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PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

  • #1,221
  • Jun 11, 2015 8:24am Jun 11, 2015 8:24am
Quoting SmoothTrader
{quote} Since you were short, the ASK price had to be at 1.1185 or lower for you to be filled. The price that you see quoted on your screen is the BID price. You have to add the spread to the BID price to get the ASK price. Contact them and verify the Lowest ASK price. GREEN pips to you.
yeah,The Low is 1.11798 I hate dynamic spread
and Thank you for your GREEN pips, the same to you.
  • #1,222
  • Jun 11, 2015 8:26am Jun 11, 2015 8:26am
hi all, well you could say i have been around the world and i i i...dont understand what it is i am doing...I make small deposits, now im talking 50 dollar deposits... I then turn that 50 into 300...Not bad..i switch from approach to approach and it all boils down to what this thread talks about. I was very interested in the EURUSDD thread about similarity, the recurrent and transient zones. However it does biol down to the MM. All that i ask is has anyone been through what i am going through. As in, they trade make money then BOOOM our dear friend, Mr Let me take your trading approach, stir some tabasco sauce and obliterate you MM takes over and wipes you out. Im at the point where my trading career goes from high to low. But i will be honest. I dont feel that i am trading with a sound approach, i make notes i record trades, what is it that is missing...is this part of the transation from losing trader to profitable. I make depositis and literally triple my account every time, but everytime, im back to square one..

Forgive my spelling. Im typing this on my lunch break from the epidemic "9 -5 "

Would appreciate your comments...
If there is no enemy within, the enemy outside can do us no harm...
  • #1,223
  • Jun 11, 2015 8:28am Jun 11, 2015 8:28am
AUDUSD Comment

Tall bar at US open looks like the MMs ran the price queue both ways to use up all liquidity for filling of certain side orders. Which side? Since price has been kept mostly above the 0.7700 whole Level, I suspect the MMs were filling short orders. Time will tell. I still think the MMs have plans to take price to the 0.7550 area....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,224
  • Edited 8:54am Jun 11, 2015 8:41am | Edited 8:54am
GBPJPY Comment

As with AU, we see a wide range bar at the US open, more than 50 pips, just like with AU. In this case, it could be the MMs needed to work the price queue that much in order to get the liquidity to close longs/open shorts. If so, then the wide range is testimony to there being reduced liquidity now at the higher prices for those that want to short. The "Real News" is now out......

To bad I am not thought so highly of by some here on Forex Factory. I would really like to have permission "publish" in the news section those really good posts contributed here by you. We could call it........."The PVSRA Report!" I bet it would stand head and shoulders (pun intended) apart from all the rest.

But, then if that happened, I guess I would have to pay FF to expose the reports to everyone on FF. And I guess, while that would not make us commercial, some would turn the truth inside out and claim we had something to do with "Commercial" interests, and land us right back into the back room.

BTW, the same type of "liquidity clearance" high range bar is on GBPUSD, also suggesting filling of short orders because the MMs have kept price in a 150 pips range above the 1.5400 whole Level. The previous consolidation just above this level was for short filling, followed by a 200 pips drop in price.

PVSRA and Patience,
tah
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  • #1,225
  • Jun 11, 2015 8:47am Jun 11, 2015 8:47am
Done for today, +87 pips. I will, however, watch GBPUSD potential long. We have a bullish volume, PVA events at lows with price going up, suggesting a healthy trend. If price closes above whole upper number, I will go long with TP around upper half number, which is coincidentally a previous position building area. PVSRA is a ballpark trading.
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  • #1,226
  • Jun 11, 2015 8:51am Jun 11, 2015 8:51am
Quoting traderathome
GBPJPY Comment As with AU, we see a wide range bar at the US open, more than 50 pips, just like with AU. In this case, it could be the MMs needed to work the price queue that much in order to get the liquidity to close longs/open shorts. If so, then the wide range is testimony to there being reduced liquidity now at the higher prices for those that want to short. The "Real News" is now out...... To bad I am not thought so highly of by some here on Forex Factory. I would really like to have permission "publish" in the news section those really...
Tah, when was the last time you saw an analysis posted by "reputable experts" on "reputable sites" which included volume? Probably never. I know I never have.
  • #1,227
  • Jun 11, 2015 8:57am Jun 11, 2015 8:57am
Quoting marijan993
{quote} Tah, when was the last time you saw an analysis posted by "reputable experts" on "reputable sites" which included volume? Probably never. I know I never have.
marijan993,

