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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #19,061
  • May 16, 2015 8:15am May 16, 2015 8:15am
Quoting andexQ
EU Possibly something like this: {image}
short term

for me... below 1.1145.. invalidates 1.160x
  • #19,062
  • May 16, 2015 8:20am May 16, 2015 8:20am
Quoting andexQ
EU Possibly something like this: {image}

yeaks - gives me headaches
  • #19,063
  • May 16, 2015 8:40am May 16, 2015 8:40am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Marianne, I think you make a fault in interpreting the volume at 1.1364 This is no fresh volume, so to say. It was traded at the way down to the bottom mainly. On the following three charts you can see what I mean: chart 1: all the volume traded on the swing down from 1.39x top to the low at 1.04x and back up to today chart 2: only the volume on the way down from the 1.39x top to the 1.04x low chart 3: only the volume on the way up from the 1.04x low The red arrows on the charts show the direction of collection of the volume Now you can...

See it more clearly now but we also see th low volume on the way down how many pecentage it went further before it stopped and turned. I am one that belive we can have QE4 but not yet before this I expect a market correction With a USD rise. It is also may usually ae month for stock market correction(sell in may and og away) So in you opinium the big money are outside waiting.
  • #19,064
  • May 16, 2015 8:42am May 16, 2015 8:42am
Quoting chess king
{quote} short term for me... below 1.1145.. invalidates 1.160x
Quoting infinitus
{quote} yeaks - gives me headaches

LOL, It just a road... could be off road too.
  • #19,065
  • May 16, 2015 9:09am May 16, 2015 9:09am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} equivolume candle analysis 240min {image} 60min {image} 15min {image} 5min {image} 1min {image}
Thank you that sums it up. Btw this eq volume, is this the same as delta volume? Seems like it.
  • #19,066
  • May 16, 2015 9:10am May 16, 2015 9:10am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} yeaks - gives me headaches
One thing worth to note is USD haven't record climax that its need to reverse, so i think Upside still open for EU..
  • #19,067
  • May 16, 2015 9:21am May 16, 2015 9:21am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} One thing worth to note is USD haven't record climax that its need to reverse, so i think Upside still open for EU..
Exactly, plus dollar pairs have nothing to lean on as bottom (USDCHF, USDNOK, EURUSD.
http://prntscr.com/75uoi6
http://prntscr.com/75upnk
http://prntscr.com/75uqps

For UCAD and USDJPY is too early to tell. UCAD has short term bulls in control, and could deliver possible bottom atm, USDJPY is just a 118.5 defense mess bulls are really doing job down there even with dollar bears pressing hard so no point to speculate for any lower targets than 118.5 atm.
  • #19,068
  • May 16, 2015 9:35am May 16, 2015 9:35am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Thank you that sums it up. Btw this eq volume, is this the same as delta volume? Seems like it.

Hi Jan,

no, it is not the same. Equivolume candles have same width when volume is the same. Wider candles mean more volume. The height of the candle reflects the pip movement.


Delta candles are described here very good:


https://www.multicharts.com/trading-...p/Volume_Delta
  • #19,069
  • May 16, 2015 9:43am May 16, 2015 9:43am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Exactly, plus dollar pairs have nothing to lean on as bottom (USDCHF, USDNOK, EURUSD. http://prntscr.com/75uoi6 http://prntscr.com/75upnk http://prntscr.com/75uqps For UCAD and USDJPY is too early to tell. UCAD has short term bulls in control, and could deliver possible bottom atm, USDJPY is just a 118.5 defense mess bulls are really doing job down there even with dollar bears pressing hard so no point to speculate for any lower targets than 118.5 atm.


look at the following chart with equivolume candles


On the very bottom of the chart there is nowhere selling climax -I think it is a myth, that tops and bottoms are accompanied by buying and selling climaxes everytime.

Even on the very tops and bottoms, trading is an auctioning process, where price/volume builds a Gaussian like distribution. Sometimes more, sometimes less skewed to one side or the other
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,070
  • May 16, 2015 9:45am May 16, 2015 9:45am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} {quote} LOL, It just a road... could be off road too.

