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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #19,221
  • May 23, 2015 5:41am May 23, 2015 5:41am
Quoting infinitus
Is the FED controlling interest rates? Read more at: http://ewminteractive.com/is-the-fed-controlling-interest-rates/ | EWM Interactive
Ye structural analysis would agree with that direction. Another QE would change that though, lets see if it comes.
  • #19,222
  • May 23, 2015 5:42am May 23, 2015 5:42am
Relax issue.

Should we really bring the mammoths back to life?

Scientists a Step Closer to Cloning Siberian Mammoth

http://russia-insider.com/en/politic...mammoth/ri7156

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,223
  • May 23, 2015 5:44am May 23, 2015 5:44am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} When we see huge movements as from the 18may I think big fishes give a signal and short together. The insider information is cooperation among the biggest. It must be. What is your prediction abouth the euro? I saw yesterday that you thought many shortrers stopped their positions

We are in difficult area right now.

The volume profiles show, that huge positions were build between roughly 1.06 and 1.08

My main scenario is, that we are either in a wave 4 up, with having the wave A of it completed (would call for months long sideways in wide swings), or we have finished this wave 4 (time and price would be already satisfied) and are now down in a developing wave 5, which most likely will go sub-parity.

Also there exists the alternative scenario, where we have already bottomed (for intermediate terms (moths to years) (wave 5 down was finished) (but EU will not exceeds previous highs before making new significant low). I think this scenario is much more unlikely than the first one.

Regarding the big-fishes:

we can not rule out that a few do signal each other. We are seeing it recently with the FX rigging probe. But keep in mind: they only seemed to be able to rig the market for the purpose of the fixing (sic! for a very short period of time).

Keep also in mind: big fishes are no friends. They are competitors, enemies when you like. Maybe it would need to many big fishes to degree on direction to rig the market all the time. You can hardly get two parties to agree all the time.
  • #19,224
  • Edited 5:59am May 23, 2015 5:49am | Edited 5:59am
quote=janpec1000;8280488]{quote} You are buying EUR on EU based fundamentals but you are complety discrediting USA fundamentals. You are picking the side with David instead Goliath. 2015/16 EURUSD price drive will not come from Europe, it will come from USA and FED. Even if you are right about your fundamental analysis of EU which i think its not, you can be picking bad trade due to other party of influence on EURUSD price. FED hikes and all your correct reasons go belly up. That is difference between pickng good fundamental trade and a bad one with mixed outcome. Good...[/quote]

Hi Janpec!

I have been among thos who are very sceptical to the improvements in the US economy. It improves only With QE, low currency due to investments into lower currency countries. AS I also wrote I think the strong US will damage the US economy.In the future we will se a sharp decline in the USD. AS I said before I think it exist som agreement between the centralbanks to support the economics between the US and Europe. I think we still are there. US are supporting Europe to lower their currency.
The diffecult question is are we abouth to turn on this? We have seen several improvements in Europe since may last year but it still will take time. You can see the figures and expectations in Europe showing that. The QE will keep the interst rate low. WE are still there. I also think we will see soon a Stock market correction that will make USD rise. After that it is time for turning. That is why I do not have any lower goal than 1,08 for euro/USD but hoping for 1,046 or even parity for long euro
  • #19,225
  • May 23, 2015 5:49am May 23, 2015 5:49am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} When we see huge movements as from the 18may I think big fishes give a signal and short together. The insider information is cooperation among the biggest. It must be. What is your prediction abouth the euro? I saw yesterday that you thought many shortrers stopped their positions

Yes, most retail traders went long before the drop. I waited ofr this to happen since last friday as I noted in above postings.

The reason was: surveys showed, that the majority of traders were very bulish about Euro and very bearish about USD. But it was not reflected in their positions they hold, because they were net-short all the time.

My idea was, that they would cover their bleeding short positions as soon as they would be near or at BE.

