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Hedge Fund Styles Trading - Long and Short Term Setups

  • #61
  • Jun 18, 2015 2:31pm Jun 18, 2015 2:31pm
Quoting dennis4u15
Hi Jay I mostly trade daily TF and my daily candle closes around 0.00 US EST...that's 4pm my time(New Zealand)...Oanda is the broker I trade with. So my daily candle closes afternoon session of asia...not ideal I know... have been with Oanda for a while so don't feel like changing..the best daily candle close would be end of NY session...but if there is momentum i.e. I buy after a solid bullish candle is printed at daily close and sell when a solid bearish candle is printed after daily close. Its that simple. I do look at weekly and monthly High...
Hi Dennis,

I find it very difficult as a trader to trade solely on the Daily Chart, and I think that you deserve some props for doing that Mate. I have tried it before, and I know some traders out there, but the idea of having a negative RISK: Reward Ratio is not cool to me at all... I do not understand why someone wants to risk -100pips or more, just to make +60pips....

On the other hand, if you truly are dedicated and focused only on Daily TimeFrame Setups, I think that I can create a special System/Template for you, and to be honest, you won't need to scan the Market everyday looking for opportunities at all, once you find an opportunity; you will simply need to add positions daily and manage your stop-loss until it reaches profit Target...I am talking about a month or 2 later to finally close those positions. Is that something you might be interested in?

By the way, you have mentioned something about News trading again, I can understand your concern on how fast this thing can go the moment the news is out...Guess what? The move is accelerated simply because the Road has been established ahead of time, and it's never a random move...The question is: Does anyone have the ability to foresee the Trajectory of that move? Not 100% but the answer is "YES".

When you have done your analysis and predict that the market is going to test a certain level of Resistance or Support, the market will eventually get there, but the News is pushing it a lot faster to get there...

Recently, I have done my analysis on USD/JPY monthly Chart, I came up with the conclusion that Price Action will test 132-134 Level by the end of this year....As a newbie Trader, I would get so excited and telling people that I am going to be RICH by the end of this year because USD/JPY is going UP, and UP. And, that's a 1,000+ pips!!!

NO-NO That's a really really bad Mindset, and I used to get caught up on that mentality as a Technical Trader. There's a big difference between a Predictor Trader and a Follower Trader aka "a Smart Trader"... Now, as a Smart Trader, your job is to do a lot of research on Fundamental Events or Economic Data that are going to be in Harmony to support your case for a LONG DOLLAR.... What if all of a sudden, the News are becoming Negative... Guess what? If we getting ready for the collapse of the Dollar, I do have a Target for that as well...After all, News Trading is very crucial for anyone's success in this game....Don't ever let it become one of your weakest links.
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #62
  • Jun 18, 2015 2:54pm Jun 18, 2015 2:54pm
Quoting OctaveJay509
Hello Gangs, The title might be a bit over the top, but there's a good REASON for it...Like most of us in this Forum, I am very certain that we do have Small Trading Accounts, and would like to GROW that Account over time, and have less pressure to trade this Market in a daily basis.... So, having a mindset of a Hedge Fund Manager gives you the ability to trade the Market with calmness and have no worries about trading to pay your monthly bills or take your friends out to dinner. With this concept and the way I approach the Market, you will have...
Great thread bro, i am doing something similar. Will read through your thread when i am free. Keep up te good work
  • #63
  • Jun 18, 2015 3:46pm Jun 18, 2015 3:46pm
FOMC Statement was a disaster (too much hype leading to it) , and I was very disappointed by their
Dovishness Language...I try not to understand all the rhetoric but I know those people are a bunch
of liars...They clearly know what they are doing, and it makes me think that the U.S Economy is really not
that GOOD. Who knows, they might cook the Numbers!

I have a feeling, and I think that the only reason why the USD Dollar has been UP and UP, is because
of YEN Weakness, and somebody needs to put those Japanese officials in Jail for purposely destroying
their Currency tho....

