Why Can't I Trade?! | Page 7 | Forex Factory

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Why Can't I Trade?!

  • #121
  • Jun 23, 2015 12:28pm Jun 23, 2015 12:28pm
Quoting cat
{quote} Just passing through and noticed your P&L ratio. You're average winner is 21 pips, and yet you just got stopped out for 30 pips!! You really need to have a much better ratio than this otherwise your gains will keep getting pegged back. Of course it also depends on what your win/loss ratio is, but you've really got to be looking at a 2:1 P&L ratio as a very bare minimum to get ahead, 3:1 far better.
Yes stop loss on this occasion was 30pips as it was a higher frame support level so I allowed a larger stop but take profit would have been 60 pips so I was still at 2:1 reward. The trades earlier in the day were with 10 pip and 15 pip stop losses which is nearer where my average stop loss would be.

It is a work in progress though so hopefully that will continue as it has in recent weeks and as the months pass I'll be in much stronger position.
  • #122
  • Jun 23, 2015 12:40pm Jun 23, 2015 12:40pm
Quoting rolandW
Downandout... just an observation, but I cant see where the issue should have been here... On the 1 hour chart, the price bounced, and we had confirmation that it was not going to break that support line at 1.57662 (on my charts at least)... it then rose to 1.58101 which would have been past my TP, as it is below the previous resistance, S/D level. This was respected. It then went back down to test that 1.57662 level, which it broke through and confirmed that the support was not going to be respected this time... You have to let the candles close...
Yes in hindsight I should have sold the 15757 level where I had previously entered as this was classic resistance broken becoming support.

Also, my trade was taken later in the day then what you are suggesting in your reply as once price broken through the 15757 it it never went back above only giving a new sell-off aiming for the next level at 15693 on my chart.

I will take note of candle close but I do believe selling a bullish candle and buying a bearish one gives the best entry and also increases the reward to risk ratio too.

I didnt trade after the loss as part of my new plan till my levels are where they should be but had I had the chart open at taht time I would have sold the bullish candle as today was a down day and so rallies should be sold.
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  • #123
  • Jun 23, 2015 12:44pm Jun 23, 2015 12:44pm
You where trading against the trend trying to catch the bottom..
  • #124
  • Jun 23, 2015 1:33pm Jun 23, 2015 1:33pm
Quoting downandout
{image}
Quite busy chart for 15m, do you need all the lines there? I'd say even if you would scalp the 1m you wouldn't be able to use all these 15m levels..just my 2c.
Markets wispers, just tune in.
  • #125
  • Jun 23, 2015 3:54pm Jun 23, 2015 3:54pm
Quoting merquise
You where trading against the trend trying to catch the bottom..
I trade 4hr for direction merquise so this is a minor retracement for me. That said once 15820 went maybe short term flow is short. I'll keep watching the levels for buy signals.
  • #126
  • Jun 23, 2015 3:59pm Jun 23, 2015 3:59pm
Quoting plukin
{quote} Quite busy chart for 15m, do you need all the lines there? I'd say even if you would scalp the 1m you wouldn't be able to use all these 15m levels..just my 2c.
Yea those levels are important for me plukin although I dont trade them all. The blue and pink are my key levels the green are just more short term levels. Might be too busy for some but the reactions are there. I'm still looking for longs this pair but want to see a change in short term flow before taking the next long so may hunt shorts in the meantimes although I suspect we will clear long holders at 15677 before next long signal arrives.
  • #127
  • Jun 23, 2015 4:34pm Jun 23, 2015 4:34pm
downandout, I just found this thread (not on Forex Factory much anymore) and read only the first page, so sorry if this was already covered. Also, I'm replying to your first post.

I have a genetic disability for daytrading. I spent 3 years and a lot of money failing and failing and failing again. Once i began to trade the daily chart my success rate improved significantly. After a couple of years I moved up to the weekly chart, with even more success. I'm now trading on the monthly chart and have a roughly 80%-90% success rate.

