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It caught the big US dollar rally, and now is setting up for the next big trend.

Feel free to ask us any questions on this.

Arenoosh: Please show me one trading book, one phrase, one analyst, one whatever you want that teach you to buy a currency when the central bank is cutting rates.

Crazy market today in AUD/crosses. RBA did cut the rates but the market bought the Aussie and the explanation for this is that the market believes RBA will not cut anymore any rate by the end of 2015. This is the last one....they think.

It could be, but they seem to ignore the fact that RBA is uncomfortable with AUD/USD at or above 0.8000. Well....if we have to go with the herd, the rational trade would be to buy AUD/USD looking for 0.8300. Why that level? Please read my analysis and see my chart on our forum.

I am not sure I understand the DAX sell off from today and honestly I am not sure the big boys know what is the catalyst for the biggest one-day percentage drop since March 2014. DAX lost around 3% today and some voices say a failed bond auction in Germany, with yields surging on fixed income assets could be the trigger while some others are arguing that the rally in EUR/USD is the "guilty". In this precise moment I don't think the real cause of this sell off is highly important because usually the news come to us at the end, when the big money are already done with whatever they want to do.

What it counts for me now is the technical picture and the Head&Shoulder pattern on the daily chart seems pretty interesting. It becomes even more interesting when you see that the projection of the patterns targets the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the rally since October 2014 till April 10. That area should offer a good support and buyers could start building new long positions from there. After all, the ECB is still printing money and there are plenty of it to buy stocks isn't it?

http://forum.caesartrade.com/t58024205/dax/

Seems that I was right about traders not looking much at UK election today. I got so many emails from you guys asking me about the EUR/USD and Bond correlation. I suppose I got your attention with my email from yesterday.

A few minutes ago I published the analysis for EUR/USD in our forum and I also explained you (in poor words) how is the bond market influencing the EURO these days.

As you will see in that analysis, I think EUR/USD is heading for 1.15000 but as soon as it gets there I would rather sell it than playing the breakout.

David Cameron is set to return to Downing Street without his defeated Liberal Democrat coalition partner. The market sure greeted Cameron's return with the GBP rallying against all the other currencies and the FTSE100 Futures contract opened with quite an important gap. The question is: will the market want to cover the gap or will continue to celebrate further?

My money are on the second option. However, I am more worried about the world sentiment as in the past few days the trends seem to reverse. If in the beginning of 2015 everyone was buying bonds and stocks now the same "everyone" seem to be more preoccupied to reassess their portfolios. China - the queen stock market of the year - lost around 8% in one single day on Wednesday and more than 80% of this market is in the retail hands. Will they be freaked out and want their money back? This remain an opened question. What I want to do though is to buy FTSE100 but not a big position (just in case the fire will get bigger in China, I don't want to get burned in UK). 7126 and even 7200 I think is achievable.

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I don't know which is worse: not finding any opportunity in the market or trying to trade something and loosing money? Yesterday was no-trading day. I looked over and over at the charts and couldn't find any trade that would have worth trying it. So I asked the guys in our Whatsapp Trading Room for any idea. They come out with short GBP/NZD or long NZD/JPY (I had arguments not to trade them and I was right as both trades failed) and later in the evening someone came with the idea of some technical sign to sell eur/usd. Again I had counter-arguments not to take this trade...and again....today the market proves that I was right.

You could say that if I am so smart, why I haven't called to go long eur/usd or gbp/nzd? The thing is that the market is choppy and there is no strong fundamentals to drive one pair or another in a certain direction. EUR/USD short could have worked in the same manner as it failed.

For a day-trader looking at 1h chart (or lower) might find trades for 10-30 pips but I don't know to trade like this and even today I am having a hard time finding any opportunity in the market.

Days like this, makes me think at Caesar Trade's newest account: time deposits.I suppose getting 15% return on your investment is far better than trying to trade what seems a good opportunity and see your money vanishing or not trading at all because you don't see anything to trade. Now I would be happy to obtain 15% on my money than seeing them "resting" in an MT4 account. Wouldn't you?

How is your trading lately? After a few days when I was frustrated not seeing opportunities in the market, I finally got one. And this one is big: 14000 pips.

All that you need to do is to place your trade and be patient for the market to follow its course. If you are one of those traders that are dying if you do not open and close a trade every 5 minute it's worthless for you to read my analysis onUSD/SGD in our forum.

