Why Germany won't be in charge of Europe forever | Forex Factory

Why Germany won't be in charge of Europe forever | Forex Factory

Why Germany won't be in charge of Europe forever

From businessinsider.com

Germany is Europe's biggest economy, the most populous country on the continent, and is pretty much indisputably in charge. For right or wrong, nobody's confused as to which of the European Union's capital cities wears the trousers. If Berlin isn't on board with something, chances are that it's not happening. That's the way things have worked for a long time, especially since the euro crisis. But it's not necessarily always going to be that way. Earlier today, the European Commission published a report that shows perhaps the biggest threat to Germany's heavyweight champion status in Europe. Here's the reason, pretty ... (full story)

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May 13, 2015 8:17pm

I thought that a large part of the reason to create the EU was to ensure that no one country would ever be in a position to "lead" Europe. We have seen what happens when one country tries to be the 'leader' of Europe....it ends in tears....for everyone.

May 14, 2015 12:17am

In fact in the animal kingdom, it is the strongest / most ruthless that rule.

The European *Union* is a bringing together of member states for the common good of ALL states. Having one leading state is contrary to the very idea of the union, and expressly was designed to prevent another global war. Germany has sought to be the king of Europe before, and the free world rejects such a notion.

May 14, 2015 12:51am

I think you should go outside and take deep breath of fresh air and calm down!!

Yes, I've been to Germany twice in fact.....and my FX trading partner is also German. There is no prejudice in anything I have said....anywhere.....at all.

I am simply saying that the European UNION was designed to prevent any one member state becoming dominant and causing problems. It is a fact that Germany has twice tried to do this.

There is a European Parliament, which (sadly) is about as much good as a wet bus ticket, but at least it is a cross section of all the member states who are represented. This is democratic......having one dominant country calling the shots over the others is contrary to the very idea of the EU, is not!

It doesn't matter whether the dominant country is Germany or Italy or France etc etc.....the EU model does not allow for any one member state to 'call the shots' over any other member state. To allow this happen is to tempt fate.

Nobody wants another fight to be the boss of Europe....that's why we have the EU and the EU Parliament. Germany must not have any greater influence than any other member state...neither must UK or France or anyone else.

If there is to be (for want of a better term) a United States of Europe, then the (member) states must be united....not divided. Having one member state calling the shots is divisive and dangerous.

May 14, 2015 1:23am

Quoting JensG

Disliked

Germany is not dominant nor is it causing problems.

Ignored

From the first line of the article we are discussing: "Germany is Europe's biggest economy, the most populous country on the continent, and is pretty much indisputably in charge."

Quoting JensG

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There is a difference between trying to lead a group and being a dictator.

Ignored

Agreed. As I have said, the EU model does NOT require a leader or a leading member state. It was designed specifically to avoid this!!

Quoting JensG

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The money thing is an entirely different problem but as Elisabeth noted, there is no money for free.

Ignored

It is indeed....and this where the whole house of cards falls down. Any lending of monies MUST be made via the ECB....not via one member state to another. If the ECB is the body through which ALL member states has to go through, then we have a level playing field with common rules for all.

Quoting JensG

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And so did all other big nations (not necessarily on Europe though). But it was a different Germany back than AND it was a different world.

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And the world does not want a repeat of it...hence the European UNION!!!

May 12, 2015 3:16pm

Quoting cecchino

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I hope never and never italy have a determination role in anithing.

Ignored

Ah well, your country did a good job in feeding me (pizza, salami ... I always preferred German beer though). Seriously: I don't think that corruption is necessary a problem with current leader ship. Corruption is always about grown structures. I have the feeling (correct me if I'm wrong) that Renzi wants to do the right thing, the question for me is: will they allow him to do what is necessary.

Quoting Elisabeth

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PS: D does not want to be in charge but as we contribute rather a lot to EU finance we have to try to make sure the money is spent well as we as the North in generalseem to have s slightly different attitude to money .