Of course being good at entries and exits is important, but proportionately, the longer the time frame, the more reliable are trends, chart patterns, momentum, or whatever methodology you use, and the more wiggle-room you can give the price. In other words, it's reasonable to have a 200- or 300-pip stoploss, which gives the price time to sort itself out, maybe two or three or five days, before moving in your direction, and it's above the day-to-day knee-jerk reactions and manipulation.

Longer-term trading is more relaxing and there's little room for revenge trading. The potential for higher profit from shorter-term trading is alluring, but to be obvious it does one no good if he's not profitable.

I hope that's useful.

Rob M.
  • #128
  • Jun 23, 2015 5:07pm Jun 23, 2015 5:07pm
Quoting Rob Mondave
downandout, I just found this thread (not on Forex Factory much anymore) and read only the first page, so sorry if this was already covered. Also, I'm replying to your first post. I have a genetic disability for daytrading. I spent 3 years and a lot of money failing and failing and failing again. Once i began to trade the daily chart my success rate improved significantly. After a couple of years I moved up to the weekly chart, with even more success. I'm now trading on the monthly chart and have a roughly 80%-90% success rate. Of course being good...
Thanks for the input Rob, I have been noting weekly trends and have opened a demo account to try and see how it works in reality so interesting to see.
  • #129
  • Jun 24, 2015 1:48am Jun 24, 2015 1:48am
Quoting MFirst
{quote} Loosers talk!
It's "loser" not "looser"
  • #130
  • Jun 24, 2015 11:22am Jun 24, 2015 11:22am
Missed two entries today at 15780 and 15757 due to work but as we had rejected both those levels I was confident price was reaching for the old 15676 level so entered with a 25pip stop loss targeting 60 pips which was achieved shortly after with my take profit being hit.
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  • #131
  • Jun 24, 2015 11:56am Jun 24, 2015 11:56am
What TF are you taking trades on? I see you jumping between a few
  • #132
  • Jun 24, 2015 12:58pm Jun 24, 2015 12:58pm
Quoting SheldonFX
What TF are you taking trades on? I see you jumping between a few
Hello SheldonFX - Trades are only taken M5 or M15. Analysis is 4hr for long / short bias and weekly and daily levels are what I mark with some from the smaller timeframes for nearer term intraday levels.
  • #133
  • Jun 24, 2015 2:23pm Jun 24, 2015 2:23pm
Quoting downandout
{quote} Yea those levels are important for me plukin although I dont trade them all. The blue and pink are my key levels the green are just more short term levels. Might be too busy for some but the reactions are there. I'm still looking for longs this pair but want to see a change in short term flow before taking the next long so may hunt shorts in the meantimes although I suspect we will clear long holders at 15677 before next long signal arrives.
Ok, I too had bunch of lines on my charts in the past..and they did have reactions..just couldnt make it work for me. Reaction on a line doesnt mean theres a trade comming. Since KISSing it, the results are better as I am more picky. And I move towards being even more picky..
Markets wispers, just tune in.
  • #134
  • Jun 25, 2015 7:24am Jun 25, 2015 7:24am
Quoting downandout
{quote} Hello SheldonFX - Trades are only taken M5 or M15. Analysis is 4hr for long / short bias and weekly and daily levels are what I mark with some from the smaller timeframes for nearer term intraday levels.
Sorry if you have answerd this but was is your entry criteria? What sort of behaviour do you look for in price at these key levels?
  • #135
  • Jun 25, 2015 7:44am Jun 25, 2015 7:44am
Quoting plukin
{quote} Ok, I too had bunch of lines on my charts in the past..and they did have reactions..just couldn't make it work for me. Reaction on a line doesnt mean theres a trade comming. Since KISSing it, the results are better as I am more picky. And I move towards being even more picky..
Plukin, remember though that being more picky may result in you filtering out more good signals than bad... Forex is mainly a numbers game, and you have to play those numbers sometimes! Losing is part of the journey, after all it is easy to get 0% losers... just dont trade! haha!
  • #136
  • Jun 25, 2015 3:30pm Jun 25, 2015 3:30pm
Quoting SheldonFX
{quote} Sorry if you have answerd this but was is your entry criteria? What sort of behaviour do you look for in price at these key levels?
The entry criteria is to sell any retracements where the 4hr is showing a short direction or to buy dips where the 4hr is showing a long direction. Often at these levels when price price breaks through it will re-test the level and that is the entry on a M5 or M15 chart.

