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  • #9,181
  • Jun 23, 2015 9:17pm Jun 23, 2015 9:17pm
NFLX goes 7 to 1 split in July....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/netfli...203117589.html#
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,182
  • Jun 24, 2015 12:19am Jun 24, 2015 12:19am
Quoting The Fool
for new short SPY call spreads I am holding out for a strong move towards $213.

zzzzzzz week's tape a snoozefest, big pop/drop coming by Thurs, maybe Friday...or tomorrow....or maybe next week, Greece, of course......


.........
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,183
  • Jun 24, 2015 1:18am Jun 24, 2015 1:18am
vix call stupids - why I've never heard this before? - stupids just stacked long calls or puts...yeah, long vol stupid, stupid
http://www.optionmonster.com/news/ar...ng_104873.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,184
  • Jun 24, 2015 1:25am Jun 24, 2015 1:25am
^VIX not closed <12 since 12/5/2014....CB's killed the markets...it's all over

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-06-23_vix.png Size: 122 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,185
  • Jun 24, 2015 9:42am Jun 24, 2015 9:42am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} zzzzzzz week's tape a snoozefest, big pop/drop coming by Thurs, maybe Friday...or tomorrow....or maybe next week, Greece, of course...... .........
....never short a dull tape....I am catching up on naptime.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,186
  • Jun 24, 2015 10:29am Jun 24, 2015 10:29am
Hi TF... I'm just scalping a bit... /NQ almost hit ATH today, I think it maybe missed that by a point, or hit it... I tried to short the mofo, missed by 1 point, silly me... bah... never mind, I made some $ on it prior that today... and on DAX. No new positions, waiting mode.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,187
  • Jun 24, 2015 11:13am Jun 24, 2015 11:13am
Icahn warns markets 'extremely overheated,' especially in junk bonds

Yep... He sold the remaining NFLX... that guy knows his job.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,188
  • Jun 24, 2015 12:23pm Jun 24, 2015 12:23pm
Quoting StrayDog
Hi TF... I'm just scalping a bit...
I am almost all in cash....I have one Jul SPY $216/$218 bear call credit spread still running - never got closed when closing was good move, now risking it....m/l waiting for Greece to be resolved. I guess I have lotsa company there...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,189
  • Jun 24, 2015 12:44pm Jun 24, 2015 12:44pm
Quoting The Fool
now risking it....m/l waiting for Greece to be resolved....
find my self entertaining risky trade ideas....the gambler in me has been exorcized almost completely...I don't even play the lotto anymore....all spare cash gets shoved into trading accounts...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,190
  • Jun 24, 2015 2:59pm Jun 24, 2015 2:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} find my self entertaining risky trade ideas....the gambler in me has been exorcized almost completely...I don't even play the lotto anymore....all spare cash gets shoved into trading accounts...
That's the spirit, my friend... f**k gambling, we are here to trade.

/ES has the potential to go lower. In order to do that, it MUST break 2100, which is only 1 point higher of the fibo 38.2 retracement of the latest up move.
That could be done today in after hours, but need to hold tomorrow... and then more uncertainty about Greece, like:
OMG! no deal, oh no.... VIX is going to be at $14... oh no, oh no... /ES is gonna drop 5 points real hard, and so on... and we may get a chance to see lower prices...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,191
  • Jun 24, 2015 6:16pm Jun 24, 2015 6:16pm
Quoting nickah
{image} Looking at a 93% ivr I am really keen to sell some spread here. The thing is should it be IC ? seems like a wide wing IC. It could possibly be an uptrend taking a breather now, sell 44/45 put ? or it has seen it's peak at 55.19 .... looking at the volume 50, 55 , 43, 44 seems to be the most crowded area. I am aiming July15 24DTE IC 43/44/54/55/. {image} {image} lastly just wanna let you know The Fool you never know there are people that are watching this thread closely just like I do that everyday cos this is a valuable thread , we learn...
I churned through the high IVR underlyings looking for something attractive; ASHR routinely comes up, as does FXI ... . But ASHR is higher IVR right now than FXI ... .

