Let's Trade Options | Page 455 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

BELLA SYSTEM. Let's try it, let's improve it! 118 replies

Let's Trade The News V 0.4 ! 479 replies

Any Options, Bull Options & Option Bit 39 replies

Let's Trade The News! 46 replies

Let a trade develop? 17 replies

Attachments: Let's Trade Options
Exit Attachments

Let's Trade Options

  • #9,081
  • Jun 15, 2015 3:34pm Jun 15, 2015 3:34pm
Quoting The Fool
trying to get $0.30 for a Jul4 SPY $197/$195 puts @ 19 deltas....$0.30 starting to feel like my floor for these credit spreads....30c on a $2 spread is shit, but when we bounce I can IC the call side for more.....
got nothing, nothing new, par for the course for a Monday, usually too busy on Mondays to do much...a Greek deal and a dovish Fed could bring back the bulls with a vengeance, then I'll be sorry I didn't get any short put spreads on, oh well...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,082
  • Jun 15, 2015 3:49pm Jun 15, 2015 3:49pm
put through the below. With 1 day dte Instead of limit order i changed to market order. It did say accpeted at 0.45 credit ...everything including buying power were reduced but i am seeing 0 under position with new vix position populated though ... Puzzle me hmmm....as i have intentionally chose those with decent volume as shown but its still not filled ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 179 KB
  • #9,083
  • Edited 12:53am Jun 16, 2015 12:04am | Edited 12:53am
Quoting nickah
You guys are amazing. Thanks The Fool, Straydog and Zebra all the senior here a little short conversation input by you guys got me enlightened 10x more than I discover myself slowly through the net like a snail. glad to have you all sharing ideas and comment generously .. This thread is full of nutrition with uvxy up 2 dollar ish and vix up 1 dollar ish the usual suspect seller of credit spread like myself and u guys should be getting excited haha.. Back to some idea Vix is now at iv 92.24% Ivr 34% looking at the chart{image} Having a view...
I looked at FXE last night, but got distracted churning through possible earnings plays ... .

My tendency with high IVR underlyings is to go with strangles around 45 DTE with the strikes placed around 80-85% OTM. With FXE, I've got a bearish directional bias, so I would probably skew the strangle to the put side. (A July 31 104.5/115.5 short strangle would go for .95 cr, which isn't horrible, and I could see even skewing it a few strikes even lower than that given my view that we aren't likely to revisit even 114 soon ... ). An alternative is an IC, for which the strangle is your "skeleton"; the long put and long call for the IC go outside the strangle setup and define your risk ...

That being said, the IVR with FXE doesn't seem to contract as dramatically as it does with other underlyings ... . It seems to be in a constant fevered pitch with an IVR between 80 and 100 most of the time (at least recently). With the high IVR plays, I want to get in when the IVR/IV is high in anticipation that IV will contract soon thereafter. For example, with earnings plays, you'll often see a pop toward the high end of IVR around earnings and then a virtually immediate contraction, which makes selling premium rewarding where that occurs ... . FXE doesn't seem to contract as dramatically ... . Nevertheless, I could see setting up a strangle here if I didn't want to keep some powder dry for earnings plays and to fiddle with mechanically putting on SPY trades (want to work on getting one short put vert and one short call vert a week).

As far as education is concerned, I would start digging into TastyTrade videos. There's a ton of info there; if you plow through the individual show segments, you start to get the hang of which strategies are ideal in which environments (low vol vs. high vol) and how to manage trades effectively to maximize profit and minimize loss ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,084
  • Jun 16, 2015 12:21am Jun 16, 2015 12:21am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} got nothing, nothing new, par for the course for a Monday, usually too busy on Mondays to do much...a Greek deal and a dovish Fed could bring back the bulls with a vengeance, then I'll be sorry I didn't get any short put spreads on, oh well...
I set up a SPY short put vert and a short call vert and probably tried to get filled for more credit than the market would bear today ... . Tomorrow's a day off for me, so it's easier to do some "market discovery" for those then. Nevertheless, I want to try to be a little more patient and ask for a little more credit than the "mid" and let the market come to me if it's going to do that ... .

You're right about the .30 cents for a $2 spread ... crapeeola ... . I've been shooting for .50 for a 3-wide ... . The only way to get more is to get more aggressive, which, in turn, lowers the POP%-age, which I don't want to do ... . If my standard was get at least 1/3rd the spread, I'd have to move the strikes in below the expected move which I ain't gonna do.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,085
  • Jun 16, 2015 12:35am Jun 16, 2015 12:35am
Quoting nickah
put through the below. With 1 day dte Instead of limit order i changed to market order. It did say accpeted at 0.45 credit ...everything including buying power were reduced but i am seeing 0 under position with new vix position populated though ... Puzzle me hmmm....as i have intentionally chose those with decent volume as shown but its still not filled ... {image}
So, did you get filled?

