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PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

  • #1,381
  • Edited 11:02am Jun 15, 2015 10:52am | Edited 11:02am
Quoting traderathome
GBPJPY Already a Double Top on H4, the MMs might have price lower - but still above half Level - for ongoing filling of SM short orders. To my way of thinking, a break high of the whole Level and a break low of the half Level would not be conclusive. The bigger range HLs need to be broken; the lower or upper 1/4 Levels. Lots of GBP releases coming. And maybe some clues from looking at other pairs involving GBP. The MMs have been supporting this, but I still tend to think bears. And always of the possibility of yet another stop hunt of shorts. {image}...
GBPJPY

And speaking of that possibility of yet another stop hunt of shorts,........right back above the whole number, where we know the MMs prefer to build short themselves.

We cannot know how these thieves will manipulate price next, but this does sort of reinforce that they are bears. It is a pretty good bet they will support and range the price up here now. An attempt to sucker longs for the shorting liquidity they will give the MMs.
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  • #1,382
  • Jun 15, 2015 10:52am Jun 15, 2015 10:52am
Welcome back Tah. Looking forward to new things to learn from this thread. Still trying to get a hang of this PVSRA. Closed with +85.7 pips over 3 pairs. Seems like MM gonna fill up those short orders on eu/usd and gbp/usd. Or it might go the other way. It is all up to them.

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  • #1,383
  • Edited 11:42am Jun 15, 2015 11:25am | Edited 11:42am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GBPJPY And speaking of that possibility of yet another stop hunt of shorts,........right back above the whole number, where we know the MMs prefer to build short themselves. We cannot know how these thieves will manipulate price next, but this does sort of reinforce that they are bears. It is a pretty good bet they will support and range the price up here now. An attempt to sucker longs for the shorting liquidity they will give the MMs. {image}
GBPJPY

Looking at this H1 chart gives me the impression the MMs are supporting the price now, have been, will be,.....with the two recent drives back up - made obvious by our PVA - confirming that the MMs are supporting the price "on high".

This is exactly what they would do if they plan a great down side move in the future, because supporting the price....and continuing to do so.....suckers in longs for shorting liquidity and forces everyone to trade where the MMs keep the price. That includes shorters, who will likely be the subject of yet another stop hunt, because so far the volume at the highs is not quite so substantial as the volume at the lows after the strong bear run. I suspect we will see another upside move, one that will involve obviously larger activity than we have seen so far on these most recent pushes up. It might not come for yet another day or so,...maybe not until the JPY high impact releases in the Thursday AS.

The market is always about liquidity: liquidity for the MMs to fill SM and DM orders. And right now, and until the trigger the MMs are holding off for, it seems the liquidity most sought after is liquidity for shorting. And the MMs are manipulating prices accordingly, as I see it.
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  • #1,384
  • Jun 15, 2015 11:41am Jun 15, 2015 11:41am
Good Day everyone.... I am relatively new to forex and also very new to Sonic R and PVSRA so please bear with me. Here are my trades for today...i guess i was just lucky.
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  • #1,385
  • Jun 15, 2015 11:44am Jun 15, 2015 11:44am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GBPJPY Looking at this H1 chart gives me the impression the MMs are supporting the price now, have been, will be,.....with the two recent drives back up - made obvious by our PVA - confirming that the MMs are supporting the price "on high". This is exactly what they would do if they plan a great down side move in the future, because supporting the price....and continuing to do so.....suckers in longs for shorting liquidity and forces everyone to trade where the MMs keep the price. That includes shorters, who will likely be the subject of...
Hi Tah

Here is a bit of a philosophical question which leans on your gbpjpy chart: if we have an established uptrend, is a stop hunt on premature short orders really a stop hunt or a trend continuation, or both at the same time?To be more precise, if we have PVA events on dips in an uptrend, is that a clear sign of a beginning of a stop hunt on a premature shorts or a trend continuation after loading more long orders, or both at the same time?

EDIT: is an uptrend really over until it stops making new highs?

