PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

Yes, it's right. but I meant that the news will be for an hour and a sideways trend tell us we have to be patient and wait for the next signals and do not forget to look at the higher TF

[quote=Mauro-J;8346518]{quote} Dear winforex, My basis analysis is PVSRA as mentioned by TAH in the page#1. I read the market with PVSRA to make a hypothesis "what is roughly considered by MMS". As mentioned in page#1: price tends to consolidate above key SR when MMs are filling short orders for SM (Smart Money) and long orders for DM (Dumb Money), and price tends to consolidate below key SR when MMs are filling long orders for SM and short orders for DM. So, in the case of UJ on my last trade on yesterday, i found some PVSRA clues on higher TF (cz on this UJ trade i used M5 TF to trade, so the higher TF is M15 (at least), or H1).

Thank you very much for a detailed explanation.
It definitely helps many of us.
Wish you all the best.

Winf

Hi Leentjai,

Ahhh, yes, thank you. I almost entered short when it dropped below 1.1160. Decided to wait for confirmation. It was a classic long setup at that time though (small scalping) but I was already short bias. So didn't enter trade either way. Thanks for your insight.

Sorry, been so busy. But here is your belated reply.

News can move 100+ pips, and result in continuation 200-500 pips or more. My trading accounts for moves that big so it doesn't bother me. Most of the time, I don't even watch it during the news. That's because I trade very small. I also will get out near break even when my trade size gets big. I utilize the 0.618 retracement, which is a little better 0.5 retracement (break even point assuming equal spacing and lot sizing). The 0.618 is very common and happens on all time frames. The question is if you can handle the moves. Just take a look at a runaway trade on the m1, then move to m5, then m15, etc. You will see that the 0.618 retracement will eventually appear on the higher time frames if it fails a lower time frame. Of course, you will die if you try to outlast anything above a daily. But daily's seem to be less erratic.

When I say, Max Drawdown of 10%, that is not my Max allowable drawdown. It is the max drawdown that has occurred from statistics of my trade. My actual risk appetite is larger... I'd say I start feeling uncomfortable around 20%, at which I will manage a trade more closely to get out near break even or small loss. You have to look at higher time frames at this point (H4 and above) to see where price is likely to go, and note areas of retest to get out. Don't just senselessly get out because you've hit your 20%. At higher time frames, price will move both ways drastically over a longer period of time, so you'll have time to get out slightly better.

I don't recommend this for everyone, but if you have the patience and have managed your position sizes properly, the risk is quite low. If you trade 4 pairs, with two in the opposite direction, you will gain on two while the other is in drawdown, assuming eventual ranging of price. Of course, this method works best in ranging markets. In trending markets, you will get higher drawdown.

After many years of experience, I learned that what works best for my style aligns with "less is more". As in less chart time, less risk by small position sizing, and lower profit target that is easily achievable. Because I have less chart time, I don't deal with trading psychology and stress as much. I won't be moved by those fakes MMs do or be tied up in chart patterns. I just deal with whatever the market does and take whatever it gives me. There will always be a drawdown curve, but it'll be pushed up by my slowly accumulating profits from other pairs in the right direction.

Hope this helps.

Here are some recent closed trades:



Been too busy with work. Looks like position trading still tromps lower time frame (LTF) in the aspect of trade management and time commitment. Unless I become full time trader, I don't think LTF fits my current lifestyle. I also do not like the additional stress involved. Kudos to those with guts, perseverance, and patience to trade such a style.

UJ, M5 scalp +6.7 on pullback to ema

nice trading day

uj:



uc



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Hello Quarter levels wasn´t there because i have turned them of ....

I haven´t traded Pre-London cause i need sometimes sleep more that 5 hours you know

ja,ja.

My today trades as u can see they are all the same again and again as always ...

Strong Trend - Consolidation above or below Qarter, Half, or Whole Level - then breakout ...

Seems to mee that both threads ( donnafx, and there ) are pretty dead ...

Thank you !!

Have you at last for 5m TF decided?

I'm waiting after consolidation to short GBCAD if breaks half level down.

Going to mix both

Here is an example of an exit at the 61.8% Fib Retrace:

One week trading in GBP/USD

nice master pips

Thanks mates