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  • #8,781
  • May 22, 2015 1:08pm May 22, 2015 1:08pm
I missed a good entry for SPY $213 long puts, have watched it drop steady from a push to $213.5, might've got in for 5-6c. double that now, not gonna chase it, my luck prolly bounce on $213, but watching....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,782
  • May 22, 2015 1:35pm May 22, 2015 1:35pm
trying to sell Jun SPY calls $217/$219 for $0.37, might take $0.35. I want that free theta day....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,783
  • May 22, 2015 1:42pm May 22, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting The Fool
trying to sell Jun SPY calls $217/$219 for $0.37, might take $0.35. I want that free theta day....
filled all at $0.37 & I'm done for the week
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,784
  • May 22, 2015 2:52pm May 22, 2015 2:52pm
I thought we might see some selling at the end of the day today but I didn't think we would see SPY give up $213.00, let's see.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,785
  • May 22, 2015 3:00pm May 22, 2015 3:00pm
Quoting The Fool
hey SDog, I just bought out of all $213 SPY call short spreads for $0.05-$0.08 net gain, I am sick of having to ride theta all the way to the bottom, but glad to get out w/ no loss, my luck of course is now SnP will sell off heavy and I will have left $0.35-$0.40 on the table, but that's trading. I just don't trust the Yellen to not blow bubbles before the holiday. I have SPY $215 shorts for next week, looking better....

well there ya go...still sucks to be me, SPY gonna pin $213 at the very last freakin minute?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,786
  • May 22, 2015 3:04pm May 22, 2015 3:04pm
fine, fuck you too, SnP, I am still Super Bear
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,787
  • May 22, 2015 10:48pm May 22, 2015 10:48pm
Quoting The Fool
watching, if SPY pushes up above $213.50 well, I will sell more call spreads into it.....one of these weeks I am gonna be right on these and not have to sweat them out to the last freakin day
OMG will it ever roll over? I have a nice little pile of super bear SPY spreads. I am moving into where I wanted to go, just trading a few different very liquid items - SPY, IWM, USO, TLT, EWZ, .... a few others, but mostly SPY. I still look around at individual names but it's not my focus.

Below are SPY trades I am in for one account, other accounts are m/l similar...the May5 short $215/$217 calls I got $0.45 for are worth $0.15 today, if we see SPY slide early next week I will buy out of that for $0.05 or so. I need to try to get in some trades for Jun1 and Jun2, already in some of those in other accounts.

I have been ranting about some of the short legs that went right down to the wire (sorry ), but most trades have made money, typically expiring with full credit gained. I need to go back over the tastytrade vids on trade management, think about how to optimize my approach, maximize profits. Looking to up my volume, I'd like to have a set of SPY trades expiring every week - already getting there but need to plan better. Near term goal is ~$1k/week net, overall, and trying to push resources into a non-IRA account that can trade on portfolio margin. That is still a few years away, but I can see it happening.

Might be changing jobs this Summer, will have a much smaller commute time, will make a big difference in my free time and health in general. Things are looking up. I'm counting on a June swoon and I will be on it like stink on a monkey, if it shows...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,788
  • May 22, 2015 11:38pm May 22, 2015 11:38pm
been so long since we've seen anything close to a VIX spike, but we may see one soon - I bet VXX could get back to >$22 pdq when tshtf in June. Jun $21/$21.5 long calls debits $0.06 to make max 5x+
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,789
  • May 23, 2015 1:14pm May 23, 2015 1:14pm
FXE, potential Greek default in the first couple weeks of June, when big debt repayments come due, a binary event, and fiber could stage a 400+ pip move either way by June opex.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,790
  • May 24, 2015 12:32pm May 24, 2015 12:32pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} OMG will it ever roll over? I have a nice little pile of super bear SPY spreads. I am moving into where I wanted to go, just trading a few different very liquid items - SPY, IWM, USO, TLT, EWZ, .... a few others, but mostly SPY. I still look around at individual names but it's not my focus. Below are SPY trades I am in for one account, other accounts are m/l similar...the May5 short $215/$217 calls I got $0.45 for are worth $0.15 today, if we see SPY slide early next week I will buy out of that for $0.05 or so. I need to try to get in some...
Got my TDA account up and running ... . Put on a few earnings plays (all strangles) just to tell myself I did something, but am also gravitating toward the most liquid stuff, rather than focusing on individual underlyings; this will make the money week in and week out (that's my thinking anyhow). The earnings plays are fairly quick and dirty (if they work out), but I would prefer to focus on a few, broad-based instruments rather than diddling around with transient movement in single names .... . Got a firm grasp of trade management with strangles, but that will not generally work with a low vol with SPY, so I need to hone in on how to take advantage of the low vol ... . My guess is calendars that capitalize on vol skew (maybe) ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,791
  • May 24, 2015 1:05pm May 24, 2015 1:05pm
Then again, verts may be easier to manage if you have several placed over multiple expirations ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,792
  • May 24, 2015 1:30pm May 24, 2015 1:30pm
Seems to me that the trade management for short call verts is fairly straightforward (bearish assumption on underlying) ... . Bail at 50% max prof potential; roll for credit and duration if it ain't working out ... .

Unsure of how far to go out on DTE with multiple set-ups on, for example, SPY ... . I assume no more than 60 days or so (with weeklies, that would give you quite a few expirations). I am thinking that you don't want to have too many hanging out there ... . If I let POP% be my guide, the strike prices for several vertical short calls over several different expirations will be quite close to one another, and I could find myself having to roll a bunch of crap at the same time if there is some kind of dramatic, adverse movement ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,793
  • May 24, 2015 1:53pm May 24, 2015 1:53pm
Quoting The Fool
FXE, potential Greek default in the first couple weeks of June, when big debt repayments come due, a binary event, and fiber could stage a 400+ pip move either way by June opex. {image} {image}
Shit. Can't f'in figure out what to do with FXE ... . My long-term bearish assumption is getting in the way ... . Half of me says straddle; the other half says something like a long put calendar spread with the back month farther out than usual to take advantage of vol skew ... . The third half says strangle it with the expectation that one side or the other of the strangle is going to be tested, so you're going to have to roll ... .

