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Let's Trade Options

  • #9,061
  • Jun 14, 2015 2:01am Jun 14, 2015 2:01am
someday, natgas
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,062
  • Jun 14, 2015 12:54pm Jun 14, 2015 12:54pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Well, definitely the way to go is not to make Iron Condors all at once, rather sell call spreads on rips, and put spreads on dips.... As you said, a poor man version of K.T.S. style... Margin req for selling just the /ES July 2155 call for example is over 7,000 eur on my account... Much more profitable tactics, BUT better to practice with spreads... I didn't enter any option trades today, scalped a little... Daily SMA 150 was support today on /ES... Look at the daily candles on /ES and /NQ now. Plenty to go to the close, but maybe the bounce...
That's kinda the way I'm going ... . Trying to be mechanical about it and let the market come to me (it's a patience thing) ... . KTSS is right about one thing; the call side has been slightly difficult ... especially if you're looking for a .50+ cr with a 75-85% POP. The setups where the BE is around 1 SD won't get you .50 cr, which is kinda what I'd like to get in an ideal world ... . The put side is better for those set-ups, but you've got to keep an eye on your total delta so that you don't get weighted too long. So I've been setting trying to set up orders to catch bounces on the call side (at or near the higher end of expected movement; that's the only way I'll get squat for credit on the call side) and dips on the put side (at or even below the 1SD) for a decent POP and credit ... . If they get filled, they get filled ... .

Also, experiencing a little trouble getting mechanical in SPY at this point; hung up in a few earnings play strangles that went awry or high IV strangles that are on the dance floor going into mid-June expiration ... . Need to get those off the table to free up some cap to work SPY verts properly ... .

Wanted to get into a GLD (IVR 8) short put vert last week, but didn't get the dip I wanted for a 106.5/109.5 short put vert for .50 (BE 109-ish) ... . Came close, but no cigar ... . I'm focused on the 2015 low of around 110, so don't really want to get more aggressive ... . Will probably set that up again to attempt a fill this next week.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,063
  • Jun 14, 2015 1:36pm Jun 14, 2015 1:36pm
Quoting nickah
hey all my fellow senior out there howdy good to find a thread thats discussing a lot of valuable options idea here. I am just 1 of those million out there who are tired of watching my FX positions being wiped out by the power of words ...( any single word coming out of the GOVERNORS out there ) . Pretty new to options started with TOS TD ameritrade got excitied and put in some trades since 2 weeks ago! So please do not hesitate to correct me pleaseeee please please a lot of things to learn from you all can see a steep learning curve heehee I...
You might want to try using the Dough platform to look at the metrics on these ... . I use the platform you picture there to basically review where my trades are at, but not to look at trade metrics (I just don't like the way they're graphically represented ... just me).

Having emerged from trading primarily Forex, I can understand where you're coming from. Trading spot forex is nerve-wracking to say the least ... . But there's plenty of Forex proxies (like FXE) to trade where you can use the knowledge you gained from trading spot to your advantage, especially when it comes to something like directional bias ... . That being said, I've only dipped my toe in Forex proxies a couple of times since I started trading options a couple of months ago; my primary focus started out on high IVR plays/selling premium and that didn't always lead to Forex proxy trades ... . FXE still looks like a good candidate for a short strangle (105.5/115.5 July 24 short strangle for .97 cr with a 77% POP, for example) ... . (The trade Katie's got on in Dough -- 109/112 short July 17 strangle for 2.54 is too tight for my tastes -- currently a 58% POP) (the excuse for the tightness is that they want to manage it as a winner "earlier"; I'd prefer keeping the wings wider and then roll).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,064
  • Jun 14, 2015 1:52pm Jun 14, 2015 1:52pm
Quoting The Fool
yeah maybe they will get the Greece anxt going again....if I see those $197/$199 Jul SPY short puts at near 50% as they were today, I might be inclined to take it tomorrow.....
I've been looking at setups in that strike price area -- like 198.5/200.5 July 24 (40 DTE) (currently for .29) or 197.5/199.5 July 31 (47 DTE -- a bit far out; currently for .28). I'd been looking to get into those for .50+ if we get a dip ... .

I'm a bit long delta overall, so I may focus on the call side for a bit, see what fills, look at delta again ... .

