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  • #8,941
  • Jun 4, 2015 12:23pm Jun 4, 2015 12:23pm
Ah finally, do we move to the lower floor, i.e. 2070/2080 up to 2100 range on /ES...

Go bear call spreads, go...


anyone buying the dip now?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,942
  • Jun 4, 2015 12:30pm Jun 4, 2015 12:30pm
Quoting StrayDog
Ah finally, do we move to the lower floor, i.e. 2070/2080 up to 2100 range on /ES... Go bear call spreads, go... anyone buying the dip now?
nope, just more puts
  • #8,943
  • Jun 4, 2015 12:33pm Jun 4, 2015 12:33pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} got the close 95.36, targeting 90.88 which could mean if my analysis are correct a move down to 90.88 get get a visit which may see a minor sell off in the indices and euro and pound moving much higher over the coming weeks, would the Greek news confirm this??????
hoping this is the start of a bigger drop in indices over the next few months, the news out of the IMF certainly helps with this
  • #8,944
  • Jun 4, 2015 12:34pm Jun 4, 2015 12:34pm
I don't trust it to stay down for more than a day, SDog - any minute the tweets will start pouring in: omg, Greece is saved, the PBOC is dropping gold coins all over the world, something....looking to close out of some call credit spreads now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,945
  • Jun 4, 2015 1:13pm Jun 4, 2015 1:13pm
Quoting The Fool
I don't trust it to stay down for more than a day, SDog - any minute the tweets will start pouring in: omg, Greece is saved, the PBOC is dropping gold coins all over the world, something....looking to close out of some call credit spreads now....
Bears need to keep the ES bellow 2100... if we see tomorrow another red day... that is it my friend, IMO... moving to the lower floor.
But, since this market is like Freddy Krueger, anything is possible... so far, so good, VIX above $15... Would like to see above $16 values to sell some junk...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,946
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:09pm Jun 4, 2015 2:09pm
Quoting The Fool
looking to close out of some call credit spreads now....
didn't get out of anything yet, not stressing....

...why fiber has not dropped like a brick is beyond me, though
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,947
  • Jun 4, 2015 6:59pm Jun 4, 2015 6:59pm
Quoting The Fool
...why fiber has not dropped like a brick is beyond me, though
trying to break $112.00, I'd like to see $111.00 Friday. A strong NFP will get it. I am expecting a stronger than forecast NFP to print and extend the selloff in US equities that got started today.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,948
  • Jun 5, 2015 7:39am Jun 5, 2015 7:39am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} trying to break $112.00, I'd like to see $111.00 Friday. A strong NFP will get it. I am expecting a stronger than forecast NFP to print and extend the selloff in US equities that got started today.
Bingo....fiber down 135 pips...lets see if equities can keep on sliding
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,949
  • Jun 5, 2015 8:03am Jun 5, 2015 8:03am
strong NFP puts Sept ffr hike in the sights of the bond market, UST futures sliding, TLT should gap down to $117.xx, US equities bull case a little shakier every day
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,950
  • Jun 5, 2015 8:18am Jun 5, 2015 8:18am
Quoting StrayDog
... I just did my first /ES options bear call spread, June 2140/2150 for $3.20 CR, with /ES around 2107.50. ....
Sold on 5/27... used this NFP move to bought it back for $1.60... Experiment with a happy end.

Still holding the July 2155/2165 bear call spreads.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,951
  • Jun 5, 2015 8:27am Jun 5, 2015 8:27am
Quoting StrayDog
Still holding the July 2155/2165 bear call spreads.
new US index highs this Summer gonna be a tough uphill climb with Fed rate hike action looming and Greece drama unresolved.....we should see USD getting stronger & that will weigh on equities and oil, too. We prolly still see bull strength spikes to sell calls into, though....good job, SDog, keep the good ones coming in
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,952
  • Jun 5, 2015 8:32am Jun 5, 2015 8:32am
Quoting The Fool
I bought the FXE Jun2 $108 puts for $0.24, looking to leg into a cheap debit spread, watching for the $107.50 puts to come up.....
sold out for $0.66
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,953
  • Jun 5, 2015 9:03am Jun 5, 2015 9:03am
bought out of many SPY call spreads, a few of the $215 short spreads left, still looking to get out around 80% profit, no probs when the market cooperates. Sitting on cash, looking for that inevitable btfd spike in US equities.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,954
  • Jun 5, 2015 11:35am Jun 5, 2015 11:35am
Quoting The Fool
...good job, SDog, keep the good ones coming in
Thnx man... just to learn to squeeze more juice, since that mofo I closed is about $1.20 now... But I never did understand NFP quite well, so I removed some of the risk from the table.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,955
  • Jun 5, 2015 2:13pm Jun 5, 2015 2:13pm
I am out of all SPY bear call credit spreads, save one - a Jun $216/$218, trying to buy out for a nickel & just a cent or 2 away...need a little dip into the close. With Greece swept under the rug for a little while I will not be surprised to see US equities rebound some next week, in which case I will be looking to do more of the same old same old.