If it goes that high I have to wear my crampons the whole day
  • #19,071
  • May 16, 2015 9:53am May 16, 2015 9:53am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} look at the following chart with equivolume candles On the very bottom of the chart there is nowhere selling climax -I think it is a myth, that tops and bottoms are accompanied by buying and selling climaxes everytime. Even on the very tops and bottoms, trading is an auctioning process, where price/volume builds a Gaussian like distribution. Sometimes more, sometimes less skewed to one side or the other {image}


look at this chart


normally people say: a bottom comes with a selling climax, a to with a buying climax


now I show you 4 quick examples, where it was vice versa

the top was build by selling climax, and the bottom by buying climax
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,072
  • Edited 10:35am May 16, 2015 10:24am | Edited 10:35am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} look at the following chart with equivolume candles On the very bottom of the chart there is nowhere selling climax -I think it is a myth, that tops and bottoms are accompanied by buying and selling climaxes everytime. Even on the very tops and bottoms, trading is an auctioning process, where price/volume builds a Gaussian like distribution. Sometimes more, sometimes less skewed to one side or the other {image}
Couldnt agree more. Btw my reference as you can see was not to volume, but structures itself. I only look at PA and structures not volume to determine bottoming or toping, becouse in my view volume is not very reliable to find them. I know becouse i traded volume and from my experiance it is 50 50, 60-40, 40-60 info, somethimes gives more than PA does, but its not frequent enough to have it there for bottom finding, and somethimes it gives oposite of PA and yet its wrong. Volume tells good info here and there but it depends where and how you use it, traditional VSA methods i find it not usefull much, but ye i wouldnt have it for bottoms and tops. For example with volume one would look for stopping volume to look for bottom or look for second strong retest, the problem is that both of those cases have guess in it that this last volume that landed in demand zone (for bottom) was mostly bullish ,which actually if you look order flow with futures (DOM) it is not true. It is 50 50 info, becouse many time its going to be massive shorts trapped under there, or big orders trying to push, but being absorbed, which later can serve as pull down for bulls, so thats why i stoped used volume for bottom or top finding its not reliable enough. Simply using oposite side of market to identify is better, eg for bottom you look for weakness on bear side to identify possible bounce, and possible bounce further identifies possible bottom as long as bounce is strong.
What i dont like from volume trading in terms of acumulation is that, it is too much of guessing attemtp into it to consider bottoms, tops or bounces. High volume on test of zone is considered bounce, but how can one knows it is not MMs pressing with oposite orders into it that might or might not get trapped latter. In many cases it is so which later results in break. So thats why for volume info i preffer rather pressing info, for example if you have candle making decent distance and it has heavy volume like candle we have now on EU that is much better info, becouse it is not needed to guess what the impact will be. We know bulls pressed and they did hard, while traveling rather trough lower volume, non supply zones.

Just some examples to get the point going:
http://prntscr.com/75v54a
http://prntscr.com/75v5t4
http://prntscr.com/75v7al
http://prntscr.com/75v7y2
http://prntscr.com/75v8wb
http://prntscr.com/75vad7
http://prntscr.com/75vaoh
http://prntscr.com/75vcia
http://prntscr.com/75vdcd

