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Silent Service Method

  • #15,301
  • Jun 12, 2015 8:28pm Jun 12, 2015 8:28pm
USD/SEK....

Here is one I am watching at the moment, the US Dollar / Swedish Krona pair. I think that there are a lot of things worth noticing at the moment. The uptrend line has been broken on the daily chart, and the 8.15 support level has been touched. I think that the fact we formed a "shooting star" at this level shows that the buyers simply do not have much in the way of conviction at the moment. On top of that, we even tried to break above the uptrend line that was broken, something that markets will try to do a lot of the time. The fact that it failed can lead to a trend change.

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However, there are a couple of other things that I am paying attention to that make this a possibility as well. The USD/NOK pair has recently done the same thing, and the Scandinavian currencies tend to move in the same way a lot of the time. Also, looking at the weekly and monthly charts.....you can see just how overextended we are. This is especially obvious on the monthly chart, as the pair is now at the upper part of the range that this pair tends to trade in.

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Its worth a thought if nothing else....

Chris
  • #15,302
  • Jun 13, 2015 5:38pm Jun 13, 2015 5:38pm
Quoting clockwork71
{quote} Sorry mate, I meant to reply to this previously, but with full time school, full time work, and no raising my two boys a majority of the time on my own.....time is a precious commodity. Anyway, I find that the more I trade, the less I trade if that makes sense. The longer-term charts continue to be the guidepost that I follow, with the major support and resistance levels being the most important part of it all. If you have enough pairs to trade - even looking for the most major levels will give you enough trades. However, there is something...

Thanks for answering CW and thanks again for sharing your knowledge.

Some of my SL could be close to 200 pips, but always risking 1% in my case. But is alright if sometimes using 4H could be maybe 60 pip SL? Of course i always risk 1% no matter what.
I opened 3 trades this month of June so far trading this way and i would like your opinion of rather i am on the good way or the wrong way. I'll post the charts below.

AUDUSD - Win 2,3%
EURJPY +60 pip
EURCAD +180 pip

AUDUSD

Weekly Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Daily Chart
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H4 Chart
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EURCAD

Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad W1.png Size: 47 KB


Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Eurcad d1.png Size: 71 KB


EURJPY

Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY W1.png Size: 46 KB


Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Would you do any of this trades?

Any advice??

Thanks for everything!!

Guillermo.
  • #15,303
  • Jun 13, 2015 6:52pm Jun 13, 2015 6:52pm
With those AUD trades, I like the idea of shorting as it goes with the longer-term trend. I personally only trade counter trend about a handful of times in a year. I see why you did the trade based upon a bounce, but in general I don't do it. The EUR/CAD is interesting to me mainly because we aren't too far from a potential reversal of trend in my opinion. (Off the top of my head, I think it is 1.40 that I have decided changes everything.....)

I think it comes down to your outlook on the markets as far as time frames.

One thing I want you (all of you) to do is make sure that you are investing in other places as well. Forex isn't everything, and I think that a certain amount of your trading should be investing in something as mundane as an index fund. I think you should look at the financial instruments as gears in a car. Some are more slow and respond as such, while others are faster. Think of the index fund as 5th gear, for cruising along the highway and traveling long distances. This is the trade(s) and investment(s) that get you to the promised land, but the extra "boosts" along the way for added potential. For example, if Forex is 20% of your portfolio, then is can be the catalyst for massive gains, but only in spurts from time to time. The longer-term investments will smooth out your equity curve.

I cannot stress enough how important it is to have your hand in several pots at the same time......at the end of the day, we are trying to make money. DON'T get hung up on the whole currency trader thing. You need to be a trader in general. This can be stocks, index funds, futures, real estate, and even just swap meets. Life is full of opportunities, and as a trader you need to recognize them. Ultimately, that's your job.
  • #15,304
  • Jun 14, 2015 7:31pm Jun 14, 2015 7:31pm
I got the message CW. I use FXPro and it offers a few interesting things to trade. Which broker/s do you recommend to trade all markets?

I got a chart of Futures NASDAQ 100-mini. What do you think??



WEEKLY
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DAILY
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  • #15,305
  • Jun 15, 2015 10:19am Jun 15, 2015 10:19am
As a Swede I have to say that I agree with your view on the SEK weakness probably having peaked. Though God only knows what will happen if Greece is forced out of the eurozone which is what seems to be more and more likely to occur.

I'm brazing myself for that possibility...
  • #15,306
  • Jun 15, 2015 9:59pm Jun 15, 2015 9:59pm
Quoting o990l6mh
As a Swede I have to say that I agree with your view on the SEK weakness probably having peaked. Though God only knows what will happen if Greece is forced out of the eurozone which is what seems to be more and more likely to occur. I'm brazing myself for that possibility...
At the end of the day, most currencies move in massive ranges that last years......the USD/SEK isn't going to be any different. The real question is whether or not you can handle the volatility, and be patient enough. THAT is why the larger funds usually are at 10-1 leverage......

Chris
  • #15,307
  • Jun 17, 2015 2:33pm Jun 17, 2015 2:33pm
If we can close about 30 pips or more above 1.58, I will be buying this pair: GBP/USD. I already had my people buying GBP/AUD yesterday.....

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  • #15,308
  • Jun 20, 2015 12:08pm Jun 20, 2015 12:08pm
So it appears that the GBP is breaking out after all. This is now one of my favorite currencies, as I see it doing quite well against most other currencies in the world. GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD, etc.......love owning the Pound.

