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PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

  • #701
  • Jun 3, 2015 7:56am Jun 3, 2015 7:56am
Quoting SkullCandy
{quote} Wow, thanks! will study hard thanks to you, MauroJ and ofc fisher, for a great job.. This thread is hot ppl! Keep up the good work, i hope you will
SkullCandy,

Well,do me a favor,help the others when you succeed,just post your result here and explain how and why you made the trade.

Mauro-J's post do provide good explain too.

Because he taught me.

Best Regards,
...
  • #702
  • Jun 3, 2015 8:00am Jun 3, 2015 8:00am
AUDUSD Short Trade Open:

Per previous posts on AUD Alert! I have entered short here, because now the bear PA waves extend below the Trend, and because I just woke up. No TP, SL at this time. This could turn into a very good potential H&S formation if the MMs run it back up. Cannot know.
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  • #703
  • Jun 3, 2015 8:02am Jun 3, 2015 8:02am
t
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} My PVSRA Reading on GU as the basic reasons for my shorts on this pair: See my ss (based on M15 TF) Box#1; its the bullish candle as the great upward movement by MMs on yesterday while the great momentum comes. The green candle with nice shape - wide spread bar with nice activity too. Then, there are two bullish candle on tops (blue bars), Its just above the key level SR - whole number 1.53000 and created a nice pin bar on tops. MMs seems like to closed their longs. But, wait, as usual i mentioned "dont conclude too earlier", wee need more...
congratulations on your analysis .. MJ, which configurations you changed the accessory panel to display the levels for each full number ...
  • #704
  • Jun 3, 2015 8:04am Jun 3, 2015 8:04am
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} EURJPY short trade opened {image}
EJ short trade closed -40.5 pips
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #705
  • Jun 3, 2015 8:07am Jun 3, 2015 8:07am
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} My PVSRA Reading on GU as the basic reasons for my shorts on this pair: See my ss (based on M15 TF) Box#1; its the bullish candle as the great upward movement by MMs on yesterday while the great momentum comes. The green candle with nice shape - wide spread bar with nice activity too. Then, there are two bullish candle on tops (blue bars), Its just above the key level SR - whole number 1.53000 and created a nice pin bar on tops. MMs seems like to closed their longs. But, wait, as usual i mentioned "dont conclude too earlier", wee need more...
GU, short trades closed for gain +140.7 pips total
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #706
  • Jun 3, 2015 8:11am Jun 3, 2015 8:11am
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} XAUUSD short trade opened. For me, its potentially to fall lower based to the swing of the bigger picture. If im lucky, i'll have a nice shorts, but if im not lucky of course i'll loss some pips. all risk counted, some plan have been made, time will tell. MJ {image} {image} {image} {image}
GOLD short trades closed for gain +35.8 pips total
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #707
  • Jun 3, 2015 8:27am Jun 3, 2015 8:27am
EURJPY Short Trade Open:

MMs have just given this a really good, fast pump. And it seems to me that if this pump were the start of a bull move, then SM would have been loading up their long orders below the next lower whole Level instead of above it. This move up could be to satisfy new short orders of SM, or it could be a stop hunt on SM short orders the MMs have been filling above the lower whole Level since the AS opened. And, I could be totally wrong, too. No hard TP, SL at this time.
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  • #708
  • Edited 9:16am Jun 3, 2015 8:54am | Edited 9:16am
EURUSD

This is a very awkward form of the pattern indicated, but it still might pan out because God knows the MMs are bustin' their guts manipulating this pair right now. Anyway, such a pattern tends to break downwards.
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Edit: Is this "break" up a true bull run break, or is it a head fake to above the half Level by the MMs, to stop out shorts and use that liquidity to fill their own shorts orders? The range today is already about 150% normal.
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  • #709
  • Jun 3, 2015 9:09am Jun 3, 2015 9:09am
What have I been doing so far?

- I would look for congestion areas aka sideways trend, aka consolidation, aka accumulation/distribution, what have you. I decided to call those areas position building areas. I would call them like that because I know MMs build their positions there, I just don't know are they bulls or bears. They, the position building areas, usually start at the end of NY session and last through Asian session until London opens. This is the part of the day with low activity, which enables MMs easier manipulation.

