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PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

  • #341
  • May 28, 2015 11:11am May 28, 2015 11:11am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Are you trying to teach me about patterns or another foreign language?? EURJPY: This is what I ment, but does not look so scary anymore.. {image} Was out of the Office the whole day and laptop screen is much smaller than PC, couldn't see clearly..
EURJPY:
But.. there is also potencial H&S pattern danger, leading right to the Pivot line..
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PVSRA
  • #342
  • May 28, 2015 11:26am May 28, 2015 11:26am
XAUUSD long trade opened.
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #343
  • May 28, 2015 11:52am May 28, 2015 11:52am
Quoting Mauro-J
XAUUSD long trade opened. {image} {image}
XAUUSD

Mauro-J,

A short duration trade? This pattern (yellow) tends to break downwards.....
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  • #344
  • May 28, 2015 12:46pm May 28, 2015 12:46pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} XAUUSD Mauro-J, A short duration trade? This pattern (yellow) tends to break downwards..... {image}
Thanks for ur comment TAH,
I agree, it could be TAH - if we conclude base on the general PA views on Daily chart. If the market would falls and break downward triggered by MMs (today) , it should done on previous high impact mementum. But, today MMs just whack the price break the TL having previously upward movement above 1190.00. pullback the price downward below half level 1185.00 then stop and bounced above the half level (1185.00) and above the TL. And now we can see, the price stuck arround the opening of the previous bar (yesterday bar). The question is : whats going on behind this scheme? For me, its like, that the thief from wallstreet - AS MMs deceive the shorts to stop them out and avoid to closed the shorts in the lower level. Some time, MMs would make some other trap to create more liquities for their own by push the price back to the upward to deceive the others which hold their shorts till they stop out.

Then, lets see the lower TF; on H1 TF we got a clue with the rejecting bar. First huge red bar broke the Support half level 1185.00, the activity was great. Then followed by greater activities from the lows bounced the price upward above the half level . If we use the BRN as a most important SR level area, so this half level should be a very strong support now. The question is, "why MMs support the price after they broke this level? i think they just stop their longs building for a while, it could be they want to add more shorts on higher level to break the strong support, to do this they need a great activities , and to get the power for the great activities they need more hogs for slaughtered. Or, it could be, that the robber just closed their shorts and run their longs for recent time while building their shorts on the higher level.

in this case, i just utilize the MMs scheme as well as i can as my opportunities longs with some "execution" plan. thats what i think..
-MJ
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #345
  • Edited 2:37pm May 28, 2015 2:01pm | Edited 2:37pm
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} Thanks for ur comment TAH, I agree, it could be TAH - if we conclude base on the general PA views on Daily chart. If the market would falls and break downward triggered by MMs (today) , it should done on previous high impact mementum. But, today MMs just whack the price break the TL having previously upward movement above 1190.00. pullback the price downward below half level 1185.00 then stop and bounced above the half level (1185.00) and above the TL. And now we can see, the price stuck arround the opening of the previous bar (yesterday...
Half Full, or Half Empty?

I am going to put this out on the table, so all can acquaint themselves with it, think about it, and comment if they like. This regards the PVSRA premise that bull MMs prefer to build long below key SR and bear MMs prefer to build short above key SR. Okay, now also consider this......

Look at the fall and rise of price on the attached chart. According to the PVSRA premise, we might see this as a possible clue that the MMs are bulls that whacked the price to fill some long orders for SM (which includes themselves, of course). And if this is the case, then it naturally follows that later there will be a move up in price so SM can profit. Now, let's turn the tables......

Suppose the MMs ran the price down because they are bears. What!? Yes, suppose they are bears? How would this make sense, you ask? Well, suppose the MMs, who are always aware of what the price queue looks like, see a good amount in pending long orders below the current price, put there by trading outfits that believe price will rise and are looking to get in at a lower price, i.e., on a retrace before such a move higher. Now, the bear MMs see that as liquidity for getting more of their short orders filled. So, they run the price down the queue to trigger those pending long orders and thereby get short orders filled. True, this is filling of shorts below, not above, current price. But sometimes the price area lower is just fine based on what the bear MMs have planned.

And then the MMs return the price up high again. Why? They do this to entice more longs who will see that maybe price will retrace again, and so they will put more pending long orders down there, hoping for another retrace to fill them. And in this manner, the MMs know they can at anytime they want, drop the price, trigger the pending long orders, and add more short orders to the short positions they are building,.....for SM and themselves.

