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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #19,361
  • Jun 4, 2015 12:19pm Jun 4, 2015 12:19pm
Begun...

On Eve of EU Vote to Extend Russian Sanctions War Returns to Ukraine

http://russia-insider.com/en/politic...ukraine/ri7711

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,362
  • Jun 4, 2015 3:21pm Jun 4, 2015 3:21pm
What a great day - was motorcycling the last 9 hours

Hope they did not get me speeding

I see you all cared good for me and brought price down. Well done - many thanks


Nice reading:


http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...to-Sender.aspx
  • #19,363
  • Jun 4, 2015 3:29pm Jun 4, 2015 3:29pm
Quoting priceaction1
@infinitus this time more amazing!!! http://www.dawnnews.tv/news/1022077

Damn, you are living in paradise. Admire you........

Should plan a trip to Pakistan. Maybe 2017......



Thank you very much for sharing


The Photographer is outstanding good
  • #19,364
  • Jun 4, 2015 3:46pm Jun 4, 2015 3:46pm
Quoting stringfx
Dear Infinitus, I had a chart from Sid, 19th may when he posted on elliotwavepredictions.com. The chart seem to be working out as of now. I am aware that many ellioticians view charts differently and of course i don't want to confuse anyone with this chart but i would like to know your view on the viability of this chart working out for the longer term. Most of the ellioticians predict a down move for the 5th wave on eur/usd. This chart shows just the opposite. {image}

Hi Stingfx,

thank you for sharing the chart


I have a similar chart I do follow as alternative count.

Yesterday I wrote the following:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...30#post8303030


This would be the scenario C) in above posting.


The problem with the long term count is, that it is still open to multiple interpretations.

I think from a pure wave perspective Sid's scenario and the other scenarios, which call for more downside have the same probability.



So let us take a quick view on fundamentals:


The question is: what would cause the people to abandon the USD and to buy Euros?


a) total loss of faith in USD and/or US-politics

b) FED does not hike rates and starts another round of QE

c) ECB abandons their QE earlier due to outstanding economic data and inflation


Only thing I can imagine right now is point b)

I think that the FED is between a rock and a hard plate. On the one side they need to hike rates in order to deflate some bubbles a bit. On the other side they can not really afford to hike rates with rather weak economic data.


Once again back to the counts: I am under the impression, that when the majority of Elliotticans do look at the same count it is most of the time the wrong count.

Right now I would not bet the farm on long term moves, because neither sentiment data, nor COT positioning data, nor wave structure give us a high probability scenario.

Keep positions small until we get better pictures......



Sorry for not being able to say something better
  • #19,365
  • Jun 4, 2015 4:02pm Jun 4, 2015 4:02pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Damn, you are living in paradise. Admire you........ Should plan a trip to Pakistan. Maybe 2017...... Thank you very much for sharing The Photographer is outstanding good
always
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #19,366
  • Jun 4, 2015 4:47pm Jun 4, 2015 4:47pm
8H chart ...
double top or breakout ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Captura de ecra de 2015-06-04 22:34:09.png Size: 128 KB
  • #19,367
  • Jun 4, 2015 5:32pm Jun 4, 2015 5:32pm
China Blamed For "Largest Theft Of US Government Data Ever" - 95% Of Federal Employees Affected


I spy
You spy
he/she/it spies
we spy
you spy
they spy

  • #19,368
  • Jun 4, 2015 5:33pm Jun 4, 2015 5:33pm
Quoting infinitus
China Blamed For "Largest Theft Of US Government Data Ever" - 95% Of Federal Employees Affected I spy You spy he/she/it spies we spy you spy they spy

I will be spying
you will be spying
he/she/it will be spying
we will be spying
you will be spying
they will be spying
  • #19,369
  • Jun 5, 2015 1:37am Jun 5, 2015 1:37am
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} always
, So, priceaction1, is it a real place you are living?

My son dreams might come true...

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,370
  • Jun 5, 2015 2:37am Jun 5, 2015 2:37am
Quoting chess king
8H chart ... double top or breakout ? {image}
NFP will tell today
  • #19,371
  • Jun 5, 2015 5:02am Jun 5, 2015 5:02am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi DP, I think it is by now clear, that the plane was taken down by a BUK rocket. Question not resolved is, who and from where the rocket was launched. I saw some "evidence", that Separatists were in possession of at least one BUK system at the given time. But you know: when the secret services try to manipulate data, often enough they do it pretty good. I heard, that the Separatists were at the time being given information from inside Ukraine, when Military planes would be off ground and over east Ukraine. Under this scenario the MH 17...

