A Losing Week | Forex Factory

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A Losing Week

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 11, 2006 3:50pm Aug 11, 2006 3:50pm
I don't know about any of you guys that are consistently profitable, but I've had a poor week. Not only did my intraday strategy that I trade not do well, my swing trades were even worse. And most of it because I made two or three mistakes that ended up causing me to front-run and I ended up being wrong.

Losses are a part of the game, but for those of you who are consistent, and then have that loss, if you're like me, you instantly feel like you've been humbled...

I expect down weeks, but not like the one I had this week when I tried to force the market to do my bidding.

It's these times that I have to remember the words from Boris' blog:

Ben Mezrich, the author of the book - a terrific writer – notes, "No matter the count the cards could go bad. Over time winning was inevitable. But in the short run the game could either way. Even math left room for luck." I love that last line because as traders it should always help us to remember that we are nether as good nor as bad as our last trade would indicate.

Don’t let the losses shake you.

Amen.<!-- / message -->
Mr. Trend
  • #2
  • Aug 11, 2006 4:05pm Aug 11, 2006 4:05pm
Quoting Mr Trend
I don't know about any of you guys that are consistently profitable, but I've had a poor week. Not only did my intraday strategy that I trade not do well, my swing trades were even worse. And most of it because I made two or three mistakes that ended up causing me to front-run and I ended up being wrong.

Losses are a part of the game, but for those of you who are consistent, and then have that loss, if you're like me, you instantly feel like you've been humbled...

I expect down weeks, but not like the one I had this week when I tried to force the market to do my bidding.

It's these times that I have to remember the words from Boris' blog:

Ben Mezrich, the author of the book - a terrific writer – notes, "No matter the count the cards could go bad. Over time winning was inevitable. But in the short run the game could either way. Even math left room for luck." I love that last line because as traders it should always help us to remember that we are nether as good nor as bad as our last trade would indicate.

Don’t let the losses shake you.

Amen.<!-- / message -->


Amen to that.Great quote. I feel ya.
  • #3
  • Aug 11, 2006 4:15pm Aug 11, 2006 4:15pm
Quoting Mr Trend
I don't know about any of you guys that are consistently profitable, but I've had a poor week. Not only did my intraday strategy that I trade not do well, my swing trades were even worse. And most of it because I made two or three mistakes that ended up causing me to front-run and I ended up being wrong.

Losses are a part of the game, but for those of you who are consistent, and then have that loss, if you're like me, you instantly feel like you've been humbled...

I expect down weeks, but not like the one I had this week when I tried to force the market to do my bidding.

It's these times that I have to remember the words from Boris' blog:

Ben Mezrich, the author of the book - a terrific writer – notes, "No matter the count the cards could go bad. Over time winning was inevitable. But in the short run the game could either way. Even math left room for luck." I love that last line because as traders it should always help us to remember that we are nether as good nor as bad as our last trade would indicate.

Don’t let the losses shake you.

Amen.<!-- / message -->
This sort of thing does at least make you refocus, well it did this week for me.
I returned on Monday from a week's (working) holiday, and jumped to the screens too quickly. I'd told myself in the past to leave it a few days to get back into the rythm by simply watching the charts, but you know how it is, you can't resist.
After several losers I sat back, went to the daily & weekly charts, studied and really thought about what I was doing and finished the week slightly ahead.
It's good to get rid of the bile in public, it sure helps newbies like me to know the good guys get it wrong now and then as well.
Thanks for sharing
Peter
  • #4
  • Aug 11, 2006 4:56pm Aug 11, 2006 4:56pm
The week started bad for me too, by today I've lost confidance in this week, and guess what? Today I had some good signals and I've traded only one... If i've traded how I was suposed to do it would have been a winning week.
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #5
  • Aug 11, 2006 5:35pm Aug 11, 2006 5:35pm
This thread caught my eye. I am curious if you have had the opportunity/time to evaluate the week and what might have been the cause (besides the "rush" or "force"ing into/of trades?) Was there something in the market this week that took the trading model by suprise? I'd be interested to know.

