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PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

  • #41
  • May 21, 2015 3:17pm May 21, 2015 3:17pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} ....Please see the registrar in the lobby to sign up for this class. There is no tuition, but you must bring your own computers,....the one in front of you and the one on sitting on your shoulders. -tah
The registrar
  • #42
  • Edited 3:38pm May 21, 2015 3:25pm | Edited 3:38pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} USDJPY Comment: There might be a potential H&S formation on H1. The price consolidating above the whole level- PVSRA indication for short. The chart included in the old thread for now..
USDJPY

Yes. From the current price the H&S target is 70+ pips lower. But, what if the MMs work the price up ahead of, or during the series of JPY high impact releases. It could turn out to be 100+ pips!

I keep thinking that if a lot of traders are anticipating moves lower from the JPY pairs, best way the MMs are going to find liquidity for their own shorts once they complete the filling of SM shorts, is to spike the price - stop hunt - those that have been entering the market on the short side, including the shorts of SM the MMs may have been filling. In such a case, I can foresee a stop hunt easily going 25+ pips beyond whatever highs the MMs previously worked the price up to.

If that happens, it won't do the H&S pattern any good, as it would invalidate it. But at the same time it would leave no doubt of bearish intentions which, eventually, will take the price on a bear run for profits.
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  • #43
  • May 21, 2015 3:31pm May 21, 2015 3:31pm
Quoting traderathome
Dear Gals and Guys, Fellow Retail Traders All, This thread is titled "PVSRA". It stands for Price, Volume, S&R Analysis,......PVSRA. I have just opened this thread and much is to follow, but for now I have opened this to reserve the title name. I have much work to do here to get things set up. Please be patient as this first post will undergo many changes, including attachments. But, we are off to a start now, even though I may still be posting on the other thread for a while longer. This is a new beginning, but not just for me. It is for all of...
May the Green Pips be with us!
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #44
  • May 21, 2015 3:48pm May 21, 2015 3:48pm
It is the time to login and register to PVSRA, special thanks to prof TAH for his endless effort.
  • #45
  • May 21, 2015 4:40pm May 21, 2015 4:40pm
So, You Don't Think MMs Control Price?

Well then, take a look at the two hourly TFs on this chart. Both are close in volume. They are far apart in spread! Why? The MMs control how far and how fast price moves. They, and no one else, determine the timing, the direction, the distance and the speed of price moves. They will move price quickly when it serves them to do so. They will halt a move and force price to remain in a range when it serves them to do so. Traders have to trade at the prices the MMs have the price at! Or, traders can learn how the market really works, and be patient. Think about that. It is part of the puzzle that skill with PVSRA can help solve.

-tah
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  • #46
  • May 21, 2015 5:14pm May 21, 2015 5:14pm
It's about time TAH. As always will continue to follow your great ideas.
  • #47
  • May 21, 2015 6:41pm May 21, 2015 6:41pm
I'm subscribed. My big interest here
MAKE SURE you still can TRADE tomorrow
  • #48
  • May 21, 2015 7:51pm May 21, 2015 7:51pm
Quoting traderathome
So, You Don't Think MMs Control Price? Well then, take a look at the two hourly TFs on this chart. Both are close in volume. They are far apart in spread! Why? The MMs control how far and how fast price moves. They, and no one else, determine the timing, the direction, the distance and the speed of price moves. They will move price quickly when it serves them to do so. They will halt a move and force price to remain in a range when it serves them to do so. Traders have to trade at the prices the MMs have the price at! Or, traders can learn how the...
Nice catch Tah. Yes, clearly on a HTF down trend, with clearly a bear flag created, which clearly creates a lot of short liquidity. Trade with the trend? Not so much here. They load up their Longs until the supply is wiped out. This is not retail demand, this is MM's demand, with their bottomless pockets. Retail gets crushed while big players win. Now that they took everyone's shorts, they are in good profit, and ready to take profit in this consolidation area (unloading their longs), while deciding what to do to profit again. The cycle repeats. It's easy when you think about HOW they will profit. 95% of retail traders lose while the Banks stats show record making profits. Only a view such as this can reveal how they won this battle, which with high certainty, they did.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #49
  • May 21, 2015 8:13pm May 21, 2015 8:13pm
NZDUSD

We have multiple signs of bulls here.

1. Price has broken high the trend line.
2. Bullish PA wave on the breakout.
3. Notable increase in volume as price rose from below the whole number on the 3rd leg of the PA breakout wave.

There might be a retrace sometime today, which would afford maybe a better entry than current. And let's not forget the releases, which could bring a stop hunt spike downwards.
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  • #50
  • May 21, 2015 10:20pm May 21, 2015 10:20pm
CADJPY Long Trade based on PVSRA

  1. Fake downside break to create short liquidity for loading longs below whole number SR
  2. Trendline break and re-test

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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #51
  • May 21, 2015 11:08pm May 21, 2015 11:08pm
GBPUSD Long trade possible?

Based on accumulation as shown..a possible outbreak to continue up?