Okay, that all makes sense, just like it makes sense the other way,....that the MMs might be bulls and ran the price down to trigger pending short orders and pending stop orders on existing longs, and thereby get liquidity to fill SM longs, which includes themselves. So, how can we tell which way it is? The only way I know to do this is by seeing what is the most logical based on preceding PA. That means based on the bigger picture shown by the larger TF charts. And if it is still unclear, we just have to accept that we cannot decipher this for now. And we will have to continue with PVSRA until we start to see clues of one way or the other becoming dominant. Nothing is perfect.

There are certain times when PA is just too ambiguous. We just have to keep on keeping on with PVSRA,.....and be patient, because it is safer to not trade, than it is to make an assumption and put money down on it. Some call it knowing when not to trade. I am not aiming this statement at anyone here, and certainly not at Mauro-J, who has already explained his reasons. I have used his gold trade as an example because the chart is dramatic in what I wanted shown for this discussion, which is to point out that PA can sometimes be interpreted both ways.

We should always try to interpret what we see both ways, and then see if one interpretation fits the larger picture much better than the other. But, if PA is too ambiguous then we need to discard the "clue" and wait for more PA which will eventually become less ambiguous.


PVSRA and Patience,
tah
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  • #346
  • Edited 2:48pm May 28, 2015 2:36pm | Edited 2:48pm
GBPUSD Comment:
Nearing support on H4 and some hidden signs of buying- not so clear yet, but will be very interesting tomorow..
Since it is friday, we might have to wait till next week.. Pushed down to much IMO. Could be some buying began 3 days ago, but pushing down more to reload at better prices. Driving it below the whole level today to stop out Longs opened too soon.
Imagine- 3x before and at LO DM Longs suckers- could it be 4th time tomorow? Like always, we never know- they could do it more..
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What do you guys think?
PVSRA
  • #347
  • Edited 3:45pm May 28, 2015 3:18pm | Edited 3:45pm
Quoting Fisher755
GBPUSD Comment: Nearing support on H4 and some hidden signs of buying- not so clear yet, but will be very interesting tomorow.. Since it is friday, we might have to wait till next week.. Pushed down to much IMO. Could be some buying began 3 days ago, but pushing down more to reload at better prices. Driving it below the whole level today to stop out Longs opened too soon. Imagine- 3x before and at LO DM Longs suckers- could it be 4th time tomorow? Like always, we never know- they could do it more.. {image} {image} What do you guys think?
GBPUSD

It recently seems that every other trading day the whackings take this below yet another whole number. And each time it happens there is notable volume associated with the move below the whole number. So, this is showing PVSRA indications of bulls, but the MMs keep price moving lower. So, how can we tell if there a difference this time?

Looking at the H1 chart I do see a bit more concentrated consolidation this time, but it might not be enough more to be meaningful. Therefore, I remain disinterested in it until I see not only clear PVSRA indications of bulls, but also PA that is in agreement, which at the very least should be a good, bullish 1-2-3 PA wave with a very good pattern of rising volume where it should be during the wave,......something to denote momentum.

Looking at M15, the most recent consolidation area is more dense than previous ones. But outside of it, PA is erratic and without any nicely formed bullish PA waves. With PVSRA indicating bulls, I am not interested in shorting it. With bearish PA, I am not interested in longing it.

-tah
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  • #348
  • May 28, 2015 3:22pm May 28, 2015 3:22pm
Quoting traderathome
EURJPY Long Trade Open: I thought GJ would show bullish momentum first, but EJ is ahead in that department. I enter this while price is still below half level, anticipating momentum rather than actually having it. Could be a mistake. No TP, SL at this time. {image}
EURJPY Long Trade Closed:

Closed for gain of 30.2 pips average.
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  • #349
  • May 28, 2015 3:49pm May 28, 2015 3:49pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Half Full, or Half Empty? I am going to put this out on the table, so all can acquaint themselves with it, think about it, and comment if they like. This regards the PVSRA premise that bull MMs prefer to build long below key SR and bear MMs prefer to build short above key SR. Okay, now also consider this...... Look at the fall and rise of price on the attached chart. According to the PVSRA premise, we might see this as a possible clue that the MMs are bulls that whacked the price to fill some long orders for SM (which includes themselves,...
Thank you so much prof. Your explanation is very useful to build my understanding on "how the market really works". I always like the way you read the market.
"PA can sometimes be interpreted both ways....", absolutely agree with it. And you explained it with dialectical logic. Thats very useful to avoid the mechanical reading.
delight to be your student..
-MJ
"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #350
  • May 28, 2015 4:03pm May 28, 2015 4:03pm
I have a question, and I hope it is deemed pertinent as I do not want to be blocked from this thread. I just want to know if I am reading this right or not.