F'in Greek crap is monkeying with my bias in the short-term ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,065
  • Jun 14, 2015 2:05pm Jun 14, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting nickah
{image} something to share 1. High iv rank 2. Chart On the down trend with a slight rebounce 3. Decent volume on 7 dte and standard monthly settlement expiration 4. Low delta abot 15 to 19 on both call ( might not be low enough for you T.F ) Probably looking to sell a call above 120{image} Hefty commission is killing me Any advice on the above ? Seems my Risk and reward is always too low , not to mention the commission that is taking a huge amount away from me ..
As far as risk/reward is concerned, mine virtually always blows .... . Always seem to be balancing POP%-age against risk ... . Usually, POP%-age wins out for me by a wide margin ... . In the vast majority of cases, the stated possible loss associated with the original setup virtually never materializes; you're closing out profitable legs/profitable set-up's, rolling, and managing the trade as it develops to maximize profit and minimize loss ... . The commissions always suck at your profits; being a newb, I pretty much am ignoring the commissions for right now. As time goes on, I'll probably pass on high prob setup's that have too little credit in the them to meaningfully offset the commissions and find a good balance between POP %-age and potential credit to be earned (haven't done much with debit spreads); right now, I'm basically settling on .50 cr for a set-up or better for it to be a "go" (that figure is totally unscientific; it's just a round number I can work with ... ).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,066
  • Jun 14, 2015 2:30pm Jun 14, 2015 2:30pm
Quoting nickah
{image} something to share 1. High iv rank 2. Chart On the down trend with a slight rebounce 3. Decent volume on 7 dte and standard monthly settlement expiration 4. Low delta abot 15 to 19 on both call ( might not be low enough for you T.F ) Probably looking to sell a call above 120{image} Hefty commission is killing me Any advice on the above ? Seems my Risk and reward is always too low , not to mention the commission that is taking a huge amount away from me ..
For that TLT trade, you probs want to go 20-45 days out and widen your strikes a bit (2-3 strikes apart) -- more credit and more time to be right ... . For example, July 17 122/124 nets you a .32 credit with a 77% POP/BE 122.32. If you've got the buying power, you also might want to consider a strangle, since IVR is fairly high (73): July 24 112/124 short strangle for a 1.15 cr/70% POP or hedge the TLT short call vert with a short put vert in TBT (which moves inversely to TLT).

Me personally, I've got a TLT short strangle (July 17th expiration) on from several weeks ago when there was a pop in IVR ... . Rolled the call side down twice already ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,067
  • Jun 14, 2015 4:03pm Jun 14, 2015 4:03pm
a new deadline for Greece: the eurogroup meeting on 6/18 - a day after FOMC day - wow - could be a really eventful week....no, i'm serious.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,068
  • Jun 14, 2015 7:16pm Jun 14, 2015 7:16pm
US equity futures and fiber all red to start the week, we'll see if it holds til NY, if so, we can gap down...then plenty more Greek tragicomedy drama and FOMC midweek, we could finally see some fat red weekly candles on the US equity indices....on SPY I am looking for a quick break of $208, which opens the door below $205....a fat red weekly imo would be 50+ pts on the SnP, so yes, I want SPY sub $205....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,069
  • Edited 7:40pm Jun 14, 2015 7:29pm | Edited 7:40pm
For Jun expiry I have IWM $128/$129.5 short calls, took $0.35 credit a few weeks back, looking to buy out for about $0.06, or let expire Friday. Also a Jun EWZ $32 call calendar, need to beware early assignment there, but as it is not very far itm, probably not likely....would like to see EWZ slide back below $33 of course, in which case I will sell for >$0.35 - got in for $0.08, was 1/2 of a double Jun/Jul call ($32/$42) calendar that was a $0.18 debit total net
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,070
  • Jun 14, 2015 7:48pm Jun 14, 2015 7:48pm
Quoting The Fool
US equity futures and fiber all red to start the week, we'll see if it holds til NY, if so, we can gap down...then plenty more Greek tragicomedy drama and FOMC midweek, we could finally see some fat red weekly candles on the US equity indices....on SPY I am looking for a quick break of $208, which opens the door below $205....a fat red weekly imo would be 50+ pts on the SnP, so yes, I want SPY sub $205....
If this looks good Monday I will look to IC off Jul SPY $199/$197 and $198/$196 short put spreads, go bear calls @ $214/$216 if I can get in for $0.40 credit +/-......already have some IC'd w/ $216/$218 & will buy those out early on a heavy drop...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,071
  • Jun 14, 2015 8:02pm Jun 14, 2015 8:02pm
Quoting nickah
Hefty commission is killing me Any advice on the above ? Seems my Risk and reward is always too low , not to mention the commission that is taking a huge amount away from me ..
I think both ZSquirl & I commented on your spread - look further out and get better returns with a bit wider spreads - maybe past 20dte to 45dte and at least $1 spread and $2 to $3 max spreads are better.

