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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #801
  • Aug 11, 2006 2:09pm Aug 11, 2006 2:09pm
Thanks, David

I hope your week was successful too. And have a great weekend!

I've started to perform better by being more careful and getting much more sleep. I hope I can continue to improve. It seems likely. We are also doing some interesting research which could provide some valuable keys.

I agree with you that we are due for a bounce on the EUR/USD about now.

I don't know anything about ema's or candlestick patterns, but Elliott Waves interest me very much. I will try to learn how to make pictures of them.

Onward to riches!
  • #802
  • Aug 11, 2006 2:26pm Aug 11, 2006 2:26pm
Friday August 11, 2006 15:15 ET

TS#136 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1247

Stop is 1.1293

Target is 1.1100

Risk is 50 pips

Reward is 143 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 2.9 to 1

For research purposes only.
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  • #803
  • Aug 12, 2006 6:20am Aug 12, 2006 6:20am
sounds interesting for lomg term and mid term trades.
will be lookimg for updates here.
  • #804
  • Aug 12, 2006 12:48pm Aug 12, 2006 12:48pm
Dear sir,

Do u think gbp can come down in near term to 8500 as i m holding sell of gbp. pls guide.

yours truly,
amit
Quoting itme
Thanks, David

I hope your week was successful too. And have a great weekend!

I've started to perform better by being more careful and getting much more sleep. I hope I can continue to improve. It seems likely. We are also doing some interesting research which could provide some valuable keys.

I agree with you that we are due for a bounce on the EUR/USD about now.

I don't know anything about ema's or candlestick patterns, but Elliott Waves interest me very much. I will try to learn how to make pictures of them.

Onward to riches!
  • #805
  • Aug 13, 2006 6:00pm Aug 13, 2006 6:00pm
Dear Amitmiglani,

Yes, GBP/USD could go down quite far, but it will probably bounce off of 1.8800, then rise to 1.9200 or higher, then fall again to about 1.8800, then rise to 1.9375 first. That could take a few months.

Itme
  • #806
  • Edited 2:41pm Aug 15, 2006 2:26am | Edited 2:41pm
Evaluation of EW Prediction from a few days ago <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->We predicted, and you concurred as follows 08-09-2006, 12:49 :

<table class="tborder" id="post81994" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="thead" id="currentPost">08-09-2006, 12:49 <!-- / status icon and date -->
</td></tr><tr><td class="alt2" style="padding: 0px;"><!-- user info --><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="6" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="alt2">
</td><td nowrap="nowrap">
</td><td width="100%">
</td><td nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">
</td></tr></tbody></table><!-- / user info --></td></tr><tr><td class="alt1">Elliott Wave analysis
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->My theory: EUR/USD is now trading at 1.2883. It is in a wave 4 retracement of the upwards trend since last night. It will trend down today to about 1.2850, then go up to about 1.2900 during the European session, then turn around at or before the significant U.S. data releases at 8:30 ET tomorrow, and go back down to about 1.2775 to compete a downwards complex corrective wave which started Aug 4 at 1.2906. Then it will rise to about 1.3000, completing the long term trend which started November 15, 2005.
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</td></tr></tbody></table>Results: EUR/USD trended down to 1.2853 during the night as predicted, then went up to 1.2911 as predicted during the European session, then turned around before the data releases at 8:30 ET (at 3:00 ET), then went down to 1.2747 (further than expected) very strongly under the impulse of the news release, then zigzagged on down to this morning's low of 1.2708. The EUR/USD is now on a downwards mini-trend, but when it is over at about 1.2710 it will probably start a fifth wave upwards towards 1.2950.
  • #807
  • Aug 15, 2006 2:43am Aug 15, 2006 2:43am
TuesdayAugust 15 3:30 ET

TS #141A Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3484

Stop is 2.3511
Target #1 is 2.3240

Risk is 42 pips
Reward is 229 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.5 to 1

For research purposes only
_______________________________

Previous trade signals:
Update TS #141 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3330 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Wednesday August 9 12:15 ET

GBP/CHF was riding along the upper trendline, showing good potential to dive downwards, and then the August 8 14:15 ET USA FOMC interest rate decision volatility caused a rise to 2.3412, triggering our stop, followed by a fall to 2.3303. GBP/CHF is now rising again in what appears to be a corrective wave, possibly to about 2.3375.

