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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #1,401
  • May 22, 2015 11:11am May 22, 2015 11:11am
With a huge expanding ending diagonal ( wave i overlapping iv ) wave (c), USOil may head down to 56 before resuming uptrend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USOilM30 22May15.png Size: 42 KB
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  • #1,402
  • May 22, 2015 3:21pm May 22, 2015 3:21pm
So price stuck between 58 and 62
I was buying in 54 n 55 cashed 61. Now reloaded 58 but fundamentals are not clear enough to breake the 62 top area.
Interesting area to watch is 57.
Unless a quick move up to 65 this week...
My sl are safe... Will try to hold a while.
Sorry no better chart to post amt
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  • #1,403
  • May 22, 2015 3:27pm May 22, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting _BBKing_
So price stuck between 58 and 62 I was buying in 54 n 55 cashed 61. Now reloaded 58 but fundamentals are not clear enough to breake the 62 top area. Interesting area to watch is 57. Unless a quick move up to 65 this week... My sl are safe... Will try to hold a while. Sorry no better chart to post amt {image}
Chart service here.

58 area is important.
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  • #1,404
  • May 23, 2015 6:19am May 23, 2015 6:19am
Quoting srt
{quote} Chart service here. 58 area is important. {image}

What i'ved been saying for over one month when everyone saying drop to $45
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post8215281
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #1,405
  • May 23, 2015 6:31am May 23, 2015 6:31am
Quoting _BBKing_
So price stuck between 58 and 62 I was buying in 54 n 55 cashed 61. Now reloaded 58 but fundamentals are not clear enough to breake the 62 top area. Interesting area to watch is 57. Unless a quick move up to 65 this week... My sl are safe... Will try to hold a while. Sorry no better chart to post amt {image}
Bbking,

i agree with you on your TA.
I mentioned this a few weeks ago post 1388
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post8258093
but in my opinion a breakout is immenent but problem is which direction.
A lot of talk about $45 lately but I can't see that level with vacation trips are coming.
But i do see a quick drop to $54 if they bring it out.
But until then $58-$73 is my long term range.
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #1,406
  • May 24, 2015 1:14pm May 24, 2015 1:14pm
We have to see what happens in Europe. Everybody was waiting to see the US storage declare 'full' and nobody seemed to be looking at Europe.

Spot cargoes are struggling to find buyers in Europe so maybe the spread will reverse. What happens if Brent crashes? Does WTI hold up?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #1,407
  • May 24, 2015 2:28pm May 24, 2015 2:28pm
Tks for replies
Tomorrow will update with a chart about my view. Nothing special... I just firmly believe price will be back to 70 73 75 78 this year.
Matter as always is to get the correct entry eheh
I will try to stay with current uptrend!

Let s see where opens the week
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  • #1,408
  • May 24, 2015 10:35pm May 24, 2015 10:35pm
another view......
h4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usoilmay252015h4channeltriangle.png Size: 150 KB
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #1,409
  • May 25, 2015 10:11am May 25, 2015 10:11am
Quoting gnomoneey
another view...... h4 {image}
bounced several times on the support
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Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #1,410
  • May 25, 2015 4:02pm May 25, 2015 4:02pm
Finally back to my pc
So here we are:

MONTH

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I see a confluence area between 52.50 and 54.50 with actual monthly pivot in 55.50 and 23% retracement in 57.50. Considering the strong push up last month based on a stop in the super extra production, we shall see nice demand coming if price will ever get these levels.
On the other side, price conquered the forgotten pivot in 58.30: Looks like next goal is the 65-67 area.

WEEK

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Weekly helps me to give a closer look in nearest main level: the 52.50-54.50 area looks like requiring attention... same as the 65-67 where we had strong last supply and 38% retracement.

DAy

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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continuation up or downward? Atm I see a flag formation which clearly suggest where we are going first: 64-66!
can be broken to the downside.. what moves market is not technicals but fundamentals, right?
Isn't it next week coming up some major data for OIL? there you also have a vertical line telling you when next week is gonna end

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  • #1,411
  • May 25, 2015 4:10pm May 25, 2015 4:10pm
there is another possible pattern developing in daily...
in both cases, the 57 area appears quite interesting to me!
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  • #1,412
  • May 26, 2015 12:58am May 26, 2015 12:58am
Quoting _BBKing_
.... continuation up or downward? Atm I see a flag formation which clearly suggest where we are going first: 64-66! can be broken to the downside.. what moves market is not technicals but fundamentals, right? Isn't it next week coming up some major data for OIL? there you also have a vertical line telling you when next week is gonna end
For me your monthly chart suggests downward momentum.
Whether PA makes back to any of the common fib. levels first is a discussion point.
China's economy appears to have the brakes on, so a reduction in demand there will have a big effect.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #1,413
  • May 26, 2015 3:44pm May 26, 2015 3:44pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} For me your monthly chart suggests downward momentum. Whether PA makes back to any of the common fib. levels first is a discussion point. China's economy appears to have the brakes on, so a reduction in demand there will have a big effect.
yes the monthly is downtrend but I also consider very important last month engulfing the 3 previous ones.
even if downtrend, a bounce to 38% retrace is quite probable since the 23% is already conquered!
eventually, a move back below the 57.50 could open for 54-55 again.

Just technical analysis of course, so let's see what fundamentals will tell.

Would not underestimate that production is at very high levels... a bit slowdown in next weeks and price will be teleported above 62!
Also the average price for this year has been revised, so considering where market opened, definetly a move aroun 70-75 is likely to happen (just maths).
Still as always the matter is about entry point.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I just added one in 57.86. we never know!
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  • #1,414
  • May 26, 2015 3:55pm May 26, 2015 3:55pm
The dollar is going higher - most likely. Which most of the time means crude lower.
  • #1,415
  • May 26, 2015 10:49pm May 26, 2015 10:49pm
most of crude's decline today was from the Iraq production news factored in with stronger us dollar.
if the us dollar was even on the day crude would still be down....maybe not as much, but still down.

Natural Gas still very bearish. Holding my sells @2.845 on July Future that I have to get ride of by 6/23 (my broker requires 3 business days before last trading day---don't ask why. just is that way)
  • #1,416
  • May 28, 2015 9:59am May 28, 2015 9:59am
nat gas falls 12.5 cents. Closed!
  • #1,417
  • May 28, 2015 10:12am May 28, 2015 10:12am
Quoting yeniful
nat gas falls 12.5 cents. Closed!
I had a huge slippage...damn
  • #1,418
  • May 28, 2015 2:42pm May 28, 2015 2:42pm
Come and see WTI Oil gliding like a ballerina from one extreme to the other! Zeniths and nadirs hit with ease; as if the distance between high and low is no distance at all. In one day hitting extremes twice, with even time for the odd pirouette here and there. I wonder how many of you had to pay dearly for this show?
  • #1,419
  • May 28, 2015 6:04pm May 28, 2015 6:04pm
Quoting Steve J
Come and see WTI Oil gliding like a ballerina from one extreme to the other! Zeniths and nadirs hit with ease; as if the distance between high and low is no distance at all. In one day hitting extremes twice, with even time for the odd pirouette here and there. I wonder how many of you had to pay dearly for this show?
I closed longs yesterday nera 58
Reloaded today 57
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #1,420
  • May 28, 2015 7:40pm May 28, 2015 7:40pm
With present PA of a blue corrective wave (iv), USOil may see 56 level before resuming uptrend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USOilM30 28May15.png Size: 68 KB
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