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PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

  • #1,001
  • Jun 8, 2015 11:43pm Jun 8, 2015 11:43pm
AUDUSD Warning...
Prices back to the previous consolidation level (area) above the key SR 0.77000. MMS could be have shorts queue order in the area, and then starts to run the shorts from the highs (relative), maybe there will be significant movement on LS. If it is true, then market will fall further may be lower than the nearest consolidation area (RDL). why? I just do approach based on the tendency of the effort done by MMs in the previous higher level of the previous consolidation areas. Just remember, that every highs level of the swing above the key SR which is supported by notable volume can be used as the basis of considerations that indicate the beginning of MMS shorts from the higher level. As we know, that the scheme of the execution order by MMS is BLSH (Buy Low - Sell High), and to do so, they will continue to manipulate the price any time they want.
Since, we never know how MMs will move the price next, This conclusion would only be temporary depending on how PVSRA clues that will emerge in the future based on my observations.

I think, EURUSD has same story as AUDUSD.
MJ
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #1,002
  • Jun 8, 2015 11:48pm Jun 8, 2015 11:48pm
AUDCHF...strong consolidation area in daily...perhaps a further push to test the low?

k
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"the fool and the prophet walk hand in hand..."
  • #1,003
  • Jun 9, 2015 1:32am Jun 9, 2015 1:32am
USDCHF promising for long. I expect some bounce from the 50 ma , Also news for chf soon.

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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #1,004
  • Edited 2:07am Jun 9, 2015 1:44am | Edited 2:07am
AUDUSD Short Trade Open:

MMs put price above whole Level late yesterday and again this AS, taking it up another notch to almost the 1/4 Level above, with notable volume on this move, too. Subsequently, we have bearish PA waves. Price broke down thru the 3/4 Level and then retraced back up to broken support where I made the short entry. Price has continued up further, back up into the most recent consolidation area, where maybe it will remain awhile during the early part of the LS. Cannot tell.

On the Day chart, a better double bottom will exist if the MMs return price back down, lower this time to the 0.7550 area. And that might be their plan.
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  • #1,005
  • Jun 9, 2015 1:58am Jun 9, 2015 1:58am
Quoting Mauro-J
AUDUSD Warning... Prices back to the previous consolidation level (area) above the key SR 0.77000. MMS could be have shorts queue order in the area, and then starts to run the shorts from the highs (relative), maybe there will be significant movement on LS. If it is true, then market will fall further may be lower than the nearest consolidation area (RDL). why? I just do approach based on the tendency of the effort done by MMs in the previous higher level of the previous consolidation areas. Just remember, that every highs level of the swing above...
AUDUSD Short Trade Open:
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PVSRA
  • #1,006
  • Jun 9, 2015 2:23am Jun 9, 2015 2:23am
AUDUSD Comment

For those of you shorting this pair, a thought just came to me......

There is an AUD high impact release coming in the next AS. It could be the trigger for the move that completes taking the price down to the 0.7550 area for a better double bottom. SM might be submitting short orders for this move, with them to be closed in that area. But liquidity will be required for the MMs to fill those orders of SM, which might mean a stop hunt on shorts that have already been coaxed into the market.

If this possibility is actually the situation, then we who are short are going to be the subject of a stop hunt. And this is making me think to close this short trade early and wait to see what happens. The MMs might take price back above the upper whole Level today.

Your comments are welcome.