Enough with the non-sense. LOL!! I was so pissed last night, and I decided not to Trade USD/JPY even
though I had a clear signal to Go SHORT.....Instead I opened 4 Long Trades:

* EUR/USD - Closed out with +52.8pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 175 KB


*GBP/USD - Closed out with +80.9pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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*AUD/CHF - Closed out with + 68.6pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 177 KB


*USD/CHF - Stopped out with -30.6pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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An angry Trader made +200pips Overnight is really not that Bad...I will take that any day.....

While I was going through my Chart this morning, I noticed that USD/JPY might still go Further DOWN,
but the only problem is we do have some Major JPY News later tonight, it might change the Landscape.
Well, since I already opened a SHORT position, there's really nothing I can do at this point....

I am going to let it stop me out if it wants to, and I will find a better Short Entry Next week or Maybe Friday if I feel like it.

USD/JPY - 4 Hourly Chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot5.png Size: 183 KB


Note: I don't like trading on Fridays, but If I am up that morning, I might do some scalping for the first 3 hours around 9:00amCST
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #64
  • Jun 18, 2015 4:03pm Jun 18, 2015 4:03pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Great thread bro, i am doing something similar. Will read through your thread when i am free. Keep up te good work
Hey Mate,

I really appreciate you stopping by, and it means alot....I was at your thread a few minutes ago, and I think that you are doing something great...Position trading is really interesting, and I can't wait to start implementing this concept when raising money through the market to grow my account is not a concern anymore...

Wish you all the best, and I look forward to learning from you!

Kind Regards,

Jay
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #65
  • Jun 18, 2015 7:31pm Jun 18, 2015 7:31pm
This Article was published on June 10th, 2015

UPDATE 1-NZ central bank cuts rates, sees chance of more easing:

New Zealand's central bank cut its benchmark cash rate for the first time four years on Thursday
and kept the door open to more easing as it expects demand to weaken, sending the New
Zealand dollar tumbling to its lowest in almost five years.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate (OCR) to 3.25 percent, its first
easing since March 2011, surprising many economists who had expected rates on hold despite
stubbornly low inflation. Read more Here:

A few Hours ago, I stumbled upon this New Article:

Rate CUT Done Deal, Experts say:

A second interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank next month is now a done deal, economists believe,
and a third is increasingly on the cards before the year is out, after the economy recorded its
weakest quarterly growth for two years. More Reading Here:

I have learned a long time ago, when you are trading along side with the Banks, you should have no
FEAR, all you have to do is Manage your positions and get small profits at a time...

I quickly decided to take a look at NZD/USD monthly chart, and I was very surprised to see
Massive Opportunities all over the Place.... Since I have been trading Weak Currencies lately. I figured
that you guys deserve to know what I am doing....

NZD/USD has no Intention to go UP at all, but I do expect small Bullish Pullbacks from time to time:

Here's the Monthly Chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Now, this might be RISKY for some, but I opened a few positions already, and will add more later next
week, because the BEARISH MOMENTUM on NZD and AUD currencies are going to last for quite some
time, and it's only FAIR to take advantage of the Market at this Point.

Note: Do your own Analysis and create a story that fits your trading style before pulling the Trigger... I
will be doing more research soon, but for now I have:

*AUD/CHF SHORT Trade

*AUD/CAD SHORT Trade

*AUD/USD SHORT Trade

*NZD/USD SHORT Trade

By the way, you don't want to risk too much on AUD pairs, just trade one or 2....

AUD/NZD and GBP/NZD are too risky, I will Day-trade them instead.
NZD---- RBNZ Statement / Official Cash Rate (is July 22nd, 2015)
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #66
  • Jun 18, 2015 9:08pm Jun 18, 2015 9:08pm
Hi Jay,


Congrats on your 200pips gain..thats awesome mate. I did not place any trade as I was not sure of which way the price may go. Its just amazing to see that you were so confident about the direction of the moves.. as u had said that the road was established ahead of time and you just followed the trail...awesome brother..yeah would love to understand and get to know how you see these roads ahead of time and get on the right side of News trading..so keep me posted...yes I would love to have that template/system of day trading u were talking about.