Seems, this happened on this Friday
  • #19,226
  • May 23, 2015 5:59am May 23, 2015 5:59am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Yes, most retail traders went long before the drop. I waited ofr this to happen since last friday as I noted in above postings. The reason was: surveys showed, that the majority of traders were very bulish about Euro and very bearish about USD. But it was not reflected in their positions they hold, because they were net-short all the time. My idea was, that they would cover their bleeding short positions as soon as they would be near or at BE. Seems, this happened on this Friday
And if the big fishes dont manange to time right We could expect it to og further down to 1.08 over even lower before it turns according to your earlier analysis.
  • #19,227
  • May 23, 2015 6:01am May 23, 2015 6:01am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
ECB's Willful Ignorance: Leaking Central Bank Says Austerity "Compliments" QE
  • #19,228
  • May 23, 2015 6:04am May 23, 2015 6:04am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} We are in difficult area right now. The volume profiles show, that huge positions were build between roughly 1.06 and 1.08 My main scenario is, that we are either in a wave 4 up, with having the wave A of it completed (would call for months long sideways in wide swings), or we have finished this wave 4 (time and price would be already satisfied) and are now down in a developing wave 5, which most likely will go sub-parity. Also there exists the alternative scenario, where we have already bottomed (for intermediate terms (moths to years)...
I agree With you in this. It is diffecult now have we bottomed? Were 1,0460 the bottom?
  • #19,229
  • May 23, 2015 6:06am May 23, 2015 6:06am
Quoting MarianneOslo
What Mario said one year ago whatever it takes was abouth fudamentals. He made a safety wall againt Greece for bailout for the whole eurosone.This was a very important step which made the interest rate decline very sharply. The loan rates for some countries in the eurosone were so high that they were not avaiable to pay their loans. This made the stock market go up and the safety for the euro grew stronger.The problems for the eurosone continied because the euro was too strong to compete With other markets.Thats why the euro had to come down. I...

maybe I would have been successful with my strategie (trying to re-short) higher, but as we know it was Draghi who leaked some confidential information to some hedge funds

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
ECB Blames Leak To Hedge Funds On "Internal Procedural Error"

this lead to the first collapse, the second, when the speach/data were made public
  • #19,230
  • May 23, 2015 6:11am May 23, 2015 6:11am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} You are buying EUR on EU based fundamentals but you are complety discrediting USA fundamentals. You are picking the side with David instead Goliath. 2015/16 EURUSD price drive will not come from Europe, it will come from USA and FED. Even if you are right about your fundamental analysis of EU which i think its not, you can be picking bad trade due to other party of influence on EURUSD price. FED hikes and all your correct reasons go belly up. That is difference between pickng good fundamental trade and a bad one with mixed outcome. Good...

  • #19,231
  • May 23, 2015 6:11am May 23, 2015 6:11am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} maybe I would have been successful with my strategie (trying to re-short) higher, but as we know it was Draghi who leaked some confidential information to some hedge funds {image} ECB Blames Leak To Hedge Funds On "Internal Procedural Error" this lead to the first collapse, the second, when the speach/data were made public
Yes that is right. According to Mario 1,046 is ok 1,14 is not ok. Untill september20 16 i will be between 1,0460 and 1,14 I think
  • #19,232
  • May 23, 2015 6:14am May 23, 2015 6:14am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Relax issue. Should we really bring the mammoths back to life? Scientists a Step Closer to Cloning Siberian Mammoth http://russia-insider.com/en/politic...mammoth/ri7156 Best, D.P.

since I get from time to time climbing gear from Mammut for testing purposes, I would love to see a living Mammoth :-)
  • #19,233
  • May 23, 2015 6:16am May 23, 2015 6:16am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Yes that is right. According to Mario 1,046 is ok 1,14 is not ok.

EU needs the Euro down. Question is: at which point will the FED intervene and driove the Euro up in one way or the other......
  • #19,234
  • May 23, 2015 6:23am May 23, 2015 6:23am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} EU needs the Euro down. Question is: at which point will the FED intervene and driove the Euro up in one way or the other......
I agree but why are they still talking abouth rate hike in the US? They still do and it will be no rate hike I think. The agreement between the Central banks allows the euro to decline at a certain level. Where is this level? could it be 1,06-1,08? They changed their retorik at 1.046. Something happend at both sides at this level so it could be the bottom
Ha a nice day time for training
  • #19,235
  • May 23, 2015 6:23am May 23, 2015 6:23am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} And if the big fishes dont manange to time right We could expect it to og further down to 1.08 over even lower before it turns according to your earlier analysis.

as pointed out earlier with a picture, we have a high volume zone spreading from literally 1.06 to 1.09 with several high volume peaks (POC's).

This zone was only build on the way up from the 1.04x bottom, so it represents fresh money.

We have to wait now and to analyze, what the different fishes will do at the lower side of the distribution.

At the moment, when looking at COT Data, we can see, that the Commercials (the hedgers) are reducing their long position further (they are selling). That is normally a bad sign for bulls, when the Commercials start selling in a downtrend. Now let us wait and see, when their selling has reached a climax and they start to buy again. When they start, buying, it may then again needs some time until price will turn.

Watch COT, and watch sentiment closely.

Check your private mail
  • #19,236
  • May 23, 2015 6:30am May 23, 2015 6:30am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} as pointed out earlier with a picture, we have a high volume zone spreading from literally 1.06 to 1.09 with several high volume peaks (POC's). This zone was only build on the way up from the 1.04x bottom, so it represents fresh money. We have to wait now and to analyze, what the different fishes will do at the lower side of the distribution. At the moment, when looking at COT Data, we can see, that the Commercials (the hedgers) are reducing their long position further (they are selling). That is normally a bad sign for bulls, when the Commercials...