Kinda curious as to the fills on these IC's ... . I know the fill is for the setup as a "package", but I assume 4 legs need to be filled simultaneously in some combination that will equal the credit your order is for, which could make the fill more problematic ... . I guess that's one of the reasons why I've been setting up the put side separately from the call side ... .

BP is reduced when you enter the order in anticipation that it will be filled ... . If the order expires unfilled, the BP reduction is added back in.

Also, when I enter an order that has yet to be filled, it nevertheless shows up in my portfolio as you described in my TOS iPad app ("0" under the position/leg). It also does this for one day after I have rolled/closed a position/leg. Takes some getting used to ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,086
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:12am Jun 16, 2015 2:12am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
let the market come to me if it's going to do that ... . You're right about the .30 cents for a $2 spread ... crapeeola ... . I've been shooting for .50 for a 3-wide ... . The only way to get more is to get more aggressive, which, in turn, lowers the POP%-age, which I don't want to do ... . If my standard was get at least 1/3rd the spread, I'd have to move the strikes in below the expected move which I ain't gonna do.
Hard to find anything really phat now unless you slum in the VIX based options, all good until they rip your face off one time. I am not into ER mode yet, I may not play any of them. I like to sell spreads at the peak of the pre-ER IVR rush, just a 1-2 day trade, but I don't always have time for it. I am just looking for bread/butter trades now, all short index etf action....if I see something long worth a gamble, fine, but honestly I am doing better staying away from too much of that.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,087
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:22am Jun 16, 2015 2:22am
who is buying the euro? euro strength in the last week beyond me.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,088
  • Jun 16, 2015 9:50am Jun 16, 2015 9:50am
Trying to eek out .50 on a July 31 197.5/200.5 short put vert ... . This would complete a July 31st 197.5/200.5/215/218 IC.

May look to get in a put wing for my July 24 214.5/217.5 short call vert ... . Looking for .51 cr for 198.5/201.5 short put spread.

* * *

Not much of interest for me on the earnings play side this week ... . Want to keep the ol' powder dry for maybe some plays next week: NKE sticks out ... . It looks good for a strangle now, but that could change ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,089
  • Jun 16, 2015 11:24am Jun 16, 2015 11:24am
Looking like a day for SPY short call spreads ... . Getting a bit of bounce here and price is moving away from my short put spread orders to complete my IC's ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,090
  • Jun 16, 2015 11:27am Jun 16, 2015 11:27am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Looking like a day for SPY short call spreads ... . Getting a bit of bounce here and price is moving away from my short put spread orders to complete my IC's ... .
May shoot for a July 17 214/217 short call vert for a .61 cr and wait for SPY to move back the other way to fill the put side of my IC's ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,091
  • Jun 16, 2015 11:30am Jun 16, 2015 11:30am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} May shoot for a July 17 214/217 short call vert for a .61 cr and wait for SPY to move back the other way to fill the put side of my IC's ... .
May shoot for .63 credit and see if I get filled ... . Can't hurt to ask for more ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,092
  • Edited 11:54am Jun 16, 2015 11:40am | Edited 11:54am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} May shoot for .63 credit and see if I get filled ... . Can't hurt to ask for more ... .
July 17 214/217 short call vert filled at .64 ... . Overall delta is now at -90, so I'll need to get some put spreads on ... eventually ... . Kinda pissed at myself for not setting those up as GTC so that I could've gotten in on the dip at decent prices ... . Hindsight's a bitch ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,093
  • Jun 16, 2015 12:05pm Jun 16, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} May shoot for a July 17 214/217 short call vert for a .61 cr and wait for SPY to move back the other way to fill the put side of my IC's ... .
I was just looking at Jul $215/$217 calls for about $0.36, don't have ToS open, enjoying a lazy week, may wait til FOMC and Thursday eurogroup meeting on Greece to come and go....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,094
  • Jun 16, 2015 12:09pm Jun 16, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} July 17 214/217 short call vert filled at .64 ... . Overall delta is now at -90, so I'll need to get some put spreads on ... eventually ... . Kinda pissed at myself for not setting those up as GTC so that I could've gotten in on the dip at decent prices ... . Hindsight's a bitch ... .
Set up GTC orders (to expire on 6/19) for the put wings for my July 17 and July 24 short call verts at 198/201 and 197/200, respectively, looking for a .51 credit for each (80%+ POP for those as of right now) ... . Will fiddle with asking for more out of those if it looks like SPY is headed for a dip ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,095
  • Jun 16, 2015 12:24pm Jun 16, 2015 12:24pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I was just looking at Jul $215/$217 calls for about $0.36, don't have ToS open, enjoying a lazy week, may wait til FOMC and Thursday eurogroup meeting on Greece to come and go....
Probs the smart thing to do ... . Me, I'm rolling the dice a bit here, especially with having all short call verts out there right now ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,096
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:41pm Jun 16, 2015 2:41pm
SPY $208 - $213 since April Fool's (no relation) - not hard to work with that and I can't complain, but I am sitting tight til big sovereign moves get going, or til the threat of those passes. I'd have to bet on a dovish Fed and then, maybe sooner than later, a miraculous resolution of the Greek mess, so sure, new US index highs, the party never ends. Or the exact opposite of the above, in which case I don't want to be short puts anywhere except maybe VIX based options. The binary event that never arrives, such a bore....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,097
  • Jun 16, 2015 10:34pm Jun 16, 2015 10:34pm
Out of boredom, I copied a TastyTrade idea and put on an earnings play iron condor (75/80/80/85) in ADBE right before the close for a 3.36 credit/3 DTE ... . Just need for price to stay within the expected move.

