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EUR/AUD

  • #1,681
  • Jun 5, 2015 1:05pm Jun 5, 2015 1:05pm
The little bull trade is still alive. I wonder if it will survive the usual volatility of the last few minutes of the week. Will let it prove itself into a real bull, or die trying
  • #1,682
  • Jun 5, 2015 2:37pm Jun 5, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting ItsAtrap
The little bull trade is still alive. I wonder if it will survive the usual volatility of the last few minutes of the week. Will let it prove itself into a real bull, or die trying
I'm not so sure to hold on that one.

Wouldn't be surprised to see 4365 soon. Let's hope that I'm wrong.
  • #1,683
  • Jun 5, 2015 2:47pm Jun 5, 2015 2:47pm
Yeah, I expect it to die most likely. But I will still look for a long next week if that is the case, unless we see major bearish price action such as a break of today's low
  • #1,684
  • Jun 8, 2015 12:37am Jun 8, 2015 12:37am
got stopped out overnight but I got back in long, as there are further bullish setups triggered. I bought at the break of the highs of the small 4-hourly bar (orange line). Stop-loss below the spike lows of the next bar.TP is 2x risk for the 1st half of the trade.

I also have a stop-loss and reverse order, because if this setup fails, I think the short on the break of the bottom of the spike lows will go some way down. If that short triggers, SL would be just above the highs of the bull candle, i.e. 1.4597
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD 4H ff 08Jun15.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #1,685
  • Jun 8, 2015 6:45am Jun 8, 2015 6:45am
Quoting ItsAtrap
got stopped out overnight but I got back in long, as there are further bullish setups triggered. I bought at the break of the highs of the small 4-hourly bar (orange line). Stop-loss below the spike lows of the next bar.TP is 2x risk for the 1st half of the trade. I also have a stop-loss and reverse order, because if this setup fails, I think the short on the break of the bottom of the spike lows will go some way down. If that short triggers, SL would be just above the highs of the bull candle, i.e. 1.4597 {image}
I'm curious how that will work out. I took small one the opposite.
  • #1,686
  • Jun 8, 2015 6:49am Jun 8, 2015 6:49am
I will certainly take the reverse and join you short this pair if the bottom of 1.4497 is broken
  • #1,687
  • Jun 8, 2015 8:03am Jun 8, 2015 8:03am
Quoting ItsAtrap
I will certainly take the reverse and join you short this pair if the bottom of 1.4497 is broken
meaning ??? Downward trend had started ??
Prachait Saxena
  • #1,688
  • Jun 8, 2015 8:07am Jun 8, 2015 8:07am
Oh no! This pair is an uptrend. I just meant that IF price fell below the lows of 1.4497 the whole bull trend of the last several days would be in danger and I would short.

But I viewed this as a low probability trade. I thought long positions are a far higher probability, that's why I bought and I am still long, per my earlier chart. Price is now close to my first take-profit, but hasn't yet hit it. But all points to further move up.
  • #1,689
  • Jun 8, 2015 8:12am Jun 8, 2015 8:12am
Please do not take trades that attempt to guess bottoms and tops amidst strong trends. It is a sure way to destroy your account balance. If you have to trade, trade with the trend.

On what timeframe? On the timeframe that you take the trade in. If the market has been going up in your timeframe, assume that it will keep going up and buy any dips. If the market has been going down, assume that it will keep going down and seek to sell any retracements up.

