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Let's Trade Options

  • #9,161
  • Jun 21, 2015 10:29pm Jun 21, 2015 10:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'm still legging in generally, so I will be rolling IC's I am in if we get good movement. I fully expect a relief rally on a Greece can kick and I will perchance entertain long scalps with that move, but mainly will look for it to exhaust, which might take a while - I will not be at all surprised to see new ath's across all 3 major US indices within the next week or 2...
Truth be told, I got a little impatient with legging in on the put side ... . Need to let the market come to me ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,162
  • Jun 21, 2015 10:33pm Jun 21, 2015 10:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} it would be very nice to scratch up to portfolio margin size and just sell naked strangles....spreads are fine if that's all we can do but they're also a pain in the butt, too.... ...and the strangles are what you end up with by playing each side of the fence, fully Karen ST style - if you're just gonna play the far ends of the sigma curve, that's the place to be.
Much simpler way to go ... . Gonna be a "couple" of years yet ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,163
  • Jun 21, 2015 10:34pm Jun 21, 2015 10:34pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Truth be told, I got a little impatient with legging in on the put side ... . Need to let the market come to me ... .
understandable, you could grow old waiting for any lasting sell action in the btfd world. Assuming Greece gets fixed we will have the old "fear the Fed" meme come back...eventually - and there will be some good selling into that. This fall? - next year?...we'll see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,164
  • Jun 21, 2015 10:35pm Jun 21, 2015 10:35pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Much simpler way to go ... . Gonna be a "couple" of years yet ... .
yeah, me too....sigh
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,165
  • Jun 21, 2015 10:41pm Jun 21, 2015 10:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} 10 streak on the bread and butter IC type stuff is doable....of course, I have gotten used to the sideways market. One of these days we will get a break that trends strongly up or down, then it will be time to adapt & change and maybe I might do that without losing too much....or even foresee the change and take advantage of it...idk, first time for everything I guess...
Still waiting for this elusive "correction." Bailed out of equities in my 401(k) middle of last year expecting a mid-term election "correction" ... . Thought Russia was going to implode, and there would be a "correction" ... . Thought we'd see the back end of Greece at some point (f'in default already, you ginormous nobbers) ... . Naturally, it can't go on forever ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,166
  • Jun 21, 2015 10:42pm Jun 21, 2015 10:42pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} understandable, you could grow old waiting for any lasting sell action in the btfd world. Assuming Greece gets fixed we will have the old "fear the Fed" meme come back...eventually - and there will be some good selling into that. This fall? - next year?...we'll see....
Fed interest rate hikes ... . Another can being kicked down the road.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,167
  • Jun 22, 2015 9:21am Jun 22, 2015 9:21am
for new short SPY call spreads I am holding out for a strong move towards $213.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,168
  • Jun 22, 2015 11:40am Jun 22, 2015 11:40am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... . Naturally, I would like to just strangle everything (since strangles are slightly easier to manage throughout the cycle), but strangles eat up margin that I might want to keep free for a vol pop or other event ... .
Strangles DO it up a margin, especially on indices. The solution could be trading the wide spreads. So, not $2 wide on SPY, but maybe $5 wide. Thus, you would make a "synthetic" strangle, practicaly you have a short leg and a protective cheap wing... Like Tony from Mexico does on SPX, his spreads are 50 points wide.