For myself, demoing my trade model this summer, this was actually a week that i ended this morning at 9amISH Pacific time closing out my last trade in profit on the E/U and earlier in profit on the E/J. In all it was a good week and I believe the trades in entered were well placed in accordance to my model. Bottom line i ended the week feeling like i'd gotten my groove on. : )

Take care all and have a good weekend.
Thom
  • #6
  • Aug 11, 2006 5:39pm Aug 11, 2006 5:39pm
I have bad weeks all the time, trying to reduce them by learning from my mistakes. But at any moment the market can take ur money its just a risk you have to accept. this week I stuck to a long term position strat on the pound, infact im still in this trade I got in short originally at the 9093 level, after the US interest rate annoucment and have stayed short, I think we could be in a downwave cycle at the moment. Sometime theres just so much volitility that using a tight 20 or even 30 pips stop just gets guned down, im trying to adapt my style more to elliot wave theory. If you study it youll see that market moves according to elliot waves and Fibonacci extension and retracement cycles. Very good knowledge to understand.
  • #7
  • Aug 11, 2006 6:02pm Aug 11, 2006 6:02pm
This was a rollercoaster week for me....

...first I wait patiently on the "surefire" trades (leave Monday out) which was good...

...but then I blew it on Tuesday! Yes. I surfed the FOMC announcement and ....i could bite myself...this time I did it getting into more risk (the last news announcements went wonderful for me with the "method" I'm using...it worked all the time) and now...when I most needed to be methodically....I did it sloopy and careless...and the result was I lost 1/3 of my account on ONE D.... TRADE!

.....The next days (for the rest of the week) you know what gets you: FEAR. I did a few real trades and out of FEAR I end up all of them with +- 0 - no losses and no winners. So I go back to demo trading and there...I be all disciplined and rule following and carefull....I DID ALL WINNERS! Almost 1,400 US$ + on a 10,000 US$ demo account....avoided whipsaws....was on the right position with YEN moves and GBP (I didn't knew about the terrorist attacks...but was on the right side of the move)....

......All of this makes me feel uncertain......stupid feeling. I have to get rid of it over the weekend.

Wish you all luck, peace and pips if it makes you happy.

Peter.
  • #8
  • Aug 11, 2006 6:34pm Aug 11, 2006 6:34pm
Most of your trading actions is based on what you have developed in terms of your skills and what you were exposed to. At times, a shift occurs in the types of price action. When something your doing starts failing, but was working consistently in the past weeks, then something has changed in the market that your trading in. For example, usd/jpy was consistently predictable to a certain degree in price action. Something odd occurred over the past week and a half. When my trading mindset anticipated a price action of a certain nature, I would obtain it, but the price action was very fleeting. It almost seemed as if someone was toying with the market. The only entity that can even do this, is a large central bank or a group of hedge funds, with coattail rides on their wings creating that price action.

If what you do has been working but changes, then you might have to consider, the market participant s or structure has changed.
Price is the only indicator.
  • #9
  • Aug 11, 2006 6:41pm Aug 11, 2006 6:41pm
I noticed this week we had a great ranging market. I kept my positions open and eventually got to my target. For example today I was -60 pips on GBP but held it together and eventually it got back to where i knew it would go. But have a lot of learning to do. Yeah dont let your losses discourage you but take this opportunity to learn.
  • #10
  • Aug 11, 2006 6:59pm Aug 11, 2006 6:59pm
Quoting Mr Trend
I don't know about any of you guys that are consistently profitable, but I've had a poor week. Not only did my intraday strategy that I trade not do well, my swing trades were even worse. And most of it because I made two or three mistakes that ended up causing me to front-run and I ended up being wrong.

Losses are a part of the game, but for those of you who are consistent, and then have that loss, if you're like me, you instantly feel like you've been humbled...

I expect down weeks, but not like the one I had this week when I tried to force the market to do my bidding.

It's these times that I have to remember the words from Boris' blog:

Ben Mezrich, the author of the book - a terrific writer – notes, "No matter the count the cards could go bad. Over time winning was inevitable. But in the short run the game could either way. Even math left room for luck." I love that last line because as traders it should always help us to remember that we are nether as good nor as bad as our last trade would indicate.

Don’t let the losses shake you.

<!-- / message --> Amen.
Man, I feel your pain


what mistakes you're talking about???

It's good to share the good and the bad so we can all learn from it
Peace
  • #11
  • Aug 11, 2006 7:03pm Aug 11, 2006 7:03pm
this week i started very good, with 80% of winning trades. however, just before the black thursday, it's all getting worse. Just before the news, i said to myself that i didnt prepared market to go south. so i put my buy stop order and it was triggered, unfortunately i forgot to set stop loss level, and before i knew it, market all the way go against me. then i heard there was a UK teror. huh.... dont dare to take cut loss and here, i am in pain. To stay on the positive side, it is a good lesson to learn as a newbie in fx.
  • #12
  • Aug 11, 2006 7:40pm Aug 11, 2006 7:40pm
My FXDD broker is bad. I can't place or exit any order during the rush hour.
  • #13
  • Aug 11, 2006 11:12pm Aug 11, 2006 11:12pm
Last week was bad for me but I was able to slowly regain losses this week. All thanks mostly to GBP!