On the H4 chart of the NZD/USD the PA looks to be bearish in nature, but when switched to the H1 chart the price is moving up steadily. Could this be an indication that the MMs are moving up the price in order to set themselves up for a better short position tomorrow?

And I'm sorry I do not have screen shots for you.
  • #351
  • Edited 6:22pm May 28, 2015 5:43pm | Edited 6:22pm
Quoting iamnutoforex
I have a question, and I hope it is deemed pertinent as I do not want to be blocked from this thread. I just want to know if I am reading this right or not. On the H4 chart of the NZD/USD the PA looks to be bearish in nature, but when switched to the H1 chart the price is moving up steadily. Could this be an indication that the MMs are moving up the price in order to set themselves up for a better short position tomorrow? And I'm sorry I do not have screen shots for you.
There is "How the Market Works", and Here is "How We Work the Market"

NZDUSD

On both the H4 and H1 charts the price is trending down. The current upside move is most likely a retrace in the down trend. And yes, such retraces are manipulated by the MMs for the purpose of reloading shorts because they closed some with profit before they started price up on the retrace. The retrace is essential for maintaining a healthy "balance" between SM and DM. Can you imagine what the market would be like if everybody thought exactly alike, all bulls or all bears?

Having said this, obviously every trend reversal begins with what looks like a retrace, but because the retrace later turns back and fails to achieve greater distance in the trend direction we begin thinking we might be looking at a possible reversal, which at that point might or might not be true. It is usually too soon to tell.

At this time, on this pair, there is no reason to be thinking about a possible reversal, save for PVSRA indications of bulls that might appear, such as the notable volume at the lows below the half number appearing on H1, together with the quick bounce of price from below the half number. But even that PVSRA indication of bulls is not enough to switch from thinking "short" to thinking "long" until PA is itself tested for bullishness. We have a low. Eventually there will be a new current high once PA stops going up. At that point we will have a "range". And the PA test for bullishness or bearishness will come when PA eventually breaks out of that range, one way or the other. And at that point we will have an indication of PA direction. If we have at that point a PA direction that is in accord with the preponderance of recent PVSRA indications, then we will have what we need to consider entering a trade, save for selecting an auspicious level to do so. What we won't know is how far in this direction the price will move, because we never can know how the MMs will move price next.

And that leads us to money management. Gupito style is good! Gupito is a great contributor to the PVSRA body of work. Gupito style means cut off quickly the trade that turns red (not in profit), and reassess for later entering again in same or opposite direction. Only add to a trade if price is moving in the direction of the trade and if the trade is currently green (in profit). Never add to a trade that is currently red (not in profit), even if you perceive the current price is an opportunity to "take advantage". Money management is largely about conditioning yourself to not do what comes naturally,....buy too low/sell too high! Stop and think about that one.

PVSRA and Patience,
tah
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  • #352
  • Edited 6:36pm May 28, 2015 6:16pm | Edited 6:36pm
A new PM received titled "sonic help":

Iv been reading the thread and all the posts and pdf's with this system, i cant wrap my head around it, any chance you can lend a hand on what i should be doing?

My Reply (slightly modified for this post):

I no longer participate on the Sonic R. System thread. I have opened a thread based on PVSRA, which I first introduced more than two years ago. If you are interested, become part of this new thread "PVSRA" which FF has wrongly relegated to the "Commercial Content" section of FF. This new thread is just getting started. Not everything is yet available that folks might desire, but progress is being made. You might make progress there, too.

-tah
  • #353
  • Edited 7:02pm May 28, 2015 6:49pm | Edited 7:02pm
GBPJPY Short Trade Open:

Follow the dots.
1. Move to highs above half number = PVSRA indications of bears.
2. Move back up to highs above next lower whole number = PVSRA indication of bears.
3. Move to lows below lower half number = MMs/bears closed some shorts for profit in lower area of more pending short orders (liquidity).
4. Move back up to highs above 3/4 number = MMs/bears reloading shorts by pushing up price to stop hunt those new shorts, forcing them to close (liquidity).

This was followed by a move down as the current AS opened, which I interpret as the MMs running the price down the price queue to trigger pending long orders so they could have shorts. Price was then brought back up, remains in the area between the upper whole number and the lower half number, and the average of prices is trending down. No TP at this time. While at computer, I monitor for quick cut of trade, Gupito stlye money management, especially since this is the AS which is not the best time for trading.
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  • #354
  • May 28, 2015 7:01pm May 28, 2015 7:01pm
TAH I stand corrected....you have managed to get your forum moved back from the "Dark Side" of Commercial Content to its rightful place in "Trading Systems" for all to freely see and follow.