Thanks again

Regards
Dennis
  • #67
  • Jun 19, 2015 6:39pm Jun 19, 2015 6:39pm
Quoting dennis4u15
Hi Jay, Congrats on your 200pips gain..thats awesome mate. I did not place any trade as I was not sure of which way the price may go. Its just amazing to see that you were so confident about the direction of the moves.. as u had said that the road was established ahead of time and you just followed the trail...awesome brother..yeah would love to understand and get to know how you see these roads ahead of time and get on the right side of News trading..so keep me posted...yes I would love to have that template/system of day trading u were talking...
Hey Dennis,

Thanks a lot Mate, and I really appreciate the compliment...Funny thing is between Sunday Night and Monday, I lost close to -150pips, and Tuesday Night, I made it back and some, and that Wednesday night after FOMC, I made that huge +200pips....This is a Daily Grind, and I know that I can do much better tho...

The template is going to be very simple, easy to use. And I try to make it fit your Trading Style since you like to trade only the Daily Chart mate.
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #68
  • Jun 19, 2015 7:11pm Jun 19, 2015 7:11pm
Remember those quotes:

" Fall in Love with the PROCESS, and the RESULTS will come"
" SUCCESS is a Process, A Quality of Mind, And a way of BEING......"


Technical Analysis ( Method and Strategies )

How to Find Great Setups ( Daily Routine)

Step#1. - Go to your MT4 Platform and Scan the Market on Daily Time-Frame.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Step#2. - Identify Bearish Divergence and Bullish Divergence.
Attached Image

Attached Image


Step#3.- Create a Potential Watchlist for All of them and Pick Only 8 Currency Pairs.

Step#4. - Identify Prior Day's Low and High, then Draw a Horizontal Line between Top and Bottom.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 142 KB


Step#5.- Go to your M15TF, then Draw your Fibonacci Levels
(Note: If Prior Candle is Bearish, Start from Low to High/ If Prior Candle is Bullish, Start from High to Low)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 158 KB


There are 2 things that I want you to notice:

#1 - The fact that the Daily Chart has a Massive Bearish Divergence, it gives you an edge to Focus only
on Sell Trades.

#2- Since you are going to look for Opportunities everyday, you need to consider that some daily
candles are going to be Bullish, and you don't have to trade if your Market Bias Stays Bearish for the time being.
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #69
  • Jun 19, 2015 7:42pm Jun 19, 2015 7:42pm
How to Plan a TRADE and Trade a PLAN

1. - Identify the Overall Market Trend or Market Sentiment
(Multi-TimeFrame Trend Explorer Indi gives you RED=Bearish / White = Bullish)
D1=H4=M30=M15 = All Red for Strong Bearish /All White for Strong Bullish

Bearish Momentum Market:
Attached Image


Bullish Momentum Market:
Attached Image



2. - Use a Specific Strategy for Entries
(Harmonic Patterns; Breakout Technique; SMA(50) Line; Counter-TrendLine Break; Candlestick Patterns and So on....)


3.- Use Risk:Reward Ratio for Exit or Take Profit Target (1:1 or 1:2 or 1:3)
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #70
  • Jun 19, 2015 8:01pm Jun 19, 2015 8:01pm
Rules of Engagement for Long/Short Trades


Trade Only BuySignal Alert

1.- Market Sentiment ( Only Bullish if H4=M30=M15 = All White).
2. Price Action is Trading Above MegaTrend Line.
3. MegaTrend Line is BLUE.
4. Deep Bar Indicator is BLUE (This Indi is designed to Initiate TrendChange)
5.- Use the Blue Arrow Signal Alert as your BuyEntry Trigger.- SL is at Lowest Low (10pip Below SL)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LongTradeOnly.png Size: 20 KB


