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My EA Gift to Traders

  • #1,361
  • Edited 5:27pm May 24, 2015 4:41pm | Edited 5:27pm
Thanks for your kind comments and I'll now push ahead with more videos so some guidance on what is most important to you will help me.
  • #1,362
  • May 24, 2015 5:13pm May 24, 2015 5:13pm
Just a prompt to encourage you to use the advanced statistics information on myfxbook. I have reproduced the information on the CCI Strategy which is currently running. http://www.myfxbook.com/members/trad...ci-vol/1252713
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  • #1,363
  • Edited 1:23am May 25, 2015 12:27am | Edited 1:23am
Todays Discussion:

Take Profit Multiplier

This value can be used in conjunction with the TakeProfitATRPeriods and used to calculate a Take Profit based on the ATR value as discussed yesterday.

If the TakeProfitATRPeriods is left at zero, TakeProfitMultiplier takes on a new meaning and is used as a means of determining Take Profit from Stop Loss

In this context, TakeProfitMultiplier is the multiple used to determine the TakeProfit Value from the StopLoss Value.

Look at it as reward v's risk ratio and it is the recommended method for determining Take Profit
for example StopLoss = 100, TakeProfitMultiple = 2.5 gives a calculated value of 250 pips for TakeProfit

This multiple can be expressed in decimal values (eg. 1.7) and it is recommended that it always be optimized in conjunction with StopLoss and StopLossMultiple to form the basis of a money management plan. You will often hear of risk/reward ratios being discussed and this multiple is the reverse of that ratio. Generally it is accepted that that the R/R ratio never be greater than 1 and for you that means that the multiple minimum should never be less than 1.

There are an additional three considerations in the money management plan and they will discussed over the coming 3 days -
Set Stop Loss To Break Even,
Minimum Pip Gain,
Decrease Stop Loss Percentage
  • #1,364
  • May 25, 2015 4:22am May 25, 2015 4:22am
Hello,

I tried to load data for GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and other pairs for last 3-5 years.
During the initial phase of optimization I receive the error from the screenshot (attached).
Could someone help me regarding this error ?
Data was obtained with SQ Tick Data downloader.

Thank you !
Attached Image
  • #1,365
  • May 25, 2015 3:29pm May 25, 2015 3:29pm
Quoting noaccess
Hello, I tried to load data for GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and other pairs for last 3-5 years. During the initial phase of optimization I receive the error from the screenshot (attached). Could someone help me regarding this error ? Data was obtained with SQ Tick Data downloader. Thank you ! {image}
It looks like a data error. The data used must be 1 minute data in the following format

yyyy.MM.dd,hh:mm,open,high,low,close,volume

an example below
2015.02.23,00:06,0.78379,0.78382,0.78365,0.78381,46 (comma or space separated values are OK)

Please use the free downloadable data from the website.

The other possibilities are that the nominated timeframe does not match the data supplied or you have selected too large of a timeframe. I do not recommend back testing any data beyond 3 or 4 months ago as market behaviour is constantly changing.
  • #1,366
  • May 25, 2015 7:53pm May 25, 2015 7:53pm
Here's the second video. Let me know what you need next


Introduction to Traders Gift EA.
Inserted Video
  • #1,367
  • Edited May 26, 2015 3:28am May 25, 2015 10:52pm | Edited May 26, 2015 3:28am
Todays Discussion:

Set Stop Loss to Break Even Pips
This is probably one of the least understood settings and involves a lot of time with support issues.

Here is a quick example and I will discuss it after the example.

Buy Trade at 1.0000. SetStopLossToBreakEvenPips = 30
At 1.0032 (the 2 pips is representative of the spread), the Stop Loss is moved to 1.0002. In other words you will no longer make any loss on that trade.

This does need further explanation however. If your original Stop Loss was 80 and had been trailing up to this point, it will cease to trail at 1.0032 and will only commence to trail again at 1.0082 and that is the part that its being misunderstood. In other words there will be no movement of Stop Loss between 1.0032 and 1.0082. The integrity of the value of Stop Loss is being protected but more importantly your capital is being preserved in the interim and you will, in the worst case scenario, break even. Once the price moves above 1.0082, the Trailing Stop Loss will recommence.

