Discovering An Edge

Scope:
This trade journal is primarily for personal recording of trade ideas and setups via live trades.

Objective:
I am stress testing a number of strategies I am tailoring to my time requirements. Both are trend-following.

Tools:
At any given time these tools will be applied and can include:

1. EMA
2. Trendline Breakouts
3. ZigZag / Bollinger Band
4. Concepts from Similarity and Transience/Recurrence
5. Any fundamentals that I may be interpreting
6. Variable/Fixed = Performance

Discussion
At this point, the journal is visible to the public and people can comment. Should discussion break into any specific concepts worth taking further I will continue them in other threads (if relevant) or consider opening a discussion thread. I want to keep this journal like.

Trade Explorers
I won't have time at this stage to have a Trade Explorer because I don't trade using MT4.

AUDNZD

I took some pippage on this pair over the last 2-3 weeks as weakness in Kiwi and Aussie take hold. Announcement of rate cut for NZD has boosted the value of Aussie over the Kiwi. Weekly shows EMA Fan being broken by an impulse wave that has broken previous highs, signalling a Change in Trend.



Looking for a Long Setup

keep going mate...

Long Order: 11079, SL 1061.2,

Projections:

Method 1
R = 18
3R = 54 pips
3R Price = 1133

Method 2
Price = 1121.7

WEEKLY VIEWS

EURUSD - Trend is DOWN with retracements that may signal the end of Wave 4. Speculation as to where Wave 4 will end ranges 1.14 to 1.18


USDJPY - This is the obvious inverse correlation to EURUSD but attention has to be put on the effects of YEN and not just USD. In my view, despite all government efforts, the Japan Economy is almost as bad as Europe's except it does produce major electronics and vehicles to name a few, contrasted with Greece.


EURJPY - The bounce off 200EMA and 267EMA could signal a new impulse wave so will be looking for a reaction for new Longs.


GBPUSD - The election spike did not deter some underlying issues in UK economy despite recent positive economic indicators. Personally, I think the sterling has some issues to climb and I think the DOWN trend will continue. Not trading this at the moment.


GBPJPY - I'm not understanding the fundamentals between this yet, but clearly YEN is being swapped for GBP as a risk move away from Japan. Maybe to buy some London properties! LOL


AUDUSD - This has great long term potential as the economic downturn in China is really hitting the primarily mining based industries of Aussie. As an ex-pat myself, I'm not a supporter of the current government and I think Australia is in for some serious turbulence. Property bubble? The fact that the RBA is talking down AUD is enough for me to SHORT this for quite a while. But obviously, it's a better bet (LONG) against the Kiwi.

Order triggered, stopped out -17.8
SL may have been too tight.

Re-entered LONG 11063, SL -50, TP as above.

I love that word "pippage"
I think it should be in the FX bible

15M

Scalp SHORT EURUSD 1200, TP 1177, SL BE now +5

SL hit
London Open above Asia Open... Looking like an up day.

5M

Long EURUSD
11237.5
SL 11221
Projection 1 : 3R

many green pips to you! Good luck with the thread and your trading.

Good luck

SL Hit -16.5

SL to BE

I love it too!

Cheers matey!

Lost some pips and wasted time on EURUSD today. My tendency will be to avoid this pair until Greece gets sorted out - it'll just be a grind machine.
However, here's my view of its current action on the 4H, 1H and 15M.

4H has broken a trendline, which is not overly significant in its own right but at least tells us that the present movement within the 4H wants to go higher and I can see this being capped at 1.13 which would then contain that price action back down to the trendline. There will be those who see the scalping opportunity in this, but it just doesn't work for my trading style.



1H seems to support this as well and I would use the EMAs as a Proxy for Trend in that when the fan is full expanding upwards, then I don't have to second guess that the overall trend on the 1H and 4H is up for the moment and that price is currently above this trend average. This morning I did go short on a break of the trend line but I was stopped out at BE which was also a signal of a change in trend back to the main upward trend.



The current 15M tells me nothing new but a greater clarity of the 20 pip short opportunity from 1270 to 1250 with possible extra 10 pips to 1240 if the move is strong enough. The fact that clustering has occurred at the 1250 area suggest that it will be strong enough for support. The EMAs on the 4H and 1H are all underneath 1250 so I also think the upside is more probable than the downside.

AUDNZD is still in play. My Weekly shows my overall target for this pair.



The 4H shows that a previous target has been reached (cha ching) and the angular movement of price is upward. Trading with the Trend, the trade expectation is continuance rather than reversal at this stage - but never say never. The fact that a fast moving EMA is creeping in above the target is a generalised indicator that prices are rising, in line with trend. I would argue that the Daily shows what could be considered Wave 1 and 2 and the beginnings of Wave 3.



Stops moved to 11087, last swing low of 15M. In terms of risk, the upside momentum is diminishing on the 4H and I would be happy either way if the candle low got taken out. I would still be looking for longs, but I would take care that this channel is not a Flag or Pennant and therefore could still be prone to a stronger market reaction.
Fundamental reasons for that would be any unfavourable news on the Aussie which there are some overnight and tomorrow. What will be interesting is any further announcements from New Zealand Reserve Bank that could kick start another move.

On a different note, one of the things I like to look at is the movement of prices on a board.
As an amateur and part-time trader, I don't have access to order flow and ticks etc etc as I do have a day job and that kind of feed would be a current waste of money.

So instead I view this:



It seems CHF was traded for both EUR and USD. AUD showed strength against all other majors particularly GBP. GBP though showed continued strength against USD and JPY so looking at this tells me that I am justified in NOT looking at EURUSD as the only market to trade this week because clearly there are better opportunities to explore.

I may take a look at the GBPAUD although the spread on that can be eyebrow raising. That said, I am bullish on the USDJPY and GBPJPY but I've not traded either this week yet.

Just thought I'd add this as a counterpoint to the EURUSD and AUDNZD trades.

Hmmm while I was looking at the board, I noticed that the 15M GBPJPY is "flagging"
It's displayed 2 of the 4 setup characteristics. Just need 3 and 4 and I will Long on the formation of the 4th sign....
The 3rd indication is a swing high.

Hay Vlad mate, LTNS, good luck and smooth sailing to you!