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Let's Trade Options

  • #8,841
  • May 27, 2015 2:54pm May 27, 2015 2:54pm
Quoting The Fool
Like an automaton, benumbed, I sell calls into SPY strength - June5 $217/$220 for $0.48


We should really do Iron Condors on the mofo... skewed to the downside... so, basically we can't get more than 1 down day now, huh?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,842
  • May 27, 2015 2:58pm May 27, 2015 2:58pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} We should really do Iron Condors on the mofo... skewed to the downside... so, basically we can't get more than 1 down day now, huh?
totally. You get on the tweet machine and start tweeting that Greece has been invaded by zombies, the Fed gets caught in a gay orgy with aliens, something, idk, do you even have a tweet thingy?....the shit can't go up forever...

Can it?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,843
  • May 27, 2015 2:58pm May 27, 2015 2:58pm
How about selling a /CL August 45 put for $0.20 ($200)? With 98% POP? It expires on July 16th... Margin req about $1,200...
/CL Aug contract trades for $58 now.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,844
  • May 27, 2015 3:04pm May 27, 2015 3:04pm
Quoting StrayDog
How about selling a /CL August 45 put for $0.20 ($200)? With 98% POP? It expires on July 16th... Margin req about $1,200... /CL Aug contract trades for $58 now.
Careful, Golden Slacks says we headed for wti $45 this fall! Did you see that big red volume at the close for /ES SPY, etc --- omg it was a big bull trap!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,845
  • May 27, 2015 3:05pm May 27, 2015 3:05pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Careful, Golden Slacks says we headed for wti $45 this fall! Did you see that big red volume at the close for /ES SPY, etc --- omg it was a big bull trap!
F....ck go to the shelters, women and children first!!!
It is going DOWN, OMG!!!

#hard_landing
#winter-is-coming
#SHTF

Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,846
  • May 27, 2015 6:02pm May 27, 2015 6:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} hey ZS, Jun calls $215/$218 I'd rather get >$0.60, can happen if SPY cops a little bounce Wednesday...if it gets a good bounce I will look at $2 spreads & up the lots
Did not set up my order for a bounce and got filled at .51 for that 215/218. Need to develop a little patience in that area and set the price for a fill on a bounce, rather than a fill at the end-of-day mid-price ... . Yeesh ... .

My anus hurts from my KOR earnings play; rolling inverted, which I really hate to do ... . Unfortunately, losers really don't manage themselves in this game. May be rolling that for a few months in succession to decrease the loss. We'll see how that goes ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,847
  • Edited 6:20pm May 27, 2015 6:03pm | Edited 6:20pm
tt guys on ic's (IVR > 50% lol, are u fuginkidinme?)

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_...5?locale=en-US
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,848
  • May 27, 2015 6:08pm May 27, 2015 6:08pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} We should really do Iron Condors on the mofo... skewed to the downside... so, basically we can't get more than 1 down day now, huh?
I actually played with that idea, but instead of putting on the whole thing at once, do one wing at a time ... . May dink with that a bit ... . More commissions, though.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,849
  • May 27, 2015 6:14pm May 27, 2015 6:14pm
Quoting The Fool
tt guys on ic's
in a nutshell, most ic types have their best management approach over time with getting out at 50% profit. Also, straight naked strangles beat all ic types, over time, by a factor of 10.

Go naked!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,850
  • May 27, 2015 6:25pm May 27, 2015 6:25pm
Quoting The Fool
tt guys on ic's (IVR > 50% lol, are u fuginkidinme?) https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_...5?locale=en-US
Just watched that vid ... . Bottom line is that IC's kinda blow ... . Not sure how many occurrences they could have generated with SPX IVR > 50 over the past seven years ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,851
  • May 27, 2015 6:46pm May 27, 2015 6:46pm
so, IVR is IV Rank, so I am guessing there's a period wherein the rank lies? If that's a year look-back, then something with IVR 50% has an IV that is at the mean of the previous years IV distribution? Anyway, IV is going down down....across the board
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,852
  • May 27, 2015 6:48pm May 27, 2015 6:48pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Just watched that vid ... . Bottom line is that IC's kinda blow ....
yeah, blows even more I can't sell naked calls from IRA accounts.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,853
  • May 27, 2015 7:24pm May 27, 2015 7:24pm
Quoting The Fool
so, IVR is IV Rank, so I am guessing there's a period wherein the rank lies? If that's a year look-back, then something with IVR 50% has an IV that is at the mean of the previous years IV distribution? Anyway, IV is going down down....across the board
Here's the dough formula:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IVR.jpg Size: 24 KB