Have a great weekend ya'll.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,956
  • Jun 5, 2015 2:44pm Jun 5, 2015 2:44pm
Quoting The Fool
I am out of all SPY bear call credit spreads, save one - a Jun $216/$218, trying to buy out for a nickel & just a cent or 2 away
Out of all short SPY verts , need to reload, looking for a little btfd action next week
....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,957
  • Jun 5, 2015 6:42pm Jun 5, 2015 6:42pm
Got one SPY short vert hanging on by a thread with 43 days DTE. Will probs turn my attention to DIA next week; a little bit more vol there than in SPY/IWM (which ain't sayin' much).

GLD's moving into a range where I'd like to go short put vertical; considering 106/109 July 17. Mid is currently .49, but would probably put an order for higher than that. BE is like 108.51, so I could probably go even more aggressive (the year's low for GLD is 110-ish) (107/110 for .63 with a BE of 109.37).

I considered SLV, but there isn't much oomph there ... . Hard to eek out .50 with a short put vertical in SLV given the price of the underlying ... . For similar reasons, can't do shit with USO. (Which says that I need to get into futures ... . Some of these proxies ain't worth crap.)

With TLT, I got in at a good time with a fairly wide strangle for a 1.28 credit (114/124; July 17th expiry) and rolled down the call side once to capture some additional premium.

Tell you one thing, these earnings plays aren't all they're cracked up to be. It's great when they go your way; sucks when they don't. They tie up buying power if they don't work out and you've got to roll them out to either wait to be right or to gradually chip away at your loss. Hard to find the right balance between bread and butter trades and earnings plays ... .

I keep on looking at verts versus other strategies for SPY, IWM, or DIA. The only way I'd probably embrace IC's is if I skewed them to the downside:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DIA Skewed IC.jpg Size: 138 KB


A Broken Fly would be another way to go:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DIA Broken Fly.jpg Size: 121 KB


The fact is that, as you increase the number of legs, you increase the complexity of managing the trade if it goes wrong. Verts and diagonals are just simpler to manage than butterflies or iron condors ... . Just my two cents ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,958
  • Jun 5, 2015 7:27pm Jun 5, 2015 7:27pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Got one SPY short vert hanging on by a thread with 43 days DTE. Will probs turn my attention to DIA next week; a little bit more vol there than in SPY/IWM (which ain't sayin' much). GLD's moving into a range where I'd like to go short put vertical; considering 106/109 July 17. Mid is currently .49, but would probably put an order for higher than that. BE is like 108.51, so I could probably go even more aggressive (the year's low for GLD is 110-ish) (107/110 for .63 with a BE of 109.37). I considered SLV, but there isn't much oomph there ... . Hard...
Also don't like the POP%-age for IC's ... . You can have all the IC occurrences you want, but it's probably not going to help your overall POP; to do that, you're going to have to go with more high probability set-ups ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,959
  • Jun 5, 2015 8:26pm Jun 5, 2015 8:26pm
hey ZS, I have been looking for short put SPY spreads to pair against all the short call spreads I have been putting on, silly not to let that margin ride free for a little more reward, but when I look at 25 deltas and less on a $2 spread, the payout has not been persuasive, compared to the risk, so....no complaints anyway, just things would be better if there could be a little more vol, maybe we will get it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,960
  • Jun 5, 2015 11:31pm Jun 5, 2015 11:31pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Verts and diagonals are just simpler to manage than butterflies or iron condors ... . Just my two cents ... .
Yeah, I still put on long diagonals pretty regularly. But I don't get too worked up about them. The safe way to play them is to push the strikes way out, so you have a chance of avoiding the "death slide" - the heavy loss that comes from a move beyond your long strikes. When they work out well the P/L can be impressive, but they tie up margin for a time-consuming trade that often doesn't return much. The "attraction" is they are a long spread and you can put them on for a credit. However, they usually go on for pretty small credit....If I want credit I'd rather be selling verticals. I have not looked at selling diagonals - for various reasons.

Below is a SPY Jun4/Jun5 DD, $202/$201 - $219/$220 --- the still is how the P/L looks today and the vid plays out the 3 weeks remaining til expiry. If we get a breakdown in the SnP and we finish the month around $202, I could end up making $350 on a 5 lot trade that I put on for a small net credit, something like $0.05 net after comms.

OK, big whoop, I 'd rather tie up some margin and sell a otm vertical spread and get paid for the decay. But I have made some big gains on the diagonals, (and a big loss or 2) - so I will prolly keep playing them.

http://screencast.com/t/H1ksSGGJH0
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-06-05_DIAG1.png Size: 77 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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