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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #19,321
  • Edited Jun 3, 2015 12:29am Jun 2, 2015 2:32pm | Edited Jun 3, 2015 12:29am
MH17 Deals

BREAKING: BUK Manufacturer Insists MH17 Was Shot Down by Ukrainian Missile

http://russia-insider.com/en/politic...missile/ri7650

BUK Manufacturer Almaz-Antey Speaks Out on MH17 Tragedy

http://russia-insider.com/en/militar...aks-out/ri7657

Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Read more. Saakashvili in Charge of Ukraine's Odessa Is a Disaster Waiting to Happen http://russia-insider.com/en/saakash...-odessa/ri7600 Best D.P.
Will Crazy Saakashvili Start Another War From Odessa?

http://russia-insider.com/en/odessa-...her-war/ri7628

Best
D.P.

P.S. The Transnistrian Moldovan Republic (TMR) is the possible "key" for his appointment.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,322
  • Jun 3, 2015 9:41am Jun 3, 2015 9:41am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
MH17 Deals BREAKING: BUK Manufacturer Insists MH17 Was Shot Down by Ukrainian Missile http://russia-insider.com/en/politic...missile/ri7650 BUK Manufacturer Almaz-Antey Speaks Out on MH17 Tragedy http://russia-insider.com/en/militar...aks-out/ri7657 {quote} Will Crazy Saakashvili Start Another War From Odessa? http://russia-insider.com/en/odessa-...her-war/ri7628 Best...

Hi DP,

I think it is by now clear, that the plane was taken down by a BUK rocket.

Question not resolved is, who and from where the rocket was launched.

I saw some "evidence", that Separatists were in possession of at least one BUK system at the given time.

But you know: when the secret services try to manipulate data, often enough they do it pretty good.



I heard, that the Separatists were at the time being given information from inside Ukraine, when Military planes would be off ground and over east Ukraine.

Under this scenario the MH 17 may be have shot down mistakenly. The BUK system can see the plane, but the operator can not identify the plan all the time.



But other questions are even so interesting:


A) why did the Ukraine did not give out the black boxes?

B) why was the air space open for commercial flights?

C) was the Ukraine in need for cash to have not shut down the air space?

D) why have the flight corporations not refused to take such a route? Since it was the shortest route, they may have done so in order to safe money.

E) why have international Governments done nothing to prevent flights over battle ground?
  • #19,323
  • Jun 3, 2015 9:49am Jun 3, 2015 9:49am
Quoting infinitus
EU The following volume profile was created since the top at 1.1444 we can see a POC at 1118 and a low volume zone surrounding 1060 should price overjump the 1060 area, we may see churning mode towards the 1118 POC. Break of 1118 will most likely lead to test of 1218-1236 area {image} {image}

OK, let us take a look:

the 1060 was overjumped with a momentum move. Learning is: when price consolidates in front of no-businesszone, chance is very high that the zone will be overjumped. Consolidating before such a zone is kind of momentum reloading

The 1118 POC was taken out quickly. As I have noted several times: when price reaches a high volume area, it often enough tries the upper or lower tail of that distribution.

I do avoid to set SL in the vicinity of a POC because of that behaviour. There are other opinions out (books etc.) which say, that a POC is a strong support or resistance place.

I think this is more or less wrong. When price enters a high volume zone it will most likely test the upper and lower bounds again.
  • #19,324
  • Jun 3, 2015 9:53am Jun 3, 2015 9:53am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi DP, I think it is by now clear, that the plane was taken down by a BUK rocket. Question not resolved is, who and from where the rocket was launched. I saw some "evidence", that Separatists were in possession of at least one BUK system at the given time. But you know: when the secret services try to manipulate data, often enough they do it pretty good. I heard, that the Separatists were at the time being given information from inside Ukraine, when Military planes would be off ground and over east Ukraine. Under this scenario the MH 17...
Yes, you're right. Dirty games.
Anyway, I hope we will know of the real situation one day.

