(binned per thread starter's request) GS Journal

Current PA indicate that as long as price is staying above 11270, it will push upward to take out the upper-case fractal and in the event if it succeeds to breaching the 11447 level then 11270 will become the new support/threshold of the bears.

Will post if there is any new development/twist to the PA.

Cheers.....

GS.

Current PA will have to breach 11315 and stay below 11364 to retest the bear first line of defence/threshold @11165 and stay below 11210 in an attempt to retake bear supremacy @11820 with 11070 holding it down. If not it will continue to push north.

Somehow I am rather pessimistic that PA will succeed to reverse the M/T trend by breaching 11880 level with 11070 holding it up. Rather it is more likely to have another retest of the last lowest low plus a few pips lower but just short of parity before turning upside again. However forecasting price is not my forte so I will do what I can do best and that is to follow the price wherever it leads me in a structural forms and leave the forecasting to some other experts.

GS.

Typo..11820 shd read 10820. Sry.

GS

One strange phenomenon or common practice which I have noticed in this forum is those supposedly seasoned or high impact traders who invariably revert back to daily,weekly, monthly chart when they started to be flummoxed by the PA. This is a wrong way to read the PA correctly. One cannot expect to be able to read the PA correctly at ground level and try to navigate its way around by taking a helicopter view from above. The newbs or the less experiences may be impressed by the overall view from above but the real situation on ground level is completely different and it is only after the PA is fully played out then the view from above will become apparent. It reminds me of my childhood where we used to soak strip of papers in the water and the image on it will appeared when it is wetted.

Anyway back to our current PA and as I have mentioned in my previous post that price will need to breach 11315 and stay below 11365 to go lower, well it did not therefore it will be pushing higher to attack the 11650 level before it takes a breather...I suggest to enter another long trade at 11370-85 with SL @ 11315 TP at 11498 level first and watch to see whether the momentum level@11440 level will hold to catapult price to 11610-50 level OR if 11440 does not hold then price will be capped at 11575-11600 level.
Incidentally the G/U pairs is nearing the retracement level@15850-16000 which one can fade it to 15550 level and flip the trade with SL@15300 and TP@16600-16800 Levels as I have indicated in my earlier post a couple of days ago.

Thats it for today and good trading to all......

GS.

I have just enter a long trade @11375 with a dynamic SL @ 11339 ... lets see whether price have any more juice to push north.

GS.

Getting out of my long trade with a small loss....not liking the PA at all. Sitting on hands now.

GS>

Price is poised for downmove.. entered a short trade@ 11350 with SL @ 11390 with initial TP @11180 and subsequent TP tbd later.

GS.

I blundered on this trade, my initial read was correct but somehow I felt uneasy on that trade came out and try to flip it and in the end it costs me dearly. Must be those Friday effect. Anyway lets see if whether 11501 or 11670 can capped this upmove.

GS>

Well I need to manage my journal and my trading better as I just found out that its not so easy to stay focus and multi task on doing both during period of fast moving PA especially as I am new in doing them both at the same time.

I think I have covered most of the main areas and critical points on what and how I improve my own trading in the short time since I started this journal and the key part that is still missing is my trading methodology/systems as to how I derive those breach and hold levels and how to apply it during trades set-up. My trading system is in fact very simple and straight forward with no fanciful or esoteric indicators as I was born and bred belonging to the old school. I only use MAs and Fibs. I use MAs becos I believe anything that is cyclically dynamic has to have a mean point and hence my logic/reason in using them and fibs is becos I also believe that everything in this whole universe is based on fibs both in numerics and also in dimensionality. Those levels that I use and call is based entirely on these premises.

Moving forward onto my weekly analysis on this pairs....My take on this pairs is still bullish and the velocity/pace of its bullishness is quite hurried as there were news that resetting/rebalancing in this pairs is imperative and necessary devoid of any and all commercial fundamentals and its only and sole consideration at this moment is just so that to avoid a international full blown currency war that seems to be simmering and ready to explode on all international major economy. There is a lot of horse trading amongst various major government financial institutions on the stealth and behind closed door so hopefully everything can be brought back to a more even keel before everything starts to keel over. SNB has shown that the current world economy is on a tenterhooks and an innocuous intervention by a moderately significant CB is already serious enough to spook most banks to freeze all liquidity and activity is an ominous sign that a more systemic damaging consequences can happen suddenly and quickly if one of the major CB try to get smart and start getting their acts all wrong. Interest rates have even been relegated to be a non-event for now. Its not difficult to guess who is the pariah now. How steep a slope or how wide the bandwidth the ECB would want to tweak the parameters is of the greatest concerns to all major stakeholders right now and this is the moment/opportunity where all the smart money who is able to read the market correctly will reap the biggest benefits. I personally reckon it will be short of 1.20 and slightly below 1.10 for the next 6-12 months.
Next week PA will continue to advance north but will be spurned/capped by either 11502 or 11570 level max and then shall reposition itself lower just above 11270 to awaits next week Fomc meeting before attacking the 11700 levels afterward with 11420 holding it up for the continuation with its advance north. In the event if 11420 fails to hold it up then the PA process will have to be re-assess and revaluated.