Some kind of defensive strategy should have been implemented prior to the FOMC interest rate decision data release, such as exiting at an opportune time prior to the announcement, or tightening up the stop a little. If the Federal Reserve had raised interest rates again, then GBP/USD would have fallen, instead of rising, and GBP/CHF would have moved strongly downwards. Instead, we were stopped out. C'est la vie.
__________________________________

Stop on GBP/CHF hit, but was adjusted slightly up
Monday August 7, 21:00 ETTwinchell, GBP/CHF went up another time, but only slightly higher than the previous high on August 4th. The stop we gave was met, when the price reached 2.3380, however a line drawn between the two highs on August 4th, carried into the future would have brought about an adjustment to the stop up to about 2.3388, so technically we are still in the trade.
_______________________________

Friday August 4 at 16:00 ET
GBP/CHF has been trending upwards since July 3, and has gained 840 pips during that time, gaining an average of over 30 pips per day. Today's non-farm payroll figures sent GBP/CHF rising about 80 pips. Since this morning's high of 2.3360 at 8:35 ET GBP/CHF has been ratcheting its way slowly downwards, staying below a downward sloping trendline. A downwards trade taken off this trendline could be the beginning of a new downwards trend, and give us a low risk : high reward entry point.
TS #141 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3330
Stop is 2.3375
Target #1 is 2.2600
Risk is 60 pips
Reward is 715 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 11.9 to 1

For research purposes only
  • #808
  • Edited 5:05pm Aug 15, 2006 2:26pm | Edited 5:05pm
"Previous Results: EUR/USD trended down to 1.2853 during the night as predicted, then went up to 1.2911 as predicted during the European session, then turned around before the data releases at 8:30 ET (at 3:00 ET), then went down to 1.2747 (further than expected) very strongly under the impulse of the news release, then zigzagged on down to this morning's low of 1.2708. The EUR/USD is now on a downwards mini-trend, but when it is over at about 1.2710 it will probably start a fifth wave upwards towards 1.2950."

Update: EUR/USD continued on its mini-trend down, slightly past 1.2710 to 1.2693 (which was a target according to our targeting system), then shot up starting at August 14 at 21:50 ET, getting a boost of force from the very poor US Empire Manufacturing Index at 8:30 ET August 15 this morning, ignored the better than expected USA TIC numbers, and headed straight up 109 pips to 1.2802.

We interpret this latest strong upwards move for EUR/USD of 109 pips as the start of the first swing wave of a larger upwards Fifth Wave that targets 1.2950 and above.

As the attached chart shows, Elliotticians Refined Trader Software totally disagrees with my analysis. I consider this $15 million software system to be a very poor elliottician. As far as I can tell, when we disagree, which is most of the time, then I am usually right, and it is wrong.
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Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Elliottician August 15 EUR-USD downward prediction.doc   555 KB | 371 downloads
  • #809
  • Aug 15, 2006 8:24pm Aug 15, 2006 8:24pm
Quoting itme
"Previous Results: EUR/USD trended down to 1.2853 during the night as predicted, then went up to 1.2911 as predicted during the European session, then turned around before the data releases at 8:30 ET (at 3:00 ET), then went down to 1.2747 (further than expected) very strongly under the impulse of the news release, then zigzagged on down to this morning's low of 1.2708. The EUR/USD is now on a downwards mini-trend, but when it is over at about 1.2710 it will probably start a fifth wave upwards towards 1.2950."

Update: EUR/USD continued on its mini-trend down, slightly past 1.2710 to 1.2693 (which was a target according to our targeting system), then shot up starting at August 14 at 21:50 ET, getting a boost of force from the very poor US Empire Manufacturing Index at 8:30 ET August 15 this morning, ignored the better than expected USA TIC numbers, and headed straight up 109 pips to 1.2802.

We interpret this latest strong upwards move for EUR/USD of 109 pips as the start of the first swing wave of a larger upwards Fifth Wave that targets 1.2950 and above.

As the attached chart shows, Elliotticians Refined Trader Software totally disagrees with my analysis. I consider this $15 million software system to be a very poor elliottician. As far as I can tell, when we disagree, which is most of the time, then I am usually right, and it is wrong.
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the thing is I can agree with its projection and the current wave up is a wave C in a correction to the down move.
but either way is possible

Dave
  • #810
  • Aug 15, 2006 8:28pm Aug 15, 2006 8:28pm
but if your right itme, then 1.2695 support won't be broken for a while. Good place for a s/l on a dip.

Dave
  • #811
  • Aug 16, 2006 12:26pm Aug 16, 2006 12:26pm
Wednesday August 16 8:45 ET

Since our last trade signal to sell CAD/JPY at 103.75, CAD/JPY fell 95 pips to 102.80, then rose again to the previous high that was already met twice before - about 103.80. In doing so it fulfilled all criteria for a major reversal point according to our trading model at this triple top point.

TS #141B Sell CAD/JPY at 103.80
Stop is 104.16
Target is 100.15
Risk is 46 pips
Reward is 355 pips
Reward : Risk is 7.7 to 1

For research purposes only.

___________________________________________

Previous Trade Signals:

Friday August 11 at 12:30 ET
Since we shorted CAD/JPY four days ago at 103.00 it descended 95 pips to 102.05, then bounced back up to 103.75, which according to one of our models is a high probability reversal point.