Marijan
  • #1,386
  • Jun 15, 2015 12:08pm Jun 15, 2015 12:08pm
Quoting marijan993
{quote} Hi Tah Here is a bit of a philosophical question which leans on your gbpjpy chart: if we have an established uptrend, is a stop hunt on premature short orders really a stop hunt or a trend continuation, or both at the same time?To be more precise, if we have PVA events on dips in an uptrend, is that a clear sign of a beginning of a stop hunt on a premature shorts or a trend continuation after loading more long orders, or both at the same time? EDIT: is an uptrend really over until it stops making new highs? Marijan
When Are the MMs For or Against the Trend?

Excellent questions, Marijan

Your implication is 100% right. A trend is not over until the pattern of HLs reverses. And even then, we cannot be totally sure until any such reversal of HLs is continued.....

We have long since discovered (to our dismay and margin calls) that "Yes!"....if we have an established uptrend, a stop hunt on premature short orders really is a stop hunt and can be also a trend continuation! Bulls can be responsible for bullish moves in an uptrend. Bears can be, too! All the better to sucker in longs, now decidedly needed for the bulls to close their longs, and then to open shorts. And are those not the actions of bears?

SM places orders. So does DM. The MMs manipulate prices to fill all they can. That is how they get commissions. Sometimes the market is really only ranging, without any strong and overriding bull or bear signature. Sometimes the market is trending, establishing a definite bull or bear signature. But we need to realize that all trends eventually end. And before they do, SM is seeking to close positions of the trend and open positions opposite. And the MMs are doing all they can to cloak what is going on so that they can continue to deceive the market into believing the trend continues, so that those that continue to submit orders per the trend will be the providers of the liquidity the MMs need to fill the repositioning of SM.

How do we trade the market? We always do PVSRA. It is an ongoing activity for us. But, we cautiously ride the coattails of the crooks operating this market by attempting to trade only when PA actually agrees with ongoing PVSRA. Can we try and second guess the MMs and take advantage of what we think are appropriate highs or lows, resulting from stop hunts or otherwise? Yes, we can. And we can sometimes suffer the consequences of trying to do so. Remember, we cannot know how the MMs will move price next. And they are always - for the purpose of getting desired liquidity - for the trend, right up until the last significant SM order opposite the trend has been filled, during whatever time the planning of the trend reversal has been in the works, and which spells the end of the planning and the beginning of the reversal.

-tah
  • #1,387
  • Jun 15, 2015 12:11pm Jun 15, 2015 12:11pm
Quoting marijan993
{quote} Hi Tah Here is a bit of a philosophical question which leans on your gbpjpy chart: if we have an established uptrend, is a stop hunt on premature short orders really a stop hunt or a trend continuation, or both at the same time?To be more precise, if we have PVA events on dips in an uptrend, is that a clear sign of a beginning of a stop hunt on a premature shorts or a trend continuation after loading more long orders, or both at the same time? EDIT: is an uptrend really over until it stops making new highs? Marijan

marijan,

i have pondered over this, too...

if MM's are the architects of price movement...wouldn't this mean they are also the ones responsible for the beginning, end and continuation of all trends? through accumulation and distribution?
"the fool and the prophet walk hand in hand..."
  • #1,388
  • Jun 15, 2015 12:25pm Jun 15, 2015 12:25pm
AUDUSD

Most of the activity this month as been above the whole number 0.7700. Once, even above 0.7800. Now take a look at this H4 chart, and specifically at the H4 bar preceding the current bar. It was entirely above the half Level. It is for about the same volume as the bar preceding it, which drove the price all the way up 50+ pips to get the price above the half Level! This is an indication higher prices are desired by SM. This is an indication SM has short orders placed high in the established 100+ pips range, rather than long orders placed low in the range.

With an AUD high impact release in the coming AS, there is the possibility the MMs will whip up the price......upper whole Level/RDH......more highs, more SM short orders filled. And this would be a nice bullish head fake up thru the upper TL......

Will it happen? If it does, how high will the MMs eventually get the price? We cannot know. Bearish signs from PVSRA outweigh bullish signs, but with USD high impacts coming over the next several days, the MMs and SM might be bears but bears that will causing price to rise more, to further their accumulation of premium shorts using the liquidity of incoming longs.

