PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

Many thanks TAH, and all the contributors who have taken the times, efforts, and thoughts to builded this system template and Indys. Infinite respect for all of you.
Best Regards,
MJ

Just to remind us, for the all new comers and all my family on this new home:
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Exercise for 3 accident that might happened (by Gupito1508)

Yes, I provoke again. Many of us always taught about how to position corectly through classic and scout. Many other system taught their way to open position too. But no one teach how to accepting the loss. I give you one blow, Trading is a Looser game. Yes it is, no matter how big your capital, how experienced you with the market, you still on a looser side. Your percentage is 40/50. Compared into the Robber bank, market maker, you're deep down below "under capitalized". The Image of this word can be ilustrated by "you're playing chess against Gary Kasparov". All you can do is just forcing a draw, hopefuly steal one winning. The less is, made the "big Gary" frustrate even he's win. So, the rule is, Those who loss small and got the best loser is the long term winner.

It means that, your position is a looser until it proven correct. Will you wait the market prove that your position is rubbish by hit your SL? I never did it. I never wait. I always being asked, where you put your SL? I always asked with similar answer, "My finger is my SL". It means, I did fold quickly if it not moving into certain time horizon. Why? Because I knew, it's a looser game. It will bring me into a 50/50 result. So then, How to steal?

When market proved that your position is good, let it be bigger than your loss. It means, stacking without adding bigger risk exposure (look above rule), or hold it a little longer. It will brings us into 52/50.

But then, as always, your position is looser until it proven wrong, so, every position will always face 3 accident that might be happened.

In your first situation as you take a trade, there is a time when it is just as if you took off from an airport and don't have a
comfortable altitude. This is the time when the trade has not really been proved to be a correct position yet. At this time an unexpected event can have its worst result in your trading. You have to take what you can get for a landing spot due to the lack of altitude.

The second situation is when a trade becomes a proven correct position. It is similar to being at a higher altitude in an aircraft. If an unexpected event takes place, you have a more comfortable choice and can make a better decision due to the extra lead, which is also similar to picking out a better landing spot. In this situation you are in control of keeping the trade from being a total disaster. You land in a clearing.

The third situation for a trader that parallels these three aircraft accidents is that you are on your way with comfortable altitude and are on autopilot. There are no problems with your position. All of a sudden your trade is taken out of your control. Several events can cause this . . . your phone line goes dead . . . you get delayed on your transportation and can't get communications to your broker . . . your quote machine goes dead . . . a big report comes out and the market locks limit before you can even get an order into the platforms.

Accept it, and learn it, how to survived through it. How? The word E-X-E-C-U-T-I-O-N is the key. Face it, and I hope all of you survived.
Happy Sunday,
-GP-
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Example of how to accepting losses...?(By Gupito1508)
The order executed via limit order on friday (NFP release). Yet the execution is poorly timed... But, I know I have the altitude needed to landed safely (equity to hold the position - and have information about certain Price Manipulation on saturday by robber bank). On monday, I hold a little, let the loss reduced, and close quickly at BEP (minus commision). By this way, I landed the plane safely. (Pic#1)

Regards,
-GP-
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How to Face All Your Trades: Execution is the Key! (By TAH)


If I understand Gupito1508 correctly, the word "Execution" refers to capitalization, discipline and decision. In other words, do you have enough money in your account and do you size your trades properly to be able to handle the various "accidents" that can befall your trade if the trade is valid, and do you have the discipline to wait for proper setups, and do you have what it takes to accept when the trade is no longer valid and get out of it, which due to adequate capitalization and sensible trade sizing causes not much suffering?

To summarize, Gupito1508 is using the analogy of an airplane taking off (your trade entry) and the three accidents that can happen during flight: soon after takeoff with little altitude, somewhat later with a bit more altitude, and finally when there is great altitude, as meaning the Robber Banks might at any time - even at all three times - cause an "accident" to the flight of your trade,....stop hunts which would later be seen as confirmation of the trade, but stopping you out due to under capitalization/over-sized trades/ tight SL, or outright reversals eating up your account if you don't exit the trade!

The crux of the matter, therefore, has three aspects: 1) capitalization, or trade size vs account size, and 2) discipline, or being able to be patient to await proper setups, and 3) decision, or being accept that the trade is going too badly to use more capital to buy more time to see if the trade will stop going badly!

So, as Gupito1508 says, the key is "Execution". We need to trade light relative to our account size. We need to be disciplined to await proper setups. We need to be able to make the decision to close the trade - maybe take the time to pick a "best" crash landing site because we are capitalized enough to be able to do so - when current PA has turned against us and it no longer is sensible to buy a lot more time to see if things will change. In other words, we need to be able to keep from freezing up and forever holding onto in prayer a now obviously bad trade!

Of course, the problem with trying to set ground rules while on the ground, for how things will be managed when in flight, is tenuous at best. Once in flight, the things that can happen - stop hunts and reversals - and the changing landscape as they can happen, make what sounded like sensible and straight forward rules turn out to be opportunities to panic, freeze up, or second guess all of them. And so this too is part of the true crux to trading; to be able to keep your head on straight when everything is going wrong.