OK,

another piece of propaganda fall apart, it seems:


‘Reading tea leaves’: German expert questions Bellingcat’s MH17 photo scoop
  • #19,372
  • Jun 5, 2015 5:03am Jun 5, 2015 5:03am
​TTIP will legalize cancer-causing chemicals banned by EU, trade union warns
  • #19,373
  • Jun 5, 2015 7:49am Jun 5, 2015 7:49am
Quoting infinitus
EU seems like this at the moment {image}


nice test of the channel and 50% retracement of the move down from yesterday
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot.png Size: 56 KB
  • #19,374
  • Jun 5, 2015 7:54am Jun 5, 2015 7:54am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} , So, priceaction1, is it a real place you are living? My son dreams might come true... Best D.P.
yes it is if you miss than have a look this one too.

http://www.dawnnews.tv/news/1021007/...hdi-bukhari-bm
http://www.dawnnews.tv/news/1020508/...hdi-bukhari-bm
http://www.dawnnews.tv/news/1020162/...hdi-bukhari-bm
http://www.dawnnews.tv/news/1019794/...hdi-bukhari-bm
http://www.dawnnews.tv/news/1019255/...hdi-bukhari-bm
http://www.dawnnews.tv/news/1018817/...hdi-bukhari-bm
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #19,375
  • Jun 5, 2015 8:21am Jun 5, 2015 8:21am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} nice test of the channel and 50% retracement of the move down from yesterday {image}
Looking at that chart as a whole, that is largely bearish, for this to get back into 1350 would be very unlikely thing to happen. So 095 should be valid to come soon.
Your view?
  • #19,376
  • Jun 5, 2015 8:27am Jun 5, 2015 8:27am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Looking at that chart as a whole, that is largely bearish, for this to get back into 1350 would be very unlikely thing to happen. So 095 should be valid to come soon. Your view?

absolutely agree

after 095 area and consolidating there, I do expect more downside towards the yearly bottom
  • #19,377
  • Jun 5, 2015 8:49am Jun 5, 2015 8:49am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} NFP will tell today
yes.

yesterday the risk to top was less than 100 pips to win 300 or more... very good R/R.
  • #19,378
  • Jun 5, 2015 9:30am Jun 5, 2015 9:30am
Quoting infinitus
a) the end of an ABC-flat (up) which is a wave 4 this seems to be invalidated, unless the wave 5 down develops now as ending diagonal (3-3-3-3-3) since we have now two waves down, it would need now 2 waves up (ABC or ABC-x-ABC) this would lead to a deep retracing wave 2 of 5 (in this case we could be now in ABC-x-A with B and C to come) b) the end of an ABC-flat (up), which is only part of a bigger correction basically like above. The scenario would be, that the first 2 waves down were A, now 2 waves up for B, and then impulsive down for wave C...

maybe this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_4 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 98 KB
  • #19,379
  • Jun 5, 2015 10:13am Jun 5, 2015 10:13am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} nice test of the channel and 50% retracement of the move down from yesterday {image}
this move seems to be some sort of hidden gap closing.
still long bias (one long open), when i look at monthly chart, and if we can forget the drama about greece a bit, we can assume that in the end a deal will happen, greece will stay, and euro will gain, as US rate hike may be delayed once more to sometime in the next decade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6.PNG Size: 36 KB
just do it
  • #19,380
  • Jun 5, 2015 10:43am Jun 5, 2015 10:43am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Looking at that chart as a whole, that is largely bearish, for this to get back into 1350 would be very unlikely thing to happen. So 095 should be valid to come soon. Your view?

Picture is not so easy now
Techically one could think higher bottoms 1,046 1,08, 1,017 and higher tops 1,1 1,13 1,14....
The Swiss nationalbank looks to be buying euros do they think the euro bottom is there.
Fundamentally Europe is improving
Rates in the eurosone are rising.
The greek drama is over to the 30 june.

On the other side Dreagi still wants the rates down with QE and the US data not too good.
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