When you look at the EA's in Trade Explorer and on the website, you will see that the bulk of trades are affected by this setting. So what you are in fact achieving, is preservation of capital just waiting for the opportunity of that killer trade. In most of the examples, this does mean that the wager will be increased on the next trade in accordance with the Minimum Pip Gain setting, the subject of tomorrow's discussion.

FOOTNOTE: I have factored in programmatically a couple of "feel good" pips. That is you will come out with a minimal profit when the SetStopLossToBreakEvenPips cuts in. This couple of pips cannot be changed.
  • #1,368
  • Edited May 26, 2015 12:39am May 25, 2015 11:42pm | Edited May 26, 2015 12:39am
Dave,

Thanks for your continuous contribution.
On the "strategyOptimizer" ; are there date limit, what i mean is that I tried many times of up "SelectData" 1M data up to today "26th of May" but everytime im clicking on "start Optimization" after reached 99% it will crashes; my csv is same format as your. Im using 1M data from both tickstory and SQ; for now only your csv file will switch to optimization screen after 99%

Found solutions: for forward testing
1st click "continue",
2nd click on "ShowInput" icon and the same icon will switch "showOptimization"
3rd unchecked all "moneyManangement" checkbox (except "Use Trailing Stop Loss)
4th in "stretegies and filters" only have checkbox on "Enable" on CCI and Volume for example.

conclusion: everything is working.... just suppress that popup-prompt
***tickstory: {BarBeginTime:yyyy.MM.dd},{BarBeginTime:HH:mm},{Open},{High},{Low},{Close},{Volume.}
***if GP is this good...might as well set it as a "Sender"
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  • #1,369
  • May 26, 2015 12:58am May 26, 2015 12:58am
Quoting getting
Dave, Thanks for your continuous contribution. On the "strategyOptimizer" ; are there date limit, what i mean is that I tried many times of up "SelectData" 1M data up to today "26th of May" but everytime im clicking on "start Optimization" after reached 99% it will crashes; my csv is same format as your. Im using 1M data from both tickstory and SQ; for now only your csv file will switch to optimization screen after 99% Found solutions: for forward testing 1st click "continue", 2nd click on "ShowInput" icon and the same icon will switch...
I don't understand all your message. What does this mean - if GP is this good...might as well set it as a "Sender"

Can you please try the following data which is part of the 2015 downloadable zip file and let me know if you have the same problem.
This is the completed output using the enclosed file. Can you also please check that you have the latest Ver 1.45 by clicking on the About button.
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Attached File(s)
File Type: zip GBPUSD_M1_2015.zip   1.1 MB | 207 downloads
  • #1,370
  • May 26, 2015 1:07am May 26, 2015 1:07am
Quoting Dave_C
{quote} I don't understand all your message. What does this mean - if GP is this good...might as well set it as a "Sender" Can you please try the following data which is part of the 2015 downloadable zip file and let me know if you have the same problem. This is the completed output using the enclosed file. {file} {image}
NO issue with ur zip file...no issue if data ending at 30th of April. Im running into that popup screen when my data is from Jan 1st to May 26th(today), but not major issue really.
GP = GlobalPrime.
Sender = "TradeCopy Sender"
1.45 = comfirmed
  • #1,371
  • May 26, 2015 1:23am May 26, 2015 1:23am
Quoting getting
{quote} NO issue with ur zip file...no issue if data ending at 30th of April. Im running into that popup screen when my data is from Jan 1st to May 26th(today), but not major issue really. GP = GlobalPrime. Sender = "TradeCopy Sender" 1.45 = comfirmed
I'm sorry, I still don't get the sender part or the issue with the Date. Can you try data which doesn't end today?
  • #1,372
  • May 26, 2015 2:43am May 26, 2015 2:43am
Quoting Dave_C
{quote} I'm sorry, I still don't get the sender part or the issue with the Date. Can you try data which doesn't end today?
Looks to me he is trying to tell you -

If GP (Global Prime - a broker) is this good (good speed, good spread, good trades or good profit, who knows?)

