EUR/AUD

Very good link and info .

Thought I'd post here a failed limit order on EUR/AUD. Price came within 22pips of hitting it, but reversed before it did.
This happens often with my style of trading, so nothing special.

It might still com up to hit it next week.

I expect this pair to drop, especially since it has been pretending to respect the trendline. I say 'pretending' because it has not touched it in any of the past few hours' approaches. This and the fact that it has not reached a higher high indicate to me that it will break the TL and continue south.

Ah, so many missed pips
I had a long at 1.4061 but it was stopped at 1.42072 because of the news that made the pair fluctuate like crazy before shooting up and look now, well above my TP of 1.42000. Goddammit!
Just now my other long was triggered at 1.42100. [email protected].

Long waited advance is actually moving.

been away few weeks ,
pretty interesting regarding this tl now ,tl now respected all ways ,
after break consolidation pattern 3 line strike ,consolidation off support ,tl gone without doubt
in a nut shell its very risky to move a tl without further confirmation ,

Watching this pair in case it behaves like the GBP/AUD recently

Probably catch retracement on 4H chart but here the Dailys to show what I mean

Other than that, they are a bit of a mess with no obvious support / resistance and lack of trend

Amazing charting, Skyhok. My hat is off to you. Very precient.

Yes, there's so much to know about trading - and I'm still learning.

This pair offers a good R/R opportunity right now for a trend continuation. Can buy in numerous ways, . I just bought the break of the high of the previous 1h bar with a SL below its lows. As a trend continuation play, this offers very good R/R. Also, the pair has broken through a minor bearish trendline and has so far only moved 67% of its average monthly range in the way I calculate it, which suggests it can move by another 200-300 pips before the month closes and it would still be just an average move. Since the momentum is recently up, such a move is likely to take place now-ish and if it does, I want to be in.

Got news for you, today is the end of the month and it has already made its Weekly Average Range according to my indicator; however it has not made ADR which says it can reach to 1.442 today, so 200 to 300?

No, I think you are dreaming, have a good weekend.

we'll see. My trades are in profit atm and the price is moving up

Have thought about the sloping TL.

On daily chart, it's more like a connecting line of the x wave in the middle of the complex correction b, not as important.
While correction b terminated at the bottom and now broken out on an upward 5 wave impulse wave c, there's still plenty of upside potential.

First TP has been hit for a nice 2/1 Risk-reward. Remaining position now on B/E.

Post a chart, I thought you were going for 300 but it hasn't even made 100 today yet

????

sorry, is this clearer? I took the trade based off this 30min chart, which is the lowest TF I will personally trade on. But there were bullish setups on the1H timeframe as well.

My entry was the pink line, in the candle AFTER the one I enclosed in the red box. I entered on a buy-stop loss order at the break of the high of this candle.
It was a long entry because: the trend on this timeframe is clearly up, we had a pullback of that uptrend and the price was looking to break above the EMA and resume its trend, and like you said, the trading day was still ahead of us and we had at least the average trading range to fill.

SL was initially 2pips below the low of the candle that preceded my entry candle and initial 1st TP was 2x those pips. When my entry candle closed, SL was moved to below its low, i.e. the thinner line which is second from the bottom, and 1st TP was now 2x the new risk. The market hit my 1st TP , which is the upper horizontal line. At that stage, the remaining position is set to Break-Even, i.e. the pink line. I am letting this run because

1) on the higher timeframes we broke above a bearish trendine , so we have a potential bull breakout

2) like you said, this is the last trading session of the month and at the point I entered the trade, the current month's range was only 67% of the average range, which meant we had a possible 100+ pips up just today, to hit the average. I use 24 months for calculation of the average trading range. I don't believe there is a magic number here for average range calculation, but going back 20 or so bar is what I have found works best for me.

3) with SL at break-even, this is now risk-free

4) my bias for the next few weeks on this pair is bullish and since the average weekly range is above 250pips, if I am lucky, the current momentum may carry price this many pips higher early next week. In strong trends, ranges tend to expand, so an even higher range is possible. I was not looking for all 300pips TODAY, but I thought 100+ pips today from the entry price was quite probable. So far we had 76.

I hope the chart helps. I am not exactly a painter!
I don't usually have the time to post charts but I will at times post a trade as I enter it if I see a decent setup, like I did on here earlier.

nice dive, to test the London open and then bounced right back up. Will it continue up? I sure hope so.

So far, we the current month;s range has been only 467 pips. The average monthly range of the past 24 months has been 661 pips, almost 200 pips more.

Last month's range was even larger, 771 pips, i.e. just over 300 pips larger than the current month's.

Market still only crawling instead of running, but at least it's crawling in my direction. An update to the trade and the chart.

My SL at B./E survived by just 1.5 pip (!). That spike down, just before we enter the last hour of this month's London session, was a failed attempt by bears to retest the London open. The moment the next hour began, the market reversed, resulting in a setup I love: the trap! Those who sold at the bottom of that spike down , thinking the market was about to collapse, found themselves trapped. The market is now crawling up and is likely to take out any stops they have placed above the highs of the trap.

Took a short here at 1.4358. Hope I don't get stomped.

I think your short is OK. I was stopped out of the rest of my trade overnight, at B/E. There has been poor follow-through of the bull breakout of last week and a weak range, which suggests that the market is not ready to breakout further long yet, on the higher timeframes. Which would mean the range is still in play, in which case this is the place to short, at the top of the range. I took a short at 1.43, on the break of the low of the last large 4h bearish candle . 2x risk for the 2st half of the trade.