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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #1,421
  • May 29, 2015 12:37pm May 29, 2015 12:37pm
GDP prelim q/q figures were good for the dollar....it gained in strength. Yet the ballerina WTI Oil did the opposite of what was expected and appreciated in price. It is hard to trade when a commodity does not follow economic principles. It is obvious that the price of this commodity is manipulated. It makes trading a whole lot harder.
  • #1,422
  • May 29, 2015 12:50pm May 29, 2015 12:50pm
Quoting Steve J
GDP prelim q/q figures were good for the dollar....it gained in strength. Yet the ballerina WTI Oil did the opposite of what was expected and appreciated in price. It is hard to trade when a commodity does not follow economic principles. It is obvious that the price of this commodity is manipulated. It makes trading a whole lot harder.
Last day of trading for the week and also month.
Expect some weirdness.
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #1,423
  • May 29, 2015 12:50pm May 29, 2015 12:50pm
its not manipulated.
oil is spiking bc funds are betting on it going up due to ISIS attacks and invasion of areas with key oil refineries in iraq.
production in canada is being hit too with wild fires....

both are creating a spike today going into OPEC meeting next week.
I went Sell at 59.60 but I entered to soon.
I think longer term still we see 50/brl after this ISIS and canadian news dies down next week
  • #1,424
  • May 29, 2015 12:54pm May 29, 2015 12:54pm
Quoting Steve J
GDP prelim q/q figures were good for the dollar....it gained in strength. Yet the ballerina WTI Oil did the opposite of what was expected and appreciated in price. It is hard to trade when a commodity does not follow economic principles. It is obvious that the price of this commodity is manipulated. It makes trading a whole lot harder.
Going from .2% to -.07 is not necessarily positive
Yellen can sing as much as she wants about recovery and IR hike but we may end up worst or as bad as 1st Q which would push IR to 2016
Cheap OIL combine with strong dollar is not a good recipe for recovery. Google steel and oil industry jobs lost to strong dollar and you'll see that it hurts US exporters bad.
Strong dollar makes sense when everyone else is on level field.Not when you are the only currency that nobody can afford to do business with.
This is the primary reason why EU NZ YEN Aussie try devaluating their currencies so they can stay competitive.
Feds are in my opinion out of touch by constantly doing verbal interventions by dropping IR hike.We are not there so flaming does not help.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,425
  • May 29, 2015 1:21pm May 29, 2015 1:21pm
lets go $80!
  • #1,426
  • May 29, 2015 1:57pm May 29, 2015 1:57pm
80? lmfao

dude, todays spike is short term

OPEC MEETING NEXT WEEK BROTHA!
  • #1,427
  • May 29, 2015 7:09pm May 29, 2015 7:09pm
[quoti=yeniful;8292634]its not manipulated. oil is spiking bc funds are betting on it going up due to ISIS attacks and invasion of areas with key oil refineries in iraq. production in canada is being hit too with wild fires.... both are creating a spike today going into OPEC meeting next week. I went Sell at 59.60 but I entered to soon. I think longer term still we see 50/brl after this ISIS and canadian news dies down next week[/quote]

WTI Oil is well known for doing the opposite of what economic data suggests. It has gone contrary time without number. If you noticed; today's dance was performed after the USA GDP result. In other words it was a direct reaction to the fundamental data. The market movers made sure it was opposite to what was expected.Sadly, there is always manipulation when vast sums of money are involved. Three hundred peeping pips moving in the wrong direction is a sight I don't wanna see!
  • #1,428
  • May 29, 2015 7:31pm May 29, 2015 7:31pm
Please WTI trades in dollars and cents not pips.

And

Manipulation = the dog ate my homework equivalent in trading.
  • #1,429
  • May 29, 2015 10:43pm May 29, 2015 10:43pm
Yeah!....just keep on oiling the mean machine until the day it runs you over!
  • #1,430
  • May 31, 2015 2:29am May 31, 2015 2:29am
A price goes up because demand overcomes supply.
Around 57 area there s important demand.
This demand could definetly breake the supply around 61.
If this happens , next supply is higher.
If not, back to 57 or even lower.

It s that simple.

Fundamentals? Production is slowing down a bit = less supply.