Then set it as a "Sender" - this means, run the trading EA on this broker and "send" the trade signals to other accounts using

refer to the TraderCopy Sneder link which goes to FX Blue software for exactly that function

That's about all I got
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,373
  • May 26, 2015 3:37am May 26, 2015 3:37am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Looks to me he is trying to tell you - If GP (Global Prime - a broker) is this good (good speed, good spread, good trades or good profit, who knows?) Then set it as a "Sender" - this means, run the trading EA on this broker and "send" the trade signals to other accounts using refer to the TraderCopy Sneder link which goes to FX Blue software for exactly that function That's about all I got
Thanks for that explanation and I understand. It would help in lining up trades on my demos (which are hosted by Global Prime) with viewers demo accounts.
  • #1,374
  • May 26, 2015 6:50am May 26, 2015 6:50am
Hi Dave,
Thank You for the videos and detailed explanation on the settings. Really appreciate it.
Regarding the CCI VOL system running, i saw GU loss with a 8.11 lot. As per my understanding, this happened due to consecutive BEs and the SL multiplier added lots to the subsequent trades. For GU isn't 10 pips BE too tight? I am just curious about it. You are the master who optimized it for the best results.

Thanks
Bluejack
  • #1,375
  • May 26, 2015 7:51am May 26, 2015 7:51am
Quoting bluejack
Hi Dave, Thank You for the videos and detailed explanation on the settings. Really appreciate it. Regarding the CCI VOL system running, i saw GU loss with a 8.11 lot. As per my understanding, this happened due to consecutive BEs and the SL multiplier added lots to the subsequent trades. For GU isn't 10 pips BE too tight? I am just curious about it. You are the master who optimized it for the best results. Thanks Bluejack
Yes, I saw that myself and I know in my own trading, I have interfered with EA's when I have seen something which I strongly disagree with. Tomorrow I will have good look at the optimization and see whether this was a good move because from my way of thinking 10 pips is too close. What I am interested in is whether this setting stood alone or whether it was part of a number of high performers all with this same low value.

Will give you a summary tomorrow because this is a very relevant observation.
  • #1,376
  • May 26, 2015 9:53am May 26, 2015 9:53am
Quoting Dave_C
{quote} Yes, I saw that myself and I know in my own trading, I have interfered with EA's when I have seen something which I strongly disagree with. Tomorrow I will have good look at the optimization and see whether this was a good move because from my way of thinking 10 pips is too close. What I am interested in is whether this setting stood alone or whether it was part of a number of high performers all with this same low value. Will give you a summary tomorrow because this is a very relevant observation.
Any chance the trade comment can have what wager number we are on and what the max will be? So if we can have only a max of 4 wagers before hitting the 20% drawdown.....then if we are on wager 3 it will show that in the description so we can see what cycle we are in.
  • #1,377
  • May 26, 2015 10:59am May 26, 2015 10:59am
Hi Dave, first I would like to thank you for this site that helps traders from all walks of life.I have a question using CCI Custom Candles and The G(roovy)Spot(1) or similar can the

SELL arrow be the indicator to place a trade and the next BUY arrow TP
BUY arrow is also the indicator to place a trade and the next SELL arrow TP
The indicators I found while in the forum where the discussion was on TCMM Straddle strategy. I have only been trading three weeks now so this is all pretty new to me.If this strategy is already in your paid EA happy to purchase


Regards !!!
  • #1,378
  • Edited 5:37pm May 26, 2015 5:01pm | Edited 5:37pm
Quoting bluejack
Hi Dave, Thank You for the videos and detailed explanation on the settings. Really appreciate it. Regarding the CCI VOL system running, i saw GU loss with a 8.11 lot. As per my understanding, this happened due to consecutive BEs and the SL multiplier added lots to the subsequent trades. For GU isn't 10 pips BE too tight? I am just curious about it. You are the master who optimized it for the best results. Thanks Bluejack
I have revisited this event and looked at the mechanics behind the $10,000 loss and whether 10 pips breakeven was a good idea.

Whenever an optimization is made using a genetic algorithm, some shortcuts and assumptions have to be made and if you Google the subject you will see that it does take some advanced mathematical steps. Whilst I made the source code available for MT4, my coding for Strategy Optimizer is proprietary because before I could even start this project, I had to the have the code for the genetic algorithm spot on because I personally wanted something better than MT4 particularly in terms of speed. The reality is that with hundreds of thousands and even billions of iterations created with optimization of many variables, some assumptions and shortcuts are made.

I watched the optimization very closely in this case, and in retrospect and it bedded down firmly and fairly early with the other variables so my assumption was that in conjunction with the CCI which can display volatility, an early decision with this currency pair (GBPUSD) in relation to profitability was the best answer. In effect the optimization is saying is that if there is not a clean break from the around the zero profit level, do not persist with the trade.