The other earnings play I set up was an order for an IC in ORCL (42/45/45/48) for a 1.67 cr with 3 DTE. Ordinarily, I would just do strangles with these, but didn't want to tie up cap heading into next week in the event they go awry ... .

Considered copying JLS's earnings play IC in FDX, but the IVR is some 30 points lower than that of ORCL, so ... pass on FDX.

The Dough/TastyTrade trading ideas have been a bit goofy for some of the newer folks (Shark-Jeev; somewhat wild and aggressive; won't be copying any of his stuff soon); many of the others don't trade with high enough frequency, it seems, to get a sufficient number of occurrences (or they aren't posting all their trades). Robyn's trades seem to be the most straightforward, systematic, and mechanical, but she does a lot of earnings trades ... . The good thing about her is her journaling with the explanation of why she's doing what, especially with respect to rolling, closing out legs that have served their purpose, letting legs expire worthless when it's apparent they'll do so ... ; even if you don't or can't copy all of her trades (she's got one of the bigger accounts, so more flexibility to but on a ton of strangles), it's good education to look at her trade setups to see what she's doing and why she's doing it. Tom's Team's trades are more bread and butter stuff (SPY, TLT, DIA, IWM, FXE), but they do have a tendency to goof around with some of the more unusual strategies that I'm not into (Jade Lizards, Laddering) ... .

Decided to do the smart thing and pull off those GTC short put vert orders in SPY until FOMC/Greek shit is flushed out of the system ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,098
  • Jun 16, 2015 11:06pm Jun 16, 2015 11:06pm
Looking for long delta somewhere ... . I keep on returning to GLD, but given the inverse relationship between the dollar and gold, that may be another thing I will have to wait on until FOMC/Greek default issues pass ... . Can't eek out what I would want at 1 SD which for a three-wide would be a 105/108 short put vert which is going for a paltry .27.

There's always naked short puts in SLV ... . Ugh.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,099
  • Jun 16, 2015 11:21pm Jun 16, 2015 11:21pm
I have followed Robyn's trades at times - I remember her saying how many trades she did a week (or month?) - in the hundreds? .... anyway, lots...if I were trading all day every day I would be doing the same, or trying to. The ER trades are a good bet if you have the time to do them - I just have not figured out how to do them without letting them rob my attention from other things I have to do.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,100
  • Jun 16, 2015 11:30pm Jun 16, 2015 11:30pm
Quoting The Fool
For Jun expiry I have IWM $128/$129.5 short calls, took $0.35 credit a few weeks back, looking to buy out for about $0.06, or let expire Friday. Also a Jun EWZ $32 call calendar, need to beware early assignment there, but as it is not very far itm, probably not likely....would like to see EWZ slide back below $33 of course, in which case I will sell for >$0.35 - got in for $0.08, was 1/2 of a double Jun/Jul call ($32/$42) calendar that was a $0.18 debit total net
...both these trades could be problems if the indices rally through the end of the week. I have had ages to get out of the IWM spread with decent credit but thought I might let it play out to expiry since I am not trading much, not scrounging for free margin. Bad choice - the short leg just $1.50 otm now...

EWZ trade now a common problem I have with time spreads - get down to the wire and hold out for a great finish and that huge payoff, but the trade moves away from that sweet spot in the final days - this now a reason I am not doing near as many calendars & diagonals as I used to....EWZ has rallied away from $32, almost to $34 and the the original double calendar is sitting at b/e now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
23 traders viewing now