Spider's Den

I grabbed 20 pips

NZDUSD could still be short on rallies. Go for it. Its a no brainer trade now

Do not know hor to describe it exactly at the moment,
but following my simply Chart picture i think there is much to earn
playing it back and forth..

Of course it depends how and what time frame you trade but...

It has hit 0.6950 as suggested. Now we need a clear break below to further tank the pair down to sub 0.69 levels

NZDUSD has reached the target as I analyzed Today we can see a regular bullish divergence in play, but judging from bot TECHNICAL and FUNDAMENTAL alignment in the pair we could try to FADE a potential bullish retracement. First POC ( H3, 23.6 ) around 0.7010 zone could reject the price initially but in the case of deeper retracement i am paying attention to 0.7060-7080 zone ( H5, 50.0, previous swing high/low) and rejections should target 0.6900-0.6875.

+30 pips possible from first POC rejection

dont you think the gap will be closed on a short term period? (cant define it for obvious reasons)... it "screams"

Hmm , not at this moment. As you could see we are having another rejection from POC

Pay attention to 1.1200 ( break of it leads to 1.1170 then 1.1085 and 1.0950 ) and 1.1335. It is the main range now. Only a break above 1.1335 will target 1.1425. I am still bearish as 1.1470 is strong resistance. The pair m is being governed by Greece negotiations.

Sentiment toward Europe is changing dramatically, US still trending upwards. Its technological and industrial leadership its growing at good pace. Let's learn to trade below 1 in the near future, unless Europeans shall recover its beat.

I agree with you but definitely we have been witnessing a see saw action on EURUSD. A friend of mine yesterday sent me the following article:

When the sell-off in German Bunds first got going, it looked like a temporary squeeze, with the largest position in the market the ECB QE trade coming under pressure after much weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP on Apr. 29 (Exhibit 1). At the time, we argued that the weak activity reading rattled a market that had been operating on a core thesis of strong US growth. The resulting uncertainty caused Bund yields and EUR/$ to rise, with the DAX also selling off on the day. Since then, something more ominous has come into play. One clue has been the communications ping pong from the ECB. On May 18, Executive Board member Coeure said the rapidity of the reversal in Bund yields is worrisome, citing it as another example of extreme volatility in global capital markets. ECB President Draghi sent the opposite message on Jun. 3, saying one lesson is that we should get used to periods of higher volatility, followed on Jun. 10 by Executive Board member Coeure stating that the ECB does not intend to counter [Bund] volatility in the short term. We took a dim view of all this in our last FX Views, even if a charitable interpretation is that President Draghi basically sent a dovish message on Jun.10 and simply didnt want to signal "activism" in the face of short-term volatility. After all, one goal of ECB QE ought to be to make Europes safe haven asset (Bunds) expensive, so that investors get pushed into risky assets like equities and the Euro periphery. If there is ambivalence, it sends a harmful message to markets that, after all, are still new to ECB QE. This might be one reason why EUR/$ has held up (Exhibit 2), even as US data (payrolls, retail sales) have picked up. In this FX Views, we show that the Bundesbank has reduced the weighted-average maturity of its Bund purchases from 8.1 years in March to 5.7 in May, in contrast to the Eurosystem as a whole where this number has stayed around 8.0 years. There is thus something more than supply dynamics or ECB communications going on, something that has the potential to undercut the credibility of ECB QE. It remains our view that fundamentals will ultimately take EUR/$ lower in line with our forecast. That said, we see recent Bund volatility and what it means for the credibility of ECB QE as the first material challenge to our view.
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> 2. The ECB publishes monthly data for the outstanding stock of bonds bought under its QE program, together with a weighted average for the corresponding number of years to maturity. We use these data to calculate the average maturity of monthly buying by the Eurosystem (Exhibit 3). This shows that the average maturity of ECB bond buying is around 8.0 years, in line with what Executive Board member Coeure said in his May 18 speech. However, while Italy and Spain see purchases that have an average maturity above that of the outstanding debt stock, Bundesbank buying has fallen short from the very beginning. In fact, weighted-average maturity has been falling from 8.1 years in March to 7.7 in April and 5.7 in May. There are obviously many explanations for what is going on. But this kind of signal from the key hawk in the Eurosystem has the potential to undercut the credibility of ECB QE, since it weakens the portfolio balance channel. After all, it was supposed to be low yields in core Europe into risk assets. If those yields now rise and become more volatile, such portfolio effects will be lessened. Our view is that the recent divergence of Bundesbank buying is temporary, in particular given that inflation is likely to remain low for a prolonged period, as we argue next.
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> 3. Our EUR/$ down view hangs on fundamentals. Here, our view is that the growth crisis in the Euro zone means that inflation will be slower to pick up than during a normal cycle, in line with projections from our European team that show HICP inflation reverting back to target only slowly. The reason for this is that structural reforms on the periphery (in labor and product markets) may hold down inflation for a given level of the output gap, which could reflect the Phillips curve shifting down. Exhibit 4 shows some evidence for this, where the horizontal axis gives the unemployment gap we use an eight year moving average to proxy for structural unemployment, which puts that around 10 percent currently, in line with our European team estimates and core HICP inflation is on the vertical axis. Core inflation since early 2014 has shifted down for a given unemployment gap. This picture is most pronounced for Spain (Exhibit 5), where labor market reforms are arguably most advanced. There are obvious important caveats here, notably that the Euro zone is not a unified labor market. That said, this analysis points to low inflation in the Euro zone remaining a formidable challenge, which gives us confidence in our longer-term Euro down view.
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> Robin Brooks, George Cole and Michael Cahill

I always felt rather stupid reading all the articles, fundies and stuff. A lot of words, a lot of conclussion..and at the end just a confusion. Whats the effect gonna be? UP, DOWN or NONE/SIDEWAYS? They present their LT view which is nice but I wanna know where the market will be in next couple days, weeks, months. Charts tell me more. My 2c.

Yes, chart always tell us more. But still from intraday perspective EURUSD is bad for trading. I still think it should go down ( maybe after 1.1335 retest , or up to 1.1450 ) but as always- if you are not sure then dont trade it.

The article suggests a definite confusion and misalignment in technical and fundamental views so they are trying to explain the movement and re align technicals with fundies.

Not an easy task, especially if you have been trading EURUSD lately.

AUDUSD is showing a sideways action pattern but in the near term history we have seen 0.7690-0.7700 longs. If this action still persists with this pair next wave of buying could be seen again within the 0.7690 - 0.7700 zone. If 0.7736 breaks (L3, inner trendline ) AUDUSD would bounce again above the inner trend line thus making a possibility for further gains towards 0.7770 and 0.7800.
Any momentum break of 0.7675 level to the downside could expose 0.7635.

no words T thanks one more for the green pibs : )
i have my ome strategy but allways keping an eye .
slowly groing the acount 5% montly some Times more this is a long run now olmost everything is making sense 1% risk keep me calm

You are welcome! Yes we can see AUDUSD has followed us

EURUSD might be targeting 1.1412 now

just been hit.

NZDUSD has a positive correlation to EURUSD and its rallying towards near term historical sellers. Given recent RBNZ governor's comments and technical decline we can still assume that NZDUSD is bearish. Currently NZDUSD is following EURUSD strength and USDx weakness and current retracement ( loss of momentum ) could be countered around 0.6990-80. POC shows 4x time toptrend line, 78.6, Historical L3 and all that below a trend line which is holding the round number resistance ( 0.7000 ). The target could be 0.6910 which corresponds to L4 support and Higher Low trend line confluence.

Going in the right direction +50!