- I would look for high volume activity. High volume activity determines where MMs are building their position. If I see high volume activity at the top of the position building area, I would draw a conclusion that the MMs are building short positions/ if I see higher volume activity at the bottom of the position building area, I would draw a conclusion that the MMs are building long positions.

- I would look for whole (00) and half (50) levels. If I see higher volume activity during position building at the top of the range and above whole or half number, I would draw a conclusion that the MMs are bears. If I see higher volume activity during position building at the bottom of the range and below whole or half number, I would draw a conclusion that the MMs are bulls. MMs like to build their positions above/below whole and half number.

- I would look for a breakthrough. A breakthrough would be a high volume wide spread candle, red or green. It usually happens at the open of the London session. I look at M15 tf, but this high volume activity is visible on all time frames lower than H1, sometimes it is visible on H1, too, at roughly the same time. If in my previous steps I have reached a conclusion that the MMs are bears, I would look for a red candle. If in my previous steps I have reached a conclusion that the MMs are bulls, I would look for a green candle.

- I would look for the previous position building area. I find this important because these areas are good for taking profits, or for adding to a position, depending on price, volume and S/R reaction to a position building area. To conclude weather I should add to a position or take profit, I take the same steps I take when I look for an opening a position.

- I would look for clarity. All of the above steps must be perfectly clear. If they are not, I do not take a position. I don't force a trade. There are many pairs and many opportunities, missing a trade is a capital preserving move, not a tragedy. Trading itself is difficult enough without my forced bias adding to it.

Marijan
  • #710
  • Jun 3, 2015 9:20am Jun 3, 2015 9:20am
Market Comment

My take is that the MMs are pushing everything higher ahead of the Friday cavalcade of USD high impact releases. The question becomes, are they "building in 'appropriate' price" ahead of time so not much will happen later, or are they front running prices higher to stop out shorts before their planned WHACK JOB on the market? I tend to believe it is the latter, because when in hell did the MMs ever care that prices were 'appropriate'?

tah
  • #711
  • Jun 3, 2015 9:27am Jun 3, 2015 9:27am
Quoting traderathome
Market Comment My take is that the MMs are pushing everything higher ahead of the Friday cavalcade of USD high impact releases. The question becomes, are they "building in 'appropriate' price" ahead of time so not much will happen later, or are they front running prices higher to stop out shorts before their planned WHACK JOB on the market? I tend to believe it is the latter, because when in hell did the MMs ever care that prices were 'appropriate'? tah
I agree, since today is not so much volume there for such extreme moves...

GBPUSD Comment:
What is this volume marked with an arrow?! MMs uncovered IMO. Nothing fits together.
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PVSRA
  • #712
  • Jun 3, 2015 9:28am Jun 3, 2015 9:28am
Quoting marijan993
What have I been doing so far? - I would look for congestion areas aka sideways trend, aka consolidation, aka accumulation/distribution, what have you. I decided to call those areas position building areas. I would call them like that because I know MMs build their positions there, I just don't know are they bulls or bears. They, the position building areas, usually start at the end of NY session and last through Asian session until London opens. This is the part of the day with low activity, which enables MMs easier manipulation. - I would look...
Pocketbook Guide to PVSRA!

marijan993,

INCREDIBLE, INCREDIBLE, INCREDIBLE........just what the doctor ordered and what was needed!

If anyone has tasted PVSRA but cannot quite describe the flavor, then partake of this morsel generously contributed by marijan993.

Thank You marijan993,
tah
  • #713
  • Jun 3, 2015 9:48am Jun 3, 2015 9:48am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} I agree, since today is not so much volume there for such extreme moves... GBPUSD Comment: What is this volume marked with an arrow?! MMs uncovered IMO. Nothing fits together. {image}
Market Comment

Yes, nothing fits. Nothing except that the MMs are having a field day manipulating prices upwards on practically everything,.....xxxUSD pairs, JPY pairs,.....makes no difference, the MMs are hiking prices. However, if we look at USDJPY and USDCAD, we get the opposite viewpoint. These were hiked....true.....but they were immediately whacked back down, too.