This is a tough one because price could break high the upper range/whole Level and be pushed to RWH, which would be a nice long trade. On the other hand, a push up to the upper range/whole Level could end up as only a head fake, with price ranging up there until whatever USD release is going to be used by the MMs to trigger a bear swing. This is a tough one. But when price is ranging, if one decides to trade, it is usually best to trade long at the range bottom or short at the range top, and with a tight SL. If price breaks out of the range, hitting your SL, the price might retrace towards the range breakout area - a test/more loading of positions - before continuing the breakout move. This is usually an area to consider trading again, but now in the range breakout direction.
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  • #1,389
  • Jun 15, 2015 12:35pm Jun 15, 2015 12:35pm
Quoting traderathome
Dear Gals and Guys, I thank you all for once again rallying in support of this thread and free speech in the "'Comments" section of Forex Factory. So many of you have responded. I am overwhelmed. As you, I have had no reply from Twee since I sent the following to him last week: Dear Twee, Again, some "Senior Member" has pressed the "Suspend Button" on me for "Comments" containing the truth, and expressed to increase traders' awareness of their adversary in the market. Allowing a "Senior Member" to stifle free and true speech serving traders might...
Welcome home prof.
Glad to see you here again.
-MJ
"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #1,390
  • Jun 15, 2015 12:38pm Jun 15, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting kaoscoded
{quote} marijan, i have pondered over this, too... if MM's are the architects of price movement...wouldn't this mean they are also the ones responsible for the beginning, end and continuation of all trends? through accumulation and distribution?
Yes!

Yes, in a way they can be. They are, of course, always trying to fill SM and DM orders for the sake of commissions. In what sequence of directions and how far in each move the MMs manipulate price all depends on the randomness of orders on the price queue. This is, has been, and always will be the cause of randomness that we experience in the market, and which is why mathematicians have never been able to crack the market, and which is why price derivative indicators always fail when needed most.

Yes, in a way they can be, because when the MMs are done doing their SM/DM business, and the trend is ripe for reversal - if not overdue for one - they might play "smartest money of all" by manipulating price to the absolute extreme,.....all for their own final position building. And by doing this, it is they....not the orders of SM.....that establish the highs and lows of some of the reversals history shows us. Yes, to be sure, such moves are not possible without the pending orders of "wrong side others" sitting far enough away such that these "others" felt if price ever reached their orders then it must be a SURE SIGN that price is going further in their direction,.....NO!

-tah
  • #1,391
  • Jun 15, 2015 12:43pm Jun 15, 2015 12:43pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} When Are the MMs For or Against the Trend? Excellent questions, Marijan Your implication is 100% right. A trend is not over until the pattern of HLs reverses. And even then, we cannot be totally sure until any such reversal of HLs is continued..... We have long since discovered (to our dismay and margin calls) that "Yes!"....if we have an established uptrend, a stop hunt on premature short orders really is a stop hunt and can be also a trend continuation! Bulls can be responsible for bullish moves in an uptrend. Bears can be, too! All the...
KISS= the ultimate solution?

Facts:

- MMs like to open shorts above 1/1 and 1/2 level and vice versa
- PA on any given day and on most pairs will move from 1/2 level to 1/1 level and vice versa based on MMs intentions

Therefore:

- determine weather the MMs are bulls or bears beyond any reasonable doubt (if not possible, well, sideline is a position, too)
- trade in the MMs direction with open above/below 1/1 and 1/2 level and TP on the nearest 1/1 or 1/2 level

Should we keep it simple? Or should we bother ourselves with the game and an outcome of the game the MMs and SMs play? Should we ride their coattails or ponder on the deeper meaning of moves they make?