The thing I don't like about FXE is that extraordinary market forces (Greek debt repayment timing, etc.) are yanking it this way and that (somewhat disproportionally) on top of the timing of Fed rate hikes ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,794
  • May 24, 2015 2:15pm May 24, 2015 2:15pm
Here's an example of what I would think about setting up with SPY (short call verts):

June 5 W: 214.5/215: 63% pop/.23 cr
June 12 W: 215/214.5: 64% pop/.23 cr
June 19: 215/215.5: 63% pop/.22 cr
June 26 W: 215.5/216: 64% pop/.20 cr
June 30 Q: 216/217: 66% pop/.35 cr
July 2 W: 216/217: 66% pop/.36 cr
July 17: 217/218: 66% pop/.34 cr

(Ain't any weeklies right now for after that ... ). Not sure what the delta is going to look like with this set up ... . May doink around with it using just one contract ... . My guess is that I will have to roll at some point ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,795
  • May 24, 2015 2:44pm May 24, 2015 2:44pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Here's an example of what I would think about setting up with SPY (short call verts): June 5 W: 214.5/215: 63% pop/.23 cr June 12 W: 215/214.5: 64% pop/.23 cr June 19: 215/215.5: 63% pop/.22 cr June 26 W: 215.5/216: 64% pop/.20 cr June 30 Q: 216/217: 66% pop/.35 cr July 2 W: 216/217: 66% pop/.36 cr July 17: 217/218: 66% pop/.34 cr (Ain't any weeklies right now for after that ... ). Not sure what the delta is going to look like with this set up ... . May doink around with it using just one contract ... . My guess is that I will have to roll at some...
Credits ain't huge, but it's defined risk/defined buying power use and you can ramp up profit by increasing contract size ... . More than adequate for my modest goals ... . Naturally, the bearish assumption needs to stay intact ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,796
  • May 24, 2015 2:58pm May 24, 2015 2:58pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} No way, Jose... Looking at NFLX... quite toppy formation, with daily bearish divergence on MACD / RSI... {image} Maybe sell June 645/650 call spread for more than $1.50, and then buy 602.50/600 put spread for less than $0.80... like this {image} Addon: Oh yeah, I forgot - this is going to $1,000 sooner or later, so watch out... for f.... sakes
Bitch is on a tear ... . Got me looking at the damn thing again ... . My notion is to put on a 602.5/600 short put spread and then roll it up if the underlying moves that way ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,797
  • May 24, 2015 3:22pm May 24, 2015 3:22pm
Last thing I'm going to look at today -- USO ... . WTI looks sideways between (just eyeballing here) 58 and 62 (USO between 19.5 and 21.5). With USO short-term range-bound and at low vol, I'm thinking Iron Condor:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USO Iron Condor.jpg Size: 135 KB


... which I hate because of commissions. The other option is to just throw on either the call or the put spread ... . Not sure how I feel about directionality of the underlying ... . I'm mildly favoring the put spread over the call spread ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,798
  • May 24, 2015 3:33pm May 24, 2015 3:33pm
Quoting The Fool
been so long since we've seen anything close to a VIX spike, but we may see one soon - I bet VXX could get back to >$22 pdq when tshtf in June. Jun $21/$21.5 long calls debits $0.06 to make max 5x+ {image} {image}
Liking that VIX play ... . May go slightly more high prob, though ... 20.5/21 ... . We'll see what Tuesday brings ... . Got a couple of small crap piles on my plate that are probably the result of thin Friday markets -- a couple tested sides of strangles that I may have to dick with (YOKU, breached call; VOD, same dealio).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,799
  • May 24, 2015 3:36pm May 24, 2015 3:36pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Here's an example of what I would think about setting up with SPY (short call verts): June 5 W: 214.5/215: 63% pop/.23 cr June 12 W: 215/214.5: 64% pop/.23 cr June 19: 215/215.5: 63% pop/.22 cr June 26 W: 215.5/216: 64% pop/.20 cr June 30 Q: 216/217: 66% pop/.35 cr July 2 W: 216/217: 66% pop/.36 cr July 17: 217/218: 66% pop/.34 cr (Ain't any weeklies right now for after that ... ). Not sure what the delta is going to look like with this set up ... . May doink around with it using just one contract ... . My guess is that I will have to roll at some...
I showed above SPY call spreads I am in, looking for more always as usual, I am looking these days no less than 20 dte, but I will check Tues on the Jun2 calls, so by then that would be 17 dte. Also, I am usually looking around 20-25 deltas for the short leg. So, as of now, I would try Jun2 short $216/$218 for $0.35. I don't usually go wider than $2 and I don't like going less than $0.30 credit.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,800
  • May 24, 2015 3:36pm May 24, 2015 3:36pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Last thing I'm going to look at today -- USO ... . WTI looks sideways between (just eyeballing here) 58 and 62 (USO between 19.5 and 21.5). With USO short-term range-bound and at low vol, I'm thinking Iron Condor: {image} ... which I hate because of commissions. The other option is to just throw on either the call or the put spread ... . Not sure how I feel about directionality of the underlying ... . I'm mildly favoring the put spread over the call spread ... .
Could probs narrow that spread up a bit for an IC, too ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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