Ignored

Germans are generally paranoid about that money thing, especially in terms on inflation and the local media is using that. I do think it's kinda stupid but I can still understand these people. If you grow up with all the stories like "inflation is when you go with a wheelbarrow full of money to the bakery" there is not much you can do about the peoples feelings and worries.

Regarding that leader thing.
Germans in generally not want to lead and that is no surprise, "leader" means "Führer", and we all know the history regarding that "Führer" who destroyed Germany and Europe as a whole including the image of an entire nation for decades. In the end though, with all that bailout money someone has to "lead" and I think quiet a few other "northern" countries are quiet happy that Germany plays the "we want our money back" bad boy role, so they don't have to do it.

May 12, 2015 10:51pm

No other country have the political capacity to do it.

UK is the grumpy part - not happy with the 100k immigrants from EU, but somehow blind for the Arabs and Indians that swarm the country.

France is ruled by ineptocrats.

Italy - no thanks.

Scandinavian countries - too self-compacted social structure to expand their view.

Holland and Belgium - sweet countries - but no economic power to do it.

Central and east Europe - still in recovery after the USSR experiment.

So - like it or not - Germany it will be! :-)

May 13, 2015 12:20am

UK ethnic composition:

white 87.2%, black/African/Caribbean/black British 3%, Asian/Asian British: Indian 2.3%, Asian/Asian British: Pakistani 1.9%, mixed 2%, other 3.7% (2011 est.)

Almost 5% Muslim. And UKIP blows the horn for the 24 000 immigrants from Bulgaria and Romania.

Just look at FYROM - slow ethnic annihilation from Muslim Albanian population from inside.

UK is ethnic ticking bomb for the next 25 yrs.

But yeah - keep singing about EU immigration...

May 13, 2015 12:30am

Politicians of course - but who votes for them? The people maybe?

1.5 million middle class educated and skilled people emigrated from Bulgaria in the 90s shrinking the work force to miserable levels.

And so now the people that invade EU are the minorities, low crime groups and so on. Sad but fact.

And you know where is the blame finger this to happen. It was mainly due to poor economic conditions. Think USSR late 80s.

May 13, 2015 4:47am

Quoting Macdon

Disliked

Sadly, I won't argue with you on this point, but who directs these people to the UK? Who decrees that we take them in with benefits on top? Who instigated the laws which imprison us if we we dare speak out against them even though they commit many horrible crimes on the isles?

Ignored

My frame of reference wants to blame Tony Blair. A naive and altruistic clown if ever there was one. IMHO of course...

Quote

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If we speak out against Bulgarians or other Euro types, no-one will say anything. Why is that?

...because they don't have any political clout! ...yet

May 13, 2015 4:55am

Quoting michaelpelly

Disliked

UK ethnic composition:

white 87.2%, black/African/Caribbean/black British 3%, Asian/Asian British: Indian 2.3%, Asian/Asian British: Pakistani 1.9%, mixed 2%, other 3.7% (2011 est.)

Almost 5% Muslim. And UKIP blows the horn for the 24 000 immigrants from Bulgaria and Romania.

Just look at FYROM - slow ethnic annihilation from Muslim Albanian population from inside.

UK is ethnic ticking bomb for the next 25 yrs.

But yeah - keep singing about EU immigration...

Ignored

What is FYROM please?

Mostly I agree with you. UK ----(20 years)----> Beirut

May 14, 2015 1:15am

And again I'm making the mistake by wasting my time on clown factory ... I should quit ...

Quoting realjumper

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I am simply saying that the European UNION was designed to prevent any one member state becoming dominant and causing problems.

Ignored

Germany is not dominant nor is it causing problems.
There is a difference between trying to lead a group and being a dictator.

The money thing is an entirely different problem but as Elisabeth noted, there is no money for free.

Quoting realjumper

Disliked

It is a fact that Germany has twice tried to do this.

Ignored

And so did all other big nations (not necessarily on Europe though). But it was a different Germany back than AND it was a different world.