Nothing fits but that the MMs are demonstrating their absolute control of prices, regardless of where SM and DM have placed orders, controlling them to suit their designs for profits come the Friday cavalcade of USD releases. It could be a Mad House Event, with further demonstrations by the MMs of their absolute authority over prices and further demonstrations of their total greed and decadence as they steal with more stop hunts, left and right.

It is not a pretty picture. There is one good thing about it, though. This day thru the end of the week is an excellent time for all those indicator-dependent-would-be-traders to test out all those indicators they have on their collage charts!

tah
  • #714
  • Jun 3, 2015 10:29am Jun 3, 2015 10:29am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Market Comment Yes, nothing fits. Nothing except that the MMs are having a field day manipulating prices upwards on practically everything,.....xxxUSD pairs, JPY pairs,.....makes no difference, the MMs are hiking prices. However, if we look at USDJPY and USDCAD, we get the opposite viewpoint. These were hiked....true.....but they were immediately whacked back down, too. Nothing fits but that the MMs are demonstrating their absolute control of prices, regardless of where SM and DM have placed orders, controlling them to suit their designs...
Great thread and intriguing method. I have a question if you'll be kind enough to answer. If the MM are hiking prices on xxxUSD, is it a given that at NFP time, they'll reverse even if its' a bad number?
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #715
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:02am Jun 3, 2015 11:02am
Quoting taru
{quote} Great thread and intriguing method. I have a question if you'll be kind enough to answer. If the MM are hiking prices on xxxUSD, is it a given that at NFP time, they'll reverse even if its' a bad number?
taru,

Before you call this a "Great thread and intriguing method" and then ask such a question, I suggest you actually read (or re-read) the contents herein, because the Prime Directive of this market is "WE CANNOT KNOW HOW THE MMs WILL MOVE PRICE." Did you even bother to read Post #1? From Post #1:

Price - Some people say "Price Action is King". I say, we cannot know how the MMs (Market Makers) will move price next, period.
And therefore, it makes sense that what we need to do is Cautiously Ride the Coattails of the Crooks Operating this Market!

Yes, this is a great thread. And if you find the method intriguing, great, because PVSRA works. But, it is a skill that requires understanding, commitment, and a lot of work to develop.

PVSRA and Patience,
tah
  • #716
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:08am Jun 3, 2015 11:08am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} market comment yes, nothing fits. Nothing except that the mms are having a field day manipulating prices upwards on practically everything,.....xxxusd pairs, jpy pairs,.....makes no difference, the mms are hiking prices. However, if we look at usdjpy and usdcad, we get the opposite viewpoint. These were hiked....true.....but they were immediately whacked back down, too. Nothing fits but that the mms are demonstrating their absolute control of prices, regardless of where sm and dm have placed orders, controlling them to suit their designs...
jajajaaj absolutely right, i am glad that i learned this in early days that way on non farm employment change it better not to trade or switch from real to demo, its a crazy week
FREEDOM IS NOT FREE
  • #717
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:08am Jun 3, 2015 11:08am
first of all many thanks to TAH & co, for the new template and thread . i like it a lot.
i want to ask question, how to make the quarter level line only displays for current session only. i just can't find it in setting. thanks in advance
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  • #718
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:14am Jun 3, 2015 11:14am
Quoting serikaya
first of all many thanks to TAH & co, for the new template and thread . i like it a lot. i want to ask question, how to make the quarter level line only displays for current session only. i just can't find it in setting. thanks in advance {image}
All the Levels lines are displayed with the same selectable configuration, so you cannot do what you are intending. I could add that feature for the next upgrade, and will think on it some. It was deemed virtually unused and deleted in the 2012 to 2013 upgrade of the Access Panel predecessor. -tah
  • #719
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:23am Jun 3, 2015 11:23am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} All the Levels lines are displayed with the same selectable configuration, so you cannot do what you are intending. I could add that feature for the next upgrade, and will think on it some. It was deemed virtually unused and deleted in the 2012 to 2013 upgrade of the Access Panel predecessor. -tah
ok TAH, GBU.
  • #720
  • Jun 3, 2015 11:54am Jun 3, 2015 11:54am
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} GOLD short trades closed for gain +35.8 pips total {image}
GOLD short trade closed for gain +64.8 pips..
Again- and again, PVSRA works.
Thank you so mauch TAH, really thanks for the great knowledge of PVSRA and great template too..
MJ
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
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