I do 90% of my trading on the 4-hour chart timeframe. In that timeframe, EUR/AUD has been relentlessly trending up. So look to buy the dips. At the end of last week we concluded 2 legs down to the ascending trendline. So that was a good level to buy and expect the uptrend to continue.
  • #1,690
  • Jun 8, 2015 8:18am Jun 8, 2015 8:18am
here's what I mean trade with the trend, buy the dips: this spike that I saw forming on the 30min charts is a trap for bears. Do not short such formations in strong uptrends. In fact, if you zoom in at say, the 5min chart, you would notice that the bearish spike was just a 2-leg retrace of the current uptrend. Which means, price was highly likely to continue moving up immediately after the spike formed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD ff 30min trap 08Jun2015.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #1,691
  • Jun 8, 2015 10:24am Jun 8, 2015 10:24am
Quoting ItsAtrap
here's what I mean trade with the trend, buy the dips: this spike that I saw forming on the 30min charts is a trap for bears. Do not short such formations in strong uptrends. In fact, if you zoom in at say, the 5min chart, you would notice that the bearish spike was just a 2-leg retrace of the current uptrend. Which means, price was highly likely to continue moving up immediately after the spike formed. {image}
Yeh didn't expected this move. Ohw well. let's see now
  • #1,692
  • Jun 8, 2015 10:30am Jun 8, 2015 10:30am
We win some, we lose some, but so long as there is no over-leveraging and our attempted reward is at least 2x risk we all make money. My 1st TP level has now been hit per my chart and therefore I only have 1/2 of the original position on, with its S/loss at break-even. I think this will keep moving up, so should squeeze more pips out of the move. The commodity currencies are being really weak. Maybe there's bad news coming out of China..who knows.
  • #1,693
  • Jun 8, 2015 5:42pm Jun 8, 2015 5:42pm
The way I see this pair moving in the next several hours is in an tight upward slopping channel.

Trade safe, manage risks! Never bet the farm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD ff channel projection 08Jun2015.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #1,694
  • Jun 8, 2015 6:16pm Jun 8, 2015 6:16pm
Quoting ItsAtrap
The way I see this pair moving in the next several hours is in an tight upward slopping channel. Trade safe, manage risks! Never bet the farm {image}
Commander when will it be a sell? 1.48?
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #1,695
  • Jun 8, 2015 7:47pm Jun 8, 2015 7:47pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Commander when will it be a sell? 1.48?
Maybe sell in 45 minutes....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-06-2015 10-45-00 AM.png Size: 215 KB
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,696
  • Jun 9, 2015 1:31am Jun 9, 2015 1:31am
Good morning all. I woke up to see the EUR/AUD form the uptrending channel. I added to my long at the end of that small 2-legged retracement, before I went to bed. SL of all trades now below the low of that retracement. Such 2-leg pullbacks are very common. Look for them in strong trends. (The chart is a 15minute chart, if this is not clear).

The 'channeling' in the direction of the trend after a very strong and sudden move is very typical of how price tends to move in such situations.
You get exceptions of course. Nothing is certain. But it is what usually happens and in trading that's all you need. To have the probabilities on your side.

Still no sign of reversal. I am long. I do not know when it will be time to short. We are in an uptrend, it is strong and I want to be in the uptrend. I do not want to be trying to guess the top.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD ff 15min 090Jun2015.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #1,697
  • Jun 9, 2015 1:49am Jun 9, 2015 1:49am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Commander when will it be a sell? 1.48?
I don't know. There is no point trying to guess the top at this stage. The train is moving fast in one direction. You are either on it, or make sure you are not standing in its path

If I have to take a guess I'd say that 1.48 will be smashed through and it will keep going up
  • #1,698
  • Jun 9, 2015 7:35am Jun 9, 2015 7:35am
Quoting ItsAtrap
{quote} I don't know. There is no point trying to guess the top at this stage. The train is moving fast in one direction. You are either on it, or make sure you are not standing in its path If I have to take a guess I'd say that 1.48 will be smashed through and it will keep going up
Bearish engulfing on the H4 with a failure to attempt 1.48. A debt deal on Greece would be the last spike up.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #1,699
  • Jun 9, 2015 7:52am Jun 9, 2015 7:52am
No bearish engulfing on my 4H chart, just a big bear candle testing channel trendline. But your chart package may be counting the 4H candles from a different standpoint. Trade what you see. So long as you have a plan, have take-profit at least 2X risk and stick to your plan without overleveraging, things should be OK
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD 4h 09Jun2015.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #1,700
  • Jun 9, 2015 7:55am Jun 9, 2015 7:55am
personally , i think this is a great level to buy again, as we tested the highs of the week's opening gap, channel bottom etc. I got back in long, low SL, big potential reward.
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