May 14, 2015 5:51am

Quoting redfx1989

Disliked

.... remember when Hitler rulling germany, and when many others country finally unity to defeat him at WW2. and now Germany (as WW2 losser) still dominant at economy.
and many country whos defeat Germany at WW2 now still losser. at economy ....

Ignored

Same for Japan, although they allowed corruption to ruin their chances.

After WW2 Germany and Japan were forbidden from having armies. Best thing we ever did for them!

May 15, 2015 2:12am

I think you need your brains feeling....

Quoting Macdon

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So no onerous defence budgets for them huh? Yeah, I get it. I bet Greece has an onerous defence budget due to the threat from Islamic Turkey? Right?

Ignored

It was suggested to Greece that they rely on NATO for their protection. The Greeks chose to retain the ability to do something about skirmishes in a timely manner, and no it is not from Turkey.

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In fact didn't the troika refuse to accept the Greek's idea of reducing their defence budget? A thinking person must ask why as this would be a good measure of austerity?

Let me tell you why. It's because the troika is only interested in milking and destroying Greece as the Greeks purchase arms from places like France and Germany amongst others.

Your ignorance is amazing!

Quote

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May I suggest to Greece to get out of the EZ, start printing drachmas and tell the banksters where to go. In fact when the weasel looking troika and they do look like them, come to Greece just detain them for unspecified crimes and let the Franco-German govts. spend weeks, months, years negotiating to secure their release.

Guess what? Some of the Greeks agree with you! Recently from a newspaper...
"Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has refused any bailout plan that would send Greece into a "death spiral", saying he wished the country still had the drachma and had not entered the Eurozone, the Guardian reports."

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As for Elisabeth, ....

I think that merits a separate reply from you.

May 15, 2015 10:51am

Quoting Macdon

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Then please explain why the troika refused Greece's suggestion that they cut down on defence spending as a measure of austerity? I read this here on FF.

Ignored

The Troika is fed-up with getting the run-around.

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I know the drill here mate. In AU they instituted a GST/VAT tax of 10% in 2000 after Americans came here in AU for a "visit". What did they do with the extra cash? Buy more weapons. From who? You tell me, you know the answer.

In AU we have a deficit of about $40 billion. Our govt. wants to spend $50 billion on submarines. Work it out!

The last I heard/read about the Greek defence situation is as I wrote earlier. Greece was recommended to rely on NATO so that they would spend less on armies etc. Greece did not want to do that. Fair do's. TBH if some of the significant contributors to NATO do not have enough capacity to defend their own airspace (the UK) then it seems reasonable to not adopt NATO as a primary defence strategy.

UK defence spending has been squeezed for years, the resources have been whittled away to the point where Russian Bear reconnaissance bombers can easily probe UK airspace because the RAF has all its planes in Libya or similar. That information is straight out of this year's TV (with video footage of Russian planes of course).

So there are two concerning issues here. 1) The back door to Europe is probably wide open and Putin is having a look to see just how wide open. Also as an intelligence gathering exercise, I surmise, to see how much truth there is behind the sabre-rattling from the West as things deteriorate in the Ukraine.

2) Why is Oz buying submarines? Is that the new answer to immigration control? Is there some other threat that your govt is concerned about and hasn't let on yet? Or maybe it is the same as the defence resources in other parts of the world, the existing boats have come to the point where water is getting in faster than it can be pumped out! So they are buying, have bought, new boats from the US I guess because otherwise they will not be allowed to export ore to the States. That is usually how it works.....

Jul 30, 2015 7:22am

Quoting geomink

Disliked

Hey Realjumper!!

I see you are not online from May 28, 2015

Do you use Genesis again?

Ignored

If he is not online since May 28, 2015 how RJ should see your message?
But I can let him know if you want

May 12, 2015 12:38pm — Edited

Making babies is not what Italians do these days so where are all these new Italians coming from then ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2953382/Italy-s-birth-rate-drops-lowest-150-years-government-scrambles-economy-boost.html

May 13, 2015 2:20am

Quoting michaelpelly

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But yeah - keep singing about EU immigration...