Wow! You make an excellent point; reports, sans volume. Which means the implications reported could be totally invalidated by volume information that is excluded (intentionally, or ignorantly). That point had never dawned on me! Only that the reports are always suspect.

Good to think about when next sniffing around the garbage.....
  • #1,228
  • Edited 9:36am Jun 11, 2015 9:09am | Edited 9:36am
GBPJPY Comment

Look at M15 now. The MMs are running price back above the whole Level. Look at the volume. It looks like they are not getting much for their effort. If so, this could be an additional indication the market is turning quite bearish on this,.....possibly on all JPY pairs.

Of course, the Robber Banks can always still take price higher. All they have to do is to buy and sell to themselves nano-lot "book entry/ counterfeit" trades to work the price up to try and sucker in longs while maybe stop hunting shorts. They have to be careful though to not end up having to be the counter-party of a sudden influx of new short orders that maybe SM is waiting to submit should the MMs try to do this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Jun 2015 - 117.png Size: 30 KB


Aha! Looks like the MMs didn't have the balls to take price above RDH. I bet they knew SM shorters were just waiting for them to do it!
Still, they are a cagy bunch of crooks, and might do it later....
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  • #1,229
  • Jun 11, 2015 9:13am Jun 11, 2015 9:13am
Quoting iscalp
hi all, well you could say i have been around the world and i i i...dont understand what it is i am doing...I make small deposits, now im talking 50 dollar deposits... I then turn that 50 into 300...Not bad..i switch from approach to approach and it all boils down to what this thread talks about. I was very interested in the EURUSDD thread about similarity, the recurrent and transient zones. However it does biol down to the MM. All that i ask is has anyone been through what i am going through. As in, they trade make money then BOOOM our dear friend,...
iscalp,

with 50$ you can buy a shirt or invite your darling to dinner, but trading?!?

Stay on demo until you are profitable for months.
PVSRA
  • #1,230
  • Jun 11, 2015 9:21am Jun 11, 2015 9:21am
Quoting traderathome
GBPJPY Comment Look at M15 now. The MMs are running price back above the whole Level. Look at the volume. It looks like they are not getting much for their effort. If so, this could be an additional indication the market is turning quite bearish on this,.....possibly on all JPY pairs. Of course, the Robber Banks can always still take price higher. All they have to do is to buy and sell to themselves to work the price up to try and sucker in longs while maybe stop hunting shorts. They have to be careful though to not end up having to be the counter-party...
Yup, extensive use of dark pools enables them to create whatever view of the market they please.
  • #1,231
  • Jun 11, 2015 9:44am Jun 11, 2015 9:44am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} iscalp, with 50$ you can buy a shirt or invite your darling to dinner, but trading?!? Stay on demo until you are profitable for months.
$50 shirts!? Geez! The last time I bought shirts "John Henry" was in style and cost about $17. Well, I am retired now. I trade in my pajamas.
  • #1,232
  • Jun 11, 2015 9:45am Jun 11, 2015 9:45am
hi all. TAH what do you think about horizontal slice of the volume together with the vertical? I mean, the volumes traded in time. http://gyazo.com/c47d4c18539b04d135f9362c0ea8c6cf
  • #1,233
  • Edited 10:05am Jun 11, 2015 9:50am | Edited 10:05am
Quoting Ulsemioxa
hi all. TAH what do you think about horizontal slice of the volume together with the vertical? I mean, the volumes traded in time. http://gyazo.com/c47d4c18539b04d135f9362c0ea8c6cf
That is not broker tick volume (number of times price changes). It is the number of times any particular price occurs, sort of "Price Popularity", which might be another way to see consolidation areas. But, why clutter the chart when PA itself shows them, sometimes a bit differently and always more accurately?

