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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #19,041
  • May 16, 2015 1:34am May 16, 2015 1:34am
GBP / USD possible doubletop 4h chart ~ tweezer top daily
EUR / GBP did many longs last week currently flat - bias is long on this pair
EUR / USD my bias is sideways to rising, hesitating to short here, price moved up in the dry market at the end of US session.

meine 2 Groschen
just do it
  • #19,042
  • May 16, 2015 2:32am May 16, 2015 2:32am
05.16.2015 EURUSD short term count



enjoy
  • #19,043
  • May 16, 2015 2:39am May 16, 2015 2:39am
Hi Markus!
I was looking at the volume indicatore and it it right thatit topped at 11364? Had problems with understanding it
  • #19,044
  • May 16, 2015 2:43am May 16, 2015 2:43am
Quoting thodie
GBP / USD possible doubletop 4h chart ~ tweezer top daily EUR / GBP did many longs last week currently flat - bias is long on this pair EUR / USD my bias is sideways to rising, hesitating to short here, price moved up in the dry market at the end of US session. meine 2 Groschen


Ich will die Groschen wieder haben - das waren noch Zeiten


in EU price went up under really huge volume, not only in Dukascopy or FXCM, but also in Future market (/6E)

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or here with equivolume candles (last 4 weeks)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,045
  • May 16, 2015 2:55am May 16, 2015 2:55am
Quoting MarianneOslo
Hi Markus! I was looking at the volume indicatore and it it right thatit topped at 11364? Had problems with understanding it

Hi Marianne,


hope you have a nice weekend.


The volume indicator shows volume over time. That means: you specify a period of time, and each volume traded is attributed to the price traded.

The chart you are referring to shows part of the movement/volume from the swings between the 399x high and up to today.


In the chart in this posting you can see the whole picture:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...43#post8264343


blue is the volume at Dukascopy, green is the volume from the /6E EURUSD future. You can see that @ 1.1364 there is a huge volume peak (POC, or point of control).

Price is almost ever attracted to this high volume areas. It is clear: price has traded a lot in the past there, so there is a lot of supply and demand (or the meat, so to say).

Unlike low volume zones, where price either gets a quick rejection or price overjumps it quickly, price in high volume zones does spent far more time in form of consolidating behavior or grinding price action. Often times we also can see, that when price comes back to a high volume zone, that it tries out the outer limits of the distribution.



Hope that helps. If not, ask again :-)
  • #19,046
  • May 16, 2015 3:04am May 16, 2015 3:04am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Ich will die Groschen wieder haben - das waren noch Zeiten in EU price went up under really huge volume, not only in Dukascopy or FXCM, but also in Future market (/6E) {image} or here with equivolume candles (last 4 weeks) {image}
ja leider gibs die nicht mehr neu, man kann aber seine Bestände immer noch mit alten Schillingen aus edlem Metall auffüllen.

thank you wasn´t aware of the high volumes this friday.
just do it
  • #19,047
  • May 16, 2015 3:15am May 16, 2015 3:15am
Quoting hathor
What do you think? On my signal system: - there were mild Weekly short signal, that has been fulfilled with the bearish Daily (Monday) candle. - there were a mild Daily short signal at the close of Thursday, which has been fulfilled with the Friday fall. - On Friday the market closed with a confirmed H4 sell signal, so visiting lower levels has to happen, but it not means it can't rise first after opening. Short:long ratio: - "The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.34 as 30% of traders are long." - This means there are too...

Hi Hathor,

regarding the positioning of the retail crowd:

I published an EW analysis a few minutes back. There you can read all about.


here is my conclusion:

So the question for me is: why are the retail crowd still short, when their sentiment is so bullish?
Well, maybe it is "hope springs eternal", and they are hanging onto their losing positions in the hope to get them at least near BE again. So when price will drop from this levels, they will cover their shorts very soon, and go long. Then they might be trapped again, when price keeps on going lower many hundreds of pips.



I do not thing, that the big fishes really care where the retail crowd is positioned. Both are mainly trend followers. That means: at the extreme points of movements they have the largest positions in the wrong direction.

As some studies show, the retail crowed is not bad with getting the direction right. They are fairly often right at the MAJOR turning points. But it is interesting to look at what they do after that:

the retail crowd is quick in taking tiny gains from the good positioning, and then they suddenly turn counter-trend and will lose nearly everything they earned beforehand.


As in my EW analysis explained:

this behavior might be the reason for the retail crowed very bullish stance toward EUR (and more bearish stance toward USD), and at the same time holding huge short positions.

