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  • #8,921
  • Jun 3, 2015 10:47am Jun 3, 2015 10:47am
the shit is tightening into a range like a snake ready to strike, it can't flatline forever, & when it breaks, omgggg, gonna be epic...well, maybe.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,922
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:27am Jun 3, 2015 11:27am
Probably an epic 2% correction.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,923
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:30am Jun 3, 2015 11:30am
Quoting StrayDog
Probably an epic 2% correction.
sold!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,924
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:36am Jun 3, 2015 11:36am
UST's getting crushed - $2 moves on TLT not so common, steady selling all week, could drop $8+ for the week....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,925
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:51am Jun 3, 2015 11:51am
Quoting The Fool
UST's getting crushed - $2 moves on TLT not so common, steady selling all week, could drop $8+ for the week....
Gold getting dumped, US equities coming off, maybe they even turn red b4 the day is out --- it's a move to cash? And fiber is up?

what the fuq?

If the markets are positioning for a defensive stance against a sovereign debt shock brought on by a (baby) Greek default, what's wrong with the picture? Fiber should be selling off....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,926
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:57am Jun 3, 2015 11:57am
Quoting The Fool
Fiber should be selling off....
I bought the FXE Jun2 $108 puts for $0.24, looking to leg into a cheap debit spread, watching for the $107.50 puts to come up.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,927
  • Jun 3, 2015 12:23pm Jun 3, 2015 12:23pm
Quoting The Fool
If the markets are positioning for a defensive stance against a sovereign debt shock brought on by a (baby) Greek default, what's wrong with the picture? Fiber should be selling off....
...and UST's should bounce if there is a bit of a move to safety - TLT should bounce, already has come up 50c off its low today
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,928
  • Jun 3, 2015 2:07pm Jun 3, 2015 2:07pm
Hey TF....

I noticed in last 4-5 trading days that volume is increased... Last Friday about 1.65 M on /ES, after that every day over 1.1 M...
Today 1.12 M so far... with about an hour to go... So, volume increased on Friday, a down day... and after that keeps printing above 1 M...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,929
  • Jun 3, 2015 3:33pm Jun 3, 2015 3:33pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I'm monitoring the USD cash index for clues and we're right on edge here at 95.99, a break and close beneath tomorrow will not look good for the indices going forward if Greece gets saved we may get a reprieve but I'm looking ahead to next ER and a strong dollar has to have some effect to results, technically big cap stocks like APPLE already had a key reversal bear candle 2 weeks ago and looking for that stock to fall to around 115 area and the DOW has been looking weak for the last month in my opinion
got the close 95.36, targeting 90.88 which could mean if my analysis are correct a move down to 90.88 get get a visit which may see a minor sell off in the indices and euro and pound moving much higher over the coming weeks, would the Greek news confirm this??????
  • #8,930
  • Jun 3, 2015 3:40pm Jun 3, 2015 3:40pm
yeah Cecil the Greece gambit is in play til Friday but also even beyond that. But if they miss that IMF payment Friday and that bleeds all over the news, we should see fiber drop hard along with equities. Friday gonna be a big day also with NFP and OPEC meeting, plenty room for surprises
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,931
  • Jun 3, 2015 3:42pm Jun 3, 2015 3:42pm
Quoting StrayDog
Hey TF.... I noticed in last 4-5 trading days that volume is increased......
yeah I noticed that too, can only be a good sign, we need more volume to break this logjam
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,932
  • Jun 3, 2015 3:43pm Jun 3, 2015 3:43pm
Quoting The Fool
yeah Cecil the Greece gambit is in play til Friday but also even beyond that. But if they miss that IMF payment Friday and that bleeds all over the news, we should see fiber drop hard along with equities. Friday gonna be a big day also with NFP and OPEC meeting, plenty room for surprises
I hear ya, Greece may not agree with what I see technically, trading and treading very carefully
  • #8,933
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:02pm Jun 3, 2015 11:02pm
to read on the ferry, check the "working papers" section

http://godotfinance.com/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,934
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:38pm Jun 3, 2015 11:38pm
Quoting Vermeer
Hi Guys, Anyone familiar with Brian Johnson's books? I've just read "Option Strategy Risk / Return Ratios" with the concepts of Delta/theta riskratio and Vega/theta risk ratio. The book offers some nice reflections on the greeks & risks in option income strategies.
Hey, Vermeer - did you use the Excel spreadsheet to do the calcs explained in the B. Johnson book? If so, were you able to get the results as they were presented in the book? Did you need to have live input ( a data feed)? Would appreciate any comment re: the usefulness of the Excel resource, as several Amazon reviewers said it was useless...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,935
  • Jun 4, 2015 1:48am Jun 4, 2015 1:48am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-doubt-tombini

13.75% now in Brazil....golly. I have Jun EWZ $32 call calendars, looking to cash out soon, perhaps the tighter real will push down on the Bovespa and EWZ, too....I had a 75% net gainer cued up to close a couple days ago, shoulda coulda woulda....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,936
  • Jun 4, 2015 4:08am Jun 4, 2015 4:08am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Hey, Vermeer - did you use the Excel spreadsheet to do the calcs explained in the B. Johnson book? If so, were you able to get the results as they were presented in the book? Did you need to have live input ( a data feed)? Would appreciate any comment re: the usefulness of the Excel resource, as several Amazon reviewers said it was useless...
Thanks for the feedback! I'm reading one of those comments ('Impractical' with attached images) now and there's some truth in it I guess... Especially the point that it's less useful in Earnings Season (but hey, Johnson's got another book on that subject :nerd:blush:. As for now, I'm only using the risk-ratios for a rough guideline in monitoring the risk of the option spreads. When delta/vega-theta ratio is too high, I try to adjust the option spread. But for the payoff structure I rely heavily on Interactive Brokers Risk Navigator.

I downloaded the spreadsheets as well but since some calculations seem to be protected I tried to make a spreadsheet by my own with the excel-formula's presented in the book. That works, with all ratio's updated more or less realtime but I'm not yet able to make the same graphs (no excel-wizard either ). I use Interactive Brokers API Excel/DDE-spreadsheet for a realtime link of the greeks into the spreadsheet. Problem is that the greeks are only presented in the IB Excel-spreadsheet when the market is open (unlike IB's Option Trader, so manual entry is sometimes required)...
  • #8,937
  • Jun 4, 2015 8:45am Jun 4, 2015 8:45am
IMF Urges Fed to Postpone Rate Liftoff to First Half of 2016
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-ur...aWQDBHNlYwNzYw--

wow
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,938
  • Jun 4, 2015 8:52am Jun 4, 2015 8:52am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I bought the FXE Jun2 $108 puts for $0.24, looking to leg into a cheap debit spread, watching for the $107.50 puts to come up.....
I guess Chrissie Lagarde is buying the euro, too...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,939
  • Jun 4, 2015 8:54am Jun 4, 2015 8:54am
Quoting Vermeer
{quote} Thanks for the feedback! I'm reading one of those comments ('Impractical' with attached images) now and there's some truth in it I guess...
thank you, Vermeer - I will prolly take a $26 chance on the book. If nothing else it will give me a chance to hone my understanding of the greeks
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,940
  • Jun 4, 2015 10:29am Jun 4, 2015 10:29am
PA today

Inserted Video


O yeah... shake tha bithez... kill tha stop losses...

Yeah, just use TIGHT stop loss, BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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