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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #1,501
  • Jun 5, 2015 10:48am Jun 5, 2015 10:48am
After doing my homework i am sell usoil...tp 52.727
  • #1,502
  • Jun 5, 2015 1:17pm Jun 5, 2015 1:17pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} What weakness?
one that is very close if om not wrong
  • #1,503
  • Jun 5, 2015 1:29pm Jun 5, 2015 1:29pm
Boom.. long since 57.44, don't be surprised if we se 61 before close today. Expected this yesterday but im sure the market did trap many more today thanks to opec. If there is enough trapped shorts then maybe 64 after some break next weak.
  • #1,504
  • Edited 2:44pm Jun 5, 2015 1:55pm | Edited 2:44pm
My longs are in good green we should go higher from here in my expectations
  • #1,505
  • Edited 7:44am Jun 6, 2015 1:44am | Edited 7:44am
More twist and turn of the correction iv before resuming of uptrend ???
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #1,506
  • Jun 6, 2015 12:03pm Jun 6, 2015 12:03pm
Good luck to Bulls or Bears who can figure, at this point, which side of the range is going to break:
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  • #1,507
  • Jun 8, 2015 2:19am Jun 8, 2015 2:19am
the rise from low 40's to the high 50's/low 60's is just a short term correction.
Fundamentals will play out here.
Iran is starting to have there millions now in the global market figures.

The only thing stopping oil going back to the 40's is a war involving one of the OPEC countries.

US dollars going to keep strengthening traders. don't forget how strong a rising us dollar is to commodities.

For nat gas i think going long at any indication of a support area in this 2.50-2.60 is a good play
  • #1,508
  • Jun 8, 2015 6:08am Jun 8, 2015 6:08am
+ 1 good post.
  • #1,509
  • Jun 8, 2015 3:29pm Jun 8, 2015 3:29pm
Quoting yeniful
the rise from low 40's to the high 50's/low 60's is just a short term correction. Fundamentals will play out here. Iran is starting to have there millions now in the global market figures. The only thing stopping oil going back to the 40's is a war involving one of the OPEC countries. US dollars going to keep strengthening traders. don't forget how strong a rising us dollar is to commodities. For nat gas i think going long at any indication of a support area in this 2.50-2.60 is a good play
I partially disagree on your post:
There could be many reasons pushing price up to 70 or down to 52...
Firts of all a change in production can move price easily for about 5 or 7$ x barrel in a few weeks.

A war btw can also crash price for a while ...
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #1,510
  • Jun 8, 2015 3:56pm Jun 8, 2015 3:56pm
yeniful mentioned war.

Supply and demand controls price. But almost never in a 50/50 kind of balance. In recent years demand has factored more in determining the price direction. Demand, and price, was high until China (and also U.S./Eurozone) slowed dramatically. But supply has held steady and if anything has continued here in the U.S. - even after latest bear market. What has helped price recently is demand has also been rising in the U.S. and less so in China. IMO not enough to matter much.

What will happen 6 months, a year or two from now who knows. But if demand doesn't pick up a lot, supply will be plentiful and lower prices should be back again.
  • #1,511
  • Jun 8, 2015 4:50pm Jun 8, 2015 4:50pm
Quoting SunTrader
yeniful mentioned war. Supply and demand controls price. But almost never in a 50/50 kind of balance. In recent years demand has factored more in determining the price direction. Demand, and price, was high until China (and also U.S./Eurozone) slowed dramatically. But supply has held steady and if anything has continued here in the U.S. - even after latest bear market. What has helped price recently is demand has also been rising in the U.S. and less so in China. IMO not enough to matter much. What will happen 6 months, a year or two from now who...
I think supply will determine direction. It's the reason why OPEC is keeping production at same level
reasons for keeping supply and keeping price at current to levels are to slow and or eliminate US Shale production.
Demand is slowly rising but not enough as USA is the only major country looking at increase and as economic uncertainty worldwide are rising.
The only way oil prices goes higher is if any oil producing country stops production due to war or natural disasters.
So at the end know for sure that oil charts will definitely go right.
But as of right now 56-58 is definitely a strong support and 62 as resistance. The persistent of price to drop to support quickly rise is just showing that price is definitely wanting IMO to break resistance.
My very novice opinion.
Have a great day all
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #1,512
  • Jun 8, 2015 5:01pm Jun 8, 2015 5:01pm
I know OPEC, through Saudi Arabia's dominant position, is keeping production high to hurt U.S. oil exploration/drilling companies.