TS #141A Sell CAD/JPY at 103.75
Stop is 104.21
Target is 100.15
Risk is 56 pips
Reward is 350 pips
Reward : Risk is 6.2 to 1
________________________________________

Monday August 7 at 18:30 ET
TS #141 Sell CAD/JPY at 103.00
Stop is 103.28
Target is 100.60
Risk is 38 pips
Reward is 230 pips
Reward : Risk is 6.0 to 1

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  • #812
  • Aug 16, 2006 12:33pm Aug 16, 2006 12:33pm
Itsme how do you feel about the EURJPY, GBPJPY and USDJPY pairs at this point in time?
  • #813
  • Edited 1:10pm Aug 17, 2006 12:16pm | Edited 1:10pm
Revise stop to 116.26. The previous stop 116.06 was an error. Also, the trade entry level was obviously too low.

Thursday August 17 at 13:00 ET

TS #143 Sell USD/JPY at 115.84

Stop is 116.06
Target is 113.30

Risk is 19 pips
Reward is 251 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 13.2 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #814
  • Edited 1:00pm Aug 17, 2006 12:40pm | Edited 1:00pm
EUR/JPY went down as predicted on August 10, but more than predicted, descending to 147.20 (we predicted a fall to about 147.90). Then, as predicted, it rose to a new high at about 148.85 on August 16, which was tested 7 times on the 15 minute chart. This would have been an excellent short opportunity at exactly the resistance level for a low risk, high reward trade. EUR/JPY then fell 60 pips to 148.25 this morning, followed by a bounce up to 148.84, which is a probable reversal point according to our system of analysis.

USD/JPY, as we predicted on August 10, rose to a new high, but higher than expected, rising to 116.75 (we predicted a rise to about 115.75 - 115.90). It formed a triple top at 116.75 on August 14 and August 15, which would have been an ideal sell opportunity. Then it started a new downwards trend, and advanced down to 115.20 this morning. It then bounced up to 116.02, which is a good sell opportunity.


Thursday August 17 at 13:30 ET


TS #144 Sell EUR/JPY at 148.80

Stop is 149.07

Target is 146.75


Risk is 30 pips
Reward is 202 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 6.7 to 1

For research purposes only.

______________________________________

Previous predictions:

August 10, 2006

Predictions for EUR/JPY and USD/JPY
EUR/JPY is going down for a little while, perhaps to about 147.90, perhaps pulled down by a falling EUR/USD, but it will rise again I believe to a new high, perhaps when EUR/USD rises strongly in a day or two. That will be the time to sell it - when EUR/JPY sets a new high.
USD/JPY will be rising for a little while, to about 115.75 - 115.90, but it will fall a great deal more after that. If USD/JPY goes up again to a new high as I expect it will, then it will present an excellent opportunity to sell it.
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  • #815
  • Aug 17, 2006 2:05pm Aug 17, 2006 2:05pm
Thursday August 17 at 15:00 ET

The following trade shorting GBP/CHF just met its target and even passed it by 20 pips for a successful trade:

Tuesday August 15 3:30 ET

TS #141A Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3484

Stop is 2.3511
Target #1 is 2.3240

Risk is 42 pips
Reward is 229 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.5 to 1

For research purposes only
  • #816
  • Edited 3:43pm Aug 17, 2006 2:25pm | Edited 3:43pm
Thursday August 17 at 15:00 ET

We had difficulty predicting the top of the GBP/JPY long uptrend which started at 201.64 on Feb 27, 2006. It rose 1,888 pips and peaked on August 15 at 220.52 and then fell over the past few days about 210 pips to 218.40. It got a big impetus downwards this morning from the poor U.K. data and good U.S. data. We think GBP/USD will now bounce strongly up, so we suggest exiting this short GBP/JPY trade at 218.40 and re-enter when it has finished an upwards retracement wave.

___________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Monday August 7 at 10:30 ET

GBP/JPY has gone up 150 pips since our short signal, hitting our stop. It has reached a probable reversal point. It has risen 1,020 pips since July 10, over 40 pips per day.

TS #140A Sell GBP/JPY at 219.70
Stop is 220.11
Target #1 is 212.50

Risk is 50 pips
Reward is 711 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 14.2 to 1
  • #817
  • Aug 17, 2006 3:30pm Aug 17, 2006 3:30pm
i am taking usd/jpy at 115.95 short.
  • #818
  • Aug 17, 2006 6:40pm Aug 17, 2006 6:40pm
Hello Itme ..

Your previous post: where you say that now is a good selling time for USDJPY (116.02) .. does the same apply to EURUSD ..
Is now a good buying time (currently about 1.2825) .. to target the 1.2950's and above ?
  • #819
  • Edited Aug 18, 2006 2:28am Aug 17, 2006 7:26pm | Edited Aug 18, 2006 2:28am
It is not clear to us whether EUR/USD has finished its downwards move, which means that it will carry on up to 1.2950, or whether it is just going up to about 1.2850 in a wave 4 retracement of the downwards trend, to be followed by a move down to 1.2790 to complete the downwards swing wave.

Shorting USD/CAD at about 1.1260 looks like a better and clearer play, targetting the 1.1125 range.
  • #820
  • Aug 17, 2006 7:56pm Aug 17, 2006 7:56pm
How about GU?has it finish going down?
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