Elliottwave-Forecast.com - Official Thread w/ Analysis Blogs

Dow Jones (INDU) Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – May 11, 2015

Decline to 17732.04 completed wave X and the Index has since moved higher. From wave X low, the rally took the form of a zigzag a-b-c, where wave a ended at 17973.07, wave b ended at 17910.15, and wave c of (w) completed at 18205.23. Wave (x) pullback is currently in progress towards an ideal target of 17843.94 – 17969.54 (50 – 76.4 back of wave (w) rally). We don’t like selling wave (x) pullback and expect buyers to come at the area above for continuation higher or at minimum 3 waves higher to correct the decline from 18205.23.



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GBP/USD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – May 14, 2015

Decline to 1.5086 completed wave (X), and rally from this level is taking the form of a double correction ((w))-((x))-((y)) where wave ((w)) ended at 1.5523 and wave ((x)) ended at 1.5351. Wave ((y)) of W is already at inflection (turning) area, so although it has met the minimum requirement for completion, a marginal high can’t be ruled out and the pair can still test as high as 1.5785 – 1.588 to complete wave ((y)) of W.

Once wave W is complete, the pair is expected to pullback in wave X, ideally correcting at least 50 – 61.8 back of the rally from wave ((x)) low at 1.5351 before resuming higher again. We don’t like selling the proposed wave X pullback. As far as 1.5086 level holds in the pullback, we expect buyers to appear after wave X pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing for continuation higher.



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S&P E-Mini (ES_F) Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – May 19, 2015

Decline to 2057.23 completed wave X. Wave ((w)) rally from this level is unfolding in the form of a double correction (w)-(x)-(y). Wave (w) of ((w)) took the form of a double correction w-x-y and ended at 2113.5. Wave (x) of ((w)) also took the form of a double correction w-x-y and ended at 2079.25. Wave (y) of ((w)) is currently in progress towards 2136.43 – 2149.86 and is taking the form of a triple correction w-x-y-x-z where wave w ended at 2106.5, wave x ended at 2091.5, wave y ended at 2122.5, second wave x ended at 2112.25, and wave z is in progress towards 2136.43 – 2149.86 to complete wave ((w)).

Expect some profit taking from 2136.43 – 2149.86 area and the Index to pullback 3 waves lower in wave ((x)) to correct the rally from 2057.23. We do not like selling the proposed wave ((x)) pullback. We expect buyers to come again for the next leg higher once wave ((x)) pullback is complete.



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NIKKEI 225 Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – May 20, 2015

Decline to 19054 completed wave ((X)), and the Index has since resumed the rally in wave W in the form of a double correction ((w))-((x))-((y)) where wave ((w)) ended at 19865, wave ((x)) ended at 19495, and wave ((y)) is in progress towards 20314 – 20507. Expect some profit taking from 20314 – 20507 area and the Index to pullback 3 waves lower in wave X to correct the rally from 19054. We do not like selling the proposed wave X pullback. As far as 19054 pivot holds in the pullback, buyers should come again for the next leg higher once wave X pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swings.



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NIKKEI 225 Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – May 22, 2015

Decline to 19054 completed wave ((X)), and the Index has since resumed the rally in wave W in the form of a double correction ((w))-((x))-((y)) where wave ((w)) ended at 19865 and wave ((x)) ended at 19495. In our previous Nikkei 225 Chart of the Day posted at 5.20.2015, we said wave ((y)) is in progress towards 20314 – 20507, and some profit taking should be seen from 20314 – 20507 area and the Index to pullback 3 waves lower in wave X to correct the rally from 19054.

Since our last update, current preferred Elliottwave view suggests wave ((y)) of W has ended at 20350, and wave X pullback is in progress towards the ideal target of 19561 – 19714 (50 – 61.8 back). Wave X pullback is unfolding in the form of a double correction ((w))-((x))-((y)) where wave ((w)) is expected to complete at 19996 – 20107, then it should bounce in wave ((x)) before turning lower to resume wave X pullback towards 19561 – 19714. We do not like selling the proposed wave X pullback. As far as 19054 pivot holds in wave X pullback, expect buyers to come for 3 waves higher at minimum to correct the decline from 20350 per Elliott Wave hedging technique.



