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My EA Gift to Traders

  • #1,341
  • May 21, 2015 5:33pm May 21, 2015 5:33pm
Hi Dave,

I see all the time you use the same strategy for all pairs in one MT4 account. Drawing attention to the money management perspective, could we use different strategies for different pairs in the same MT4 account? For a example MACD CDL for EURUSD, CCL Vol for AUDUSD, ....

Thank you
  • #1,342
  • Edited 8:37pm May 21, 2015 5:39pm | Edited 8:37pm
This is an absolute classic and I can't resist the urge to post it and provide a commentary. I never have posted any results of my live trades because they are not always copybook and mostly because I interfere and here is an absolute doosey which I am sure has happened to all of us. Talk about a bad hair day and why the EA is good for all of us.

This is the CCI Vol in action on the GBPAUD which I mentioned 3 posts above.

1. Great candles on the 1st buy - No wonder CCI Vol gives buy indication, spinning top not formed yet at time of buy. In hindsight a manual intervention could have been a good idea. The inevitable happens, price reversal just as we enter a buy trade.

2. Gets stopped out and we just knew it was going to happen! CCI Vol gives signal to sell. Price again reverses just as we enter a sell trade. Probably no hair left to pull out after this event.

3. Stopped out again. Time to break open the bottle and reflect about giving up trading because of such bad decisions. Mr. EA takes all this in his stride and remains cool, calm and collected knowing that he can go up to 20%. After all, this trade is only just over 4 units.

4. Not in the illustration. But just stopped out by a trailing stop loss at around $4000 profit. (see Post #1339)

That is what this thread is all about. Let the EA do its stuff! Don't panic if it makes some wrong moves. Couldn't be any worse situation than this example.
Thanks to fxtrader08 for his support.

Every EA needs a bedding down period. Just look at any Trade Explorers I have ever posted.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-05-22 08_07_36-2015-05-21 20_01_33-2016536_ GlobalPrime-Demo - Demo Account - [GBPAUD,H1].j.jpg Size: 105 KB
  • #1,343
  • Edited 5:51pm May 21, 2015 5:41pm | Edited 5:51pm
Quoting demalichcha
Hi Dave, I see all the time you use the same strategy for all pairs in one MT4 account. Drawing attention to the money management perspective, could we use different strategies for different pairs in the same MT4 account? For a example MACD CDL for EURUSD, CCL Vol for AUDUSD, .... Thank you
Of course you can. I prefer a basket of currency pairs. I only keep the accounts separate to give clarity of results and better trade analysis.
  • #1,344
  • May 21, 2015 8:35pm May 21, 2015 8:35pm
Todays Discussion:

Use Trailing Stop Loss
I can cover this in one word - Yes
If ever there was a good illustration to demonstrate yesterday and todays topic, it is in the post 2 above.

The Trailing Stop Loss is automatically placed the nominated number of pips (the Stop Loss value) below the highest point on a buy trade and reverse for a sell trade. It is generally moved every 5 pips (0.0005) increase in price. If the price moves backward there is no adjustment.

There is also one situation where the Stop Loss will not trail and that is when the Set Stop Loss to Break Even cuts in to protect profits. The trail stops at this point and will not recommence until the price moves above Break Even by the value of the Stop Loss pips.

For example - if Set Stop Loss to Breakeven is set at 30 and Breakeven is 1.0000, at 1.0030 the StopLoss Price will be set to 1.0000 (I have factored in a couple of "feelgood" pips). If the Stop Loss value is 80, the Stop Loss will not start trailing again until the price has passed 1.0080.

Trailing Stop Loss gives you the security of maximising your profits by allowing for a pull back up to the value of your Stop Loss. There is another variable yet to be discussed which can progressively decrease the value of your Stop Loss as your profit increases and that is the Decrease Stop Loss Percentage which will be covered in detail in due course.
  • #1,345
  • Edited 1:51am May 22, 2015 1:39am | Edited 1:51am
Recently I touched on the issue of differing results in Trade Optimizer and MT4 where a poster was trying to line up results and I briefly mentioned the reasons and here is a short recap on the post.