Now I am doing 20 points wide on /ES futures options, but I plan to go wider. Wider spreads -> higher POP.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #9,169
  • Jun 22, 2015 12:28pm Jun 22, 2015 12:28pm
Quoting StrayDog
Wider spreads -> higher POP.
wider spreads eat more margin, though, .....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,170
  • Jun 22, 2015 6:19pm Jun 22, 2015 6:19pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Strangles DO it up a margin, especially on indices. The solution could be trading the wide spreads. So, not $2 wide on SPY, but maybe $5 wide. Thus, you would make a "synthetic" strangle, practicaly you have a short leg and a protective cheap wing... Like Tony from Mexico does on SPX, his spreads are 50 points wide. Now I am doing 20 points wide on /ES futures options, but I plan to go wider. Wider spreads -> higher POP.
I always diddle with spreads, checking out various setups, but never thought of going that far out, probably because it will eat more margin ... . Seems to me you should go out as far as you can tolerate on the longs. I'll play with 3 wide for a bit and see how that looks when I try to put on a SPY IC on a weekly basis 45 days out ... . Naturally, the number of contracts I go in for will affect all that ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,171
  • Jun 22, 2015 6:26pm Jun 22, 2015 6:26pm
Quoting The Fool
for new short SPY call spreads I am holding out for a strong move towards $213.
Basically, I'm on the same page there ... . Maybe Greek developments toward the end of the week will push it ... . This makes for quick work for me today, since we aren't there yet ... . Stalled out around 212.50 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,172
  • Jun 22, 2015 9:31pm Jun 22, 2015 9:31pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Basically, I'm on the same page there ... . Maybe Greek developments toward the end of the week will push it ... . This makes for quick work for me today, since we aren't there yet ... . Stalled out around 212.50 ... .
yep, I glanced at the index charts a couple times, fiber, /ZB, oil...yawned thru a couple articles...typical Monday. I guess my default stance is I am waiting for a hot move either way to sell into....we'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,173
  • Jun 22, 2015 9:45pm Jun 22, 2015 9:45pm
snoozing I have missed some big moves: UVXY has lost 25% in the last 2 weeks - they are gonna have to start doing 10:1 revsplits on that silly thing.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,174
  • Jun 23, 2015 1:19am Jun 23, 2015 1:19am
another gap up Tuesday, we should break SPY ath this week.

(lol, be like me to turn superbull at the market top....)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,175
  • Jun 23, 2015 1:39am Jun 23, 2015 1:39am
Greece is fixed and euro support is pulled....?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,176
  • Jun 23, 2015 9:16am Jun 23, 2015 9:16am
sitting on hands, jets cooled, looking for another breakout day for US indices - if it doesn't come, I'm covered
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,177
  • Edited 10:24am Jun 23, 2015 10:06am | Edited 10:24am
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Looking at a 93% ivr I am really keen to sell some spread here. The thing is should it be IC ? seems like a wide wing IC. It could possibly be an uptrend taking a breather now, sell 44/45 put ? or it has seen it's peak at 55.19 ....

looking at the volume 50, 55 , 43, 44 seems to be the most crowded area. I am aiming July15 24DTE IC 43/44/54/55/.

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lastly just wanna let you know The Fool you never know there are people that are watching this thread closely just like I do that everyday cos this is a valuable thread , we learn from here. Think from another perspective, it could just serve as your trade log ? hehe .. my 2 cents...


placed @ .35 mark was 0.325 -> 0.3 and now 0.25 .... T_T"" chances of getting filled are getting slimmer....
  • #9,178
  • Jun 23, 2015 11:57am Jun 23, 2015 11:57am
is MCD July put options for strike 95 is a good Idea? I am expecting 2nd quarter MCD results to be bad.
  • #9,179
  • Jun 23, 2015 1:03pm Jun 23, 2015 1:03pm
Quoting charron
is MCD July put options for strike 95 is a good Idea? I am expecting 2nd quarter MCD results to be bad.
Idk, maybe - do you know the expected move? If you thought MCD was gonna crash on the ER, you could buy cheap Jun4 puts. If you want to stretch out your chances into July, you can limit your risk (but also your profit) by doing a bear put spread - maybe the Jul $95/$94.50...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,180
  • Jun 23, 2015 1:04pm Jun 23, 2015 1:04pm
Quoting nickah
lastly just wanna let you know The Fool you never know there are people that are watching this thread closely just like I do that everyday cos this is a valuable thread , we learn from here. Think from another perspective, it could just serve as your trade log ? hehe .. my 2 cents.......
thanks, Nickah - I will prolly still be posting from time to time, I'm sure....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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