Thats my take for next week and a happy and safe weekend to all.

GS.

Thank you GS. It's very kind of you to share your trading skill and signal. I followed your initiate read which showed precise of price movement. It's hard to do both things simultaneously as you might neglect your focus in trading. Anyway, thanks for your time.

Cheers.

The key to better understand my methodology lies in the initial inputs indicated by the PA which allows me to see if there is any changes which will trigger off a change in the secondary trend(intraday) within a dominating primary or prevailing trend. Since we are in the business of trading, it is enough to know just the primary or prevailing trend. There is no great advantage/need in knowing the longer secular trend unless you are into investing or holding/accumulating in that said asset class for a long period of time in your divestment strategy of your overall business and wealth portfolios or pools.

The initial inputs indicated by the PA in my method is consists of:-
1. The change in the explicit number of pips away from the median point.
2. The breaching of support/resistant level with holding levels holding it up or down. (In a neutral or rangey consolidating market, s/r levels will be breached repeatedly and holding levels does nothing to hold it up nor down).
Point no 2 is best characterized by price breaching the 2 and 3 levels of the quadrants of the price structure then turn around triggering no 1 at the same time reversing the whole PA process therefore triggering off the trend change. These are the minimum two criteria which I am always on the constant lookout during my trade set-up. I would normally book 50% profit on the initial fixed number of pips at the momentum defining level and let the remainder runs until the above is being triggered and then flip my trade accordingly.(The momentum defining level indicates to me the strength of the PA thus enabling me to roughly gauge the final point of the move more or less)

This is the basic principle defining the working of my forex trading methodology which is innovated and built by myself after many years of studies and researches and more researches.

For the purpose of understanding the context of trend in my method, the best descriptions shall be as follows:-
IN a bullish secondary trend, there is bigger bullish PA and smaller bearish PA movements.
IN a bearish secondary trend, there is bigger bearish PA and smaller bullish PA movements.
IN a neutral rangey market , the PA is mostly equilibrium.
Bigger and smaller is differentiated by the numbers of pips generated.

Hope it can helps you to build your own successful method in your quest to be a better trader.

GS.

Look like a puzzle rather than a quest. Scatter pieces of picture combine into one. One need to review what you have said in the past and the present thread to form a overall picture. The input of key numeric may not in details but I can still be able to summarize and plot it into the mt4.

Thanks for your input.


Cheers.

One of my main objectives in running this journal is also to help raise the traders awareness of the significant and criticality of the holding levels as opposed to the breaching levels. If one can read thru most of the posts which was posted here before I joined this forum, you will noticed that most if not all of the traders here were focusing on the breached levels failing to realise that there is no level which will not be breached BUT there are levels which can hold. Hence it is apparent and logical that the holding levels should dominate over and above the breached levels. I have now notice that some of the traders here are slowly beginning to share the same view as me on that aspect of which I acknowledged to have partly contributed to that shift in the traders trading mind set.
In fact this soft approach of mine to gently nudge this idea was initially met with great resistance/derision from some of the most senior and seasoned traders here. But I am comforted to have persevered and I will definitely make my way out of here once I feel that my contributions is done.

Cheers and thanks for all who have heeded and hope you all the greatest success..........