Win some loose some - hopefully, for the coming weeks, we win more than we loose.
  • #14
  • Aug 11, 2006 11:56pm Aug 11, 2006 11:56pm
Quoting Mr Trend
<!-- / message -->Amen.
Ok. For those that find this post irregular because it happens to you all the time... Hopefully you are still demoing or trading Live Micro Minis.

For the rest... of us...that have progressed to the point of having a trade entry criteria "Check List"...
Get it on there... "Why am I taking this trade?"

If the answer is "Cause I need to get some Money".. [Back or otherwise..] Flags should be flying in metaphore.

Money Management should include the harsh reality to expose the fact that "You are out of sync with the markets"
Pick a time frame. It doesn't really matter what it is, that's up to you. 1 Day, 3 days or two hours. If you lose [ later you might add Gain] '$x' within that timeframe, You Are Finished Trading For Twice That Time Frame. Sounds harsh, I know, but if you are forced, by self discipline, to watch the market while being effectivly barred from trading, it's amazing how quickly you will get back into sync.

Upside, regaining self confidence, stops the bleeding, offers time to re-evalute your method....AND... You get off the train that has wrecked 99% of all accounts that were "Blown Up."

Downside, the rent will have to come from somewhere else.{which it sould be doing anyway}

If you have never experienced this exasperation...good on you... If you do... realize it is an opportunity to improve, but not an easy one.

Mr. Trend, believe me when I say you have poked the public in the eye with their own stick. More people have done exactly the same as you have this week than would care to announce it and kudos to you for doing so. The vast majority would rather hide their wart as opposed to offering a warning that warts are out there.
  • #15
  • Aug 12, 2006 2:56am Aug 12, 2006 2:56am
Quoting Bemac
Ok. For those that find this post irregular because it happens to you all the time... Hopefully you are still demoing or trading Live Micro Minis.

For the rest... of us...that have progressed to the point of having a trade entry criteria "Check List"...
Get it on there... "Why am I taking this trade?"

If the answer is "Cause I need to get some Money".. [Back or otherwise..] Flags should be flying in metaphore.

Money Management should include the harsh reality to expose the fact that "You are out of sync with the markets"
Pick a time frame. It doesn't really matter what it is, that's up to you. 1 Day, 3 days or two hours. If you lose [ later you might add Gain] '$x' within that timeframe, You Are Finished Trading For Twice That Time Frame. Sounds harsh, I know, but if you are forced, by self discipline, to watch the market while being effectivly barred from trading, it's amazing how quickly you will get back into sync.

Upside, regaining self confidence, stops the bleeding, offers time to re-evalute your method....AND... You get off the train that has wrecked 99% of all accounts that were "Blown Up."

Downside, the rent will have to come from somewhere else.{which it sould be doing anyway}

If you have never experienced this exasperation...good on you... If you do... realize it is an opportunity to improve, but not an easy one.

Mr. Trend, believe me when I say you have poked the public in the eye with their own stick. More people have done exactly the same as you have this week than would care to announce it and kudos to you for doing so. The vast majority would rather hide their wart as opposed to offering a warning that warts are out there.
Excellent reply Bemac..couldn't have said it better myself. When I first started trading FX, I had a rule that said if I had 3 successive losing trades, then I was barred from trading for 3x the timeframe (hourly). Believe me it focuses the mind!

More importantly, I'd like to stress to all the newbies out there that money management and risk:reward really are the keys to success or failure. Due to the fact that I trade with a 1:3 Risk Reward, I can "afford" to have three out of four losing trades and still be at breakeven. Added to the fact that by not risking more than 3% of my pot on a trade, I can preserve my account in the long run.

All of the above points are not new or rocket science, but I remember very well from my newbie days how I continued to ignore this advice, choosing instead to "gamble" as opposed to "trade".

One of the posts on this thread mentioned sitting on -60 pips on Cable and it eventually turning round. Unless you are position trading and trading of MINIMUM 4hr, you shouldn't be sitting on a -60 pip loss, particularly on Cable. In fact sitting on losses in the hope that they'll turn around is the shorcut to blow out. Remember, Cable beats up newbies for fun, believe me I know! (I blew 2 $10,000 demo accounts in the space of 3 weeks).