Ignored

The UK's main concern is that free movement of EU citizens would be discrimination against immigrants from outside the EU like for instance migrants from Pakistan.

Why not make a deal, continental EU countries keep the EU immigrants and we send all the muslim immigrants to the UK.

Problem solved, Everybody happy.

May 12, 2015 11:49pm

Quoting Elisabeth

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PipsExpress, do you want Greece in charge of Europe?

And it is not 'Deutschland ueber alles' , but we always seem to come out of the ashes a little bit stronger.

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Yeah, with other people's money. Like the Marshall Plan, stolen Jewish gold, jewelry and cash secreted in Swiss banks.

Oh yeah let's not forget the Greek's gold and the forced Greek loan to Germany still unpaid to this day.

I'd rather Greece than Germany that's for sure. I'd rather Malta or Andorra than Germany but I think size may matter. Anyhow, why should we have any single country in charge of Europe? They should all be separate countries with their own currency and deciding their own fate.

Failing that, there is only 1 natural choice and that is Great Britain. Britannia will always rule the waves and never, ever die!

May 13, 2015 12:24am

Quoting michaelpelly

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Soon Great Britaina will be new Delhi and Arab peninsula mixed together - don't hold your breath :-).

Ignored

Sadly, I won't argue with you on this point, but who directs these people to the UK? Who decrees that we take them in with benefits on top? Who instigated the laws which imprison us if we we dare speak out against them even though they commit many horrible crimes on the isles? If we speak out against Bulgarians or other Euro types, no-one will say anything. Why is that?

May 13, 2015 4:04am

Quoting barkie

Disliked

The UK's main concern is that free movement of EU citizens would be discrimination against immigrants from outside the EU like for instance migrants from Pakistan.

Why not make a deal, continental EU countries keep the EU immigrants and we send all the muslim immigrants to the UK.

Problem solved, Everybody happy.

Ignored

As a citizen of an immigrant nation, AU, I am opposed to incompatible immigration into Europeanised countries. It will only end in misery for the host nations. Already AU has put aside $1.2 billion for combatting terrorism in AU. I could save you the heartache and the money - stop immigration from incompatible countries.

I fear the UK will be under Sharia Law in a short while.Who will lead Europe then.

May 13, 2015 5:12am

Quoting Exodus

Disliked

My frame of reference wants to blame Tony Blair. A naive and altruistic clown if ever there was one. IMHO of course...

...because they don't have any political clout! ...yet

Ignored

That bloke is a war criminal. As for political clout - it's more than that. Think! We can go on about nasty Germans / Greeks / Americans / Italians / Brits etc. on these forums.

Anyway, as to who leads Europe, it really should be a large country like a choice out of 5. Why large? One would think the experience of leading a large country would transfer leadership experience to a large continent.

Personally I'd love to see Ireland lead Europe. Grrrr the Celtic Tiger!!!

May 14, 2015 7:30pm

Quoting michaelpelly

Disliked

Former yougoslavic republic of Macedonia.

Ignored

I love it! The trading competition out there is so ill-informed that one can't help taking advantage of them and increasing that bank balance.

May 14, 2015 7:39pm

Quoting Exodus

Disliked

Same for Japan, although they allowed corruption to ruin their chances.

After WW2 Germany and Japan were forbidden from having armies. Best thing we ever did for them!

Ignored

So no onerous defence budgets for them huh? Yeah, I get it. I bet Greece has an onerous defence budget due to the threat from Islamic Turkey? Right?

In fact didn't the troika refuse to accept the Greek's idea of reducing their defence budget? A thinking person must ask why as this would be a good measure of austerity?

Let me tell you why. It's because the troika is only interested in milking and destroying Greece as the Greeks purchase arms from places like France and Germany amongst others.