Other times I will wait for the rally to start, break a recent high and then not enter until the next retracement has occurred as then the fresh high is a good break out trade. Reverse for sell opportunities.

Support and resistance levels are the key for me and since starting this log I can see I am waiting for these levels to come in to play rather than just trading without having a pre-market plan.

I'm enthused by the early results but want to see these consistently grow.
  • #137
  • Jun 25, 2015 3:41pm Jun 25, 2015 3:41pm
​ what actually makes you pull the trigger though? How do you choose whether price is going to reverse or sail on through a level.
  • #138
  • Jun 26, 2015 10:27am Jun 26, 2015 10:27am
Quoting downandout
{quote} I trade 4hr for direction merquise so this is a minor retracement for me. That said once 15820 went maybe short term flow is short. I'll keep watching the levels for buy signals.
Well, if this was a retracement for you then you should have set your SL according to the 4hr trend.

On my charts the H4 trend was up and the M15 trend was down.

It makes no sense to take the up trend from H4 for direction and then enter a long trade on M15 while the direction on M15 is down. You have to wait until everything aligns.
..
  • #139
  • Jun 27, 2015 5:31am Jun 27, 2015 5:31am
Quoting SheldonFX
​ what actually makes you pull the trigger though? How do you choose whether price is going to reverse or sail on through a level.
Long scenario - Price hits support and bounces away, I will wait for a retrace in to a recent support or resistance level and buy - reverse for selling. Selling the actual support or resistance is the best entry but if you are unsure if a level will hold, wait and trade the flow of the 15m chart. You can see over and over in the charts that when new levels are achieved they are nearly always retraced back into. These may not be the actual support and resistance noted as more often they are the most recent highs and lows for that day. It is these intraday levels that offer good R:R trading.

This is why having the levels on my chart is important along with a directional intention based on the current market flow and which level we are potentially running to.
An example from Wednesday would be when price opened it rallied above 15757 and continued to push through the 15780 level coming back and using it as support, had it continued above 15809 then I would have looked for a buy around this area but the price didn't reach it and came back below 15780 and 15757 too. Look on the 15m chart now and see when the 15m lows were taken they were often retraced back in to given the entry critria. I entered short here as the next longer term levels on my chart were 15690/80 but more importantly there were lows around 15677 which is exactly where I exited.
  • #140
  • Jun 27, 2015 5:53am Jun 27, 2015 5:53am
Quoting Slicktick
{quote} Well, if this was a retracement for you then you should have set your SL according to the 4hr trend. On my charts the H4 trend was up and the M15 trend was down. It makes no sense to take the up trend from H4 for direction and then enter a long trade on M15 while the direction on M15 is down. You have to wait until everything aligns.
Look at every rally on a 4hr chart. You can see every move started when the 15m was down. If the 4hr is up then I look at 15m flow being down as an opportunity to buy at a good level to get back in line with the overall direction at a pre marked level as I did at 15757.

You can wait as you say (I am not saying you are wrong and I am right by the way - we all trade differently) and wait for it all to align and buy the breakout but you will often miss a lot of the move and stop loss placement is more difficult.

To have placed a stop loss of more then 30pips at that level would have been impossible for me as my max stop loss is 30pips and so when 15757 broke my next level was at 15677 which was also a level I thought we would hit so my stop loss would have had to be 80 pips + as there was also no way of knowing if a bounce would occur when we got there. That's a trade I wont take and will concentrate on shorts short term at that point until 15m chart breaks a significant high.

Flows are still down so I will continue to look for shorts until I see price back above 15800 and then I will look to hold trades longer when in line with the overall 4hr. Any trades taken here will be for 30-40 pips as to me it is counter trend trading. If price continues below 15680 then I will look for levels at 15630 and 15555 to come along.
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