Trade Only SellSignal Alert

1.- Market Sentiment ( Only Bearish if H4=M30=M15 = All Red).
2. Price Action is Trading Below MegaTrend Line.
3. MegaTrend Line is RED.
4. Deep Bar Indicator is RED (This Indi is designed to Initiate TrendChange)
5.- Use the Red Arrow Signal Alert as your SellEntry Trigger.- SL is at Highest High (5pip Above RL)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ShortTradeOnly.png Size: 34 KB
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #71
  • Jun 19, 2015 8:13pm Jun 19, 2015 8:13pm
Hi Jay

was just reading ur last two posts..could u please have a look at the chart and see if I got it right???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYM30.png Size: 55 KB
  • #72
  • Jun 19, 2015 8:36pm Jun 19, 2015 8:36pm
Fundamental Analysis (Major News Events and Terminologies)


DOVISH = Low Interest Rates = Focus Only on Sell Trade Setups for that Currency Market.

Definition: Describing a Statement from the Federal Reserve indicating that it may lower Interest Rates. The Statement is called “Dovish” because it indicates that the Fed does not believe that the Inflation Rate is High Enough to warrant Concern.

HAWKISH = High Interest Rates = Focus Only on Buy Trade Setups for that Currency Market.

Definition: Describing a Statement from the Federal Reserve indicating that it may raise Interest Rates. The Statement is called “Hawkish” because it indicates that the Fed believes that the Inflation Rate is High Enough to warrant concern.

ForexFactory Daily Calendar (Look for them News from time to time )

1.- Impact News for EUR Currency:

German Prelim CPI m/m
Spanish Manufacturing PMI
CPI Flash Estimate / Core CPI
Minimum Bid Rate
ECB Press Conference
Mario Draghi Speaks
Trade Balance
Retail Sales / Core Retail Sales

2.- Impact News for GBP Currency:

U.K Manufacturing PMI
U.K Construction PMI
Current Account
Retail Sales / Core Retail Sales
Trade Balance
Official Bank Rate
Building Permits
BOE Press Conference

3.- Impact News for AUD Currency:

Cash Rate
RBA Rate Statement
GDP q/q (every quarter)
Trade Balance
Retail Sales / Core Retail Sales
RBA Gov. Stevens Speaks
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


4.- Impact News for USD Currency:

ISM Manufacturing PMI
Trade Balance
Retail Sales / Core Retail Sales
CPI (Consumer Price Index )
FOMC Statement
Federal Funds Rate
FOMC Press Conference
Unemployment Claims /Unemployment Change / Employment Rate
Non-Farm Payroll
Average Hourly Earnings
Building Permits


5.- Impact News for NZD Currency:

GDT Price Index (something related to Milk Price Index)
Official Cash Rate ( Big News)
RBNZ Rate Statement
RBNZ Press Conference
RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

6.- Impact News for CHF Currency:
Retail Sales
PPI
SNB Press Conference
Trade Balance
Libor Rate ( Big News)
SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

7.- Impact News for CAD Currency:
Ivey PMI
Unemployment Change
Unemployment Rate
Building Permits
BOC Press Conference
Retail Sales / Core Retail Sales
CPI
Core CPI

8.- Impact News for JPY Currency:
JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Trade Balance
BOJ Press Conference
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #73
  • Jun 19, 2015 8:39pm Jun 19, 2015 8:39pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZDM15.png Size: 39 KB
  • #74
  • Edited 9:17pm Jun 19, 2015 8:45pm | Edited 9:17pm
Quoting dennis4u15
Hi Jay was just reading ur last two posts..could u please have a look at the chart and see if I got it right??? {image}
Almost got it Mate.....

It looks like some of the parameters have changed

BuySellpoints indi ----
Colors : 0=Red ; 1 = Blue and Width = 2 ( on both of them )
Inputs : Risk : 11 (Less trigger signal is better for you)

Deep Bar Indicator ------
Colors: 4=Blue ; 5=Red and witdth = 2 (on both of them)
Inputs : Length: 28 or 33 (Less Trigger signal is better for you)

Knoxville Divergence Indi----
Colors - witdth is about 2 ( on all of them expect 2 and 2 has it for 1)

Megatrend line needs to be 50 or 55. It represents the SMA(50) line as well. So, you don't need that
extra Simple Moving Average there.
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #75
  • Jun 19, 2015 8:52pm Jun 19, 2015 8:52pm
Quoting dennis4u15
{image}
This one looks a lot better....By the way, I like to have my candlesticks very small so that I can have
as much data on my Screen... It helps me alot to get the proper levels when applying Fibonacci on
my Chart....