Feel free to use the reply in the forum to ask questions about this trade or to share your own view. And if you are reading this email and not trading yet, take our 400% bonus (real money to trade with) and jump in this trade: after all, what do you have to loose? Our money?

Disappointing US economic data and high volatility in the German bunds kept the dollar under pressure this month. The same happened with your trading account, unless you are a day trader and book your profits for a few pips. Even so, intra-day strange movements with the greenback up and in the next second down, gave a lot of headache for day-traders too.

The fundamental case for the dollar was based on divergence of monetary policy. This piece remains in place. As the Wall Street Journal survey found, an overwhelming majority of economists (73%) expect the Fed to hike in September. Meanwhile, there is little doubt that the ECB and BOJ will be continuing to expand their balance sheets under versions of QE well past then.

From a technical perspective, the dollar's losses in recent weeks must be seen in the context of the previous 11-month rally. The Dollar Index rallied 27.5% between May 2014 and March 2015. The pullback has been about 7.4%. It has not reached the minimum Fibonacci 38.2% retracement that is often looked for after a large move. That objective is found near 92.20 while the Dollar Index has only approached 93.00 thus far. The 92.00 area also corresponds to an objective of the possible double top carved out in March and April (neckline near 96.25). There is not compelling technical evidence suggesting that a low is at hand. Resistance is now seen near 94.00.

If you want to beat the market you have to listen Nelson Mandela's words:

"Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world".

In our case, I would say "Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to make profits in this market". Eric - Caesar Trade CEO - sent many emails back in March yelling BUY EUR/USD and BUY OIL. Myself, I am trying to send you many precious info but no one reads....no one follows....no one wants to "change the world". In other words....no one wants to educate himself by reading these info and learning how to use them.

The UK has entered its first period of deflation in more than half a century, with prices falling by 0.1 per cent in the year to April.
Tuesday’s data mark a new record low for the consumer price index since the Office for National Statistics began producing the series in 1996, with an experimental data series suggesting that the last time inflation was this low could be even further back, in early 1960.

We somehow anticipated this with a short GBP/USD took last Thursday from 1.5760/1.5800 area for 1.5550 target. The call was made on our Whatsapp Trading Room and you can see it here: http://screencast.com/t/f5qc5cjs

Now everyone is asking me what's next for cable? I have no idea but when I will see another 210 or more pips move potential, I will let you know. So be sure you have a real trading account with Caesar Trade so you can join our Whatsapp Trading Room for the next call.

Till then, I am looking at something else. Since I unloaded a long USD position (by having GBP/USD hitting the target) I think we can afford to add another long USD and I am looking here at the double bottom pattern for USD/CHF: http://screencast.com/t/f6Tm0TSAts

Please read (again) my email from Sunday evening and be aware that I am not sure we have a bottom in USD Index so you have to give this trade some space to run out all the unexpected sharp sell off. Look at the R:R. The target is at 0.9630 so from current levels that makes 330 pips. So 110 pips risk should be on the table. You risk 1 pip to win 3. I think is more than fair. What do you think?

P.S. For now, the first attempt to break the double bottom pattern's neck it failed (as you can see on my chart).

The dollar’s gains on Tuesday were across the board against the currencies that make up the dollar index — which include the yen, euro and sterling. The index rose 1.1 per cent, leaving the yen worst hit and down 1.3 per cent at Y123.12 — a depth last plumbed in July 2007.

The risk that the swift pace of Japanese government bond purchases under the government’s quantitative easing programme could have a further negative impact on the yen is rising. Evidence is emerging from the quarterly statements of Japan’s pension funds, that the hunger for higher yields is hastening a reallocation into foreign equities and bonds from JGBs (Japanese Governmental Bonds).

GPIF, Japan’s biggest public sector pension fund, announces its first-quarter asset allocation this week and is expected by analysts at RBC Capital Markets to have sold as much as Y6.7tn ($54.6bn) of JGBs in the quarter.

Now that we know who is selling JPY and the power GPIF has, the only thing that we can do is to look for pullbacks and buy USD/JPY. On a monthly chart, USD/JPY is trading now at the resistance and I would not mind to see a rejection. Honestly, looking how strong the USD is overall, I have big doubts this rejection will come. However, if the unexpected will happen, we need to switch to a daily chart to see that the ex-resistance at 122.00 could now be a support and also a good level to buy from.

