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Discovering An Edge

  • #21
  • Jun 15, 2015 3:01pm Jun 15, 2015 3:01pm
Quoting shiva
{quote} Hay Vlad mate, LTNS, good luck and smooth sailing to you!
Hey Shiva! Hope you're doing well and pipping green! Thx for the best wishes!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #22
  • Jun 15, 2015 3:03pm Jun 15, 2015 3:03pm
Quoting panamamike
many green pips to you! Good luck with the thread and your trading.
Mike! How goes it mate?! Hope your new family is giving ya plenty of joy! Best wishes to you!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #23
  • Jun 15, 2015 3:04pm Jun 15, 2015 3:04pm
Quoting MarkChew
Good luck
Thx a lot bro, appreciate it.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #24
  • Jun 15, 2015 3:06pm Jun 15, 2015 3:06pm
Definitely eyeing the GBP.
GU and GJ
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #25
  • Jun 15, 2015 3:27pm Jun 15, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting vlady1974
Definitely eyeing the GBP. GU and GJ
Goodluck with your journal Vlady!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM30.png Size: 19 KB
  • #26
  • Jun 15, 2015 4:28pm Jun 15, 2015 4:28pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} Goodluck with your journal Vlady! {image}
Hey LC,

Had I been paying attention, it would have been your second trade for me - that fits with my strategy rules, the breaking of last swing high.
I'm not trading the first impulse.

Cheers for the best wishes!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #27
  • Jun 15, 2015 4:45pm Jun 15, 2015 4:45pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hey LC, Had I been paying attention, it would have been your second trade for me - that fits with my strategy rules, the breaking of last swing high. I'm not trading the first impulse. Cheers for the best wishes!
Understood. Different strategies. First impulse was accumulation at Weekly Open. GBPindex strongest. JPYindex weak. No brainer really. Just confirming your earlier sentiments with mine. Good work.
  • #28
  • Jun 16, 2015 2:53am Jun 16, 2015 2:53am
Thank you my friend. My little man is almost two! Time flies.....I wish you all the best with the trades.

Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Mike! How goes it mate?! Hope your new family is giving ya plenty of joy! Best wishes to you!
  • #29
  • Edited 2:03am Jun 18, 2015 1:50am | Edited 2:03am
AUDNZD Longs still in play. 2x +120 pips seeking a few targets. One shown below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 342 KB

Â
Stops moved to 11150
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #30
  • Jun 18, 2015 2:02am Jun 18, 2015 2:02am
Also took a Long GBPAUD 20427.8. Initial target shown on 1H. Weekly shows two targets previously achieved above red "base" with an ambitious target further up. We shall see.
BTW, the iPad sucks for doing this kind of thing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 347 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #31
  • Jun 18, 2015 4:48am Jun 18, 2015 4:48am
Quoting vlady1974
Also took a Long GBPAUD 20427.8. Initial target shown on 1H. Weekly shows two targets previously achieved above red "base" with an ambitious target further up. We shall see. BTW, the iPad sucks for doing this kind of thing. {image}
Added to Longs @ 20337
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #32
  • Jun 18, 2015 4:49am Jun 18, 2015 4:49am
Quoting vlady1974
AUDNZD Longs still in play. Stops moved to 11150
Stops moved to 11184
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #33
  • Jun 18, 2015 4:51am Jun 18, 2015 4:51am
Yesterday lost -36 on AUDUSD.

I closed the main one just as I went for dinner at a restuarant as I couldn't monitor the FOMC thing. Also against my better judgement as I'd already known beforehand that my OzzieKiwi was okay. I need to work on this fear or self-doubt. It's actually cost me twice during this week.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #34
  • Jun 18, 2015 4:57am Jun 18, 2015 4:57am
I don't understand playing that pair. They are the two strongest in a 1 hour basis, and the AUD is the strongest upslope on a 4 hour basis. Good luck, I hope it works out for you.

Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Added to Longs @ 20337
EDIT: I see your trade is based on the weekly....ignore my post
  • #35
  • Jun 18, 2015 6:18am Jun 18, 2015 6:18am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Stops moved to 11184
Stops moved to 11223.

ZZBB has printed an outside close to the upside which is a warning for lower movement so I am tempted to take my profits now and re-enter longs at a better/lower price upon completion of mean reversion.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #36
  • Jun 18, 2015 6:23am Jun 18, 2015 6:23am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Stops moved to 11223. ZZBB has printed an outside close to the upside which is a warning for lower movement so I am tempted to take my profits now and re-enter longs at a better/lower price upon completion of mean reversion.
Closed both for net +520

Edit:
15M showed signs of ZZBB High and beginnings of mean reversion. Looking for bounces off 18EMA and or 50EMA. 11252 and 11217 respectively - or any close below Bollinger Band. Expecting continuation of trend, not reversal or change in overall trend (weekly).
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #37
  • Jun 18, 2015 6:30am Jun 18, 2015 6:30am
-68 on GBPAUD.
This was poorly managed due to distractions at the day job. Had numerous opportunities to close one in the money and one in small loss for -10 but did not take it.
I should have read the break of 15M 200EMA as change in short-term trend as a continuation down from the break of the 50 and 100EMA.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #38
  • Jun 18, 2015 12:02pm Jun 18, 2015 12:02pm
Another long on AUDNZD @ 11260, SL at BE now.
Looking for a long spot on GBPAUD
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #39
  • Jun 18, 2015 12:38pm Jun 18, 2015 12:38pm
I've right royally screwed up my trades on GBPAUD today. But.... I persevere. The past is gone.

As it stands, my weekly projection is still in place. The 4H gives the following picture:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price is at Bollinger Mid which is the 18EMA. Oscillations of the swings indicate that the latest swings are ready to revert to mean, with the prevailing mean trend (50-100EMA) being long.

On a 15M this is clearer, where price broke the Bollinger Mid at the price range I've got my current order. It's unclear whether that will be filled. The last Close Outside Bollinger Band (COBB) was to the southside, so the next one needs to be on the northside of the band.... a Top in other words. This could coincide with the 50 and 200 EMAs ranging from 20344 to 20347.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD-15M.JPG Size: 153 KB
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #40
  • Jun 18, 2015 12:47pm Jun 18, 2015 12:47pm
VIEWS ON EURUSD

Weekly shows that the pair is still retracing it's Wave 4 structure and speculation is on where it will end - will it peak at the 1.14-15ish levels or will it go for 1.2? Personally I don't care but the EMA's provide resistance at 16-18. I have to price projections around this range: 11754 and 11697.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-1W.JPG Size: 134 KB


The breakout on the 4H is unconvincing to me, so we will have to wait for fundamentals to drive this pair. Clearly however, there is money flowing from AUD and JPY perhaps in exchange for USD as well on the other crosses. EURNZD is at 185 pip move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-4H.JPG Size: 165 KB


Any trades will have to be scalps - which is going to be discretionary for me. I don't have time to nurse 15M trades whilst I have projects going on at work.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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