To my way of thinking, folks make a big mistake putting too much math between themselves and the MMs that simply and opportunistically run the price queue to fill SM orders and then stop hunt them before their next running of the price queue. This core aspect of the market - the MMs running the price queue - is very random because it depends on what orders exist on the price queue, which is always changing and which the MMs themselves have no control over. This is why for more than a century the best mathematicians that have put their minds to cracking the market have never succeeded. And they never will. And yet, all too many that come to trade put their faith in math.

The accepted products of such mathematical endeavors..... Bollinger Bands, Butterfly Harmonics, Fibonacci extension and retrace tools....they all can work to some extent. But knowledgeable users are the first to accept that whatever is used,.....we still cannot know how the MMs will move price next.....cannot know if what these tools "suggest" will actually happen.

tah
  • #1,234
  • Jun 11, 2015 9:58am Jun 11, 2015 9:58am
Thanx a lot.
  • #1,235
  • Edited 12:41pm Jun 11, 2015 10:05am | Edited 12:41pm
Quoting Mauro-J
EURUSD Short trade opened. Based on bigger picture (H4), i think in Essentially MMS push prices upwards in order to make shorts at a higher price. Now, price back to the previous consolidation area and it is above the key SR whole 1.13000. I have three consolidation area marked, and these three are the highs in of each swing. And the last, the most important zone is the most highs area marked (rectangle mark - 2nd pic). this area is very strong zone as Resistance where MMS piled their shorts order queue at least since 3 Mar 2015. So what most likely...
EURUSD Update :
Update 1 : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...11#post8317311
Update 2 : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post8319694

Update 3 :

  1. Pic#1 : (Based on M15 TF) - I think it's not yet confirmed as a "STOP HUNT". Why? To conclude this pattern as a "valid Stop Hunt", can only be done when we have enough evidence as the results of the effort. The last high impact news on NS used by MMS to push prices down below the whole number (as key SR) 1.12000 (marked with numbers 1), and then bounces with nice activity as a bullish bar back to the higher level (above half number 1.12500). And then we can see there is a nice bearish pinbar as a stopping volume on tops (marked with numbers 2). And then price back to the lower side again with less activity (marked with numbers 3). Now try to think about one of the principles in our PVSRA - namely "Results vs Efforts". The bullish bar (No. 1) not followed (not yet followed - for now) by the upward movement of the price. Otherwise, the bearish pin bar above half number (No. 2), followed by the downward movement of the price (No.3). Thats why, i mentioned its not yet a "Stop Hunt". May be just not for now, and will be confirmed at the next act, or just not at all. In the other side, I think it could be a manupulation scheme by MMs to add more shorts above the key SR, so they have a nice price level for the shorts, well as steal from others (the DM and SM) to strengthen their own. And if it so, prices should be tends to consolidated above the key SR, or just falls further to the lows - lower than the previous low. Now it seems still blurry on the lower TF. But if I try sticking to my previous analysis based on bigger TF, it should be a whipi'n MMs to add more shorts from the higher levels. All can change at any time, cz MMs have full authority to control the markets.
  2. Pic#2 : (Based on bigger TF H1), has a clearer picture , that as MMS intentionally push prices higher to be able to do shorts at the best price level (above the key SR half number 1.12500). Think about it..
  3. Since I will never know how MMs will move the price next, I need to read all the signs as best as i can. And by this post, deliberately focused in one pair on EU and for a while I does not post my trade analysis on another pair, i wish it could help others who are still groping and confused about how to read the markets with PVSRA. And I will continue to update it when I have spare time to do it. And I will stops to update it when my shorts on this trade closed. And I do not know when, all depends my PVSRA reading on this EU.
  4. On the second M15 TF (ss pic#4), thats the last update. price consolidated arround the key SR area 1/4 level 1.12250. This area could be an important area to be observed on this lower TF (M 15).