I might add that when I went back and locked the Break Even level at 30 and re ran the optimization, I got better results. You would realise it was only last week, I was singing the praises of this optimization with GBPUSD and I mentioned the reason why I was not publishing my live trades. Part of the reason is that my own trades are my personal business but also part of the reason is that I have been known to interfere in auto trading as I mentioned at that time.

Greed has caught me out too many times and also being timid has done the same and in reality this started out as an experiment to see what could develop and the rest is history. Fxtrader08 has made a good suggestion and I think it is a good idea that I highlight, most probably in the info panel where I can use a colour highlighter, the percentage level of equity that the current trade is using with a highlight for say over 10%. As to whether you interfere, I would say definitely not but when it is your own hard cold cash, that is your business and I can only make reference to the events in Post #1342 as a classic example because it involved as a co-incidence this very pair and strategy.

So in summary, this is a part of optimization and trading in general. What is more important is the big picture and that is why I have made a conscious decision on this thread to educate and advocate against long optimizations and blind trust and that what has happened in the past will continue on. I restarted MACD Cdl as an experiment but from now on, it will be new optimizations every month on the last 3 months data and I will no longer support past strategies and posters who still want to persist with them. FX trading is dynamic and needs to be worked at constantly.

The tools are there and in this case if you look at your optimizations and don't like what you see, delve further, see what the effect of locking the value of a variable has on the optimization.

FOOTNOTE: My next video will be on Set files and optimizations and I will address this issue that we are discussing. Possibly within the next couple of days. It would be a lot easier if take #1 was OK but at around take #10 you tend to get exasperated.
  • #1,379
  • May 26, 2015 5:12pm May 26, 2015 5:12pm
Quoting rammer13
Hi Dave, first I would like to thank you for this site that helps traders from all walks of life.I have a question using CCI Custom Candles and The G(roovy)Spot(1) or similar can the SELL arrow be the indicator to place a trade and the next BUY arrow TP BUY arrow is also the indicator to place a trade and the next SELL arrow TP The indicators I found while in the forum where the discussion was on TCMM Straddle strategy. I have only been trading three weeks now so this is all pretty new to me.If this strategy is already in your paid EA happy to purchase...
Your request is one of so many I receive on a daily basis by email, PM and posts such as yours to include a pet strategy into Traders Gift. The short answer is no. At the moment, there is a degree of stability in the code for Traders Gift EA and Strategy Optimizer and each program involves many thousand of lines of code.

There's probably thousands of trading ideas on Forex Factory and I have dealt with around 300 requests to incorporate others strategies into the EA and in the early days when I was trying to get traction, I tried my hardest to be receptive but managing the code for all the one off requests was very difficult so I hope you and others understand that for the time being the KISS principle is the way it will remain. There are more than enough considerations for you to work with.
  • #1,380
  • Edited 7:05pm May 26, 2015 6:38pm | Edited 7:05pm
Quoting Dave_C
{quote} I have revisited this event and looked at the mechanics behind the $10,000 loss and whether 10 pips breakeven was a good idea. Whenever an optimization is made using a genetic algorithm, some shortcuts and assumptions have to be made and if you Google the subject you will see that it does take some advanced mathematical steps. Whilst I made the source code available for MT4, my coding for Strategy Optimizer is proprietary because before I could even start this project, I had to the have the code for the genetic algorithm spot on because...
Hi Dave,

I wonder if it would help the cause to implement a "2-D" optimization graph similar to that produced during MT4 optimizations. The benefit of the graph is that it illustrates visually whether the backtest result of any particular set of parameters was simply random or is likely to be repeated in live trading. See the 2 attached image files. Each square represents an optimization run based on a different parameter setting as the algorithm "steps" through the process. The dark green squares represent the parameter settings that produced the best results. Notice in the top image that the dark green squares are distributed quite randomly. Personally, I would not trust these settings in live trading. In the bottom image, the darker green squares tend to be clustered together. I would have more faith that one of these settings would produce similar results in live trading to what they produced in the backtest. When I run MT4 optimizations, I always take into account the information revealed about a particular setting by the graph.

For anyone wanting to learn more about this subject, you could start here: https://www.mql5.com/en/articles/1434

Kind regards,
drofwarc
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