Marijan
  • #1,392
  • Jun 15, 2015 12:45pm Jun 15, 2015 12:45pm
GBPUSD Comment:
MMs closed their longs and will soon start opening shorts. In this case they don't need SL hunt, becouse DM is still buying longs.
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PVSRA
  • #1,393
  • Jun 15, 2015 12:51pm Jun 15, 2015 12:51pm
Quoting marijan993
{quote} KISS= the ultimate solution? Facts: - MMs like to open shorts above 1/1 and 1/2 level and vice versa - PA on any given day and on most pairs will move from 1/2 level to 1/1 level and vice versa based on MMs intentions Therefore: - determine weather the MMs are bulls or bears beyond any reasonable doubt (if not possible, well, sideline is a position, too) - trade in the MMs direction with open above/below 1/1 and 1/2 level and TP on the nearest 1/1 or 1/2 level Should we keep it simple? Or should we bother ourselves with the game and an outcome...
KISS= the ultimate solution? YES!

1. Determine weather the MMs are bulls or bears beyond any reasonable doubt (if not possible, well, sideline yourself).
2. Trade in the MMs direction with open above/below 1/1 and 1/2 level and TP on the nearest 1/1 or 1/2 level .

Thank you, marijan993, from me to you, for all of us!
This is truly a KISS method to trade PVSRA results.

-tah
  • #1,394
  • Jun 15, 2015 12:53pm Jun 15, 2015 12:53pm
Thank You TaH for all your effort!
Much appreciated.

Been reading this thread and also the Sonic thread.
Starting to understand a bit what you explain here.

I had a nice trade on GU. Thanks to you.
Got out of the trade at last friday's high. Seems to be a good exit point.


Cheers.
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  • #1,395
  • Jun 15, 2015 1:02pm Jun 15, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting Fisher755
GBPUSD Comment: MMs closed their longs and will soon start opening shorts. In this case they don't need SL hunt, becouse DM is still buying longs. {image}
GBPJPY Comment:
The same Picture with this pair, both bearish to me.
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PVSRA
  • #1,396
  • Jun 15, 2015 1:04pm Jun 15, 2015 1:04pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} KISS= the ultimate solution? YES! 1. Determine weather the MMs are bulls or bears beyond any reasonable doubt (if not possible, well, sideline yourself). 2. Trade in the MMs direction with open above/below 1/1 and 1/2 level and TP on the nearest 1/1 or 1/2 level . Thank you, marijan993, from me to you, for all of us! This is truly a KISS method to trade PVSRA results. -tah
Let's hope the practice will be successful as theory is
  • #1,397
  • Jun 15, 2015 1:04pm Jun 15, 2015 1:04pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} GBPJPY Comment: The same Picture with this pair, both bearish to me. {image}
GBPJPY Short trade Open:
Based on my PVSRA reading.
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PVSRA
  • #1,398
  • Jun 15, 2015 1:10pm Jun 15, 2015 1:10pm
@TAH nice to see you again in the thread. Welcome back.

After market opened with a nice gap this week's beginning, price filled the space with high volume activity. I tought bears loaded their guns to short again. There was a bearish trend and entered the positions. I hope it wasn't a lucky trade, it is a reasoneble trade with pvsra rules.
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  • #1,399
  • Jun 15, 2015 1:12pm Jun 15, 2015 1:12pm
Eur/usd Closed Consolidation at quarter level then broken
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  • #1,400
  • Jun 15, 2015 1:16pm Jun 15, 2015 1:16pm
Quoting marijan993
{quote} KISS= the ultimate solution? Facts: - MMs like to open shorts above 1/1 and 1/2 level and vice versa - PA on any given day and on most pairs will move from 1/2 level to 1/1 level and vice versa based on MMs intentions Therefore: - determine weather the MMs are bulls or bears beyond any reasonable doubt (if not possible, well, sideline is a position, too) - trade in the MMs direction with open above/below 1/1 and 1/2 level and TP on the nearest 1/1 or 1/2 level Should we keep it simple? Or should we bother ourselves with the game and an outcome...
marijan993;
thats great methode, keep it simple.
And i think, that method is very suitable for the dance with MMs whether they are bulls or bears. Lets try to aplly it on practice. And if it works well, my problem "the timing to jump" will solved.
Thanks my friend..
-MJ
"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
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