I guess that the Powers that Be think that you won't be able to inform enough retail traders to make a difference. The challenge has be laid down, and now I say to you keep spreading your insights into the workings of the market good sir.

GREEN pips to you always.
  • #355
  • Edited 8:01pm May 28, 2015 7:23pm | Edited 8:01pm
Dear Gals and Guys,

As you can see, we have been released from jail on our own recognizance. I celebrate this and I thank Twee for it. Here is my PM to Twee:

Dear Twee,

Thank you for your exercise of fairness and impartiality in moving the PVSRA thread out of the "Commercial Content" section of FF. And may God Bless you for this exercise of good character.

I assure you again, I never had, do not have, and do not intend to have any "commercial interests". I am here at FF to improve and to help others improve, and what I do I do freely, without monetary compensation from anyone for anything.

Sincerely,
traderathome


Twee has in the past always demonstrated himself to be a person of good judgement, fairness, impartiality and patience. I know many of you have been upset by recent actions at FF to suspend me for speaking out, and then for penalizing this thread simply because mean spirited "Others" flooded Twee with CRs in hopes of manipulating him to do so. But this is at an end now. And we need to recognize Twee for the person he is, an intelligent person with "goodness" at his core.

It is time for us to move forward. And with luck, I will be adding our template/indy files this weekend to Post 1.

PVSRA and Patience,
tah
  • #356
  • May 28, 2015 7:53pm May 28, 2015 7:53pm
Quoting traderathome
GBPJPY Short Trade Open: Follow the dots. 1. Move to highs above half number = PVSRA indications of bears. 2. Move back up to highs above next lower whole number = PVSRA indication of bears. 3. Move to lows below lower half number = MMs/bears closed some shorts for profit in lower area of more pending short orders (liquidity). 4. Move back up to highs above 3/4 number = MMs/bears reloading shorts by pushing up price to stop hunt those new shorts, forcing them to close (liquidity). This was followed by a move down as the current AS opened, which...
GBPJPY Short Trade Closed:

Closed at potential support of half Level area for gain of 30.4 pips average.
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  • #357
  • May 28, 2015 8:28pm May 28, 2015 8:28pm
AUDUSD Long Trade Open:

PA below the half Level late yesterday is a PVSRA indication of bulls. The early AS spike back down to that area could be the MMs revisiting to accumulate more longs. And genuine buying might be the cause of the further movement back above the AS open. And since the AS HOD (High of Day) the price has continued to reach back towards the half Level while being flat on top, which could be the MMs controlling the highs they allow the price to go to in order to deceive the market into thinking bearish rather than bullish, while the MMs take the bull side of as many bear orders as possible. Time will tell. No TP, SL at this time.
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  • #358
  • May 28, 2015 9:27pm May 28, 2015 9:27pm
Quoting traderathome
AUDUSD Long Trade Open: PA below the half Level late yesterday is a PVSRA indication of bulls. The early AS spike back down to that area could be the MMs revisiting to accumulate more longs. And genuine buying might be the cause of the further movement back above the AS open. And since the AS HOD (High of Day) the price has continued to reach back towards the half Level while being flat on top, which could be the MMs controlling the highs they allow the price to go to in order to deceive the market into thinking bearish rather than bullish, while...
AUDUSD Long Trade Closed:

Closed as price moved up to possible resistance at 3/4 Level, for a gain of 15.1 pips average.
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  • #359
  • May 28, 2015 10:12pm May 28, 2015 10:12pm
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} Thank you so much prof. Your explanation is very useful to build my understanding on "how the market really works". I always like the way you read the market. "PA can sometimes be interpreted both ways....", absolutely agree with it. And you explained it with dialectical logic. Thats very useful to avoid the mechanical reading. delight to be your student.. -MJ
Agree with Mauro-J on all points!!
PVSRA
  • #360
  • May 28, 2015 10:14pm May 28, 2015 10:14pm
Quoting traderathome
Dear Gals and Guys, As you can see, we have been released from jail on our own recognizance. I celebrate this and I thank Twee for it. Here is my PM to Twee: Dear Twee, Thank you for your exercise of fairness and impartiality in moving the PVSRA thread out of the "Commercial Content" section of FF. And may God Bless you for this exercise of good character. I assure you again, I never had, do not have, and do not intend to have any "commercial interests". I am here at FF to improve and to help others improve, and what I do I do freely, without monetary...
WOW!
Trading systems!!!!

I guess it sometimes does pay out to fight for the right thing!!
PVSRA
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