Gupito1508, I do hope I have summarized correctly and effectively. If I am wrong about, or off the mark on, or have omitted anything you intended, or if I have added something unintended by you, then please correct me with another post that summarizes. And thank you for your ongoing contributions. This one of yours strikes to the very heart of successful trading , and deserves in its final form to be crystal clear for all Sonicers.

Sincerely,
-tah

Are you suggesting, that in case of huge bullish gap you would get your SL order filled at YOUR level? I don't think so ))

Yes, I do hope so. Although I'm sure the broker spreads will be very instrumental in the opening of the market in this new week - new month. That was my best thing which i could do to protect my capital on that shorts. But if I'm not lucky, maybe I'll lose some pips on those trade. And i always ready for that.
MJ

The Facts of Life


The single most important "Fact of Life" in trading is that we cannot know how the MMs will move price next. Period!

We have talked about 1-2-3 setups, airplanes and all manner of things, but in the final analysis the single problem facing all traders is that we cannot know how the MMs will move price next. Period!

So, no matter what "setup" a trader uses, no matter how many indicators generously supplied by the broker the trader has on the chart, no matter what is being said about news coming, arrived or just past, no matter what,......how in hell are we going to be successful in our attempts with each trade to take profit from this market if we cannot know how the MMs will move price next?

Let me reinforce this. WE CANNOT KNOW HOW THE MMs WILL MOVE PRICE NEXT! Why? While we look to place our trade in response to what we see on the chart, the MMs are looking to move price in response to what they see on the price queue! We can be totally out of sync with what the MMs are about to do! From indicators to prayers, nothing can keep this situation from arising and nothing can warn us that it is impending. Okay? Have I sufficiently reinforced this? I hope so, because this is how the market works, folks. Interlinked Robber Bank MMs run this market for profit, some of which they obtain thru commissions, but some of which they obtain thru price manipulations that enable them to steal other people's money! The MMs control price and they are Market Manipulators and Thieves. Got it?

Well then, how can we trade successfully?

First of all, fully understand and accept the contradiction in trading. The trader trades out of anticipation of direction and distance. At the same time, the trader fully accepts that the MMs might decide differently. It is as simple as that. Is this important? Yes, it is. Many traders upgrade their anticipation to a total belief that drowns out all opposition. You can see the danger in doing that, yes? It obscures what should also be fully anticipated, and when it happens the trader either has no plan to handle it, or is slow to do so.


Here is how we trade

1. Continuous PVSRA and patiently await overall PA to agree with PVSRA.
2. Patiently await some harbinger of a PA trade move, such as rising volume just before and/or as price moves away from consolidation or key SR.
3. Make breakout entry, or patiently await a pullback, or both.
4. Trade light relative to account size.
5. Anticipate a stop hunt with a hard or mental SL, set maybe on the other side of that consolidation, so you are out of the trade if it happens.
6. If the stop hunt comes, and you are out, assess for new entry after price rebounds (start over).
7. If it looks like a reversal, assess for trade in reversal direction (start over), but only if your ongoing PVSRA lends credence to that direction!
8. If you desire multiple entry trades, only add to a trade that is green (in profit). Never ever add to a trade that is red (at a loss).
9. And never, ever trade "apparent" tops and bottoms!


You are all free to trade however you wish. That is always the case. But, successful traders are traders with a plan, one that they are committed to and one that therefore can minimize their losses and save their butts when the MMs go on a thieving frenzy, which they can do at any time they want, anytime the price queue of orders shows them that they can be most profitable by doing so.

As you can see. We cannot know how the MMs will move price. Trading is a business of "probability" and inherently means losing trades are a part of this business. Overall, trading is much like playing chess with the MMs. PVSRA helps us bring better focus to the recent history of PA. The better our PVSRA is the better we can then anticipate possible moves our opponent might be inclined to make in order to steal money from traders. And this greatly helps us to very carefully pick what "opportunities" to trade, lest we fall into picking to trade a "trap" simply because "things look good" and we are impatient.

Remember, PVSRA is the key here. It helps us to better understand what the MMs have been doing. That, in turn, helps us to anticipate what the MMs might eventually plan on doing. For example, if SM places buy orders below a whole number and we understand that is what must be the case since price dropped below the whole number and consolidated there.....and later the price dropped further, more briefly as the MMs ran a stop hunt on SM.....would we not anticipate a move higher is coming at some point? And if price moves up another 50 pips and consolidates and then we see harbingers of another breakout, would we not anticipate another move higher because the first 50 pips up is peanuts to SM, that SM has placed it's sell orders much higher and that eventually the MMs will get the price up there to work those orders for commissions? Yes, we would. And we should also anticipate the thieving MMs will run another stop hunt, too. So, trade the break up, or wait past that for whatever happens.....stop hunt.... yes/no?.....and then look for another pullback to enter. Increasing skill with PVSRA helps to develop our ability to have anticipations of a master chess player instead of a wanton child. Sometimes we will over think, and miss a move. But, that too is just part of the probability factor of trading. Minimizing losses and missing some trades are small prices to pay for being a more successful trader.