May I suggest to Greece to get out of the EZ, start printing drachmas and tell the banksters where to go. In fact when the weasel looking troika and they do look like them, come to Greece just detain them for unspecified crimes and let the Franco-German govts. spend weeks, months, years negotiating to secure their release.

As for Elisabeth, I don't care what you say. Austerity doesn't work, especially in the long run

May 15, 2015 9:13am

Quoting Exodus

Disliked

Let me tell you why. It's because the troika is only interested in milking and destroying Greece as the Greeks purchase arms from places like France and Germany amongst others.

You said: Your ignorance is amazing!

Ignored

Then please explain why the troika refused Greece's suggestion that they cut down on defence spending as a measure of austerity? I read this here on FF.

I know the drill here mate. In AU they instituted a GST/VAT tax of 10% in 2000 after Americans came here in AU for a "visit". What did they do with the extra cash? Buy more weapons. From who? You tell me, you know the answer.

In AU we have a deficit of about $40 billion. Our govt. wants to spend $50 billion on submarines. Work it out!

Jul 28, 2015 5:39am

Quoting realjumper

Disliked

From the first line of the article we are discussing: "Germany is Europe's biggest economy, the most populous country on the continent, and is pretty much indisputably in charge."

Agreed. As I have said, the EU model does NOT require a leader or a leading member state. It was designed specifically to avoid this!!

It is indeed....and this where the whole house of cards falls down. Any lending of monies MUST be made via the ECB....not via one member state to another. If the ECB is the body through which ALL member states has...

Ignored

Hey Realjumper!!

I see you are not online from May 28, 2015

Do you use Genesis again?

May 12, 2015 1:49pm

Quoting PipsExpress

Disliked

- germany is running the place as no one else wants to be in charge of a boat that is sinking.
- germany did destroy europe twice before so they do have the necessary know-how.
- go schauble, go, remember: "deutschland über alles"

Ignored

what stupid words! happy silly

May 14, 2015 4:23am — Edited

US and Russia is a pass,, China and German is a future

Today war arena at economy, diplomacy, lobby, policy.

Their economy power naturally put others country at trouble, just like tree at jungle, when 1 tree growing bigger and higher, automaticly will put others tree into shade.

war is not solution.
you cut big tree with axe, big tree tumbling, that will hit others small tree. domino effect.
even after that, that giant tree still having root, and will grow again.

remember when Hitler rulling germany, and when many others country finally unity to defeat him at WW2. and now Germany (as WW2 losser) still dominant at economy.
and many country whos defeat Germany at WW2 now still losser. at economy

war is just recycle, fertilizer. even your country win over other country, it come to nothing, if yours country bad at economy. at war, all country is losser in economy, only country with good economy will get advantage after war finish.

also today war is more expensive..
need expensive weapon. yesterday war with bullet and bom, today all country have bullet and bom, so upgrading weapon is necesary to get stealth, silent, distance, digitalization, and automation.
need expensive army. yesterday people fight for freedom, now we all free already. so army fight for sallary.. to buy smartphone, car, and woman

hahaaa..

May 12, 2015 1:11pm

Quoting mitch77

Disliked

God help us if the the French or Italians are running europe.

Ignored

You're fully right, my country is the worst country you can find in the world (i speak about administration not for landscape) corrupt, bad politics things, mafia etc. I hope never and never italy have a determination role in anithing. See how a country defend his border from an african invasion!! No thanks, but for france i not see any problem.

May 12, 2015 2:52pm

is it all by design https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LplCcxyPo4

May 13, 2015 12:13am

Soon Great Britaina will be new Delhi and Arab peninsula mixed together - don't hold your breath :-).

May 13, 2015 9:18am

Thx

May 14, 2015 12:03am

Quoting Exodus

Disliked

What is FYROM please?

Mostly I agree with you. UK ----(20 years)----> Beirut

Ignored

Former yougoslavic republic of Macedonia.