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Elliott Wave personality and characheristics

Besides technical characterists, Elliott wave analysts are also familiar with individual wave personality, which typically reflects the psychology of the moment. In the picture below you can see an example of the rising trend – 5 wave impulsive structure.

1. Wave 1 is rarely obvious at its inception . Traders believe previous trend is still strongly in force and it’s usually considered as correction. Volume might increase a bit as move progressing, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts. Occasionally it could take structure of leading diagonal.
2. Wave 2 corrects wave one and it could never extend beyond the start point of wave 1. In most cases it do not retrace more than 61.8 % or 76.4% of wave 1. It usually takes form of Zig Zag, Flat or Double Three and it could never be a Triangle. Volume should be lower during Wave 2 than during wave 1.
3. Wave 3 is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend. Price is progressing quickly, corrections are short –lived and shallow. By wave 3 midpoint the crowd will often join the new trend. Wave 3 must exceed at leas 1.618 fib extension of wave 1 and could go up to 2.618 fib ext or more. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest one.
4. Wave 4 is typically clearly corrective. Price could do sideways for an extended period and typically retraces less than 38.2 %, usually 23.6% of wave 3. Fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend. Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the case of a diagonal. It often takes structure of flat, triangle or irregular correction. At Elliottwave-Forecast.com, we don’t label a wave 4 if it passes 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave 3 (unless a diagonal)
5. Wave 5 is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences. It often takes form of ending diagonal structure.

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S&P E-Mini (ES_F) Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – May 24, 2015

In our previous Chart of The Day at 5/21/2015, we said that the rally from wave X low (2057.41) took the form of a double correction (w)-(x)-(y) and the whole rally is complete as wave ((w)) at 2134. We also said wave ((x)) pullback is in progress to correct the rally from 2057.41 low towards an ideal target area of 2086.64 – 2095.66 (50 – 61.8 back) before the Index resumes the rally again.

Since our last update, current preferred Elliott wave view suggests the rally from wave X low at 2057.41 is instead unfolding in the form of a triple correction ((w))-((x))-((y))-((x))-((z)), where wave ((w)) ended at 2113.5, wave ((x)) ended at 2079.25, and wave ((y)) ended at 2134. Second wave ((x)) pullback is currently in progress towards 2101.09 – 2113.03 before the Index turns higher in wave ((z)). We do not like selling the proposed wave ((x)) pullback. Once wave ((x)) pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swings, buyers are expected to come again and push the Index higher provided pivot at X (2057.41) low remains intact.



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NIKKEI Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – May 28, 2015

Decline to 19054 completed wave ((X)), and the Index has since resumed the rally in the form of a triple correction (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z) where wave (W) ended at 19865, wave (X) ended at 19495, wave (Y) ended at 20590, second wave (X) ended at 20318, and wave (Z) is currently in progress towards 20963 – 21999.
Wave (Z) rally from 20318 ended the first leg at 20685 as wave ((w)). The Index is currently in wave ((x)) pullback ideally towards 20408 – 20502 before the rally resumes. We do not like selling the proposed wave ((x)) pullback. As far as 20318 pivot holds in wave ((x)) pullback, expect buyers to come for 3 waves higher at minimum to correct the decline from 20685 per Elliott Wave hedging idea.



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$TNX Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis - June 02, 2015

Decline to 1.843 completed wave X. From this level, $TNX rallied in wave ((w)) in the form of a triple correction (w)-(x)-(y)-(x)-(z) where wave (w) ended at 1.989, wave (x) ended at 1.907, wave (y) ended at 2.252, second wave (x) ended at 2.101, and wave (z) of ((w)) ended at 2.335. From the high of 2.335, $TNX declined in wave ((x)) in the form of double correction (w)-(x)-(y) where wave (w) ended at 2.137, wave (x) ended at 2.301, and wave (y) of ((x)) ended at equal leg 2.092. The instrument then has started to move higher from 2.092.