So, I guess for purposes of their Market Measures, they were using IVR, rather than IV ... . I was thinking they were using IV for SPX, in which case they would have had virtually no occurrences for, like, eons ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,854
  • May 27, 2015 7:41pm May 27, 2015 7:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yeah, blows even more I can't sell naked calls from IRA accounts.....
That's why I'm sticking with trading outside the IRA for now with plans to offset profit with increased contributions to my 401(k). Naturally, there will be a tipping point somewhere where that will no longer make sense, but that's a ways off ... . I'll have to roll that 401(k) into an IRA when I retire at which point I'll probably have to trade in it, which isn't all bad ... . It's a big chunk of money ... . Can't just let it sit there or hand it off to some doof "wealth management" arse who makes money regardless of returns ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,855
  • May 27, 2015 7:47pm May 27, 2015 7:47pm
well I have more to put away than I can put in the SEP and Roth IRA's that I have, so I'll just shove any excess into trading accounts. I will continue to max out my Roth contributions every year until I retire, though - hard to beat that tax free net gain
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,856
  • May 27, 2015 8:11pm May 27, 2015 8:11pm
so there are few indicator that come canned in ToS that relate to IV. You can find others out there on the net, maybe some for sale, idk - I have never really bothered because charting is not a big deal to me. Anyway, you have the "ImpVolatility" and the "IV_Percentile" functions - the latter just reports the IVR for the day & it puts that in a little red box in the upper left corner of the chart. The former tracks IV over the chart time period - for what, an aggregate of all options or a weighted average, or what? Idk, different options have different IV's, so Idk exactly what the IV for SPY on a given day actually means.

Anyway, you'll see IVR is reported for today at 20%. If you look back on the chart you see the low/hi for IV are about 10.5% and 25.9%, so todays IV value of 13.6% should be about (the low) + 20% of the low/hi spread, and that looks about right.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-05-27_IV.png Size: 146 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,857
  • May 28, 2015 1:14am May 28, 2015 1:14am
[quote=StrayDog;8287641]We should really do Iron Condors on the mofo... skewed to the downside... so, basically we can't get more than 1 down day now, huh?[/quote]

The tide is turning. I have been looking for some downside strength to sell into - but at the same time I am wary of the actual fact of a Greek default. I think that has a slim chance of happening, but I would like to get the drama past me b4 I hang my ass out short puts in the teeth of that potential event. We will know next week...

Meanwhile /ES is red, maybe we will see a nice pullback for the SnP Thurs...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,858
  • May 28, 2015 1:34am May 28, 2015 1:34am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} in a nutshell, most ic types have their best management approach over time with getting out at 50% profit. Also, straight naked strangles beat all ic types, over time, by a factor of 10. Go naked!
one thing TT gurus don't talk about: TA. Does TA provide an edge? Well, sure it does. So, fine - sell options when the IVR is >50% or whatever, but coordinate your trades with a good TA view of what the underlying is going to do. Why sell calls when you think the u/l is going to keep going up? Why sell calls if the u/l is about to bounce off the bottom of a channel? True, the IVR would be high but that would be the time to think about selling puts. Forgive me if I am belaboring the obvious - but I doubt this kind of consideration works its way into the statistical studies that the TT team cranks out.

I have been selling SPY calls for the last months because I have been of the opinion that SPY was bumping up along the top of a range & its gains would be subdued (the grind up) - and I have been avoiding selling put spreads because I have thought SPY might be susceptible to some big drop, sometime, someday....that has been m/l working, although the big drops have never come. So I could have been doing IC's...well, c'set la vie.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,859
  • May 28, 2015 7:21am May 28, 2015 7:21am
I'm looking to get on a Vertical put spread on DIA for 2 - 4c debit net as below once market opens, If we can finish today as a bear finish then I'm of the belief we could have a strong down day tomorrow, my thesis is based on the weekly DOW chart and the APPLE day chart which I'm looking at 115 area by ear end and then resumption of a BULL trend heading into next years US elections

DIA May 2015 180.000 put (DIA150529P00180000)
-OPR
0.15 0.00(0.00%) 12:48

DIA May 2015 179.500 put (DIA150529P00179500)
-OPR
0.13 0.00(0.00%) 12:48
  • #8,860
  • May 28, 2015 7:51am May 28, 2015 7:51am
Quoting Cecil Gee
I'm looking to get on a Vertical put spread on DIA for 2 - 4c debit net as below once market opens, If we can finish today as a bear finish then I'm of the belief we could have a strong down day tomorrow, my thesis is based on the weekly DOW chart and the APPLE day chart which I'm looking at 115 area by ear end and then resumption of a BULL trend heading into next years US elections
looks like we will gap down pretty good, Dow futures down 50+, you might have to take your spread strikes down a notch, good luck, Cecil. I'm not sure what will happen in a year but I am looking for a sell-off to end the month and something of a June swoon.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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