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Daily EUR/JPY analysis

  • #41
  • Jul 5, 2006 11:32pm Jul 5, 2006 11:32pm
What do you think the Eur/Jpy will do next?
  • #42
  • Jul 10, 2006 12:39pm Jul 10, 2006 12:39pm
I went short on the break of the weekly pin bar and a break of a two bar low on the 4h chart.
  • #43
  • Jul 10, 2006 3:16pm Jul 10, 2006 3:16pm
BUt how low will it go? I am seeing some saying 141.

Quoting Kalle7
I went short on the break of the weekly pin bar and a break of a two bar low on the 4h chart.
  • #44
  • Jul 18, 2006 5:49pm Jul 18, 2006 5:49pm
EUR/JPY is at a very critical juncture right now. Check out the Weekly chart and the convergence of the long-term downtrend line and resistance around 147.00 - 147.55. This point of inflection could determine the EUR/JPY direction for quite a while, so keep your eye out!

If you also zoom in on the 1H and 4H charts, you'll notice several Head and Shoulders patterns, one of which (the last) is just now finishing the right shoulder.

I'm personally bearish on EUR/JPY as I think it is going to respect the downtrend and bounce off the key resistance line, but only time will tell.

Comments?

- Ian
Attached Image
  • #45
  • Jul 18, 2006 5:54pm Jul 18, 2006 5:54pm
Well Editor posted in another thread that JPY pairs generally fall several hundred pips in August (8 of the past 9 years). So maybe you are onto something.
  • #46
  • Jul 18, 2006 6:02pm Jul 18, 2006 6:02pm
Well Editor posted in another thread that JPY pairs generally fall several hundred pips in August (8 of the past 9 years). So maybe you are onto something. -Yardie

hi yardie did you mean that the jpy will fall or that the currency in pair with it will fall?

thanx in advance
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #47
  • Jul 18, 2006 6:23pm Jul 18, 2006 6:23pm
The article is here: http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=6426

Quoting mike w
Well Editor posted in another thread that JPY pairs generally fall several hundred pips in August (8 of the past 9 years). So maybe you are onto something. -Yardie

hi yardie did you mean that the jpy will fall or that the currency in pair with it will fall?

thanx in advance
  • #48
  • Jul 18, 2006 6:31pm Jul 18, 2006 6:31pm
Hi guys, I've been waiting since April for this pair to bounce off the long-term trend line.
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&postcount=122
Still hasn't happened but can't bring myself to commit long or short because of it.
I expect it will be a gravy train when it goes, I'll let you know when I'm going on holiday because that's bound to be the time it moves LOL

Peter
  • #49
  • Jul 18, 2006 8:13pm Jul 18, 2006 8:13pm
Quoting Yardie
Well Editor posted in another thread that JPY pairs generally fall several hundred pips in August (8 of the past 9 years). So maybe you are onto something.
Very interesting read, Yardie. Thanks for including the article.
  • #50
  • Jul 19, 2006 2:39pm Jul 19, 2006 2:39pm
Quoting PeterFM
Hi guys, I've been waiting since April for this pair to bounce off the long-term trend line.
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&postcount=122
Still hasn't happened but can't bring myself to commit long or short because of it.
I expect it will be a gravy train when it goes, I'll let you know when I'm going on holiday because that's bound to be the time it moves LOL

Peter
I can certainly relate. I have already shorted this several times to no avail. It certainly looks like the perfect time to short IMO. It is reaching highs that haven't been seen in almost ten years and with the Yen just getting the interest rate hike. What am I missing why won't it fall?
  • #51
  • Jul 19, 2006 4:57pm Jul 19, 2006 4:57pm
Quoting derabuf
I can certainly relate. I have already shorted this several times to no avail. It certainly looks like the perfect time to short IMO. It is reaching highs that haven't been seen in almost ten years and with the Yen just getting the interest rate hike. What am I missing why won't it fall?
Check out this article on EUR/JPY from DailyFX. Based on several different perspectives, they are predicting (I shudder when I use that word) a turning point down at/around 148.33. It's a very intriguing read.

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...747631957.html
  • #52
  • Jul 20, 2006 7:17am Jul 20, 2006 7:17am
Quoting derabuf
I can certainly relate. I have already shorted this several times to no avail. It certainly looks like the perfect time to short IMO. It is reaching highs that haven't been seen in almost ten years and with the Yen just getting the interest rate hike. What am I missing why won't it fall?
The word 'why' will bring up some serious problems in your making money trading....It is happening! The trend is up, and your looking for a place to go short....look at the chart again.
  • #53
  • Jul 21, 2006 3:30am Jul 21, 2006 3:30am
Quoting gt_eit
The word 'why' will bring up some serious problems in your making money trading....It is happening! The trend is up, and your looking for a place to go short....look at the chart again.
Well I looked at the chart again and just closed out a short trade with this pair for a 76 PIP gain!
  • #54
  • Aug 13, 2006 2:53am Aug 13, 2006 2:53am
Im long on Eur/Jpy.
I set target level around 148.47
  • #55
  • Aug 13, 2006 8:27am Aug 13, 2006 8:27am
What is your stop loss?



Quoting coon_70
Im long on Eur/Jpy.
I set target level around 148.47
  • #56
  • Aug 13, 2006 2:36pm Aug 13, 2006 2:36pm
stop loss is past the 50% retracement of the current wave.
The profit target i have is a projection of 23% of this current wave.
i think it will go higher than the 23% projection, but i put that up as a minimum of what i think it will go.
  • #57
  • Aug 13, 2006 4:57pm Aug 13, 2006 4:57pm
Quote
EUR/YEN: THE EURO WILL CLIMB TO 160 YEN WITHIN TWO MONTHS, FROM 148.14 ON AUG. 11 - CIBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT
- Cites interest rate differentials

Quote
EUR/YEN: TO GAIN ON THE BACK OF SLOWING WORLD ECONOMY; FOREIGN DEMAND FOR JAPANESE EQUITIES TO WANE - BARCLAYS IN A MARKET NOTE

Quote
FOREX SURVEY: 33% SAY EUR/YEN WILL RISE THIS WEEK V 41% WHO SAID THE PAIR WILL RISE LAST WEEK

Lost of Bearish YEN news...

If people do believe these predictions, then, this will lead of "self-fullfilling" prophecies!
  • #58
  • Aug 13, 2006 8:04pm Aug 13, 2006 8:04pm
Or a contrarian would go the other way. When everyone is selling sell sell sell or buy buy buy, its time to go in the other direction. The interest differential was always a factor yet the Yen goes up and down during that time. Right now the EURYEN is looking extremely overbought...and it hasnt had a nice 300 pip pullback in some time.
  • #59
  • Aug 13, 2006 8:56pm Aug 13, 2006 8:56pm
Do any of you think German GDP will give any volitility to the Eur/Jpy?
  • #60
  • Aug 14, 2006 1:40am Aug 14, 2006 1:40am
well it hit my target of 148.48.
my indicators say stay in for a while though so i will continue that.
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