As far as 1.843 level stays intact, $TNX is expected to make an extension higher. Or at minimum, the instrument is expected to bounce for 3 waves to correct the decline from wave ((w)) high at 2.335 per Elliott Wave hedging idea. The rally so far from 2.092 looks to be the first leg, so at minimum a second leg pullback should happen once the first leg of rally has ended, to be followed by another extension higher again in the third leg later. We don’t like selling the pullback.



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SILVER Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – June 04, 2015

Rally to 17.77 completed wave W, and short term Elliott Wave view suggests wave X pullback is unfolding in the form of a double correction ((w))-((x))-((y)) where wave ((w)) ended at 16.565, wave ((x)) ended at 17.178, and wave ((y)) is currently in progress.

Internal of wave ((y)) is taking the form of a double correction (w)-(x)-(y) and wave (w) is expected to complete at 16.22 – 16.41, then it should bounce in wave (x) to correct the decline from 17.178 before another leg lower. We don’t like buying the proposed bounce in wave (x) and as far as 17.178 level holds, the metal is expected to extend lower after wave (x) bounce is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing.



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ASX All Ordinaries Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – June 05, 2015

Bounce to 5800.4 completed wave (X). From this level, the Index declined in a triple correction form ((w))-((x))-((y))-((z)) where wave ((w)) ended at 5685.6, wave ((x)) ended at 5752.3, wave ((y)) ended at 5581.9, second wave ((x)) ended at 5606.6, and wave ((z)) of W is expected to complete at 5503.7 – 5560.1 area.

As Index is currently already at the inflection area above, wave X can happen soon ideally reaching 5643.3 – 5680 before the decline resumes. We don’t like buying the proposed wave X bounce. As far as 5800.4 level holds in the bounce, the Index is expected to resume lower after wave X bounce is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swings.



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GBP/AUD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – June 09, 2015

Decline to 1.95991 completed wave X. From this level, the pair rallied in wave (w) in the form of a double correction w-x-y where wave w ended at 2.004, wave x ended at 1.9822, and wave y of (w) ended at 2.00707. The pair then pullback in wave (x) also in the form of a double correction w-x-y where wave w ended at 1.9915, wave x ended at 2.0017, and wave y of (x) is in progress towards 1.9821 – 1.9858. We don’t like selling the proposed wave (x) pullback. Expect the pair to turn higher to complete wave ((w)) towards 2.02664 – 2.03709 once wave (x) pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as 1.95991 pivot stays intact.



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GBP/AUD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – June 11, 2015

Decline to 1.95991 completed wave X. From this level, the pair rallied in wave (w) in the form of a double correction w-x-y where wave w ended at 2.004, wave x ended at 1.9822, and wave y of (w) takes the form of a FLAT and ended at 2.0128. The pair then pullback in wave (x) which ended at 1.984.

As far as 1.984 level holds, or more importantly as far as 1.96 level holds, pair is expected to resume rally to new high. If 1.984 fails, then the pair is doing a double correction and open extension lower towards 1.975 – 1.9818 area before the rally resumes. In the event that the pair breaks below 1.984, then as far as 1.96 pivot is intact, buyers are expected to appear from 1.975 – 1.9818 area and take the pair either to new high or at least 3 waves bounce per Elliott wave hedging idea.



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GBP/USD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – June 17, 2015

Decline to 1.5169 completed wave ((X)). Rally from this level is unfolding in a triple correction ((w))-((x))-((y))-((z)) where wave ((w)) ended at 1.544, wave ((x)) ended at 1.5189, wave ((y)) ended at 1.5554, and second wave ((x)) ended at 1.5419. From second wave ((x)) low at 1.5419, the pair rallies in wave ((z)) as a double correction (w)-(x)-(y) where wave (w) ended at 1.5598, wave (x) ended at 1.5484, and wave (y) is in progress towards 1.5689 – 1.5754 area to complete wave W.

Expect some profit taking from 1.5689 – 1.5754 area and the pair to pullback in wave X in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct the cycle from 6/1/2015 low at 1.5169 before it is ready to resume higher again. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback in wave X. As far as 1.5169 pivot stays intact during the pullback, expect the pair to resume rally to new high or at least bounce in 3 waves per Elliott Wave hedging idea.



