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Let's Trade Options

  • #8,981
  • Jun 7, 2015 11:41pm Jun 7, 2015 11:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} perhaps, the Jun5 (that's June 30th - the quarterly options expiry) $200/$197/$194 bfly might be got for $0.10, pays $1.40+ if you nailed it, good profit zone, as below {image}
I like the payout on the flies ... . Still hesitant to sell the put side, though, although I may consider one of the cheaper set-ups ... . Will have to look at stuff early next week to see where the market's headed ... . I keep on looking at the SPY chart (especially on higher time frames) and see the relentless grind up from 135 virtually without correction ... . The current P/E ratio for the entire S&P is 20.46, which is really not all that "bubbly" or "irrationally exuberant," so I don't know why I should expect some kind of dramatic correction, but for the fact that markets are at historically high levels ... . Just can't convince myself to be in long here with SPY/IWM/DIA ... . Don't want to get caught in a dip that turns out to be deeper than anticipated ... . I think the thing for me would be to set up a cheap, defined risk/broken fly that minimizes the downside risk ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,982
  • Jun 7, 2015 11:53pm Jun 7, 2015 11:53pm
I might be able to live with this set-up (just as an example):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPY Short Put Broken Fly.jpg Size: 127 KB


The POP is great, but the potential max loss isn't ... . Always a trade-off between POP and the amount of your defined risk ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,983
  • Jun 8, 2015 12:19am Jun 8, 2015 12:19am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I might be able to live with this set-up (just as an example): {image} The POP is great, but the potential max loss isn't ... . Always a trade-off between POP and the amount of your defined risk ... .
The max loss, however, of just a decaf short put vert with a BE around the 1 SD is more attractive to me ... . Less bang, naturally: July 17 197/200 short put vert's mid is at .41 cr, 84% POP with a BE of 199.59 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,984
  • Jun 8, 2015 12:33am Jun 8, 2015 12:33am
Next week's trading plan right now though is to continue to look at DIA/SPY/IWM short call verts 45 DTE + with a take profit at 50% of max and GLD short put verts 45 DTE. Would like GLD to drop a bit more, but I'm not sure I'm going to see that ... .

I'm already in TLT via a strangle and will let that just play out, rolling the call side down again if I get another shot at it ... .

For earnings plays, I've got a LULU strangle on, but the call side of that's being tested ... ugh. Most of the retail U/L's earnings have been disappointing, so I would've expected LULU to go the way way of KORS (where I rolled and went inverted), but ... nooooo ... . I'll know tomorrow morning when earnings for LULU are announced before market open.

The only other earnings I'm keeping an eye on are ADBE (IVR 83) and ORCL (IVR 75) ... . ADBE doesn't have weeklies; ORCL's got weeklies, but there isn't much oomph in a strangle to probably make it worthwhile ... at least right now ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,985
  • Jun 8, 2015 3:16am Jun 8, 2015 3:16am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Next week's trading plan right now though is to continue to look at DIA/SPY/IWM short call verts 45 DTE + with a take profit at 50% of max
I'm looking for the same, only limited to SPY. I have my eye on TLT and FXE. I have put oil on the back burner, too complicated for me to grok for the time being. re: earnings plays, I might try looking at some, still early, but I don't have much time now. re: Greece of course it's (yawn) all that, so fuckin sick of hearing about it. Watching the cheap NBG shares, might chance buying a dip to $1 there outright, or perhaps some bullish call spreads.

I've got a packed week ahead, may not put much new on, pretty much just watching for btfd opps on SPY - i.e., I want to see moves back above $212 to sell into....sitting on lotsa cash, I bought out of call spreads all the way to the end of June, need to get some trades on....

Have a good week, ya'll.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,986
  • Jun 8, 2015 5:57am Jun 8, 2015 5:57am
Quoting Cecil Gee
... Below is Fridays closing prices and it shows a net Debit of ZERO but come Monday opening I should be able to get in for 2 - 4c net Debit on this
SPY Jul 2015 196.000 put (SPY150702P00196000) -OPR 0.50 0.07(12.28%) 5 Jun 20:50
SPY Jul 2015 190.000 put (SPY150717P00190000) -OPR 0.50 0.03(5.66%) 5 Jun 20:37
Hi CG... debit was zero, because of the different expiration dates...

On Friday, SPX stopped right at daily 100 sma... For months and months, almost every dip was stopped on some of the following daily SMA's: 50 / 100 / 150 / 200, except that dip from October 2014... I don't see any reason for market to make a new ATH's going into the summer, Greece or not, whatever the endgame going to be with them. Old story, already calculated, relief rally can provide good shorting opp, IMO.