All of this is said to help and not to criticise. Hope some of you find it useful.
  • #16
  • Aug 12, 2006 4:02am Aug 12, 2006 4:02am
Quoting Mr Trend
Losses are a part of the game, but for those of you who are consistent, and then have that loss, if you're like me, you instantly feel like you've been humbled...

I expect down weeks, but not like the one I had this week when I tried to force the market to do my bidding.
<!-- / message -->
Sounds like over-confidence.
Take a few days off to clear your mind and re-group.

Take Care
Habeeb
Attached Image
Keeping it Simple
  • #17
  • Aug 12, 2006 8:54am Aug 12, 2006 8:54am
Hi MrTrend,

Thanks for the bold thread. Yes we all have losing trades and losing weeks. I have learned through the years to help mitigate this, I have put myself on a salary and treat this as a business. My trades are my sales and my loses are my cost of doing business. Through routine review and constant attention to business, I have had more successful trades than losing trades... To me I try not to get caught up in the emotion of winning or of losing... It is always another trade and must be judged on it's merits to determine whether the trade meets the criteria of a profitable sale for the business. That has worked well for me...

I have owned a business most of my adult life and the model is just a natural extension of my training..

IMO, Scott
  • #18
  • Aug 12, 2006 12:04pm Aug 12, 2006 12:04pm
Quoting Zuke
One of the posts on this thread mentioned sitting on -60 pips on Cable and it eventually turning round. Unless you are position trading and trading of MINIMUM 4hr, you shouldn't be sitting on a -60 pip loss, particularly on Cable. In fact sitting on losses in the hope that they'll turn around is the shorcut to blow out. Remember, Cable beats up newbies for fun, believe me I know! (I blew 2 $10,000 demo accounts in the space of 3 weeks).

All of this is said to help and not to criticise. Hope some of you find it useful.
I respectfully disagree. There are things like dollar cost averaging, average-up/down, and hedging. On GBPUSD to be -60 pips on a trade is not a big deal, (not a big deal at all in fact) if you can manage the trade properly. Unless you want to give yourself an instant heart attack, being down on a trade and working it back is part of the game, at least its part of my game.

Just like stocks, currency trading allows for adverse market action to be used to one's advantage, as long as you 1. Hedge when proper 2. USE THE LAW OF AVERAGES to your advantage. Obviously you should never trade with such a large % of your account you are going to have to worry about margin call - so here is my SIMPLIFIED explaination of how to get out of a bad entry:

For this example lets say Im trading GBPUSD and I go short from 1.8900 and the price moves against me up to a resistance of 1.8980. In your case, you would have hit S/L and closed trades and LOST hard earned money. When I open that first trade I would also set a limit buy (yes going long) position about 25 pips above my first trade, in this case 1.8925. This way, even though the price moves against me, The most I am going to be down is a maximum of 25 pips, or the difference between the 2 trades (this is my version of S/L). Now, when the price finds resistance and shows signs of a reversal you open another short position. This moves your short entry average up (thus is called averaging up) to 1.8940. When the price reverses you can now take profit 40 pips away from where you entered the market poorly. Not to mention your hedge position which you could close for enough pips to make yourself happy until your shorts close. Especially trading GBPUSD, there is so much volitility that this kind of a strategy really works. Of course like I already said you can't do this if you are putting in a large % of your account on the first trade. Trade small - pick up lots of pips - build build build.

I made 178 net pips this week on GBPUSD on a real account. My theory is that none of us really "know" where the market is going to go - ever. This method allows you to use adverse moves in the market to your benefit. When people close their losing trade bc they are down 60 pips guess where that money goes? Yes - to the people who managed their trades
  • #19
  • Aug 12, 2006 2:37pm Aug 12, 2006 2:37pm
I had an over-all net week, but I clipped my own wings come thursday sadly. Got reckless with a new system and thought I knew better than it did, which I didn't obviously. Clipped my profit for the week in halve, but this fact kept me able to smirk at myself and pack it in instead of grabbing the biggest stick I could find and trying to run after the market.

"Friends don't let friends hate trade."
$5 and a profound understanding of the quip to the person who knows what word I replaced with trade.
  • #20
  • Aug 12, 2006 4:42pm Aug 12, 2006 4:42pm
"Friends don't let friends hate Hate."
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