But the only thing is most of the U.S. production is consumed ... in the U.S. So even though U.S. refiners pay world prices they have an advantage seeing how the stuff is here already - which means very little transportation costs and no uncertainly (getting it from a trouble spot).

So IMO again, Saudi Arabia will do what they do but it will not have that big an effect.
  • #1,513
  • Jun 8, 2015 5:17pm Jun 8, 2015 5:17pm
Quoting SunTrader
I know OPEC, through Saudi Arabia's dominant position, is keeping production high to hurt U.S. oil exploration/drilling companies. But the only thing is most of the U.S. production is consumed ... in the U.S. So even though U.S. refiners pay world prices they have an advantage seeing how the stuff is here already - which means very little transportation costs and no uncertainly (getting it from a trouble spot). So IMO again, Saudi Arabia will do what they do but it will not have that big an effect.
USA reliant on OPEC oil has slowly disappeared since shale production in USA. That's the reason why OPEC who are still the biggest producer of oil is keeping price down so the shale will be hard to produce at current prices. Since majority of Shale exploration n production are new. Funding for these companies will eventually run out along with govt subsidies.
Lower oil prices by means of over inventories just means OPEC is flexing it's muscle on the newby producers. Like how china is flexing it's muscle by occupying islands that has potential minerals. Islands that's been occupied by other Asian countries.
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #1,514
  • Jun 9, 2015 3:54am Jun 9, 2015 3:54am
Quoting yeniful
the rise from low 40's to the high 50's/low 60's is just a short term correction. Fundamentals will play out here. Iran is starting to have there millions now in the global market figures. The only thing stopping oil going back to the 40's is a war involving one of the OPEC countries. US dollars going to keep strengthening traders. don't forget how strong a rising us dollar is to commodities. For nat gas i think going long at any indication of a support area in this 2.50-2.60 is a good play
There is war in more than one country.

Libya, Yemen, and ISIS in the Syria...Iraq...Lebanon...Kurdistan region.
The ISIS issue is threatening a lot of Iraqi production because a number of fields are quite closed to the danger zones.
Also some of the West African countries are starting to flex their territorial claims.....

From a purely selfish point of view it would be good to see Iran and Saudi get head-to-head over the happenings in the Yemen......
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #1,515
  • Jun 9, 2015 5:28am Jun 9, 2015 5:28am
look at Greece, Spain and Italy they are all gates to energy. Don't forget Ukraine and Russia either. The fight is already spread out, you don't need to use weapons to fight, you can use economy, politics and sociology as well, those are much more common methods in modern warfare.
  • #1,516
  • Jun 9, 2015 6:03am Jun 9, 2015 6:03am
I am still holding my longs from last week dip, i've added a positive stop loss to them and i am waiting for brake above 60$ then i will think for a TP
  • #1,517
  • Jun 9, 2015 7:36am Jun 9, 2015 7:36am
retrace possible now but still bullish

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  • #1,518
  • Jun 9, 2015 9:09am Jun 9, 2015 9:09am
Quoting kuroro001
Buying natural gas for 3,6/3,8
Was at 2,58 when mentionned

200 pips up, only 1000 pips remaining
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,519
  • Jun 9, 2015 9:23am Jun 9, 2015 9:23am
Watch for "fireworks" soon as we approach 12-12:15 pm NYtime - release of EIA short term energy outlook.
  • #1,520
  • Jun 9, 2015 4:06pm Jun 9, 2015 4:06pm
looks like double boosters up today for oil. First was the reduced shale rig numbers and later on it was the lower than expected stock pile data.
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