FOMC trade

Quoting Dark1

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possible if it doesn't go above 1.9119 today

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Quoting americanteek

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Still think thats coming?

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Quoting mrmikal

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I promise you we will DEFINITELY see 1.8888 sometime within the next 5 years. Could be next week, could be in a year, but I'm fairly certain we'll see 1.8888 again.


:-)

So, by all means, if you're short now, don't worry, we'll EVENTUALLY get back down...just hold onto the interest and keep putting money into your account to make sure you don't get a margin call and EVENTUALLY that trade will be positive.

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Quoting mrmikal

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I promise you we will DEFINITELY see 1.8888 sometime within the next 5 years. Could be next week, could be in a year, but I'm fairly certain we'll see 1.8888 again.

:-)

So, by all means, if you're short now, don't worry, we'll EVENTUALLY get back down...just hold onto the interest and keep putting money into your account to make sure you don't get a margin call and EVENTUALLY that trade will be positive.

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Quoting zarni

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Again, I may be missing something - but to me it does not make sense that you put any significance in a short-term market reaction. like this This is a speech and there is a lot of interpretation and emotion involved. Apart from the bare yes or no to raising rates in the short term there is a lot of room for interpretation and grey area. Most of it does not relate to any fundamentals or rationality.

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Quoting narafa

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Well, it has no significance in its' own, it's just a piece of the whole big picture & it's a very important piece to me, that's why I was watching it closely...

Remember that after the dust settles, there should be the final winning force (Supply or Demand) ruling out...This gives a lot of indications about the stage we are in on the chart...


Thanks,

Nader

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Quoting aparsai

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Thanks Hollis,

I'll probably give it a shot next time. Is it in January?

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Quoting Hollis

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It'll be before then. FOMC is once a quarter and now that we've just started bounding through Q4 (of the fiscal year mind you) we'll see the FOMC again in November (just in time for elections!). I use this same strategy on FOMC minutes as well since they tend to produce the same effect and I'm usually just kicking around on a tuesday afternoon anywho. Now what's going to happen this next time, I have no clue, but I will be there with the trade ready and willing.

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Quoting Hollis

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It'll be before then. FOMC is once a quarter and now that we've just started bounding through Q4 (of the fiscal year mind you) we'll see the FOMC again in November (just in time for elections!). I use this same strategy on FOMC minutes as well since they tend to produce the same effect and I'm usually just kicking around on a tuesday afternoon anywho. Now what's going to happen this next time, I have no clue, but I will be there with the trade ready and willing.

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Quoting mrmikal

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http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/#calendars

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Quoting MoneyMa$ter

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Yes both the FOMC and Congress have power, however in November a potential power shift can and probably will occur in the good old boys' club, Congress. And when it's all said and done, these guys (FOMC, federal political appointees, and members of Congress) dine at the same restaurants, attend the same dinner parties, play golf at the same clubs, have the same connections, donate to the same fundraisers....that's just political life.

My analogy is appropriate because those who have it (power) never want to lose it; it is taken by a measure of force, sometimes in a civil, subtle fashion (politically), sometimes not so subtly (war).

Books and class room education will rarely confirm or deny what goes on in the halls of power beyond the sterile relationships that supposedly exist as a result of separation of power or checks-and-balances. In other words to think any nominated body is truly 100% impartial and objective is just naive. Do you really believe the US Supreme Court is always an independent actor, despite the fact that they are justices for life?

It's called "you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours"; it's called "you owe me one"; it's called "payback". It's called politics. I call it the wrist guiding and bending the invisible hand in the marketplace. So now in this election season, I turn to you my weekend golfing buddy, whose daughter attends school with my son, whose wife goes shopping at Tyson's with my wife, who sits on a couple of not-for-profit, charitable fondations with me, I say to you and say I need your help, good buddy. And you say: just name it!!

Bernanke need not "abandon his mandate" but there are exceptions to every rule. FOMC goes beyond Bernanke and I can't tell you who owes what to whom, or who controls whom. But this I know: most if not all the major political players in this town either owe a debt(s) or are seeking repayment, and they will do whatever is necessary to maintain their hold on power. And remember, they all hail from other states, other cities so they're never really isolated from other FOMC members, bankers and the power players back home, where the voters are tired of interest rate increases (be ye democrat or republic is irrelevant, a pause helps everone seeking re-election).

We're not talking an "or" gate here; it's an "and" gate. Monetary policy impacts politics daily yes AND moreso during election season. Think about it. How on the one hand can the feds say with a straight-face there's no inflation, despite an increase in the so-called "headline" CPI? They do it by saying "core" CPI is still acceptable!! Here, that's politely called "pressuring" FOMC to pause. Quite frankly, that core CPI was probably not a true number. Think. If you ask most Americans living outside the Beltway, whether we're experiencing inflation, they will give you a common sense straight-forward answer: yes!!

And I never understood how the ADP numbers were so out of whack in July!! ADP was way off, but they were probably the true numbers (just out of step with the government's version of reality). So what happened? The official July NFP came out confirming no inflation.

This month, August, ADP got the message and joined the party line as their numbers were consistent with the official August release, confirming no inflation.

Simply distinguish mirage from reality. And interest rates will rise again as our new Treasury secretary is on record as favoring a strong dollar. Just get November out of the way first.

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Quoting forexplayer

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Next FOMC is Sept 20 , 2:15 PM ET.

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Quoting MoneyMa$ter

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Just so everyone is really clear:

Friday, August 29, 2006, at 2:00 pm est. FOMC releases minutes for the August 8th meeting.

Wednesday, September 20, 2006 at 2:15 pm est. FOMC meets and releases next rate increase/decrease/continued pause.

Just information; not a recommendation.

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Quoting Spectre2006

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1.8888 target for gbp/usd

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Quoting Spectre2006

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1.8888 target for gbp/usd

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Quoting MoneyMa$ter

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Just so everyone is really clear:

Friday, August 29, 2006, at 2:00 pm est. FOMC releases minutes for the August 8th meeting.

It'a actually a Tuesday - just so every one is clear!

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