-tah
  • #1,007
  • Jun 9, 2015 2:28am Jun 9, 2015 2:28am
Quoting traderathome
AUDUSD Comment For those of you shorting this pair, a thought just came to me...... There is an AUD high impact release coming in the next AS. It could be the trigger for the move that completes taking the price down to the 0.7550 area for a better double bottom. SM might be submitting short orders for this move, with them to be closed in that area. But liquidity will be required for the MMs to fill those orders of SM, which might mean a stop hunt on shorts that have already been coaxed into the market. If this possibility is actually the situation,...
AUDUSD Comment:
It can be that the move is just a part of bigger position building for later, so I would close it around RDL..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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PVSRA
  • #1,008
  • Jun 9, 2015 2:28am Jun 9, 2015 2:28am
Quoting traderathome
AUDUSD Short Trade Open: MMs put price above whole Level late yesterday and again this AS, taking it up another notch to almost the 1/4 Level above, with notable volume on this move, too. Subsequently, we have bearish PA waves. Price broke down thru the 3/4 Level and then retraced back up to broken support where I made the short entry. Price has continued up further, back up into the most recent consolidation area, where maybe it will remain awhile during the early part of the LS. Cannot tell. On the Day chart, a better double bottom will exist...
Quoting traderathome
AUDUSD Comment For those of you shorting this pair, a thought just came to me...... There is an AUD high impact release coming in the next AS. It could be the trigger for the move that completes taking the price down to the 0.7550 area for a better double bottom. SM might be submitting short orders for this move, with them to be closed in that area. But liquidity will be required for the MMs to fill those orders of SM, which might mean a stop hunt on shorts that have already been coaxed into the market. If this possibility is actually the situation, then we who are short are going to be the subject of a stop hunt. And this is making me think to close this short trade early and wait to see what happens. The MMs might take price back above the upper whole Level today. Your comments are welcome. -tah
AUDUSD Short Trade Closed:

Manually closed for gain of 17.5 pips average.

Per the post above, I chickened out on this one. Sometimes, playing chess with the MMs can result in over thinking things. Well, better to be safe than sorry. One thing is for sure, though. If the MMs take price back above the upper whole Level and stall it there, there is a darn good chance SM short orders are getting filled, and that will be a clue for a new short trade starting in that higher area.
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  • #1,009
  • Jun 9, 2015 2:38am Jun 9, 2015 2:38am
Eurjpy..
price is supported at whole number...
Too early for short?
Should MM short at better price?
This is what I'm thinking..
MM will bringproce higher up to hunt the earlier short trader..
and the suckering earlier...so they get both...
just the same as usdjpy previously. .

*sorry my chart from the handphone..
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  • #1,010
  • Edited 2:50am Jun 9, 2015 2:39am | Edited 2:50am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} AUDUSD Short Trade Open: {image}
AUDUSD Short Trade Update:
Lower position closed. I don't see a danger of too big SL hunt, just SL in the shape of retrace to the trend.. quarter level. SL at +BE.
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We can never know, but I suspect they will be bullish again around the lower whole level..
PVSRA
  • #1,011
  • Edited 2:58am Jun 9, 2015 2:42am | Edited 2:58am
AUDUSD Long Trade Open:

Per above posts, I am now bullish on this. First I entered when price reached previous support and waffled there. Then the MMs suddenly whacked price below the half Level, where I added. I don't like to add anymore. I am trying to be more patient and not do this, but I did it again on this trade, which if the MMs are indeed bears looking to fill SM short orders, then they are going to take the price back higher, maybe back above the upper whole Level. This would be a move back up of 50+ pips, and maybe the MMs took price down that low from the upper whole Level in order to sucker SM shorts into the market too soon, so they could be subjected to a stop hunt, giving the MMs liquidity to fill SM shorts above the upper whole Level.

Time will tell. And indeed, there is sufficient time for the MMs to play this, to linger price low to sucker more SM shorts into the market too soon, and later run the stop hunt on them and then hold price high to sucker DM longs into the market for more liquidity for filling SM short orders above the upper whole Level.

This is all highly speculative,......playing chess with the MMs. Now Mauro-J,.....more active then me, younger too I suspect.....enjoys dancing with them!
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  • #1,012
  • Jun 9, 2015 2:51am Jun 9, 2015 2:51am
My favorite setup appeared on two pairs this LO:

-short Eurusd
-long Usdcad

On Eurusd position building area was around whole number with volume above it. Then on LO red high volume wide spread candle appeared breaking out of position building are which was my trigger for short.