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GBP/USD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – June 19, 2015

Current short term Elliott wave view suggests rally from 1.5169 is unfolding in a double correction structure W-X-Y where wave W ended at 1.5554 and wave X ended at 1.5419. Wave Y is in progress and unfolding as a triple correction structure ((w))-((x))-((y))-((x))-((z)) where wave ((w)) ended at 1.56, wave ((x)) ended at 1.5484, wave ((y)) ended at 1.5756, second wave ((x)) ended at 1.5675, and wave ((z)) is in progress towards 1.5937 – 1.612 to complete wave (W).

Expect some profit taking from 1.5937 – 1.612 area and the pair to pullback in wave (X) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct the cycle from 6/1/2015 low at 1.5169 before it is ready to resume higher again. Alternative view suggests wave (W) is already complete at the last high 1.593 and the pair is already in wave (X) pullback. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback in wave (X). As far as 1.5169 pivot stays intact during the pullback, expect the pair to resume rally to new high or at least bounce in 3 waves per Elliott Wave hedging idea.



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EURJPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – June 23, 2015

Decline from wave (W) at 141.05 took the form of a FLAT A-B-C where wave A ended at 139.03, wave B ended at 141.03, and wave C of (X) completed at 137.94.
From 137.94, the pair rallied in the form of a double corrective structure where wave ((w)) ended at 140.66, wave ((x)) ended at 138.92, and wave ((y)) is currently in progress towards 141.61 – 142.25 equal leg area. The internal of wave ((y)) is unfolding as a double correction (w)-(x)-(y) where wave (w) ended at 140.63 and wave (x) pullback is in progress. As far as the pullback holds above 137.94 and ideally also holds above 138.92, the pair is expected to resume rally higher. If 137.94 breaks, then the pair is doing a double correction and open extension lower towards 136.85 – 137.6 before turning higher.



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EURJPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – June 24, 2015

Rally to 141.05 completed wave (W). Current revised short term Elliott Wave view suggests wave (X) pullback is unfolding in a double corrective structure W-X-Y. Wave W took the form of a FLAT structure A-B-C where wave A ended at 139.03, wave B ended at 141.03, and wave C of W completed at 137.94.

Wave X bounce from 137.94 was in a double corrective structure ((w))-((x))-((y)) where wave ((w)) ended at 140, wave ((x)) ended at 138.24, and wave ((y)) of X completed at 140.67. Wave Y of (X) is currently in progress towards 136.86 – 137.7. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback. From 136.86 – 137.7 area, expect the pair to resume either to new high or at minimum 3 waves bounce to correct the decline from 141.05 per Elliott Wave hedging idea.



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EURJPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – June 26, 2015

Revised short term Elliott Wave view suggests the decline from wave (W) at 141.05 is unfolding in the way of a FLAT A-B-C where wave A ended at 137.97, wave B ended at 140.67, and wave C of (X) is in progress as 5 waves and can reach to as low as 136.84 – 137.6. The internal of wave C suggests wave ((i)) ended at 138.92, wave ((ii)) ended at 140.63, wave ((iii)) ended at 137.66, wave ((iv)) ended at 138.76, and wave ((v)) is currently in progress lower towards 136.84 – 137.6 to complete wave (X) pullback.

We don’t like selling the proposed wave ((v)) pullback. From 136.84 – 137.6 area, expect the pair to resume either to new high or at minimum bounce in 3 waves to correct the decline from 141.05 per Elliott Wave hedging idea.



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SILVER (XAG) Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – June 30, 2015

Decline from wave X at 16.46 is unfolding in double correction (w)-(x)-(y) where wave (w) ended at 15.5, wave (x) ended at 16.05, and wave (y) is in progress towards 14.85 – 15.08. The internal of wave (y) is also taking the form of a double corrective structure w-x-y where wave w is in progress towards 15.31 -15.45, then it should bounce in wave x before the decline resumes. We don’t like buying proposed wave x bounce. As far as 16.46 pivot stays intact, expect silver to resume decline lower.



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