Hope This Helps.


PVSRA and Patience,
tah

Thats all "The main principles that we should do - to surf the market filled with hungry sharks"

MJ and Tah,

I noticed you are both loaded with heavy weapon for the new week..

I share MJs opinion,

demonstration of caring beyond any words..



PURE PLEASURE!!!
(laptop version, sample template without any changes- just GREAT!)

TAH thank you for the thread and new template. A question, don't we have lot pip value to display in access panel this time? I think last time we have to enable it through access panel but I couldn't find it this time.

Tah - thank you

EURUSD Comment:
There comes a nice test for our patience next week. The direction is not at all clear, very nice to practice to wait until clear clues of the direction..

To TAH and other contributors, thank you very much for the tools and education provided.

PVSRA is not technical analysis nor fundamental analysis. It is so much more. It is psycho-social analysis. It essentially studies humans, the moves they make (social aspect) based on their emotions, namely greed (psychological aspect). See now why your MACD and RSI fail? They try to anticipate what will do next not one, but thousands of the most erratic creatures on this planet...

BIG Thanks TAH and others - my eyes now open wider and clearly about Fmarket.

Technicals VS Fundamentals Comment

Here is my wiew:
Trading is a game of probabilities. I would not completly rule out the Fundamentals. I would use it 2-5% sometimes for thinking how MMs could play the Tecnicals out considering the Fundamentals. It is maybe a next level thing, not for the newcomers that NEED to keep their trading simple.
The main reason- Fundamentals are lagging and can change any time- especialy around high impact news- that is making the Fundamentals too much confusing. Another danger- they create a bias- which is a big big mistake in trading. The second danger is timing- you cannot know when MMs Will move the price.
Based on this dissadvantages- I ruled the Fundamentals completly out when I started seriously learning PVSRA.
But- there is one way I am thinking of using it now-
I try to think what would be the best move for the MMs based on Fundamentals (herd opinion or bias) combined with the PVSRA clues:
a.) to give the herd (DM) a little bit of food that they stay in the game (and profit on them later) or
b.) to kill them (sacrifice for their own profit).

Think of it this way: sometimes Fundamentals must be right, otherwise there will be noone left in the game to kill later.
We could say Fundamentals and News represent ideal excuse for the MMs to move the price just how they want it (and mask their pure manipulation)- becouse you can interpret the Fundamentals in many different ways.

EDIT:
MMs are masters in using Fundamentals to take their own profits- they "surprise" DM on the wrong foot, sucking them in the wrong trade direction just before they start their own run for profits.
Nice example is EURUSD on last friday just before LO:

"So- Fundamentals are Short- why not suck in some DM wrong side shorts?"

"Why not suck in some more and make previous shorters feel good about their wrong side trade?"

The situation today:

There was another "sucker" even earlier- in the AS, that I didn't put in the circle on friday.

EDIT 2:
The same could be with patterns, this is the simplest explanation why sometimes they work and sometimes they dont. We have the same "a.)" and "b.)" here.
And on different TFs, becouse there are different types of traders- lower and higher TF traders.

Different opinions welcome!

NZDUSD Long Trade Open:

Well, after slaving over the template/indy files, I guess I just lost my friggin' mind! An AS trade? In just the first minutes of a new week? Come on! I need to be committed to a mental institution! I just violated my plan to not trade an "apparent" bottom area.

On the other hand, the only chart I could dig up that showed prices as low as they reached down to on Friday, and just now, too, is the MONTH chart! It is not that the lows are so low on the MONTH chart, just that it has been quite awhile since prices were in this area. And based on PA history, this is a prime area for either a bounce or reversal. Still, it is trading an apparent bottom area,.....not per the plan.

So, let us see what happens. Meanwhile, while I scratch my itchy trigger finger, I am and having fun watching the MMs jack the spread all over hell and creation, from a few pips to over a dozen!

AUDUSD

This might be worth keeping an eye on. AUD high impact in about 4 hours. Late Friday the MMs took price back to Thursday low area. AS started off taking price back to Thursday low area. MMs might also whack it again in conjunction with the release, and then start it up. Can't know, but these lows are below half number, and with good consolidation there on Thursday.

-tah

AUDUSD Long Trade Open:

I have taken a position in the consolidation area below the half number. I cannot know how the MMs will move price, but from the study of PA my guess is the times price has been in this area of late it has been because SM placed long orders there and the MMs took the price there to fill the orders. And this leads me to suspect the MMs might also take the price even lower as a stop hunt on the SM long orders they filled. Can't know that either, but in the case of this trade, should price get seriously whacked, I plan to add to the trade,.....in violation of my own rules. Meanwhile, I am going to sit on this position and wait for the AUD high impact release.

USDCAD Short Trade Closed.
The plan did his job, stay green with The Triple "P" ---> PVSRA, Patient, and Plan
MJ

GBPUSD Short trade opened,
Its just for dance style.

AUDJPY

Also watching PA on this. AUD release soon to come and M15 has bullish waves. Looking to see if MMs whack price back below the whole number a bit more.....