Doesn t mean we go back straight to 80 or 40.
Means a possibble correction in yearly price fluctation to around 65-68 even 69 where testing side effects.

I m not an economist nor a professor
Just sharing what really counts to me and my trade decisions
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #1,431
  • May 31, 2015 6:54am May 31, 2015 6:54am
The price spike of Friday should be met with caution. Prices went up because

1) the media/news went on and on about strategic oil fields in Iraq under attack
2) a number of oil rigs in the US were reduced
3) investions and traders have twitchy fingers at the moment and are looking for any reason to pump prices up instead of bringing them down.

Fact is though that global oil production output is at a very high. Iraqi oil production is at its highest since 1989. Russian output is highest since the fall of the soviet union. USA has lifted a 40 year oil export ban and now exports oil. Venezuela and Saudi dont want to reduce oil production either.

It is also expected that the OPEC in its meeting on the 5th of June ​will keep oil production unchanged.

I see prices going down after the OPEC meeting.
  • #1,432
  • May 31, 2015 10:51am May 31, 2015 10:51am
End of month position squaring. Nothing more, nothing less.

Production has not slowed. Unproductive rigs are taken off line. But can be put back on line quickly the more price rises.

Also Iraq is pumping pretty good amounts these days.

Tanker rates are rising ... because a lot of supply is being "stored" off shore waiting for the right price.

Although demand, especially in the U.S., has picked up there is still more supply than the market can handle.
  • #1,433
  • May 31, 2015 2:43pm May 31, 2015 2:43pm
How sad am I...? I have this meeting in my calendar for at least a month

Quoting yeniful
its not manipulated. oil is spiking bc funds are betting on it going up due to ISIS attacks and invasion of areas with key oil refineries in iraq. production in canada is being hit too with wild fires.... both are creating a spike today going into OPEC meeting next week. I went Sell at 59.60 but I entered to soon. I think longer term still we see 50/brl after this ISIS and canadian news dies down next week
After this meeting there will be movements, ...probably mine.

I can see them doing nothing. The worst that can happen, for me, is that they agree some planned reduction in output. That will fire all oil related attributes through the roof, including all the E&P stocks that I haven't bought yet .....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #1,434
  • May 31, 2015 5:39pm May 31, 2015 5:39pm
Saudis are cutting for nobody. Everything they have done recently has shown that.

And OPEC goes as the Saudis go.
  • #1,435
  • May 31, 2015 11:27pm May 31, 2015 11:27pm
anyone short?
  • #1,436
  • Jun 1, 2015 2:08am Jun 1, 2015 2:08am
Quoting mk5
anyone short?
??it may reach 59.00 .. agree with me
  • #1,437
  • Jun 1, 2015 2:43am Jun 1, 2015 2:43am
Quoting forexer11
{quote} ??it may reach 59.00 .. agree with me
looking at around 58.70
  • #1,438
  • Jun 1, 2015 8:41am Jun 1, 2015 8:41am
To hell with opec and whatever if dollar is going to be weak anyway. Energy prices are very undervalued on long term considering worldwide population and wealth growth. Scientist and countries are still busting their ass to make alternative energy sources and spend billions on research. Is this because crude is going to $20 as so many believed?
  • #1,439
  • Jun 1, 2015 9:13am Jun 1, 2015 9:13am
Do not under estimate the speed with which new technology could overtake the requirement for oil.
Within months - unlikely.
However 20% of the UK's generating capacity is now wind and solar. That is a big shift in a decade.
If the Chinese took the same view they could probably achieve that performance in a couple of years.

Have you seen how quickly they can build a hotel?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #1,440
  • Jun 1, 2015 9:37am Jun 1, 2015 9:37am
Quoting alayinizAMK
To hell with opec and whatever if dollar is going to be weak anyway. Energy prices are very undervalued on long term considering worldwide population and wealth growth. Scientist and countries are still busting their ass to make alternative energy sources and spend billions on research. Is this because crude is going to $20 as so many believed?
Its not what anyone of us believes. It's what the overall market consensus is at any point in time.

Isn't the price lower than a year ago. What really changed? Supply/Demand? Or was it just the consensus?

Belief is a powerful thing.

And I for one believe price trend sideways for the foreseeable future - a year or two. With tradable moves in between.
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