As to your questions - they might become rhetorical in one year, not being answered.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,325
  • Jun 3, 2015 10:33am Jun 3, 2015 10:33am
EU

let us look at the movements:


starting from the last high at 1.14x

this high could mark

a) the end of an ABC-flat (up) which is a wave 4

b) the end of an ABC-flat (up), which is only part of a bigger correction

c) the 1.04x low marked the intermediate end of a bigger move down. Now we are in an overlaping move up, which can be a leading diagonal. In this Leading diagonal we may be now in wave 5 up. The 1.14x high was the end of the wave 3



The movement down from the 1.14x top looks most likely like an ABC-move. There are some elliotticans out with counting this as an impulse. It seems one can do this, but it does not look right for me.

When counting ABC, then C is a bit short of 100% of A


Now let us look at the move up:

We had this overlapping movement from the 0819 low to the 1006 high. When we take this and put a fib-expansion on it, then the next peak at 1194 was pretty much 161.8% of this first overlapping wave.

The following retracement lead to a 38.2% decline of the previous wave up. Would fit nicely with a 4th wave within an impulse.

So most likely for now we are now in the wave 5 of an impulse up from the 0819 low. It may terminate around 1300-1310



What can we make out of this information:


down from the 14x top is most likely 2 waves (ABC)

up from 0819 so far looks like impulse


So let us look again on the 3 possible outcomes presented in the first rows:


a) the end of an ABC-flat (up) which is a wave 4

this seems to be invalidated, unless the wave 5 down develops now as ending diagonal (3-3-3-3-3)


since we have now two waves down, it would need now 2 waves up (ABC or ABC-x-ABC)

this would lead to a deep retracing wave 2 of 5 (in this case we could be now in ABC-x-A with B and C to come)



b) the end of an ABC-flat (up), which is only part of a bigger correction

basically like above. The scenario would be, that the first 2 waves down were A, now 2 waves up for B, and then impulsive down for wave C (ABC-flat)

In this case we should see a retracement of at least to 1372, and max. 1714. I would go with the 1372

The following impulse down should bring us towards 1,09 to 1.07 area


c) the 1.04x low marked the intermediate end of a bigger move down. Now we are in an overlapping move up, which can be a leading diagonal. In this Leading diagonal we may be now in wave 5 up. The 1.14x high was the end of the wave 3

In this case we would make a new high above 1.14x, probably 1714 to 2115

Keep in mind: the wave 2 after a leading diagonal retraces very deep. Normally around 80-85% of wave 1. That should bring us back also into the 1.08-1.06 area.

The problem with this count is:

it would have 2 Leading diagonals:

one as wave 1 of 1, the other as wave 1 of 5


Leading diagonals are rare. 2 Leading diagonals in one impulse nearly impossible. WWhen I remember right, Prechter does expect leading diagonals only in wave 1, not in wave 5


The other problem with this count:

it would look against some fundamentals, with the US about to hike rates. And this count would deliver much higher targets for the next 12 months or so.


So from a probability point of view I would go with variant A (the ending diagonal scenario) or B
  • #19,326
  • Jun 3, 2015 10:39am Jun 3, 2015 10:39am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Yes, you're right. Dirty games. Anyway, I hope we will know of the real situation one day. As to your questions - they might become rhetorical in one year, not being answered. Best D.P.

The air zone above East-Ukraine is and was battle zone.

No one who is right in his mind would let a passenger plan fly over this area.

Even when the Separatist did take the plan down, the burden for this is to be taken on the Ukraine and the flight corporations.

In war such things can happen and are called collateral damage (even so I hate to say, and feel sad for the persons and families)
  • #19,327
  • Jun 3, 2015 10:47am Jun 3, 2015 10:47am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} The air zone above East-Ukraine is and was battle zone. No one who is right in his mind would let a passenger plan fly over this area. Even when the Separatist did take the plan down, the burden for this is to be taken on the Ukraine and the flight corporations. In war such things can happen and are called collateral damage (even so I hate to say, and feel sad for the persons and families)
Absolutely agreed. The flight area at the battle zone should had been closed for civilian flights.
Sadly indeed.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,328
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:03am Jun 3, 2015 11:03am
Hmm, by looking at the retail broker outlets, one can see, that most retail trader are still short. So should we prepared for more upside?
  • #19,329
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:23am Jun 3, 2015 11:23am
Quoting infinitus
Hmm, by looking at the retail broker outlets, one can see, that most retail trader are still short. So should we prepared for more upside?
i have started shorting... Small short at 12.80. SL at BE. I do not know if it wants to go to 13.xx
  • #19,330
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:30am Jun 3, 2015 11:30am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} i have started shorting... Small short at 12.80. SL at BE. I do not know if it wants to go to 13.xx

I have also started to build first smaller positions @ 1274, but am aware that it can easily jump higher.