When I am right, we will see them covering their short positions very soon when price drops, and going long.


Regarding the next months in EURUSD:


I still think that the US is not really able to hike rates.

We may end up in a months long very wide range zone between 1.15 and 1.05.

What we know is, that we are now at a major resistance shelf. Common sense would forbid longing here.


From an EW point of view we have mainly two scenarios:

A) my main count: we are waiting for a wave 5 down

B) the 5 waves down are already in place, and we are now up, and as it seems in a corrective wave (so could be a major wave 2 or a major wave B or X)


In scenario A the movement up would ideally stop here now

In scenario B the resistance shelf around 1.2250-1.25/6 comes to mind as overall target
  • #19,048
  • May 16, 2015 3:18am May 16, 2015 3:18am
Quoting thodie
{quote} ja leider gibs die nicht mehr neu, man kann aber seine Bestnde immer noch mit alten Schillingen aus edlem Metall auffllen. thank you wasnt aware of the high volumes this friday.

always put a volume indicator on your charts

it is proofed:

tick-volume is a proxy for real volume with an accuracy of above 90% (should be enough for trading)

Dukascopy and FXCM offer real volume of their clients

/6E (Euro future) offers real volume, and the future markets in Forex are getting bigger and bigger
  • #19,049
  • May 16, 2015 3:22am May 16, 2015 3:22am
Quoting hathor
What do you think? On my signal system: - there were mild Weekly short signal, that has been fulfilled with the bearish Daily (Monday) candle. - there were a mild Daily short signal at the close of Thursday, which has been fulfilled with the Friday fall. - On Friday the market closed with a confirmed H4 sell signal, so visiting lower levels has to happen, but it not means it can't rise first after opening. Short:long ratio: - "The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.34 as 30% of traders are long." - This means there are too...

again regarding the 1.20


By looking at the movement from the very bottom, I think the ABC-flat (up) scenario has the highest merits.

I could be wrong, but my belief is, that we have to drop first at least towards the 1.10 zone to "recharge" buying momentum in order to reach escape velocity, so to say, for the 1.136 POC
  • #19,050
  • May 16, 2015 3:32am May 16, 2015 3:32am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Hmm...so the sentiment is rising exponentially (or even harder) with every pip... While it stopped at near ~1.0 (very though psychological level), even when it fell from 1.2->1.1 and under..

as I say:

retail crowd is kind of manic-depressive


in German we say: himmelhoch jauchzend, zu tode betrübt (on top of the world, or in the depths of despair) (all within a minute LOL)


I think we have to research this more:



I mean:

a) how is the retail crowd positioned at turning points

b) how is their mood at turning points


As we can see now: it is not in the same direction. Is this schizophrenic behaviour present at each turning point, or only the extreme turning points?

What does cause this behaviour?



Question for D.P.:

do you have another student who needs work for his/her dissertation?
  • #19,051
  • May 16, 2015 3:44am May 16, 2015 3:44am
Quoting infinitus
05.16.2015 EURUSD short term count enjoy

also fine EW analysis on this page:


they have the triangle count in the moiddle of the wave I described in my analysis


http://elliottchart.com/2015/05/14/eurusd-73/
  • #19,052
  • May 16, 2015 4:12am May 16, 2015 4:12am
Quoting infinitus
{quote}Question for D.P.: do you have another student who needs work for his/her dissertation?
Markus, you do not believe it.

Just right that moment you published your request, one student came to me and asked if I had something to program for his work.
it is misterious indeed.

Write the subject by mail.
Let us discuss.

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,053
  • May 16, 2015 4:18am May 16, 2015 4:18am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} also fine EW analysis on this page: they have the triangle count in the moiddle of the wave I described in my analysis http://elliottchart.com/2015/05/14/eurusd-73/
Nice analysis there for EU, C wave i like it. It also goes along with volume analysis, we had strong up climb volume wise, and once it hit the supply shorts just vanished after it, altough it is needed to point out that it was end of Friday session, but still non the less, structure is paved for road higher. As for candles and their volume ,for example on such large EU candle that goes from demand zone straight into supply i always check on lower TF so that its properly separatred volume of what was actual buying and once it first hit supply that candle where and what sellers said. But in general it usually doesnt make difference.
  • #19,054
  • May 16, 2015 4:35am May 16, 2015 4:35am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Nice analysis there for EU, C wave i like it. It also goes along with volume analysis, we had strong up climb volume wise, and once it hit the supply shorts just vanished after it, altough it is needed to point out that it was end of Friday session, but still non the less, structure is paved for road higher. As for candles and their volume ,for example on such large EU candle that goes from demand zone straight into supply i always check on lower TF so that its properly separatred volume of what was actual buying and once it first hit supply...