Didnt do the count but probably 80% of bottoms or more have no climaxes in them. Its all about current-nearby supdem going on/volume. Or simply said its all about what is happening to your neighbour, not what is happening to whole city to get the things going.
  • #19,073
  • May 16, 2015 10:27am May 16, 2015 10:27am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} look at this chart normally people say: a bottom comes with a selling climax, a to with a buying climax now I show you 4 quick examples, where it was vice versa the top was build by selling climax, and the bottom by buying climax {image}
What you showed here is exactly how i trade bottoms and tops, i look from oposite side of what most traders do, especially VSA traders. Dont look for bear stopping volume on possible bottom, rather look for bull strenght and look what bulls do, and they also need to do better than bears. The reason is very simple why doing so...it is much more reliable. Stopping volume of bears might have bulls in it (considered stoping) or it might not have. Its guess game becouse even with proper delta volume its not very clear to separate bulls and bears from volume, while with looking at oposite leg, looking at what bulls do and how strong can they push and their volume its more clear. Strong volume pushed from bottom in formation on bull leg is 90% time going to be bulls doing it, not hidden selling (becouse and especially if last printed supply is weak- as usually bears dont defend weak zones strongly, nor do the bulls doing other way around), that is fact proven by 1000s of historical examples.
  • #19,074
  • May 16, 2015 12:39pm May 16, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Hathor, regarding the positioning of the retail crowd: I published an EW analysis a few minutes back. There you can read all about. here is my conclusion: So the question for me is: why are the retail crowd still short, when their sentiment is so bullish? Well, maybe it is "hope springs eternal", and they are hanging onto their losing positions in the hope to get them at least near BE again. So when price will drop from this levels, they will cover their shorts very soon, and go long. Then they might be trapped again, when price keeps...

Sir,

Reading your analysis makes me think that you know way too much to be a trader. You are an institution in that frame of yours. I think someone should clone you.. Simply amazing !!!
STING
  • #19,075
  • May 16, 2015 1:15pm May 16, 2015 1:15pm
Quoting chess king
E/U...next week ? 1.135x ... I think that can achieve this target...or lower but I am conservative. and I'm here in descending targets. up targets!... ...I was not very surprised if I saw..1.160x.. sorry ...graphs later
4H ..chart
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  • #19,076
  • May 16, 2015 1:39pm May 16, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Couldnt agree more. Btw my reference as you can see was not to volume, but structures itself. I only look at PA and structures not volume to determine bottoming or toping, becouse in my view volume is not very reliable to find them. I know becouse i traded volume and from my experiance it is 50 50, 60-40, 40-60 info, somethimes gives more than PA does, but its not frequent enough to have it there for bottom finding, and somethimes it gives oposite of PA and yet its wrong. Volume tells good info here and there but it depends where and how...


great examples, Jan, thank you very much


maybe some time a few of us will write a book together:


Myth busting in trading
  • #19,077
  • May 16, 2015 1:41pm May 16, 2015 1:41pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} What you showed here is exactly how i trade bottoms and tops, i look from oposite side of what most traders do, especially VSA traders. Dont look for bear stopping volume on possible bottom, rather look for bull strenght and look what bulls do, and they also need to do better than bears. The reason is very simple why doing so...it is much more reliable. Stopping volume of bears might have bulls in it (considered stoping) or it might not have. Its guess game becouse even with proper delta volume its not very clear to separate bulls and bears...

great lecturing today - that is really fun to read all this stuff
  • #19,078
  • May 16, 2015 1:48pm May 16, 2015 1:48pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Sir, Reading your analysis makes me think that you know way too much to be a trader. You are an institution in that frame of yours. I think someone should clone you.. Simply amazing !!!





most people have a hard time to bear with me. Will not think what will happen when there are many clones of me


Hahah, me and institution


I am nobody. Have ups and downs. Make analysis and try to trade that. But often enough the enemy is in myself and I go against my own analysis. Stupid, isn't it?
  • #19,079
  • May 16, 2015 2:03pm May 16, 2015 2:03pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} most people have a hard time to bear with me. Will not think what will happen when there are many clones of me Hahah, me and institution I am nobody. Have ups and downs. Make analysis and try to trade that. But often enough the enemy is in myself and I go against my own analysis. Stupid, isn't it?


I definetly know we defeat FOREX.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,080
  • May 16, 2015 2:17pm May 16, 2015 2:17pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Couldnt agree more. Btw my reference as you can see was not to volume, but structures itself. I only look at PA and structures not volume to determine bottoming or toping, becouse in my view volume is not very reliable to find them. I know becouse i traded volume and from my experiance it is 50 50, 60-40, 40-60 info, somethimes gives more than PA does, but its not frequent enough to have it there for bottom finding, and somethimes it gives oposite of PA and yet its wrong. Volume tells good info here and there but it depends where and how...


D.P.
Hunting High and Low
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