The set-up I looked at was a 42/45/57/60 IC, July 31 expiration for an .85 credit ... . I'm looking at the bid/asks after market close, so I would be interested to see if those strikes are liquid (.05 max spread between bid and ask) or not. The reason why I'd go for an IC is I don't really have a directional bias on the thing, but the way it's ripped up, it may totally implode, making a short call vertical more attractive ... . Truth be told, I prefer FXI over ASHR as a proxy for the Chinese market ... . FXI usually has a higher option volume and is therefore more liquid ... . FXI's IVR of 50+ isn't bad for an ETF, but I can't seem to squeeze enough credit out of a similar FXI IC as with ASHR ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,192
  • Jun 24, 2015 6:19pm Jun 24, 2015 6:19pm
Quoting StrayDog
/ES has the potential to go lower....
the onset of rising rates is likely a much bigger deal for the markets than Greece....really the scenario I was expecting is a relief rally off a deal for Greece, where we would see some new ath's for the US indices - but those would be short-lived and I would be selling into that strength with both barrels....well, we'll see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,193
  • Jun 24, 2015 6:34pm Jun 24, 2015 6:34pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am almost all in cash....I have one Jul SPY $216/$218 bear call credit spread still running - never got closed when closing was good move, now risking it....m/l waiting for Greece to be resolved. I guess I have lotsa company there...
Moving toward that ... . Got out of two strangles yesterday and today -- one in IYR and one in MON for 50% max profit ... . Want to get things whittled down to just SPY/DIA plays (can't ever seem to get squat out of IWM, although I've looked at it repeatedly) ... . Hanging onto a few oddball trades that just need to work themselves out toward expiration ... .

Did look at high IVR crud in Dough and potential earnings plays, but don't feel like having to manage those ... . Decided to leave my SPY short call verts alone and let them work themselves out, although today probably may have been a good opp to add some long delta ... . Feel like waiting for 208 if I'm going to add short put wings to the short call verts I've got, but we'll see when we get there ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,194
  • Jun 24, 2015 6:36pm Jun 24, 2015 6:36pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
ASHR routinely comes up, as does FXI ...
looked at that (ASHR), I don't like those wide bid/ask spreads, last thing I need is to start off in the hole on a shitty spread...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,195
  • Jun 24, 2015 6:37pm Jun 24, 2015 6:37pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} the onset of rising rates is likely a much bigger deal for the markets than Greece....really the scenario I was expecting is a relief rally off a deal for Greece, where we would see some new ath's for the US indices - but those would be short-lived and I would be selling into that strength with both barrels....well, we'll see....
Was hoping for 213.75 or 214-ish ... . Not sure where to buy into weakness ... . 204 maybe ... . 198 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,196
  • Jun 24, 2015 6:39pm Jun 24, 2015 6:39pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Feel like waiting for 208 if I'm going to add short put wings to the short call verts I've got, but we'll see when we get there ... .
the waiting game...not a problem now, but it has taken me all these years to get comfortable with it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,197
  • Jun 24, 2015 6:41pm Jun 24, 2015 6:41pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Was hoping for 213.75 or 214-ish ... . Not sure where to buy into weakness ... . 204 maybe ... . 198 ... .
man I wish I knew - will just have to wait and see how it looks once it gets rolling....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,198
  • Jun 24, 2015 6:41pm Jun 24, 2015 6:41pm
Quoting The Fool
^VIX not closed <12 since 12/5/2014....CB's killed the markets...it's all over {image}
So glad I didn't poke my dick into a VIX product out of boredom ... . I'd be singing in a higher key about now ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,199
  • Jun 24, 2015 6:46pm Jun 24, 2015 6:46pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} So glad I didn't poke my dick into a VIX product out of boredom ... . I'd be singing in a higher key about now ... .
I don't mind throwing defined risk change at long vol sometimes - when it looks good - but if you zoom out on the VIX products charts you see how isolated those spikes are, so you know catching one really good is a long shot...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,200
  • Jun 24, 2015 6:52pm Jun 24, 2015 6:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I don't mind throwing defined risk change at long vol sometimes - when it looks good - but if you zoom out on the VIX products charts you see how isolated those spikes are, so you know catching one really good is a long shot...
the VXX weeklies, for instance, if you look a buck otm - they get really cheap with a day or 3 to go, so if you find yourself in an eventful week and want to make a bet on a sharp drop or a good rebound in the last 2 days, you can look at straight long calls/puts, maybe try a cheap strangle, or do verts to increase your POP a bit.

So, maybe Greece gets resolved Thurs - or not - this might be one of those weeks....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-06-24_vxx.png Size: 74 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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