I could be wrong on some things in the analysis that I have done, and it will also be our common learning materials to apply the PVSRA on better way.
Hopefully helpful for better understanding..
sincerely..
-MJ

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #1,236
  • Jun 11, 2015 10:06am Jun 11, 2015 10:06am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} $50 shirts!? Geez! The last time I bought shirts "John Henry" was in style and cost about $17. Well, I am retired now. I trade in my pajamas.
That was then, grandpa.
Were you buying at Walmart?
PVSRA
  • #1,237
  • Jun 11, 2015 10:07am Jun 11, 2015 10:07am
Quoting traderathome
GBPJPY Comment Look at M15 now. The MMs are running price back above the whole Level. Look at the volume. It looks like they are not getting much for their effort. If so, this could be an additional indication the market is turning quite bearish on this,.....possibly on all JPY pairs. Of course, the Robber Banks can always still take price higher. All they have to do is to buy and sell to themselves nano-lot "book entry/ counterfeit" trades to work the price up to try and sucker in longs while maybe stop hunting shorts. They have to be careful though to not end up having to be the counter-party of a sudden influx of new short orders that maybe SM is waiting to submit should the MMs try to do this.{image} Aha! Looks like the MMs didn't have the balls to take price above RDH. I bet they knew SM shorters were just waiting for them to do it! Still, they are a cagy bunch of crooks, and might do it later....{image}
GBPJPY Comment

There we go, over the top. Increasing volume trip, too. But not a lot of volume, not yet anyway, which says something about liquidity for selling. They have price closer now to the next whole Level. Their ultimate target? Time will tell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Jun 2015 - 119.png Size: 25 KB
  • #1,238
  • Edited 10:48am Jun 11, 2015 10:08am | Edited 10:48am
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} EURUSD Update : Update 1 : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...11#post8317311 Update 2 : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post8319694 Update 3 : Pic#1 : (Based on M15 TF) - I think it's not yet confirmed as a "STOP HUNT". Why? To conclude this pattern as a "valid Stop Hunt", can only be done when we have enough evidence as the results of the effort. The last high impact news on NS used by MMS to push prices down below the whole...
MJ,

Nice that you remind us about serious things..

Great trading, MJ. They confused me with the price under the half level before the news...

EURUSD Comment:
But look- pushed down on higher volume!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15.png Size: 63 KB

Under the lower whole level- stop hunt- many DM shorts came (robots, orders) in, you can imagine how red they are now. When MMs would want to take the price lower now, they would probaly do it in the hurry to surprise the longs, not giving them a second chance.. imho.
It does not look like that is the case. Imagine the retrace higher continues (false hope for big shorts on higher volume tomorow).
Great liquidity for their longs..

Let's see, how things Will develope..
PVSRA
  • #1,239
  • Jun 11, 2015 10:11am Jun 11, 2015 10:11am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} That was then, grandpa. Were you buying at Walmart?
Nope! Goodwill!
  • #1,240
  • Jun 11, 2015 10:22am Jun 11, 2015 10:22am
Quoting sadikhaqueuk
gbp/jpy boom look like inverse H&S ..right now head done ....now right shoulder point... rain start 1hrs 192.00 level... let see mm {image}
Out of Compliance Post!

adikhaqueuk,

A regular H&S is only valid at the end of an up trend. An inverse H&S is only valid at the end of a down trend.

And what you display on your chart has no application here on this thread. This is not a bulletin board thread for anyone to post any method of trading. This is the text book thread for PVSRA. Failure to respect this will result in loss of posting privilege.

Please delete your offending post. Thank you.

-tah
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