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  • #21
  • Edited 2:53pm Feb 15, 2015 2:34pm | Edited 2:53pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.businessinsider.com/miner...-timing-2015-2 lol, count on Bullard to work the jawbone. Anywho, if you are a casual investor, high-yield corporate debt is going to start to look better if the Fed comes through, AAA corporate >5% on the horizon http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds/compo...aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--
Mate, thx for article, but I am not very familliar with US policymakers. I know the names, but thats just it. So, if I shot for Bullard we have just made low in E/U and is a buy. Dunno, but you have convinced me E/U is gonna be ranging min till first FOMC, but possibly to 2nd. Think due to EU mess is gonna be ranging down though. Perhaps we can start watching bottoming pattern here.

I dont understand to your link to corporate debt mate, think I need to read in the end

Edit: Ah, I get it. Now, thats a great idea man. I was thinking currencies now, but funds are ok with me. Hope I find a propper one.
Diet: Also, regarding hike issue, though mid-long term is flow in Eur, US stocks react first.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #22
  • Edited 3:47pm Feb 15, 2015 3:06pm | Edited 3:47pm
But this week is what counts now, as markets opening in an hour. So, as all news blathering bout hikes - US, GB and Japan, is quite obvious it is timed precisely on all indexes breaking highs namely - SaP, Nikkei, Ftse, Djia...so they r lurking herd its gonna be correction on tops. Could be just a lurk and we break highs?

And, more importantly, could this be bottoming H4? I dont think so, think is just a bounce, but still has pretty some steam to bounce up to 53,5, or maybe even 55. Should Oil resume downtrend, think range down in Eur/Usd pretty good shot.

Also, due to unstability of both USD and JPY in mid term, am gonna load low lvrg Gbp/Eur shorts.
Below is my current exposure. Broker marked Yen gay. I am glad for that, he hit the nail here.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #23
  • Feb 15, 2015 3:51pm Feb 15, 2015 3:51pm
Nice discussion. I do agree 100% with Tom's end of post quotation.

Personally, I believe I know Nothing. I do, however, suspect much. By never having to know Anything, you avoid the most serious of Human Pitfalls; The need to be Right or Wrong. Drop that expectation and live a happy life.

The extent of my wisdom,
Darryl :nerd:
  • #24
  • Edited 4:52pm Feb 15, 2015 4:14pm | Edited 4:52pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Below is my current exposure. Broker marked Yen gay. I am glad for that, he hit the nail here.
So weekend open portfolio behaves, also have loaded first little Eur/Gbp short. Biggest problem so far beeing good numbers on Sunday for NZD, so Nzd short suffers.

Am stacking up on Eur/Gbp shorts.

So now the spikey cut me out of few Gbp/Yen trades. I dont mind, cut loosers short they say and wanted to lower exposure to Yen. Would prefere in profit though :/.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #25
  • Edited 5:41pm Feb 15, 2015 5:17pm | Edited 5:41pm
Here is Aud/Usd chart. We are consolidating @ monthly doji here at 0,775. Wanna enter short, but chop @ is dangerous, so prolly very low lvrg with stops above range high.

I also stack on G/U longs, as coz spikey cut me on GBP/JPY trades, had higher long exposure to USD, than GBP, which I dont want short term.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #26
  • Feb 15, 2015 6:16pm Feb 15, 2015 6:16pm
GBP longs rock. M15 now hold E/G, G/U and G/J. NZD still in loss and loaded few Aud. Eur shorts also not doing very well, unlike Jpy, which is nice. I dont trust to Jpy though

Also Oil seems is starting to fall on m5.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #27
  • Edited 7:06pm Feb 15, 2015 6:34pm | Edited 7:06pm
Regarding Nzd/U - seems like a cupn handle. m15 confirming bounce continues on GU. UJ unable to leave mid, but GBP strength carries G/Y up. Eur shorts also loosing, but not very much. Also oil short moved from m5 to m15. Taking up speed. Good for my UJ longs, could leave mid.

Oil speeding up and 52,5 on the road. should bounce.

Cup n handle seems puffing. I have dropped few Nzd. Cut loosers short they say . And loaded Aud.

So below my portfolio. Am short term mostly watching Eur/Gbp, Gpb/Jpy and Gbp/Usd charts. Long term still the same. Eur and Nzd behave worst so far.

Ha, Yen plunges. I know why I dont trust him .

Well, i think am covered well. Going for a beer. 2 am perfect time.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #28
  • Edited 10:55am Feb 16, 2015 10:06am | Edited 10:55am
GBP not behaved right at start of the week, but short term moves...deal with troika and stuff perhaps? Dunno. Doesnt seem to me like a deal, just noise. Either way, this is hold in my charts and am stacking up shorts. Also stacking on GJ longs.

Eur shooorts!.... But Jpy takes portfolio down again :/, never perfect.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #29
  • Feb 16, 2015 4:03pm Feb 16, 2015 4:03pm
So, as Daily closed, this is how portfolio behaved - Yen unstable as thought and even through Gbp strength G/J charts didnt make it and got cut a bit. Holding only mid term here with stops below @ 179,85. UJ chart also as expected chop in the mid, daily closes as doji right in there . Usd strength due to sell in Stocks and Oil carried rest of portfolio. So long exposure pretty well, short exposure as said have loaded on Eur, mainly in Eur/Gbp chart, where profits covered loss of Yen. Also have loaded mid term short positions on E/U. So here below UJ chart with focus on mid chop and current portfolio exposure. As I still expect Eur ranging down, will prolly cover part of exposure of Gbp/Eur shorts. Gbp/Eur daily also Doji, but pretty nice one. Aud/Usd also @ doji, but monthly, heavy chop in there and I keep it tight.