May 13, 2015 6:55am

Quoting Macdon

Disliked

Personally I'd love to see Ireland lead Europe. Grrrr the Celtic Tiger!!!

Ignored

I like it,, Celtic Tiger..

May 12, 2015 12:22pm

God help us if the the French or Italians are running europe.

May 12, 2015 1:38pm

- germany is running the place as no one else wants to be in charge of a boat that is sinking.
- germany did destroy europe twice before so they do have the necessary know-how.
- go schauble, go, remember: "deutschland über alles"

May 12, 2015 1:50pm

PS: D does not want to be in charge but as we contribute rather a lot to EU finance we have to try to make sure the money is spent well as we as the North in generalseem to have s slightly different attitude to money .

May 13, 2015 4:37am

In 2011, there were 7.5 million foreign-born residents in the UK, corresponding to 11.9 per cent of the total population.[5] A 2010 estimate shows that 4.76 million (7.7 per cent) were born outside the EU and 2.24 million (3.6 per cent) were born in another EU member state.

Analysis by the University College London Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration found that while the fiscal contribution by European workers was overwhelmingly positive – amounting to £20 billion in a decade

Between 1995 and 2011, immigrants from outside the EU made a negative contribution of £118 billion over 17 years, using more publicly-funded services, including the NHS, education and benefits, than they paid in tax.

Immigration to the UK since 2000 has been of substantial net fiscal benefit, with immigrants contributing more than they have received in benefits and transfers. This is true for immigrants from Central and Eastern Europe as well as the rest of the EU.”

May 13, 2015 9:09am

Quoting Elisabeth

Disliked

PS: D does not want to be in charge but as we contribute rather a lot to EU finance we have to try to make sure the money is spent well as we as the North in generalseem to have s slightly different attitude to money .

Ignored

Isn't Germany's debt-to-GDP ratio something like 75%? If Germany is running the show, then they're not even meeting the debt requirements they set themselves.

May 13, 2015 9:17am

D would have the ability to repay a lot if tightening the tax screw ( I hope they will not). Germany is investing now more in reducing the debt as the tax revenue is high (without crippling rates). Other countries are not so fortunate with their revenue.

May 13, 2015 1:45pm

For our Greek friends to help them correct their myopia:

Why Greece is different

from Daniel Gros, Project Syndicate, Brussels, 13.5.15
as appeared in forexfactory news an hour or so ago:

BRUSSELS – The seemingly interminable negotiations between the new Greek government and its international creditors – the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank, and the European Commission – on a new loan deal have entered a dangerous phase. At this point, a mistake on either side threatens to trigger the kind of accident that could precipitate a new crisis in Europe.

The IMF seems ready to throw in the towel – not least because of the recent revelation that Greece could post a small primary budget deficit (which excludes interest payments) this year, rather than the planned sizeable surplus. But, with Greece’s economy tanking again, its government is convinced that the current repayment program is not working – and that, in the absence of significant adjustments, it never will.

Fundamental to Greece’s case for new bailout terms is the narrative – reinforced by its current economic travails – that it has been a victim of excessive austerity. But this neglects a crucial fact: austerity worked in Europe’s other crisis-hit countries. Indeed, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and even Cyprus are showing clear signs of recovery, with unemployment finally falling (albeit slowly and from high levels) and access to capital markets restored.

Why is Greece different?

The short answer is exports. In all of the other crisis-hit countries (and, indeed, in most of the dozens of countries that have received IMF loans in recent decades), rising exports offset, at least partly, the hit that demand took when their governments slashed spending and raised taxes to balance their books.

Of course, in a large economy where external financing is not a problem, as in the United States or the eurozone, attempting to reduce a budget deficit could conceivably lead to such a large decline in demand (and thus tax revenues) that austerity becomes self-defeating. But this argument does not apply to Greece.