With that being said, remember that stocks and currencies tend to move in opposite directions. I am avoiding anything related to the FTSE, although it will probably go higher - just not as fast as other indices. I am also a proponent of US stocks, as I think the US dollar has basically topped out in general. Stock traders only worry about the USD getting cheaper, and with the strong move we have had in the stock markets with a strengthening USD - we could see the US markets move even faster to the upside.......

With that being said, this is my take on the US Dollar Index.....

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  • #15,309
  • Jun 20, 2015 12:15pm Jun 20, 2015 12:15pm
Continuing with the last post, I think this will possibly lead to several things happening.....

The WTI Crude Oil markets will go much higher. I think they are trying to break it out anyway, and this would be the excuse we have needed.

The US Stock markets will continue to go higher. The NASDAQ has already broken out, and the other indices will follow.

The gold markets, as well as silver, will go higher. The gold markets will continue to strengthen more than silver, because silver has too much of an industrial component to the price. Other options to actual gold will be CFDs, the GLD ETF, and possibly some gold miners in the stock market. (My least favorite trade of them.)

The EUR/USD will absolutely check the hell out. We will go above the 1.15 level, and the longer-term trade in EUR/USD will be to buy and hold, and add to the position on dips.

GBP/USD? See the last statement.
  • #15,310
  • Jun 21, 2015 3:33am Jun 21, 2015 3:33am
Quoting clockwork71
Continuing with the last post, I think this will possibly lead to several things happening..... The WTI Crude Oil markets will go much higher. I think they are trying to break it out anyway, and this would be the excuse we have needed. The US Stock markets will continue to go higher. The NASDAQ has already broken out, and the other indices will follow. The gold markets, as well as silver, will go higher. The gold markets will continue to strengthen more than silver, because silver has too much of an industrial component to the price. Other options...
Not sure about the EU being a buy and hold Chris - with all thats going on in Greece atm
Free speech is an oxymoron
  • #15,311
  • Jun 21, 2015 3:56am Jun 21, 2015 3:56am
Quoting clockwork71
So it appears that the GBP is breaking out after all. This is now one of my favorite currencies, as I see it doing quite well against most other currencies in the world. GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD, etc.......love owning the Pound. With that being said, remember that stocks and currencies tend to move in opposite directions. I am avoiding anything related to the FTSE, although it will probably go higher - just not as fast as other indices. I am also a proponent of US stocks, as I think the US dollar has basically topped out in general. Stock traders only worry...
>> GOOD Stuff Clock Work.. look forward your thoughts... on GBP pairs..
  • #15,312
  • Jun 21, 2015 2:12pm Jun 21, 2015 2:12pm
Chris, I have to say I agree with your views. I stopped trying to analyze or guess what will happen and just trade what actually does happen, but if I were to guess I'd say you're likely right!
  • #15,313
  • Jun 21, 2015 7:43pm Jun 21, 2015 7:43pm
Quoting danc
{quote} >> GOOD Stuff Clock Work.. look forward your thoughts... on GBP pairs..

I know exactly what you mean. But I will be honest here: I have been burned more than once by trying to think the Euro will go down for any real length of time. However, you bring up a great point in the sense that we shouldn't be leveraging the EUR right now. I would start small, and build up as I was proven right......

Chris
  • #15,314
  • Jun 21, 2015 8:42pm Jun 21, 2015 8:42pm
The above post was in reference to the concerns about going long the EUR.....oops. Sorry, its been a minute. :-)
  • #15,315
  • Jun 23, 2015 8:17am Jun 23, 2015 8:17am
Trade I will be initiating today in my longer-term account: EWI

It is an ETF that follows Italy, and the MIB Index.

please keep in mind that this is a "buy and hold" trade. I will being holding onto this for at least a year, and probably several. I think the European indices all look ready to break out to the upside longer-term, and Italy is a real mover. I fully anticipate doubling my money in this one, but I don't know - or care - how long it takes. This isn't leveraged, so I have that luxury.

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  • #15,316
  • Jun 23, 2015 8:20am Jun 23, 2015 8:20am
Further update on the GBP.....

Below is the GBP/USD pair. I think that as long as we can hold 1.57, things should still be good. However, I am not willing to sell until we get below the 1.55 level as marked on the chart. Looking at the way the market has reacted to 1.57, (red line) you can see why I think there could still be buyers in the area. Below is the weekly chart....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,317
  • Jun 23, 2015 8:22am Jun 23, 2015 8:22am
Meanwhile......GBP/CHF looks completely different. We have broken out of a significant rectangle.

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  • #15,318
  • Jun 23, 2015 9:32am Jun 23, 2015 9:32am
Is the EUR/USD pair getting ready to bounce? Probably.....the buyers have been tenacious.

4 hour chart:

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  • #15,319
  • Jun 23, 2015 9:37am Jun 23, 2015 9:37am
I was checking the exact same thing on EURUSD, my weekly zone is just a bit lower but the 4H candle is touching it.

But isn't the weekly trend going down?
  • #15,320
  • Jun 23, 2015 10:38am Jun 23, 2015 10:38am
Quoting guiyee
I was checking the exact same thing on EURUSD, my weekly zone is just a bit lower but the 4H candle is touching it. But isn't the weekly trend going down?

As far as the zone, I just threw that up there. However, in general I think the EUR is WAY WAY WAY undervalued at the moment. Take a look at 1.15 on your longer-term charts. I think that is a major breakout when it happens. Also, I like the shorter-term trendline on the chart, and the 1.10 level to offer support. I will predict the future here: Greece will reach a short-term deal, and we will have a nice rally.

You also have to ask this: Who is left to sell?
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