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PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

  • #901
  • Edited 8:20am Jun 7, 2015 8:06am | Edited 8:20am
Quoting traderathome
A PVSRA Colorful Reminder....
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} USDCAD Short Trade Open: I was not at PC for two days becouse of my regular job, that's why I didn't close this trade. But when I look at this now, there are many SL hunts above the whole level. Maybe they bring it up again, but it looks like more downside to me, considering how much liquidity they got.. Did you close it becouse it was friday? {image}
USDCAD

Fisher755,

You can see from the picture that was posted in the first referenced post that the trade is still open! And, yes, I agree that it is likely the MMs will take price below the lower whole number and maybe below the next lower half number. Why? What we could be into now is a Wyckoff Distribution phase that could go on for days, even weeks. A 150-200 pips range might be the plan. The wider the range the more room the MMs have to play the price in order to help sucker in DM so that huge SM orders to reverse can be filled. If so, it makes sense to extend the bottom of the range now that they have price moving lower. Time will tell.

tah
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Jun 2015 - 056.png Size: 20 KB
  • #902
  • Edited 8:27am Jun 7, 2015 8:15am | Edited 8:27am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} USDCAD Fisher755, You can see from the picture that was posted that the trade is still open! tah


Computer on my shoulders still warming up..

...and never achieves the hights of the speed of your computers rotation..
PVSRA
  • #903
  • Jun 7, 2015 8:22am Jun 7, 2015 8:22am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Computer on my shoulder still warming up..
Fisher755,

I always find Sunday excuses to be heavenly hilarious.......

tah
  • #904
  • Edited 8:49am Jun 7, 2015 8:31am | Edited 8:49am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EURUSD (Revised) With more time to cogitate on this one, I am sort of "neutral" for now on it. I was tending towards bearishness, but take a look at the H4 chart. The H4 chart shows that after all was said and done on NFP Friday, the MMs only placed the price in a very neutral spot. Yes, it looks like they ran price below whole, then below half, and back up to above whole,......which could be an indication of bulls. This is contrary to my referenced post. Conflicting PVSRA, at the least. But, and maybe more true is that from here the MMs...
EURUSD Comment:
I see a possible double H&S on H1..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 61 KB


Right S2 still forming..

This all bring us to monitor EURCAD, which could be a winner next week.. and looks the most bearish on H1 and Day chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADDaily.png Size: 65 KB


... computer warming up slowly..
PVSRA
  • #905
  • Jun 7, 2015 8:45am Jun 7, 2015 8:45am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} EURUSD Comment: I see a possible double H&S on H1.. {image} Right S2 still forming..
EURUSD

Fisher755,

Good observation! I totally missed it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 61 KB
  • #906
  • Jun 7, 2015 9:00am Jun 7, 2015 9:00am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EURUSD Fisher755, Good observation! I totally missed it. {image}
I totally missed it.

..blody sunday's fault, what can we do..
.. a bit of brainstorming helps warming up.
PVSRA
  • #907
  • Edited 9:32am Jun 7, 2015 9:15am | Edited 9:32am
Quoting Fisher755
This all bring us to monitor EURCAD, which could be a winner next week.. and looks the most bearish on H1 and Day chart.
EURCAD

But, take another look at the Day chart. This is a true inverted H&S, and now the MMs have the price back down to the neckline. SM could be intending to reload for another great bull run.

So, mixed signals. USDCAD looks bearish. Is it? If it is, will it go south due to strengthening CAD or weakening USD? EURUSD short term looks bearish, but longer term bullish. What happens next there? If EUR goes bear, even short term, and CAD goes bull, even short term, then this EURCAD H&S might not take off for a while. But, then too, that might be part of the plan to reload longs before the H&S does take off. Impossible to know, and the first day or so this week might be filled with MMs attempts at suckering DM. And right now, it is hard to discern what is DM and what is SM.

As regards this pair though, it is certainly worth keeping an eye on. If price drops further (possibly SM placing long orders lower) and later comes back to NL, this could indeed be a whopping good long trade.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADDaily.png Size: 65 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Jun 2015 - 057.png Size: 31 KB
  • #908
  • Jun 7, 2015 9:27am Jun 7, 2015 9:27am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EURCAD But, take another look at the Day chart. This is a true inverted H&S, and now the MMs have the price back down to the neckline. SM could be intending to reload for another great bull run. So, mixed signals. USDCAD looks bearish. Is it? If it is, will it go south due to strengthening CAD or weakening USD? EURUSD short term looks bearish, but longer term bullish. What happens next there? If EUR goes bear, even short term, and CAD goes bull, even short term, then this EURCAD H&S might not take off for a while. But, then too, that might...
EURCAD:
I saw it, but did not measure and tought that it played out.. my mistake.
But there is something else interesting I noticed..