In fact, Greece was running very large current-account deficits – exceeding 10% of GDP – when external financing dried up suddenly in 2008-2009, forcing an adjustment in domestic spending. If the Greek government had not made such an adjustment, domestic demand and employment would certainly have remained higher – but so would imports and large external deficits. So, while austerity did cause a deep recession, it enabled Greece to avoid large external deficits, thereby reducing the size of the bailout the country needed.

Export performance is thus the key to escaping the austerity trap. The problem for Greece is that what little export growth it has experienced lately is largely illusory, as it has come mostly from petroleum products. Since Greece does not produce oil, this can mean only that Greek refiners, which now have considerable excess capacity, are simply exporting imported crude oil in a slightly different form. With refinery margins typically less than 5%, the economy is gaining little added value from these exports. Other exports that have increased, such as metals, raise a similar problem.

Moreover, Greece’s largest services export, maritime shipping, has few real links with the rest of the economy, given that companies in the sector pay no taxes and employ few Greeks (the crews hail from low-wage countries). Undermining the sector’s economic contribution further is the fact that global commodity prices, on which shipping rates depend, have lately been declining. Meanwhile, manufactured goods, which do add domestic value and employment, form only a small share of Greece’s overall exports.

In fact, Greece’s total foreign trade, if properly measured, amounts to only 12% of its GDP, much less than what one would expect from such a small economy. More jarring is the fact that Greece’s total trade deficit (including both goods and services), was even higher in 2008, amounting to 13% of GDP, implying that, in order to avoid a subsequent decline in imports and thus in domestic demand, exports would have had to more than double.

In Portugal, by contrast, the trade deficit amounted to only about one-third of exports in 2008, meaning that exports had to increase by one-third to close the external deficit, without reducing imports. Since then, Portugal has increased exports cumulatively by more than one-quarter, so that, despite a slight increase in imports since 2007, it runs a trade surplus.

To be sure, Greece’s trade deficit has declined, but only because imports collapsed. Meanwhile, exports stagnated, even as wages declined by more than 20%. That, not austerity, is Greece’s real problem. If Greece had experienced the same growth in exports as Portugal (a country of similar size and per capita income), it would not have experienced such a deep recession, and tax revenues would have been higher, making it much easier for the government to achieve a primary budget surplus.

This suggests that a combination of fiscal consolidation, lower wages, and export-oriented reforms could have enabled Greece to move toward a sustainable recovery. This approach has been tried before, and it has failed only once, when Argentina had to default on its foreign debt in 2002 and break a decade-long 1:1 peg to the US dollar.

Unfortunately, Greece resembles Argentina in two key respects. Both countries have only a small export sector, which makes external adjustment much more difficult; and both have an export structure that is skewed toward commodities, the supply of which is unlikely to change much, even as structural reforms are pursued or wages decline.

Of course, this does not mean that Greece is doomed to follow in Argentina’s footsteps toward default. But it does highlight the challenge that the country faces today – namely, to rebuild its export sector from the ground up.

It is time for Greece’s government to recognize this imperative and expand the scope of negotiations with its creditors to include not just the budget, but also strategies for stimulating exports. But, first, Greece must finally recognize that austerity is not the enemy.

May 14, 2015 12:08am

You have to be a bit more diligent with your reasoning. Germany was ravaged by France and Sweden in the 17th century for 30 years as these countries thought they had to enrich themselves while there was a civil waar in the German empire ( religions!). Then Napoleon brought the first modern war over Europe, again to enrich himself and find jobs for his many siblings and relatives. Compared to these atrocities the Prussion -Austrian and Austrian-Bavarian skirmishes were minor. The Brits watched from the side and made sure no one got too powerful, so they could get on with their own business. The Brits did not behave like Gentlemen in Ireland nor Scotland and they certainly were no Gentlemen in their colonies nor were the other colonial powers. Then the German states united under Prussia as the strongest force - the union was voluntary, But now Germany got powerful and rich - threatening the centuries old order in Europe and the Brits and French felt threatened as they had thought for centuries they were superior. The Kaiser, grandson of Queen Victoria was turned into a neurotic by his mother: she rejected him because he had Erb's Palsy ( paralysis of one arm due to birth trauma) - because he had this blemish. He dismissed Bismarck as he wanted to be the most prominent figure but Biosmarck was the Statesman , not Wilhelm. Apart from Ireland I believe all nations were perpetrators at one point in time.
Whenever a Society degenerates there will be destruction to help the appearance of the new and someone has to play that part also for their own sake. Sometimes Nature will oblige. There will always be leaders where you have some form of society, even in the animal kingdom. And they are the ones who are just fit to do their job.