GS<

[quote=genghistar;8266121]Well I need to manage my journal and my trading better as I just found out that its not so easy to stay focus and multi task on doing both during period of fast moving PA especially as I am new in doing them both at the same time. I think I have covered most of the main areas and critical points on what and how I improve my own trading in the short time since I started this journal and the key part that is still missing is my trading methodology/systems as to how I derive those breach and hold levels and how to apply it during trades set-up. My trading system is in fact very simple and straight forward with no fanciful or esoteric indicators as I was born and bred belonging to the old school. I only use MAs and Fibs. I use MAs becos I believe anything that is cyclically dynamic has to have a mean point and hence my logic/reason in using them and fibs is becos I also believe that everything in this whole universe is based on fibs both in numerics and also in dimensionality. Those levels that I use and call is based entirely on these premises. Moving forward onto my weekly analysis on this pairs....My take on this pairs is still bullish and the velocity/pace of its bullishness is quite hurried as there were news that resetting/rebalancing in this pairs is imperative and necessary devoid of any and all commercial fundamentals and its only and sole consideration at this moment is just so that to avoid a international full blown currency war that seems to be simmering and ready to explode on all international major economy. There is a lot of horse trading amongst various major government financial institutions on the stealth and behind closed door so hopefully everything can be brought back to a more even keel before everything starts to keel over. SNB has shown that the current world economy is on a tenterhooks and an innocuous intervention by a moderately significant CB is already serious enough to spook most banks to freeze all liquidity and activity is an ominous sign that a more systemic damaging consequences can happen suddenly and quickly if one of the major CB try to get smart and start getting their acts all wrong. Interest rates have even been relegated to be a non-event for now. Its not difficult to guess who is the pariah now. How steep a slope or how wide the bandwidth the ECB would want to tweak the parameters is of the greatest concerns to all major stakeholders right now and this is the moment/opportunity where all the smart money who is able to read the market correctly will reap the biggest benefits. I personally reckon it will be short of 1.20 and slightly below 1.10 for the next 6-12 months. Next week PA will continue to advance north but will be spurned/capped by either 11502 or 11570 level max and then shall reposition itself lower just above 11270 to awaits next week Fomc meeting before attacking the 11700 levels afterward with 11420 holding it up for the continuation with its advance north. In the event if 11420 fails to hold it up then the PA process will have to be re-assess and revaluated. Thats my take for next week and a happy and safe weekend to all. GS.[/quote

OK Now price is being capped by 11502 so now let see if 11270 will hold it up for the next expedition north.

Good luck and trade well.....

GS

XXXX......




GS<<<

Could you tell me where you draw your Fib levels from(the high and low of each of the Three timeframes?) and a bit about prevailing and current trend(do all three timeframes in the current trend need to line up?) If all timeframes in current trend are opposite to prevailing trend do we take this as a retrace and do you use the same moving averages on each timeframe or have different MA,s to establish equilibrium on each seperate timeframe. Thanks

Apparently from your question I can safely say that you are not quite a accomplished trader just yet but its ok.
With regards to Fib and so far from what I have read in all the threads in this forum re Fibs, I have yet to see anyone doing it the right way or the way that I do. What I can tell you is contrary to what everybody have learnt and beliefs, one should never pull a fib from the Highs/Lows of any price levels. Each individual currency pairs have its own fixed fib value and it should be pull from a specific MA or a weekly/monthly pivot points and will need to be reset each time if there is a change in any of the intraday/mt/lt trends or market conditions. Thats is the reasons why fib is the most difficult and least understood part in this forex business due to this constant change of price dynamism quite unlike in equities and other asset classes. Its always easier to transition from forex to equity then the other way around. MT 4 users/traders have no chance to know about this... let alone do it.
With regards to current and prevailing trends, the emphasis and focus of trading should be on the current intraday trends becos we are all trading in the now or present while at the same times remains fully aware of the prevailing m/t and l/t prevailing trends. In actuality a intraday current bull trend in a m/t prevailing bear trend is a retracement or correction and some more other terms. AND any retracement or correction in a intraday current trend is called a pullback.
Time frames is absolutely irrelevant to PA except it allows for a much better view/perspective for the various market conditions with one look or at a glance. The charts should only be showing the various market conditions no matter which time frame. MAs on different time frames have to be calibrated accordingly to the said time frames. (A 5min chart is 1/3 of a 15min one and a 15min is 1/4 of a 60min one and so on..)

Hope I have made myself clear and I am very certain and sure you will never hear/learn this from any books or anyone else. You must get all this in the right context in order to understand what I am imparting here and from what I have seen and deduce since the beginning of my journal here I am very sure very very few do.

Good luck cheers and have a nice and safe w/e.

GS.

I am still trying to fix some bugs which almost devastated my charting package recently and as soon as its fixed I will continue with my posting. If not then it will be sporadic.

Meanwhile the current PA is pulling back on its bullish mode and it needs to retake the 11235 lvl and hold@11180 to continue its northern drive, I believe we have one more leg to go before price turns south again. I am waiting for price to retake 11235 level and will long it on the first 29-30pips pullback with SL@11180 and TP @11400 and watch for topping signal before exiting/flipping trade.

Cheers and good trading to all.

I was stop out of my long trade yesterday @11180. So the question now is have the intraday trend change? Current PA have indicated that the trend is still intact becos even though the bear threshold lvl@11050 is breached BUT the hold level@11130 did not hold it down for bears to reign. Therefore just like I said in my earlier post that there will be at least one more leg north before it turns south for bears to regain its dominion to reign.
My next trade set up will be for price to breach 11182 then buy the pull back at around 11160 with a SL@ 11125. First TP will be still at 11400 and beyond or until next subsequent topping signal is generated for me to exit and flip the trade.

Cheers and have a great and safe weekend.....

GS.

Since current PA fails to breach 11182 my position remains neutral now........

GS.