Look at the distance of the swing before and the latest swing , it is exactly the same distance! Does it mean anything, that could influence the Picture?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCADH4.png Size: 85 KB


That's why I tought it played out just by looking at it (without measuring).
PVSRA
  • #909
  • Edited 9:43am Jun 7, 2015 9:28am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting traderathome
A PVSRA Colorful Reminder I have always said the key thing to note about PVA events is whether price seems to be favoring higher or lower prices when the PVA event occurs. PVA events tend to appear when price swings either high, or low. If swinging high, a PVA event can appear for bars moving price up towards the area of highs that will be obtained by a coming bar. It can appear on the coming bar that puts in a significant high. And it can appear on a later bar that involves price moving down from the area of high prices established. When we see...
Agree TAH,
Hopefully this ss immages can give a clearer picture for the folks especially the Newcomers.
Notice:

  1. The zone drawed in my ss immage is just as likely that certainly is not absolute.
  2. We will never know what will be done by MMS if they get in these areas.
  3. One thing for sure is that these areas is an important area as the lows and highs area based on certain swings in the past. And there is the possibility of prices going into those areas, but I do not know when and how the MMS will do.
  4. For me, the highs and lows point of the swing in this image is relative, it depending on which perspective we view it. Time frame used will also determine the pattern of swing and the relativity of the highs and lows.
  5. Do not just pay attention to the zone (i marked) with a sensational sight (the views without regard to the important specific aspects in it), but more than that think about "why the zone was marked as an important level area?" Take a look at the zone as the highs and lows areas (relative) which also appears increased activity (relative) based on the notable candles suite indicator corresponding to the notable tick volume, also pay attention to the key SR (1, 1/2, 1/4, 3/4) when the notable activity occured in the important level area marked. Just remember, The notable activities is a kind of factor as the basis of approach that MMS is actively involved in transactions in the market at that time - (on the certain key SR - in the certain important area level as highs or lows of the certain swing of the price).

If I missed something in this comment so it does not fit with what you mean as you mentioned, I hope you criticize me to correct it TAH.
Regards
MJ

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Zone UCAD.png Size: 49 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 57 KB
"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #910
  • Jun 7, 2015 9:45am Jun 7, 2015 9:45am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} EURCAD: I saw it, but did not measure and tought that it played out.. my mistake. But there is something else interesting I noticed.. Look at the distance of the swing before and the latest swing , it is exactly the same distance! Does it mean anything, that could influence the Picture? {image} That's why I tought it played out just by looking at it (without measuring).
EURCAD

It is not exactly the same distance, but sort of close, and what some refer to as evidence the market is "fractal" (equal distance moves) the knowledge of which can also be used to help select a TP for the "next leg up". We even use the H&S distance between the Head and the NL as the yardstick to run from the NL to draw a parallel line representing the possible target for the H&S once it is in play. But even then, the actual H&S price move might only approximate this target when all is done. These are more examples of randomness in the market while there also being an overall sense that there is not so much randomness in the bigger picture.

tah
  • #911
  • Edited 10:11am Jun 7, 2015 9:55am | Edited 10:11am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EURCAD It is not exactly the same distance, but sort of close, and what some refer to as evidence the market is "fractal" (equal distance moves) the knowledge of which can also be used to help select a TP for the "next leg up". We even use the H&S distance between the Head and the NL as the yardstick to run from the NL to draw a parallel line representing the possible target for the H&S once it is in play. But even then, the actual H&S price move might only approximate this target when all is done. These are more examples of randomness in...
Thank you, Tah.

Can you provide us a chart ilustration about this?

EURCAD:
As regards this pair though, it is certainly worth keeping an eye on. If price drops further (possibly SM placing long orders lower) and later comes back to NL, this could indeed be a whopping good long trade.

OK, then I plan to jump in on this pair only if this scenario plays out.
PVSRA
  • #912
  • Edited 10:08am Jun 7, 2015 9:56am | Edited 10:08am
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} Agree TAH, Hopefully this ss immages can give a clearer picture for the folks especially the Newcomers. Notice: The zone drawed in my ss immage is just as likely that certainly is not absolute. We will never know what will be done by MMS if they get in these areas. One thing for sure is that these areas is an important area as the lows and highs area based on certain swings in the past. And there is the possibility of prices going into those areas, but I do not know when and how the MMS will do. For me, the highs and lows point of the swing...
USDCAD

Mauro-J,

Great post. It provides further example of how to use PVSRA on larger TFs to get an overall feel as to what the MMs and SM might be up to.