COT data
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.png Size: 140 KB
  • #19,237
  • May 23, 2015 6:37am May 23, 2015 6:37am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} I agree but why are they still talking abouth rate hike in the US? They still do and it will be no rate hike I think. The agreement between the Central banks allows the euro to decline at a certain level. Where is this level? could it be 1,06-1,08? They changed their retorik at 1.046. Something happend at both sides at this level so it could be the bottom Ha a nice day time for training

As explained earlier the last days:

FED is between a plate and a hard rock. On the one side they clearly think that stock markets are in bubbly territory. On the other side they know that the fundamental data are rather weak, not supportive of a hike.

So in my view, they can do two things:


a) hike rate earlier than most think now (June or July), to crash the markets a bit, and in order to be able to reduce the rates later again

b) do nothing but rhetoric - Draghi showed already that that may work for some time


But regardless of which of the two poisons they chose, the market may need to value a rate hike into the price. So predominately the pressure for EU may be to the downside.

When US fundamentals get very poor very quickly and a new QE would come on the table, the picture would change quickly. But I think this option is less likely
  • #19,238
  • May 23, 2015 6:37am May 23, 2015 6:37am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Relax issue. Should we really bring the mammoths back to life? Scientists a Step Closer to Cloning Siberian Mammoth http://russia-insider.com/en/politic...mammoth/ri7156 Best, D.P.
WOW ! I really pity how some of these scientists or even people above these scientists think in these aspects.
The flora and fauna of the present world is becoming extinct at at a alarming rate. Nearly 2000 species of plants and animals become extinct every year. I guess that is not a problem for anyone thinking of cloning mammoths.
The biggest problem facing the animal kingdom is first of all space. secondly the climate changes, thirdly food and water. The depreciation of natural and organic food is already a big problem. When you consider 2000 species disappearing from the face of the world in a year, you can imagine the ecological imbalance which the world is facing and all because of us HUMANS. We destroy their space, we contaminate their water and due to the immense pollution, we change the climatic condition of the world.
For all i feel, in a few decades, there will be not be anything left in this world or maybe Nature itself will find a remedy to push what's left of us, back into the Cave man world, where you have to cultivate and herd for a living. Already the earthquakes, floods and drastic temperature changes is being felt all around the world. Can you imagine, with all these problems the world is facing, you want to bring back extinct huge animals of the far past. If there is a need, then try to bring back the recently extinct animals and plants, so that the current eco balance is maintained.
Phew .. i am done.
STING
  • #19,239
  • May 23, 2015 6:42am May 23, 2015 6:42am
Quoting MarianneOslo
quote=janpec1000;8280488]{quote} You are buying EUR on EU based fundamentals but you are complety discrediting USA fundamentals. You are picking the side with David instead Goliath. 2015/16 EURUSD price drive will not come from Europe, it will come from USA and FED. Even if you are right about your fundamental analysis of EU which i think its not, you can be picking bad trade due to other party of influence on EURUSD price. FED hikes and all your correct reasons go belly up. That is difference between pickng good fundamental trade and a bad one...
Hi Janpec! I have been among thos who are very sceptical to the improvements in the US economy. It improves only With QE, low currency due to investments into lower currency countries. AS I also wrote I think the strong US will damage the US economy.In the future we will se a sharp decline in the USD. AS I said before I think it exist som agreement between the centralbanks to support the economics between the US and Europe. I think we still are there. US are supporting Europe to lower their currency. The diffecult question is are we abouth to turn on this? We have seen several improvements in Europe since may last year but it still will take time. You can see the figures and expectations in Europe showing that. The QE will keep the interst rate low. WE are still there. I also think we will see soon a Stock market correction that will make USD rise. After that it is time for turning. That is why I do not have any lower goal than 1,08 for euro/USD but hoping for 1,046 or even parity for long euro[/quote]


Marianne, even if all is right, it is bad tool for timing of the trades.

Surly, you can play the fundamentals, but would need a SL of several hundreds of pips. That would mean no use of leverage or very low leverage for trading.

As we have seen in EU thread, the die-hard FA traders missed the 1000 pips up from the bottom completely. And this is only one example.
  • #19,240
  • May 23, 2015 6:47am May 23, 2015 6:47am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} We are in difficult area right now. The volume profiles show, that huge positions were build between roughly 1.06 and 1.08 My main scenario is, that we are either in a wave 4 up, with having the wave A of it completed (would call for months long sideways in wide swings), or we have finished this wave 4 (time and price would be already satisfied) and are now down in a developing wave 5, which most likely will go sub-parity. Also there exists the alternative scenario, where we have already bottomed (for intermediate terms (moths to years)...

here you can see a representation of my alternative count, courtesy to Mete on Twitter

https://twitter.com/mtylcnr/status/6...579456/photo/1
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