Quote:
I've had a good look at the data you sent me including the actual trades that took place on each platform.

Of particular interest is the first trade since Strategy Optimizer did not take the trade that occurred on 10th February whereas MT4 obviously had previous data.

After that the trades were at different dates according as to whether there were trades opened at the time.

I also looked at the staking progression. In Strategy Optimizer, the wager is calculated with regard to the exchange rate to the USD whereas in MT4 the wager is simply calculated at an exchange rate of 1. You will notice that by changing the native currency in the expert properties, testing tab. No matter what currency you select, all wagers are calculated at an exchange rate of 1. This is an oversight because your SL will not equate to your own currency.

The betting progression because of this is .2,.4,.8,1.6,2.0 back to .2. In SO the progression is .17,.18,.36,.72,1.44, 1.63 (20% of equity) and then back to .17.

Summing up there are multiple factors at work here, affecting timing of trades and size of wager all resulting in different graphs. What is important is that the indicator values are correct which is the case.

Hope this helps
Regards
Dave

Reply:
Yes that does thanks again Dave
end Quote:
(related diagram below)

That was to explain differences between MT4 and Strategy Optimizer but it does allude to issues relating to the timing of trades and to why you may not be experiencing the same returns that the CCI Vol Strategy is achieving at the top of the page.

4 days ago I restarted MACD Cdl strategy (as an experiment) which many contributors showed a great deal of interest in previously and I always tried to not encourage them to follow the strategy because I felt it had run its course.

I want to be very clear and itemize a number of factors that you should take into account.

1. The current market is everything.

2. Past performance does not predicate the future.

3. The market behaviour is constantly changing.

4. It is possible for an EA to get on the wrong side of the market and it may take some time to "Bed Down". I mentioned in Post #1339 that I would address this issue. If the scenario in that Post and further addressed in Post #1342 happens, your ability to recover in the short term is much different. As it was, that became a very profitable move because the EA was well and truly established and the final move well and truly capitalized on the GBP retail sales hike because the money management put that Strategy in a position to catch that really good trade most effectively. If you had just started with the EA that morning, you may have had 3 successful trades in a row (in the opposite direction to my demo) and still be sitting on the minimum wager when that good move came.

5. Many times I have mentioned this "Bedding Down Factor" and the MACD Cdl is still in this process 4 days later but as I have said, I believe it has run its course and hence no download link for this strategy.

What I am really encouraging you to do is to make your own decisions. By now nearly all of you will be aware of my email offer commencing next month to provide you with 168 strategies which will be changed on a monthly basis but undergo a 1 months trial on a demo account and monitored by myfxbook. Demalichcha above posed the question about combining different strategies on 1 account. By all means do that! Just remember your broker will issue you with more than 1 live account. Break down your capital while you are refining. There is no limit on the number of demos and whilst 6 months ago most demo accounts expired after 1 month, market forces have prevailed and most brokers demo accounts no longer expire. PM me and I will advise you. Same with free VPS offerings.

Pick the eyes out of the successful strategies.

Develop an arsenal of favourite Strategies. Tinker with them, fine tune them, decide if some of them should run longer than a month but above all else demo trade them. Set up VPS's to keep your own tests running. Only when you have the complete confidence from Demo, try a test run on a live trade with a small balance.

I also suggested to a contributor this morning by email that he consider reducing the % of equity from 2% to 1% or even less during the first week of an EA.

One thing I am confident in is that you have enough tools of trade to become a tradesman if you put in the work.
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  • #1,346
  • Edited 7:39am May 22, 2015 3:43am | Edited 7:39am
Quoting Dave_C
Todays Discussion: Use Trailing Stop Loss I can cover this in one word - Yes If ever there was a good illustration to demonstrate yesterday and todays topic, it is in the post 2 above. The Trailing Stop Loss is automatically placed the nominated number of pips (the Stop Loss value) below the highest point on a buy trade and reverse for a sell trade. It is generally moved every 5 pips (0.0005) increase in price. If the price moves backward there is no adjustment. There is also one situation where the Stop Loss will not trail and that is when the...