It is good for us all to recognize that a choppy market is the product of the MMs manipulating price. They do this to match orders, which is a polite way of saying that they do this to sucker DM for the benefit of SM (and themselves, of course, being the most SM of them all). And, when we are viewing lower TF chart (say M30 on down) and we see a lot of up/down price action, too difficult to read, we should instinctively say to ourselves, "Aha! A choppy market!" and know that the only way we are going to get a feel for what the MMs and SM might be up to is to move to larger TFS and analyze for price zones above and below that might tell us a "story" that could explain why there is time being spent now to apparently build positions.

And, if we cannot figure what side those positions are for, but we can see the above and below price zones to which the MMs might return price, then we can simply wait for a convincing move out of current consolidation and towards one or the other of those price zones. And if a stop hunt move comes as part of the consolidation before a true breakout, then we have even further confirmation of direction, and even possibly distance, if there is more than one price zone possible in the true breakout direction. This is because the extra effort by the MMs to run the stop hunt might be an indication they plan on the more distant price zone as their target.

We cannot know how the MMs will move price, but we can do PVSRA and get clues to help us decide on what direction we prefer to trade and then patiently await the right time to do so.

tah
  • #913
  • Jun 7, 2015 9:58am Jun 7, 2015 9:58am
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} Agree TAH, Hopefully this ss immages can give a clearer picture for the folks especially the Newcomers. Notice: The zone drawed in my ss immage is just as likely that certainly is not absolute. We will never know what will be done by MMS if they get in these areas. One thing for sure is that these areas is an important area as the lows and highs area based on certain swings in the past. And there is the possibility of prices going into those areas, but I do not know when and how the MMS will do. For me, the highs and lows point of the swing...
MJ,

Your computer working just fine on Sundays..
PVSRA
  • #914
  • Jun 7, 2015 10:16am Jun 7, 2015 10:16am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} MJ, Your computer working just fine on Sundays..
You need to assemble your computer with a very large fan in it so that can still work well on Sunday...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 577 KB
"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #915
  • Jun 7, 2015 10:17am Jun 7, 2015 10:17am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} EURCAD: fractal..... Can you provide us a chart ilustration about this?
Yes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Jun 2015 - 058.png Size: 36 KB
  • #916
  • Jun 7, 2015 10:22am Jun 7, 2015 10:22am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Yes. {image}
Wow, great,

next level chart to study in this great texbook.

Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} You need to assemble your computer with a very large fan in it so that can still work well on Sunday... {image}
MJ,

I hope it is not your real Picture!!!!
PVSRA
  • #917
  • Jun 7, 2015 10:32am Jun 7, 2015 10:32am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} USDCAD Mauro-J, Great post. It provides further example of how to use PVSRA on larger TFs to get an overall feel as to what the MMs and SM might be up to. It is good for us all to recognize that a choppy market is the product of the MMs manipulating price. They do this to match orders, which is a polite way of saying that they do this to sucker DM for the benefit of SM (and themselves, of course, being the most SM of them all). And, when we are viewing lower TF chart (say M30 on down) and we see a lot of up/down price action,...
Great
concrete and detailed measures to analyze..; everyone should read it as a guide to reading all possibilities in the market as a holistically market reading.
My thanks TAH
MJ
"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #918
  • Jun 7, 2015 10:35am Jun 7, 2015 10:35am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Wow, great, next level chart to study in this great texbook. {quote} MJ, I hope it is not your real Picture!!!!
Of course not,
just as a joke so that our brains a little fresh in this sundays ...
"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #919
  • Jun 7, 2015 11:00am Jun 7, 2015 11:00am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} USDCAD Short Trade Open: I was not at PC for two days becouse of my regular job, that's why I didn't close this trade. But when I look at this now, there are many SL hunts above the whole level. Maybe they bring it up again, but it looks like more downside to me, considering how much liquidity they got.. Did you close it becouse it was friday? {image} Maybe I'm wrong but I would expect they bring it below the lower whole level and make a LL again..
USDCAD:
Based on all discused with my friends on a nice Sunday, I can watch if my TP that makes sense plays out ..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH1.png Size: 71 KB
PVSRA
  • #920
  • Jun 7, 2015 11:50am Jun 7, 2015 11:50am
You guys Tah, Fisher, Mauro, are superb at this, I thought PVSRA was easy once I get the template, this damn thing actually requires me to apply my feeble brain ARRRRGH!
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