Have a channel line around 1308
  • #19,331
  • Jun 3, 2015 1:29pm Jun 3, 2015 1:29pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I have also started to build first smaller positions @ 1274, but am aware that it can easily jump higher. Have a channel line around 1308
1274 was great to short multi times. Atm its still weak, 235 is open for test, the rest will be told better tomorrow. On higher frames in my view 280 is very significant one, if we pass that (with test above 320) we have daily with LL but retrace fully into supply which is most of the time further bullish with high break (450). So any shorts should be killed then, unless they are added on tight risk right on 450 top.
So this are my two scenarios i play on main account 280 is key one for both of them (bear scenario i want close bellow 204 for further confirmation).
In other words 280 has to hold as top without serious breach to give bears a chance.
http://prntscr.com/7cqhqe
  • #19,332
  • Edited 3:02pm Jun 3, 2015 1:35pm | Edited 3:02pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I have also started to build first smaller positions @ 1274, but am aware that it can easily jump higher. Have a channel line around 1308
What is your target? I feel the big players are trying to confuse. When one think it is going up it goes down and opposite. When we saw New highs last time one expected it to og to 1,18 but then straight down to 1,08 and when one expect it to og Down to 1,040 again it goes straight up to 1,1290. They are trying to confuse now. And such big moves 1-2 percent up and down every day. Quite crazy now and noone sees the direction
  • #19,333
  • Jun 3, 2015 5:15pm Jun 3, 2015 5:15pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} 1274 was great to short multi times. Atm its still weak, 235 is open for test, the rest will be told better tomorrow. On higher frames in my view 280 is very significant one, if we pass that (with test above 320) we have daily with LL but retrace fully into supply which is most of the time further bullish with high break (450). So any shorts should be killed then, unless they are added on tight risk right on 450 top. So this are my two scenarios i play on main account 280 is key one for both of them (bear scenario i want close bellow 204...

  • #19,334
  • Jun 3, 2015 5:16pm Jun 3, 2015 5:16pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} What is your target? I feel the big players are trying to confuse. When one think it is going up it goes down and opposite. When we saw New highs last time one expected it to og to 1,18 but then straight down to 1,08 and when one expect it to og Down to 1,040 again it goes straight up to 1,1290. They are trying to confuse now. And such big moves 1-2 percent up and down every day. Quite crazy now and noone sees the direction

see here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...30#post8303030


basically between 1.09 to 1.06
  • #19,335
  • Jun 3, 2015 7:53pm Jun 3, 2015 7:53pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} see here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...30#post8303030 basically between 1.09 to 1.06

Might not be a good idea to short atm. due to buying pressure still dominating market.. better wait 1-2 days.

Bulls is in aggressive tone, imo.

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  • #19,336
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:04am Jun 4, 2015 2:04am
Murrey Math over volume profiles

EU
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  • #19,337
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:05am Jun 4, 2015 2:05am
volume profiles EU
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  • #19,338
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:08am Jun 4, 2015 2:08am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Might not be a good idea to short atm. due to buying pressure still dominating market.. better wait 1-2 days. Bulls is in aggressive tone, imo. {image}

Hi Mate,

I am a bit indecisive here. I also see a good potential for one more leg up here.

Have SL now at 1270 (+5)
  • #19,339
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:41am Jun 4, 2015 2:41am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Mate, I am a bit indecisive here. I also see a good potential for one more leg up here. Have SL now at 1270 (+5)

do not like what I see

covered @ 1255 for +19
  • #19,340
  • Jun 4, 2015 2:46am Jun 4, 2015 2:46am
Greece: Out Of Cash, Out Of Time, Out Of Options
Submitted by http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...603_greece.jpg
Most commentary still appears predicated on the idea that there will be some last-minute deal - either because the creditors will back down and give Greece some more money without requiring it to be paid back or because the Greek government will back down if it understands that not doing so would ultimately mean leaving the euro. On the other hand, some believe neither side is particularly interested in achieving a deal.
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