The math to have 1000% returns in short-time

Yes yes i perfectly know what you mean, for example if price is going down with a relatively low volatility and you sell 100.000 lots in one shot, perhaps you could ignite a downspike that can as well activate also sell stops of other traders (entry stops or stoplosses doesn't matter) anyway you can cause a strong fast downmove.
Those kind of fast downmoves (spikes) are usually watched calmly by buyers, they don't buy anything until everybody have sold what they was looking to sell (and bringing price down in the process as no real buyers are interested in play the game), then after sellers are "all-in", buyers start to buy and guess what, there are no sellers anymore willing to sell them, so price will start going up, untill sellers will be forced to start taking loss.

Same process happening again and again every minute/hour/day/week/month on every timeframe, yes that's basically how market work.

I agree no matter what, entering a huge (big enough to move the market) position all at once isn't really a smart idea.
But, this kind of things happens on a level way above our (i don't know about you, but surely above my level), if you don't have a billion dollar account (with a real broker, not a retail crap) chances are that you are not affecting the market at all.
Fx daily volume (2013 data) is around 5.3 usd trillion, that translated in lots is about 53 million lots.
53 million lots traded everyday in the fx market, and around 87% of those are traded in usd currencies, 33% on eur, 23% on jpy, 12% on gbp etc.

I mean even if you open a 1.000 lots buy position (10k / pip) on eurusd you may cause a temporarily (perhaps one second) spike of a few pips, that's all. And even in that case, you would not move the price, you would simply get a bad fill on your trade by consuming the offers at the near pips, then if market makers want to put new offers or just move the bids in your favour is up to them. (probably they are not going to care at all about your 1000lots order, they are fighting each other all the time with way bigger sizes and they just have their game playing all the time, not caring about single private investors).
Also, if you do this with any retail broker, you are just going to get a bad fill and that's all (you would not even see the ask in your tick chart go where you got the fill, no interaction with the chart at all, just consume the offers of the shitty liquidity providers of your retail broker, and that's it).

Unless you trade millions of lots you are not going to affect the market at all, really, believe me.

I know the feeling of see price reverse exactly one moment after you buy or sell, and never come back, go all the way to hit your stops, and just reverse after that (this is the extreme example).
It looks like something magical (black magic!?!?) happens, there are many coincidences in this market, sometime it really looks and feels
like the market is damn knowing when and how much we are buying or selling, and how to make us the most possible damage.

It happened to me so many times, and i wondered how that was possible, how can this sort of weird coincidences happens on a daily basis, then after some time the exact opposite started to happen.
Whenever i bought price started going up, and kept going until the tp is hitten, then with sell etc.

I come to the conclusion that some strange coincidences are not due to the fact that we interact in any way with the market, it's all about our mindset and the unconscious believes we have, most retail traders believe on an unconscious level that they are not entitled to make big money, so unconsciously they pick the wrong side of the market at the very wrong time, and the result is the "market is fucking me" feeling, again it is something that happen on an unconscious level (we are not aware of it), so well we would need to open a thread to discuss this very interesting and fascinating fact as it is very complex and really only a few are aware of it.

Nothing is what it looks like.

If I understand well you "math model" (first post), the first loosing trade will bring back your account to -100.. so to get your 1000% you need to get 10 consecutive winners. With a 50/50 system it can take thousands of trades before getting such winning streak

Imagine a more reasonable sequence (but still favorable) for +10 TP/-10 SL - W/W/L/W/L/L/L/W/W/L/W/W/W/W/L/W/L/L/W/W (12 winners/8 losers)

What would be the way you would play it using your MM system?

I would try to find a better entry/exit system, with a 50/50 there isn't much you can do, you can make good profits by being slightly more aggressive after a losing trade (martingale style), but from time to time it will happen to have 5-10 consecutive losses and that's where the situation would get hot.

The MM is like a nitro boost on a car, once you have a good car and a good piloting ability then the boost can make you win the race quickly, but that's just a small part of the equation

Yeah i know this thread is not particularly helpful but in some way it is, i've seen many great traders that do really good but are always stuck with a small account because they don't "boost" their success, so in some cases this MM style can be really helpful.

But just in some cases.

Great idea.
Thanks

hi tablet,
Interesting. Try your paper and pen explanation here. or by video please.

Thanks,

"Unless you trade millions of lots you are not going to affect the market at all, really, believe me"


Just to clarify: So >1M $100k (?) lots (that is 10000M) on bid & ask , what are the bid & ask before and after execution of something <1M lots and is this around the clock or specific time of day? What type of broker or execution facility or is it OTC or private? How do you define "not affect the market" - the bid/ask stay same after execution? - for how long?

Risk 1, 2 or 4% per trade. Make 10 trades a day with like 2:1 RR with 60% Winrate. 10 trades with 4% is like 20% profit per day. A week is 100%. In a month you will have make from 1000, you would have made 16k. 400% in a month. But it's not 5k because you will always be using your whole account. So 1000 to 2000 to 4000 to 8000 to 16000. Keep growing it.

No there are not 1m lots of bids and offers on each pip of course

In fact with just 100lots (10 millions), can consume the bids or offers of a full pip on eurusd depending on the current time (asian session, london session, ny session) so the market is not all that big.
However there are quite a number of liquidity providers in forex and the whole things is automatic computerized and very high speed, so even if you buy 100lots chances are that in a matter of milliseconds new bids or offers are being placed, and in fact your order would not make any difference (price don't move in your direction!).
Then it's up to you to try make your tests if you don't believe me, all i say comes from personal direct experience.

You buy 1000 lots, fine, you consume the offers that stay in the ask of the next pips, in a matter of milliseconds new offers are brought to the market and nothing has changed.

All this is non sense really, this is not the penny stock market, you can literally buy or sell whatever you want and the liquidity is just there to absorb your orders, and if you want to buy 1000 lots but not want to get filled a few pips away from price just enter with a limit order and you'll get a perfect fill, there isn't really any problem whatsoever regarding liquidity in the forex market.

The only problem is get in the right direction and make a good trade.

The most critical is the success probability and if you can achieve it instead of the mathmatics.