Hi Dave,
could you please make a concrete example?

eg. Buy trade at 1.0000, SL 100 pips... we start to gain some pips, at which current price the EA SL will be moved up (I understood at current price 1.0100, SL will be moved from 0.0900 to 1.0000)? and then, still gain some pips, when the second SL modification will occour?

Thanks a lot!
  • #1,347
  • May 22, 2015 12:30pm May 22, 2015 12:30pm
Quoting nikon82
{quote} Hi Dave, could you please make a concrete example? eg. Buy trade at 1.0000, SL 100 pips... we start to gain some pips, at which current price the EA SL will be moved up (I understood at current price 1.0100, SL will be moved from 0.0900 to 1.0000)? and then, still gain some pips, when the second SL modification will occour? Thanks a lot!
With a spread of 2 pips, when the price reaches 1.0007 the StopLoss will be moved to .9907 (from the first setting of .9902)
  • #1,348
  • Edited 1:55pm May 22, 2015 1:09pm | Edited 1:55pm
Very sorry Dave, I have not understood... Could you please continue on my previous example?
  • #1,349
  • May 22, 2015 3:23pm May 22, 2015 3:23pm
Quoting nikon82
Very sorry Dave, I have not understood... Could you please continue on my previous example?
.9912
  • #1,350
  • May 22, 2015 5:53pm May 22, 2015 5:53pm
hi dave thanks for the afford for making ea
it seem work well for CCI Vol
im going to test it more.....good job dave
can i ask a question?
can this ea use for cent account?
can this ea use for 5 digit or need 4 digit broker?
  • #1,351
  • May 22, 2015 8:02pm May 22, 2015 8:02pm
Quoting sixth007
hi dave thanks for the afford for making ea it seem work well for CCI Vol im going to test it more.....good job dave can i ask a question? can this ea use for cent account? can this ea use for 5 digit or need 4 digit broker?
It works on both 4 and 5 digit brokers.
  • #1,352
  • Edited 9:45pm May 22, 2015 9:07pm | Edited 9:45pm
Todays Discussion:

Take Profit
Expressed in Pips (0.0001 except JPY pairs 0.01 Gold 0.1 and Silver 0.01)

Normally this figure is just expressed as a value but the Take Profit value can also be derived automatically from the value of the Take Profit Multiplier.

If you wish the value to be derived automatically, change the value of the Take Profit Multiplier (default is zero). If the Take Profit Multiplier = 2, that means the Take Profit will be 2 x Stop Loss value and that in effect is setting a Risk/Reward ratio of 1:2 (this will take effect if the Take Profit ATR Periods is left at zero in the same way that Stop Loss Multiplier takes on a new meaning when the Stop Loss ATR Periods is left at zero)

So the thing to remember, is that if you are using a risk/reward ratio as part of your money management, the Take Profit will be set automatically by the TakeProfitMultiplier (which can be a decimal value). It defaults to zero. Any other setting will set the Take Profit automatically.

When setting the value for Take Profit, bear in mind that at a gearing level of 100:1, you will gain the value of your investment when the price changes by 0.01 (1 cent). At 400:1 gearing level you gain the value of your investment when the price moves in your favour by 0.0025 (a quarter of a cent). Scalping the market means that you are looking for quick profits, something below 0.0010, that is a movement of 10 pips or less. Obviously the return is much less unless the wager is higher. A few years ago, Brokers frowned on scalpers but now they actually don't mind at all. No doubt you have seen the threads devoted to ideas such a just making 5 pips a day.