On Usdcad position building area was also around whole number but with substantial volume below it. On LO green high volume wide spread candle appeared breaking out of position building are which was my trigger for long.

Marijan
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  • #1,013
  • Edited 3:35am Jun 9, 2015 2:53am | Edited 3:35am
this is my todays trade,i close manually do to the possible retrace above full number in the Us sesion.I would entry again if meet the short conditions.The todays short entry do to plenty activity above full number in AS and FO.

I would like to thanks TAH , Mauro,fisher,Marijan
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...for all the effforts to help all people to learn forex
  • #1,014
  • Edited 3:31am Jun 9, 2015 2:59am | Edited 3:31am
EURJPY Short closed at half level...35 pips...perhaps closed too early?

k
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"the fool and the prophet walk hand in hand..."
  • #1,015
  • Jun 9, 2015 3:18am Jun 9, 2015 3:18am
Quoting kaoscoded
AUDCHF...any thoughts? 15min appears to be consolidating at the quarter level but the higher time frames suggesting a further push down? anyone? k {image} {image} {image} {image}
AUDCHF...move downwards from consolidation on 15min:
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"the fool and the prophet walk hand in hand..."
  • #1,016
  • Jun 9, 2015 3:27am Jun 9, 2015 3:27am
Quoting kaoscoded
hi guys...any thoughts on NZDCAD? still trying to grasp the concept...please forgive the bottom indicator...nothing more than a way to see buying and selling activity in real time at a glance...intended to remove it prior to snapshot before submission just want to know if i'm on the right track with my perception of things any input would be greatly appreciated k {image} {image}

NZDCAD UPDATE:
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"the fool and the prophet walk hand in hand..."
  • #1,017
  • Jun 9, 2015 3:34am Jun 9, 2015 3:34am
Please, Clean Chart Postings

I PM'd this recently to one of us, but I can see more need to be aware:

0. Create Desktop file with some name like "Screenshots Jun 2015".
1. Click on "File" in MT4 banner.
2. Click on "Save as Picture".
3. Check "Active chart (as is).
4. Uncheck rectangle about MQL5.
5. Click ok.
6. Save to the Desktop file you created, from which you can retrieve for attaching to FF posts.

This will save a picture of just your chart, without all the distracting garbage that surrounds it! If any are not doing this, please start doing it for the sake of this thread's objective to be the best teaching text book ever!

tah
  • #1,018
  • Jun 9, 2015 3:58am Jun 9, 2015 3:58am
GBPUSD Short Trade Open:

Earlier, price broke low the whole Level. Price retraced to broken support above it and is again below the whole Level, where I have opened this short trade. I should think it possible the MMs will take price again to the lower whole level area. That is why my TP is there.
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  • #1,019
  • Jun 9, 2015 4:15am Jun 9, 2015 4:15am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} AUDUSD Short Trade Update: Lower position closed. I don't see a danger of too big SL hunt, just SL in the shape of retrace to the trend.. quarter level. SL at +BE. {image} We can never know, but I suspect they will be bullish again around the lower whole level..
AUDUSD SL hit:
It is exactly what I had in mind... Opened smaller short, with a room to add..
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PVSRA
  • #1,020
  • Jun 9, 2015 4:20am Jun 9, 2015 4:20am
Quoting traderathome
AUDUSD Long Trade Open: Per above posts, I am now bullish on this. First I entered when price reached previous support and waffled there. Then the MMs suddenly whacked price below the half Level, where I added. I don't like to add anymore. I am trying to be more patient and not do this, but I did it again on this trade, which if the MMs are indeed bears looking to fill SM short orders, then they are going to take the price back higher, maybe back above the upper whole Level. This would be a move back up of 50+ pips, and maybe the MMs took price...
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