That TLT short call might get attacked this week if there be a flight to safety, don't let it get to be a problem - good luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,072
  • Edited 11:01pm Jun 14, 2015 10:01pm | Edited 11:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} If this looks good Monday I will look to IC off Jul SPY $199/$197 and $198/$196 short put spreads, go bear calls @ $214/$216 if I can get in for $0.40 credit +/-......already have some IC'd w/ $216/$218 & will buy those out early on a heavy drop...


Should be an entertaining week ... . Still a bit chicken on the put side of SPY/IWM/DIA in spite of the fact that that end of things is an easier go setup wise than the call side ... . But "smells funny" isn't a tradeable idea ... . Probably still going to seek out long delta somewhere else until I can man up and either go with IC's skewed to the downside or put on short put verts around the 1 SD separately from my short call verts ... . Did briefly consider SPX short call verts for better profit metrics around the 1 SD, but the spread looks nasty, so chucked that idea out the window ... .

You're absolutely right about TLT ... . If I didn't have a strangle on or didn't have the cap to do that, I'd probably go IC or hedge with a short put vert in TBT ... . That way, you can potentially profit from short-term movement in either direction ... . Right now -- got strangles on in both TBT and TLT, so I'm good to go ... . Some of the vol in TBT has been pissed out the past couple of weeks in comparison to TLT, but that could soon change ... . Fully expect some FOMC vol pop, along with the protracted Greek strip tease ... .

Might be time to return to looking at FXE; a good deal of vol has returned to that U/L (it doesn't really ever seem to evaporate significantly), and a July 24 short 105/115 strangle will get you a 1.00 with a 75% POP ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #9,073
  • Jun 14, 2015 11:49pm Jun 14, 2015 11:49pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Should be an entertaining week ... .
Yep, have a good week, amigo.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,074
  • Jun 15, 2015 1:06am Jun 15, 2015 1:06am
cojones de latón .....? looks like it will go down to the wire....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/greek-...052054681.html
"We will await patiently until the institutions accede to realism." (........that's rich)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,075
  • Jun 15, 2015 1:24am Jun 15, 2015 1:24am
Quoting The Fool
Also a Jun EWZ $32 call calendar, need to beware early assignment there, but as it is not very far itm, probably not likely....would like to see EWZ slide back below $33 of course, in which case I will sell for >$0.35 - got in for $0.08, was 1/2 of a double Jun/Jul call ($32/$42) calendar that was a $0.18 debit total net
liking fiber showing red, strong USD will push down EWZ, if it will pin $32 by Wednesday and later I will be a happy camper
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,076
  • Jun 15, 2015 2:35am Jun 15, 2015 2:35am
Probably all of you are aware of this, but just in case: this Friday SPY will go ex-dividend ($1.03329).

Have a nice week :-)
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  • #9,077
  • Jun 15, 2015 8:53am Jun 15, 2015 8:53am
trying to get $0.30 for a Jul4 SPY $197/$195 puts @ 19 deltas....$0.30 starting to feel like my floor for these credit spreads....30c on a $2 spread is shit, but when we bounce I can IC the call side for more.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,078
  • Jun 15, 2015 9:14am Jun 15, 2015 9:14am
wow 10% iv on Jul 18 delta calls, what a goldmine....wake me up (dig me up) if it ever gets back to 15%....anyway, is that btfd I smell...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #9,079
  • Edited 10:53am Jun 15, 2015 10:13am | Edited 10:53am
You guys are amazing. Thanks The Fool, Straydog and Zebra all the senior here a little short conversation input by you guys got me enlightened 10x more than I discover myself slowly through the net like a snail. glad to have you all sharing ideas and comment generously .. This thread is full of nutrition
​
​ with uvxy up 2 dollar ish and vix up 1 dollar ish the usual suspect seller of credit spread like myself and u guys should be getting excited haha..ÂÂ
Back to some ideaÂÂ
Vix is now at iv 92.24% Ivr 34% looking at the chartÂÂ
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Having a view that it might not spike outÂÂ
Am doing IC July4 36 dte sell 12/13 put 24/25 call 0.25 crÂ
Â
In the meantime what do you think on fxe with iv% 100% iv 15% ? Looks like hitting its high on the chart. If I were to put in Sth it will probably be selling a bear call but zooming into the volume and open int it makes me think twice ( I had one uso left hanging last week without and bid to sell off to close that position in an IC I created )
  • #9,080
  • Jun 15, 2015 11:57am Jun 15, 2015 11:57am
Quoting nickah
Back to some idea Vix is now at iv 92.24% Ivr 34% looking at the chart... Having a view that it might not spike out Am doing IC July4 36 dte sell 12/13 put 24/25 call 0.25 cr
that looks OK, Nickah....VIX will spike if/when the Eurozone implodes...but that's a big if/when. Otoh, there's enough going on that VIX will probably stop cratering....we hope...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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