My advice is to do your own back testing and optimization and see where your money is working most effectively. Trades with Take Profit values around 100 to 200 pips using hourly charts running a number of days seem to be more effective. Short term trading involves more trades which means more costs and entry points can be more critical.
  • #1,353
  • May 23, 2015 6:05am May 23, 2015 6:05am
hi dave
today for im gonna share some info for trading test
balance start 1000usd
trade all pair you noted at 1st page
two days trade total got around 80usd
its great!!!
hope more update from you dave!!!
thanks very much
  • #1,354
  • May 23, 2015 11:45pm May 23, 2015 11:45pm
Todays Discussion:

Take Profit ATR Periods
This discussion is very similar to the discussion on StopLossATRPeriods and the same considerations apply.

ATR stands for Average True Range which is an exponential moving average (EMA) of True Range.

True Range is the largest of the range from -

previous candle Close to current candle High
previous candle Close to current candle Low
current candle high to current candle low

Average True Range is calculated with the value of this input which represents the number of periods for the calculation which is the EMA of True Range.
In effect it is the average value of the size of the bars and can be applied as an indicator value multiplied by a value which is specified in the next input - TakeProfitMultiplier.

An example:
TakeProfitATRPeriods = 14 (that is the average fluctuation over 14 periods) ----> gives a calculated ATR value of 6.22 (pips)
TakeProfitMultiplier = 15
TakeProfit will be respected at 93 pips.

ATR is based on the current timeframe ie. the chart timeframe to which the EA is attached
You are nominating the number of periods - TakeProfitATRPeriods (in the example it's the average size of the fluctuations over 14 bars)

You need to be mindful of the risk of over expectation with profit goals and this method gives you the ability to take into account how the market has been performing over the previous TakeProfitATRPeriods. With optimization, this value and the value of the TakeProfitMultiplier can be optimized and your profit performance will be related to current market conditions.

By using this method, Risk/Reward is take out of the equation and I do recommend that Risk/Reward is a sounder money management consideration. More on that in tomorrows discussion.
  • #1,355
  • Edited 2:33am May 24, 2015 2:22am | Edited 2:33am
This is my first attempt at a video help file so please be kind and I'd appreciate some input.

It's an introduction to Strategy Optimizer. At times the mouse gets a little ahead of the narrative but I'll get that sorted out.

Inserted Video
  • #1,356
  • May 24, 2015 2:38am May 24, 2015 2:38am
Quoting Dave_C
This is my first attempt at a video help file so please be kind and I'd appreciate some input. It's an introduction to Strategy Optimizer. At times the mouse gets a little ahead of the narrative but I'll get that sorted out. https://youtu.be/Ah5H-jwEaJk
Very clear and concise, thanks for taking the time out to make this. It will prove very valuable to newcomers.
  • #1,357
  • May 24, 2015 9:05am May 24, 2015 9:05am
Thank you for the video and for your hard work.

Regards
  • #1,358
  • May 24, 2015 9:55am May 24, 2015 9:55am
Hi Dave,
Thank You for the EA and video...

Bluejack
  • #1,359
  • May 24, 2015 10:12am May 24, 2015 10:12am
Quoting Dave_C
This is my first attempt at a video help file so please be kind and I'd appreciate some input. It's an introduction to Strategy Optimizer. At times the mouse gets a little ahead of the narrative but I'll get that sorted out. https://youtu.be/Ah5H-jwEaJk
Great video Dave. Was away for a month or so, much needed break from everything. Glad to be back and I like the new updates. Also love the topic of discussion that you're doing by picking one topic related to EA and explaining. I bet that anyone has questions and reads those, lots of confusions will be cleared quickly.
As I was reading through, looks like you've made more updates and moved all files to your website. I'll make sure to download new ones, since it has been a while and your CCI explorer with volume seems to be doing good. This really proves that the EA is quite profitable, just right settings are required.

Keep up the great work Dave, and you've gone further and explained things in video as well. I'll be following closely.

All the best.
  • #1,360
  • May 24, 2015 12:50pm May 24, 2015 12:50pm
Great video - thank you Dave. I now feel that I could face up to your Strategy Optimzer whereas before I thought it would be impossible for me to conquer!
Also the Daily Discussions are most helpful.
Really Great Work - thanks again.
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