May 14, 2015 12:31am

Britannia rule the waves!!!
World Communism , the Opium war......the lists are endless and nowadays the killing continues.
Have you ever been to Germany? Do you know Germans? What do you know of our history? Who are the current war mongerers?

Why are we demonized because we are successful? Do we have to give in to all and every folly and pay for it as well?
If you want a loan from your bank - is it given freely without any checks and conditions?
Merkel is not the EU but because she is the Chancellor of Germany which happens to be well organized and richer than others her opinion counts. Show me one example of her trying to be the demon she is called or us Germans for that matter!
I for my part think that countries trying to live off others are destroying the EU!

May 14, 2015 1:28am

Instead of repaying the loan that forced Greece to give during the occupation years (be careful i am not talking about the damages that caused and the gold that stoled, ok it was during war that everything was permitted),
used the same money to corrupt European governments through Siemens and other German companies and that is not under discussion but a fact.

Just a couple days ago a new scandal that includes Merkel for spy practices in coalition with USA against other European countries.

So instead of seeing the myopia of Greeks is better to see yours first. German policy looks like that has the same agenda that had before the world wars, i do not know for sure and i do not care also.

Germany does what thinks is better for its country, UK does the same and so on, fair enough, But we should not closing our eyes pretending is not happening

I agree 100% with realjumper, however you have to know that politicians nowdays do not have the same feeling.

May 14, 2015 4:46am

Quoting redfx1989

Disliked

US and Russia is a pass,, China and German is a future

Today war arena at economy, diplomacy, lobby, policy.

Their economy power naturally put others country at trouble, just like tree at jungle, when 1 tree growing bigger and higher, automaticly will put others tree into shade.

war is not solution.
you cut big tree with axe, big tree tumbling, that will hit others small tree. domino effect.
even after that, that giant tree still having root, and will grow again.

remember when Hitler rulling germany, and when many others country...

Ignored

Dedicated to Dr Elisabeth...

May 12, 2015 1:17pm

And the UK don't want to run Europe

Trader#B87A

May 12, 2015 1:47pm

If all the UK economy has going for it is an increase in "consumers" (and I'm sure the business folk don't care where they come from) it shows how bad old Britannia really is and how desperate the Govt is.
In a massively over populated world, once again, the Germans have got is right!
It's not quantity it's quality!

May 12, 2015 1:48pm

PipsExpress, do you want Greece in charge of Europe?
And it is not 'Deutschland ueber alles' , but we always seem to come out of the ashes a little bit stronger.

May 12, 2015 3:18pm

It failed twice in the past, thankfully...

May 13, 2015 9:10am

Quoting Exodus

Disliked

What is FYROM please?

Ignored

It's Macedonia.

May 13, 2015 9:52am

Not sure about relevancy but I recall once read somewhere that Germans are short-sighted.

May 14, 2015 2:38am

Wasn't it W.Churchill who said:
"We should bomb Germany every 50 years. No matter what."

1945-2015....70 years....Hmmm...

Yo, Cameron, Hollande, Obama, Putin! You are 20 years late!!!!

May 14, 2015 7:37pm

Thank you, nikitasnax, that sums it up nicely .

Trader#1A4C

May 13, 2015 5:43am

The most simple answer there is that not too long enough, eu wil come into disntegration whether they like it or not

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May 12, 2015 12:05pm
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