equivolume candle analysis

240min
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60min
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15min
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5min
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1min
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  • #19,055
  • Edited 5:42am May 16, 2015 5:01am | Edited 5:42am
Hi Markus Thanks for explaining
Your point from above


#here is my conclusion:

So the question for me is: why are the retail crowd still short, when their sentiment is so bullish?
Well, maybe it is "hope springs eternal", and they are hanging onto their losing positions in the hope to get them at least near BE again. So when price will drop from this levels, they will cover their shorts very soon, and go long. Then they might be trapped again, when price keeps on going lower many hundreds of pips.#

The computer trying to find the level of psycologial of where the ceowd is turining and as you decribe is just whats happens. I feel the market is manipulated now, It hasent really turned but they have to change the mind of all the short that it has bottomed. The question is wheter we are at this level now?

In your opinion the huge volume indicate a turning point but the huge volume could also be big money turning their position to short or short squeeze.
Are the big money still short?


The second queston is the rate hike in the US. WE both seem to agrre that it will be no rate hike in the US n the near future. This should indicate a lower USD. The reason why I stil belive in a higher USD is I am expecting a Stock market correction which will make USD the safe heaven currency. The yhird apect is that ECB will not allow the euro to rise too quick or this will stop the beinning imrovements of the eurosone.
  • #19,056
  • May 16, 2015 5:22am May 16, 2015 5:22am
here is my view on G/U from thursday:

http://abload.de/img/19ku9v.png

fridays priceaction fits good to this view.
fibs are those from the last bing swing.
just do it
  • #19,057
  • May 16, 2015 5:56am May 16, 2015 5:56am
Quoting MarianneOslo
Hi Markus Thanks for explaining Your point from above #here is my conclusion: So the question for me is: why are the retail crowd still short, when their sentiment is so bullish? Well, maybe it is "hope springs eternal", and they are hanging onto their losing positions in the hope to get them at least near BE again. So when price will drop from this levels, they will cover their shorts very soon, and go long. Then they might be trapped again, when price keeps on going lower many hundreds of pips.# The computer trying to find the level of psycologial...

Hi Marianne,

I think you make a fault in interpreting the volume at 1.1364

This is no fresh volume, so to say. It was traded at the way down to the bottom mainly.


On the following three charts you can see what I mean:


chart 1:

all the volume traded on the swing down from 1.39x top to the low at 1.04x and back up to today



chart 2:

only the volume on the way down from the 1.39x top to the 1.04x low


chart 3:

only the volume on the way up from the 1.04x low

The red arrows on the charts show the direction of collection of the volume


Now you can clearly see, that the 1.1364 POC was created on the way down. On the way up, the huge high volume area between roughly 1.05 and 1.10 was created.

So far, not much volume has been traded in the last days above 1.1300


That may be a sign that the rally is running out of steam

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Regarding the big money:

in my EW analysis there was also analysis of the COT report. The large speculators have reduced their short positions (per the data from last tuesday). This last week they may have reduced further, since they are simply trend followers.


Regarding the stock market correction:

most of the people, at least most of the Elliotticans, wait for it to happen since years. When the US economy is so bad now, that a rate hike is not possible, people may fall again in the modus that bad news is good news and will hope for further QE or generally speaking easy money.

In this case you will see rising stock markets accompanied by weakening USD.


Since in the meanwhile the FED itself things, that stockmarkets are overvalued now, but may not be able to hike rates, they maybe will do all this verbal stuff without hiking. That may lead to a prolonged sideways movement in the market with a wide swinnging area between 1.15-1.10-1.05
  • #19,058
  • May 16, 2015 5:57am May 16, 2015 5:57am
Quoting thodie
here is my view on G/U from thursday: {image} fridays priceaction fits good to this view. fibs are those from the last bing swing.

looks good for me
  • #19,059
  • May 16, 2015 6:00am May 16, 2015 6:00am
E/U...next week ?

1.135x ... I think that can achieve this target...or lower but I am conservative.
and I'm here in descending targets.

up targets!... ...I was not very surprised if I saw..1.160x..


sorry ...graphs later
  • #19,060
  • May 16, 2015 6:07am May 16, 2015 6:07am
EU

Possibly something like this:

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