I know some voices in the market are speaking about big orders targeting 130.00 and 132.00. The technicals are showing the next resistance at 135.00 so I think 130.00-132.00 is more than achievable. Are you joining?

Iraq is taking OPEC's strategy to defend its share of the global oil market to a new level.

The nation plans to boost crude exports by about 26 percent to a record 3.75 million barrels a day next month, according to shipping programs, signaling an escalation of OPEC strategy to undercut U.S. shale drillers in the current market rout. The additional Iraqi oil is equal to about 800,000 barrels a day, or more than comes from OPEC member Qatar. The rest of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to rubber stamp its policy to maintain output levels at a meeting on June 5.

I think the market is aware of Iraq's plans as technically, I see WTI in a reversal mode after reaching 62.60 peak on May 6. If you look on my daily chart here you notice how the Oil price broke an ascending trend line and now is trading respecting a newly born descending trend line. Also, if you look at the MACD, I'd say the bearish trend is only at the beginning. First support is 53.75 (ex-resistance) but if Iraq will make their plans official, I think 40$/barrel is a good target for Oil.

Do you have enough capital in your trading capital to test this theory? And patience? We can help you increasing your trading power if you opt for our 400% bonus but we cannot do anything about patience. I am short Oil since May 20 and don't think I will see my target reach in the next few days but rather in the next few weeks/months. If you do not have patience you can enter/exit on intra-day support/resistance levels.

We have a lot of activity in our Whatsapp Trading Room lately, but is more talking than trading and that's because the market sends some weird signals.

While I (and some other fellows) keep our long term buy USD/SGD and buy USD/CHF positions opened, we are also looking at GBP/USD lately and yesterday evening we tried to buy it. This attempt failed and some fellow traders had some losses but I don't think it were significant. Even so, one very important thing that I noticed, is that many traders lack the trade management.

I took that trade myself and you can see it here but first of all I trade 0.10 lots on a 10K account so I have plenty of space to accommodate any kind of sh*t might happen in the market, and second, I closed that trade with a small profit because there was something stinky in that long GBP/USD and I was not convinced of a positive outcome for short term.

I know many traders trading 1 lot position size on much smaller accounts, like 10X times smaller. That is called harakiri or sepuku not trading.

Anyway, this channel in GBP/USD does not let me sleep so I bought it again not once but 3 times. Here is one position and here are the other two positions.

If I loose, I loose a few dollars....who cares? I have a few thousand others to trade with. But if I am right and GBP/USD will retrace, I will most likely make about >1% return on the 10k account.

Do you see my point here? The market is becoming tricky again and if you do not apply a proper trade and risk management you will cry loosing big money on GBP/USD while the fault is only yours. Anyway, my target is 1.5450

Will this work out? I don't know, but I know the channel is still there and the USD bulls ran too fast too furious lately and they need to breath

I remember once someone asked me "what's the point spending almost 2 hours of your time watching LIVE a central bank's press conference or reading the long statements they issue since there are so many journalists writing about it afterwords".???

Today's market reaction in EUR/USD after Mario Draghi's press conference is the best answer to that question. Take for example CNBC article on ECB press conference. The videos they selected with Mario Draghi and the title itself is negative for EUR/USD: "ECB's Draghi quashes any talk of an early taper". Moreover, the videos and the content of that article is somehow neutral to negative for EURO.

I suppose an average trader, reading those lines would sell EUR/USD. For some reasons, CNBC omitted to write about the fact that ECB president, Mario Draghi, said that he and the rest of ECB board members were not worried about recent Bond sell off and that the market should get used to such action and higher volatility than usual. In my opinion, this statement is the real driver to what happened to EUR/USD after the press release ended.

When you here that ECB will not do anything about sharp bond sell offs and find it normal, what do you do if you would be a bond trader? You continue to sell, right?

Well, have a look at the EURO-BUND price action today. Is selling off pretty aggressive, breaking the previous support and making new lower lows. This should push investors with long positions to cover their longs. The yields are rising and so the EUR/USD. How high? According to this daily chart, the resistance remains at 1.1500 but you should keep an close eye to the EURO-BUNDs.

Otherwise, I stay long USD for long term and keep my long USD/SGD and USD/CHF positions. Next big event will be on Friday with the NFP but mostly, the OPEC meeting, which might implement a clearer direction for Oil