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Either case, they a) should delay hike b) E/U in hyperbolic move down and politicians blathering bout Greece. Now though we agree they kick the can, before they do, is Eur sell. So can finish for low. EU politicians generally slow, so Eur has a space to weaken further, before they decide how to kick it. Edit: Generally speaking because of this think Eur/Gbp short could be pretty nice trade for next week.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
K, so lover goes first. Due to recent developments in Japan, namely talks about Bank of Japan revising their monetary policy, as aint working (really funny how now everyone sees QE aint working..,) and also due to bounce in Oil, I am revising my mid term view percentage. As triangle got broken I have said am about 75% convinced we wont get waves D,E and continue to break. Recent development gave higher value to Scenario B. Nevertheless, as we are still above consolidation mid, I consider this hold on weekly chart. So technically Scenario A @ 60%,...
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #30
  • Feb 16, 2015 6:35pm Feb 16, 2015 6:35pm
So, RBA just decided to lower IR by 25 basis points. Hope Aud shorts gonna play out well
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #31
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:50am Feb 17, 2015 9:50am
Portfolio update: So, Gbp safe haven short term fail, however Oil went down in LO sesstion, so USD long exposure covered Gbp loss, a bit , overall portfolio in loss, as Eur was also bought in the morning. USD strength however corrected yesterdays Aud longs - uf and also combined with Yen weakness pulled UJ chart pretty nice up above mid, so currently scenario A on UJ winning on h4, but still can be in chop. Oil could stop falling @ 49, it can still be just a h1 up channel and continues with bounce up. I have used the move in Eur to stack on em, and also as GBP not behaved, went USD longs. So entered in E/U chart @ 1,14 primary stops above at 1,148.

So, Gbp/Eur worst part of my portfolio now, but UJ rocks .
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #32
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:00am Feb 17, 2015 10:00am
Hey Tom, thanks for letting me post in your interesting thread
Re: US rate hike, I'm just not convinced. Policy makers over there need to be careful with the $ strength. I'd be interested to see a comparison of eg Boeing vs Airbus to see what order numbers they are getting in....
Week is good for EU exporters, really week even better, Europe might start surprising with some good numbers as the year goes on. Dunno maybe I'm trying to be too much 'pro Euro'. Some of these neo-con yanks scare the sh!t out of me! ie did you see that Nuland woman say 'F**k the EU' when referring to Ukraine crisis......
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #33
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:36am Feb 17, 2015 10:36am
Quoting mrcreosote
Hey Tom, thanks for letting me post in your interesting thread Re: US rate hike, I'm just not convinced. Policy makers over there need to be careful with the $ strength. I'd be interested to see a comparison of eg Boeing vs Airbus to see what order numbers they are getting in.... Week is good for EU exporters, really week even better, Europe might start surprising with some good numbers as the year goes on. Dunno maybe I'm trying to be too much 'pro Euro'. Some of these neo-con yanks scare the sh!t out of me! ie did you see that Nuland woman...
Hi, welcome aboard.

No, I havent seen her, but am used to it. I have the lowest of the lowest expectations when it comes to politicians and their goons. Is very obvious that fear = isolation = neonazi. We have to fight with this disease with our morals, nothing more we can do about it.

Regarding hike - yes, US policymakers should be very worried with USD strength. However, in my books timing fits. Though I am trying to analyze everything, got no clue why Oil was falling that hard, apart few conspiracy theories (usually involving US-Russia-China). So FA I dont know, but from TA point of view Oil is approaching 2K8 lows. Dunno if breaks or not, but if there is a place for reversal, it is somewhat around here. I dont believe there is economical reason for move in Oil. Is such a massive move, while at the same time you got ISIS rampaging Middle East - heck, shouldnt this at least bounce that price? So think is some political mumbo jumbo play and can reverse on will of pupetteers. Once Oil reverses, USD may finally start weakening again and policymakers can approach to hike.

Regarding EU here - also think whole QE + stats is a political mumbo. It goes like this. You bet...you fack up...you print to cover your bad bets.....you post good numbers to everyone feel happy.... you act like nothing has happened and keep on gambling. US first, GB second, Japan third, EU the very last as usuall. All same trajectory of thievery and gambling. Nevertheless, ofc I expect EU at start of QE post good numbers, coz they dont want to look like fools eh, then bad numbers so they can keep on printing. I wear a tin foil hat.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #34
  • Feb 17, 2015 8:52pm Feb 17, 2015 8:52pm
So, as I read it BoJ continues with QE and nothing changed. Hope we correct last weeks hoax.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #35
  • Feb 18, 2015 11:38am Feb 18, 2015 11:38am
So, FOMC in an hour or so, and this is how I roll into the meeting. SaP retracing from highs, Nikkei breaking, Oil also down. Portfolio behaves. Bring it on Yellen .
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #36
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:03pm Feb 18, 2015 1:03pm
So, read for yourself, takes time:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...es20150128.htm

quote conclusion (I like those last lines in minutes):

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."

As expected. Translation: Yes, we are gonna withdraw, but we cant do it now. Think not very good for my Usd longs, but lets wait for market to digest.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #37
  • Edited 9:41pm Jun 4, 2015 9:17pm | Edited 9:41pm
Cup n Handle microtimeframe combo. Hope it works.
edit: Xau SL twinked to 1175,99
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #38
  • Jun 4, 2015 9:25pm Jun 4, 2015 9:25pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Cup n Handle microtimeframe combo. Hope it works. {image} {image} {image}
Loaded more in Eur, than GBP. GU entry currently scubadiving.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #39
  • Jul 24, 2015 9:12am Jul 24, 2015 9:12am
... test..
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #40
  • Jul 24, 2015 2:13pm Jul 24, 2015 2:13pm
...test2...
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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