Any comment
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  • #52
  • May 22, 2015 1:36am May 22, 2015 1:36am
Thanks Tah for your detailed answer. I made a mistake when asking the question, I wanted to ask "what would be the possible scenarios for shorts". But anyway got the answer from your comment. Yes, I also believe that there no way to trade mechanical in the market.
One more question: how far can MMs go against there built postions?
Would be really grateful for your answer.
  • #53
  • May 22, 2015 1:55am May 22, 2015 1:55am
Quoting traderathome
NZDUSD We have multiple signs of bulls here. 1. Price has broken high the trend line. 2. Bullish PA wave on the breakout. 3. Notable increase in volume as price rose from below the whole number on the 3rd leg of the PA breakout wave. There might be a retrace sometime today, which would afford maybe a better entry than current. And let's not forget the releases, which could bring a stop hunt spike downwards. {image}
On this trade for the past 12 hours, seems to be ranging for the last 4 hours.
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  • #54
  • May 22, 2015 3:51am May 22, 2015 3:51am
UERO/GBP long trade open - closed
This entry based PVSRA on M15 TF. Then I closed while the price hit the TL and consolidation area on H1. Other consideration, this up moving is temporary cz on bigger TF (H4, D1) this EG has potentialy to pullback after break the previous support below half level 71.500 - whole level 71.000.
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #55
  • May 22, 2015 4:19am May 22, 2015 4:19am
Quoting Mauro-J
UERO/GBP long trade open - closed This entry based PVSRA on M15 TF. Then I closed while the price hit the TL and consolidation area on H1. Other consideration, this up moving is temporary cz on bigger TF (H4, D1) this EG has potentialy to pullback after break the previous support below half level 71.500 - whole level 71.000. {image} {image} {image}
EURO/GBP...
For me, its looks like a pullback before market fall to the lows.
On D1 TF (pic#1), price falls and break the previous support from above half number 0.71500 then falls through the whole number 0.71000. And now we can see that the price moving up again above whole number; maybe the robber (MMs) from UK would utilize this pullback on LS to fill more shorts order above whole number before the market falls to the lower level; 0.702xx has potential as lows level if this up movement really is a pullback. But, if the price continue his up movement after break TL on H1 - H4 drawed, RDH could be the next highs (above half number 0.71500).
In this case, i think its important to notice how the price react on recent level area. If the price falls and close below TL with nice activity (at least on H1 TF), it could be the price will continue his falling to the lows according the big picture.
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"Bulls make money, Bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered"
  • #56
  • May 22, 2015 4:31am May 22, 2015 4:31am
Quoting Mauro-J
{quote} EURO/GBP... For me, its looks like a pullback before market fall to the lows. On D1 TF (pic#1), price falls and break the previous support from above half number 0.71500 then falls through the whole number 0.71000. And now we can see that the price moving up again above whole number; maybe the robber (MMs) from UK would utilize this pullback on LS to fill more shorts order above whole number before the market falls to the lower level; 0.702xx has potential as lows level if this up movement really is a pullback. But, if the price continue...
Mauro-J: you are making GREAT analysis, its very helpful to me, because when somebody write an analysis step-by-step, its so much easy for begginers see important things in it, I can learn a lot from you and Im really thankful .. hoping, that you will continue in it for a long time

(sorry for bad english)

and to put some screen in play - tight SLs was always been my problem
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  • #57
  • May 22, 2015 5:18am May 22, 2015 5:18am
Hello,

Long time lurker, new poster. Thought I'd try sharing.

EUR/AUD - Closed long order. Lots of Activity below the 1.41 area set TP at RDL but closed too early for fear of losing my winnings. +1281 pips

Thank you for sharing this wonderful system and I'm learning alot from your discussions. Hope I can contribute as well someday.
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  • #58
  • May 22, 2015 5:56am May 22, 2015 5:56am
I know it might sound strange, but I heard it in numerous times "Volume Analysis....." in spot market is ; but I see here in this thread u kind use it pretty nicely!
Please tell me what is your opinion on his one? Is indeed a usable information? I think that the volume from the platform directly depends from the broker information.

Thx,
Cris
  • #59
  • May 22, 2015 6:33am May 22, 2015 6:33am
Quoting traderathome
NZDUSD We have multiple signs of bulls here. 1. Price has broken high the trend line. 2. Bullish PA wave on the breakout. 3. Notable increase in volume as price rose from below the whole number on the 3rd leg of the PA breakout wave. There might be a retrace sometime today, which would afford maybe a better entry than current. And let's not forget the releases, which could bring a stop hunt spike downwards. {image}
NZDUSD

As we approach the USD releases, the MMs are whacking the price. I interpret this as bullish. They might or might not eventually take it back below the half number level. A well timed stop hunt on longs spike down by the MMs might do it. We can never know.
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  • #60
  • May 22, 2015 6:44am May 22, 2015 6:44am
Quoting bodring
Thanks Tah for your detailed answer. I made a mistake when asking the question, I wanted to ask "what would be the possible scenarios for shorts". But anyway got the answer from your comment. Yes, I also believe that there no way to trade mechanical in the market. One more question: how far can MMs go against there built postions? Would be really grateful for your answer.
Just How Far?

bodring,

There is a saying in the market. It goes like this....."SM can be wrong longer than anyone else." It is just that most people do not know the hidden true meaning of this. It means that the MMs (the smartest SM of them all!) can force manipulate the price in the direction they want it to go for as long as they want to (excluding central bank intervention, of course), until they have squeezed out most everyone else, before they force reverse the price and run it.

Exactly how far? Why don't you write a cordial letter to the Robber Bank MMs and see what their response is?

-tah
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