EURCAD
Thanks to Ephisi for bringing this to my attention. The weekly shows that EURCAD went under the long term averages during the tail-end of 2015 and the recent retrace to 14000 has a failure and move below last week's close indicating further downside and perhaps even confirming the new downtrend.
The safer trade would be to short any weakness against this week's OPEN of 13834... and you can have 2 targets: Bollinger Mid at 13669 or 13135 which are the old lows. A break of those old lows would be a definite confirmation or continuation of the downtrend.
Interestingly, on the 4H, that test of the week's open has happened in favour of longs today. Which is interesting.... is it pump and dump? Perhaps. It also coincided with the 100EMA.... so that would be the trade trigger for me. Short Order below 13834... we'll give it 5 pips below that.
EDIT:
Just looked at the Daily... I can see that the mean-reversion is going to happen and we'll see a retest of the highs. This will produce a COBB on the TOP side which, if it fails/rejects will form the perfect set of tops for an impulse move. I won't be shorting on that basis (in this strategy), I will be entering on the reaction to that impulse if it does occur. Early price projections show 12919 as a target off a break to the low side.
Thanks to Ephisi for bringing this to my attention. The weekly shows that EURCAD went under the long term averages during the tail-end of 2015 and the recent retrace to 14000 has a failure and move below last week's close indicating further downside and perhaps even confirming the new downtrend.
The safer trade would be to short any weakness against this week's OPEN of 13834... and you can have 2 targets: Bollinger Mid at 13669 or 13135 which are the old lows. A break of those old lows would be a definite confirmation or continuation of the downtrend.
Interestingly, on the 4H, that test of the week's open has happened in favour of longs today. Which is interesting.... is it pump and dump? Perhaps. It also coincided with the 100EMA.... so that would be the trade trigger for me. Short Order below 13834... we'll give it 5 pips below that.
EDIT:
Just looked at the Daily... I can see that the mean-reversion is going to happen and we'll see a retest of the highs. This will produce a COBB on the TOP side which, if it fails/rejects will form the perfect set of tops for an impulse move. I won't be shorting on that basis (in this strategy), I will be entering on the reaction to that impulse if it does occur. Early price projections show 12919 as a target off a break to the low side.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it