Keep in mind, if you are going to use Heiken Ashi on your Chart, you really don't need the extra
Grab Candles Long and Short.... The Clearer the Chart is the Better.....
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #76
  • Jun 19, 2015 9:07pm Jun 19, 2015 9:07pm
Hey Gangs,

The Process that I go through before Placing a Trade might be Overwhelming for some people, but I am
telling you if you start enjoying the Process, it will becoming Second Nature to you and you won't have
to think about it at all....

You can use as many templates/Systems you want, but at the end of the day, you gotta ask yourself
3 questions:

1- What's the Current Trend of this Pair or the Market?
2- Where's the best Place to find an Entry so that I can avoid risking too much?
3- Where's the best Place to get Out so that I can Increase Equity over time?


Very Important:

You might not believe this, but YOU ARE the HOLY GRAIL that you have been Looking for for quite some time,
all you have to do now is to educate yourself about Fundamental Analysis, have a Proper Knowledge on
Market Structure, Learn How to properly use Fibonacci tool, and the rest will be History.

Have a Great Weekend and I will see you all on Monday for more News Trading Setups!
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #77
  • Jun 20, 2015 5:28am Jun 20, 2015 5:28am
Quoting OctaveJay509
Remember those quotes: " Fall in Love with the PROCESS, and the RESULTS will come" " SUCCESS is a Process, A Quality of Mind, And a way of BEING......" Technical Analysis ( Method and Strategies ) How to Find Great Setups ( Daily Routine) Step#1. - Go to your MT4 Platform and Scan the Market on Daily Time-Frame. {image} Step#2. - Identify Bearish Divergence and Bullish Divergence. {image} {image} Step#3.- Create a Potential Watchlist for All of them and Pick Only 8 Currency Pairs. Step#4. - Identify Prior Day's Low and High, then Draw a Horizontal...
OctaveJay,

Very nice explanation of system. Specially to find HTF trend and which side need to trend today otherwise no trade......... That is the best way to minimisethe losses.

Thanks for your efforts to putting system here in easy steps.

MKFX
  • #78
  • Jun 20, 2015 12:38pm Jun 20, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting mkfx
{quote} OctaveJay, Very nice explanation of system. Specially to find HTF trend and which side need to trend today otherwise no trade......... That is the best way to minimisethe losses. Thanks for your efforts to putting system here in easy steps. MKFX
Thanks very much mate....I really appreciate your observation on the simplicity of this system....It takes a lot of work from my part to simplify it...I have tested countless systems and methods, and this by far is one of the most profitable system because it involved all 3 major components on a such a way that I have never seen before...YOU (the Trader), Enough Technical Analysis to even call yourself a Technician, and Enough Fundamental Analysis to call yourself an Analyst.

I do believe in the natural order of things, and the Market sometimes gives us the impression that its moves are Random, but in reality they are not if you know what you are looking for; and I had to create this system...Like they say "You cannot see the FOREST through the Trees", so you have to step back and look at the Big Picture. In order words, Higher Time Frame gives us the ability to see the Bigger Picture.
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #79
  • Jun 21, 2015 12:03pm Jun 21, 2015 12:03pm
To an onlooker such as myself you are doing great.

I'd love to hear if you also correlate t-bonds and other significant equity indices to your analysis?
  • #80
  • Jun 21, 2015 12:46pm Jun 21, 2015 12:46pm
Hey Gangs,

The weekly Calendar (June 21st -June 26th, 2015) is very light, and I will not post any upcoming
Daily Calendar Updates, instead I will be looking for Daily Opportunities....

Keep your eyes open on: EUR/USD - GBP/USD - USD/JPY
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
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