So, can we see a real correction, like 10%+ then? Idk, with supports on every few points, ZIRP, nowhere to go with the free cash and so on... I prefer selling call spreads on every rip in combination with trading it with futures and CFDs. Topping patterns can last for months, as we can see now. Bear market - I don't think so... There are no fear in the market, not yet. We need VIX above $16 at least. We need the selloff in momo stocks... not the situation where SPX goes 1% down and NFLX goes up. So, I will continue to scalp the market and to sell call spreads.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,987
  • Jun 8, 2015 7:56am Jun 8, 2015 7:56am
Quoting StrayDog
... On Friday, SPX stopped right at daily 100 sma... For months and months, almost every dip was stopped on some of the following daily SMA's: 50 / 100 / 150 / 200, except that dip from October 2014...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX-daily-emas.PNG Size: 214 KB


For 3 straight years, only one true dip bellow daily SMA 200.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,988
  • Jun 8, 2015 8:50am Jun 8, 2015 8:50am
Quoting StrayDog
So, I will continue to scalp the market and to sell call spreads.
Hey man, what you looking for to get short on the SnP?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,989
  • Jun 8, 2015 8:52am Jun 8, 2015 8:52am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hi CG... debit was zero, because of the different expiration dates...
good eye, SDog - sorry I missed that Cecil...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,990
  • Jun 8, 2015 8:57am Jun 8, 2015 8:57am
Quoting The Fool
Hey man, what you looking for to get short on the SnP?
100 sma around $208.50 on SPY ... IVR ambling up, @ 31% woohoo....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,991
  • Jun 8, 2015 9:19am Jun 8, 2015 9:19am
out of the last of SPY bear call spreads - Jun4 $216/$218 - sold for $0.57 & bought out for $0.08
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,992
  • Jun 8, 2015 9:35am Jun 8, 2015 9:35am
looking out to Jul, 39 DTE for SPY, @ 16 deltas is $197 puts, I might have to think IC's and say $197/$195 for $0.21...boy that sucks...I don't know if I can do it....need to get a lot hungrier to eat that much shit....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,993
  • Jun 8, 2015 9:42am Jun 8, 2015 9:42am
who are the crazy mofos keep buying the euro?....not helping the US equity bears....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,994
  • Jun 8, 2015 10:26am Jun 8, 2015 10:26am
Quoting The Fool
out of the last of SPY bear call spreads - Jun4 $216/$218 - sold for $0.57 & bought out for $0.08
That's the way to squeeze the juice.

Quoting The Fool
{quote} Hey man, what you looking for to get short on the SnP?
I would like to see an attempt by /ES to go for 2100... These current prices are basically nowhere to initiate a new position. I need higher prices for short, or lower for longs...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,995
  • Jun 8, 2015 11:36am Jun 8, 2015 11:36am
Quoting StrayDog
I would like to see an attempt by /ES to go for 2100... These current prices are basically nowhere to initiate a new position. I need higher prices for short, or lower for longs...
yep I'm in the same boat. it's ok, I like doing nothing on Mondays...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,996
  • Jun 8, 2015 3:05pm Jun 8, 2015 3:05pm
SPY moving down nicely. Where to sell puts? I'm sure any day the tweet will come in, "Oh joyous day and the Eurozone is saved, Greece gets more billions of free euros, all is good, they will pay later!".....and the SnP bounces 40 pts....hopefully I can catch that turn....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,997
  • Jun 8, 2015 10:49pm Jun 8, 2015 10:49pm
SPY has come down to the 100sma, so let's see if she can bounce. Looking out 39dte to Jul, I see 26 deltas at the $201 puts, a $201/$199 bull put spread credits $0.38, maybe less tomorrow
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-06-08_SPY.png Size: 136 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,998
  • Jun 9, 2015 1:07am Jun 9, 2015 1:07am
Quoting The Fool
who are the crazy mofos keep buying the euro?....not helping the US equity bears....
SERIOUSLY?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,999
  • Jun 9, 2015 2:57am Jun 9, 2015 2:57am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} got the close 95.36, targeting 90.88 which could mean if my analysis are correct a move down to 90.88 get get a visit which may see a minor sell off in the indices and euro and pound moving much higher over the coming weeks, would the Greek news confirm this??????
the continuous pull back in the USD may have something to do with the euro moving higher, USD may get a bounce around 93 if it doesn't then I'm looking at 90.88 area for it to bounce
  • #9,000
  • Jun 9, 2015 8:52am Jun 9, 2015 8:52am
at SPY around $208.10 I sold the Jul SPY $199/$197 puts for $0.32, I saw 23 deltas
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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