GCad is performing similar to the UCad. I will probably re-enter it, but it's late now and I've had a good week so I'll probably look it over next week. Best success. -G
  • #1,240
  • Jul 16, 2015 11:33am Jul 16, 2015 11:33am
Oh! I did just enter an EG short. Win or lose, I'll post the results up here with some analysis next week. -G
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