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Poll; Will todays US news strengthen or weakening the USD ? 2 replies

why didn't the Loonie strengthen? 3 replies

Why did jpy strengthen? 17 replies

US has subprime problem, but why USD strengthen? 4 replies

USD - What economic factors will make it strengthen? 16 replies

Attachments: When will the dollar strengthen?
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When will the dollar strengthen?

Who says he lost millions? I think he is still holding his positions.



Quoting alsup1955
Don't forget, Warren Buffet was bearish last year also, and he lost millions....Gos to show u cannot predict the market...................................
I read an article, (I can't remember where) some of his cronnies had stop losses in place and they were triggered. Hence millions were lost.. The dollar went from 1.3500 in January 05 to 1.1800 by year end. Lots o people and companys lost money because rumors were, the dollaro was bearish



Quoting Yardie
Who says he lost millions? I think he is still holding his positions.
I think this UK terror plot is becoming a USD bull catalist.

What do you think?
Quoting alsup1955
I read an article, (I can't remember where) some of his cronnies had stop losses in place and they were triggered. Hence millions were lost.. The dollar went from 1.3500 in January 05 to 1.1800 by year end. Lots o people and companys lost money because rumors were, the dollaro was bearish
http://www.forbes.com/home/services/...19buffett.html

If only we all had 21.8 billion to throw around in the market
Quoting americanteek
http://www.forbes.com/home/services/...19buffett.html

If only we all had 21.8 billion to throw around in the market
Well at least you can be a Part of it.

All you need is $92,800.00 and you can buy ONE Share of it.
In all seriousness, what excuse is left for the dollar bears to rally around? The Fed is done, the Yuan is appreciating, the BOJ is raising rates, and yet the dollar is higher now then prior to all these events. Is the current account really THAT important?

Things look so bad because of oil. All of the inflation and a good portion of the current account are tied directly to the price of oil nearly quadrupeling over the last few years. The chart Nazis can make their case for commodity bull markets, but the fundamental fact is that global economic growth has fueled a demand boom for oil. The capitalist system works and the high price of oil is funneling hundreds of billions of dollars into finding reserves, enhancing production, and developing alternative solutions to the problem. I can't say exactly when, but sometime in the near future a collapse in oil prices is going to occur and when it does, the situation will look very different then it does now.

Humans have this annoying tendancy to project the current situation out into infinity. One example is the babyboomer retirement/end of the US economy falacy. So much is made of this regarding the necessity for inflation and the inevitable cost of goverment without any consideration for how easy it is to solve. The current boomer population is just under 78mil of which ~10% are going to die before reaching 70 years of age. Does anyone ever consider that the US hispanic population alone is expected to grow by 110mil by 2030? Worst case scenario a loosening of the immigration limits would eliminate the social security/medicare problems in a few short years. That may not be the solution that Union Worker Joe is all excited about, but it's a solution nonetheless.

I could dismantle the various other reasons touted by the Gold Bugs and their ilk why the dollar is doomed, but I think you get the point (and I need to leave). Dollar sentiment is already pretty damn bad. I have heard dozens of rationalizations over the past few years for why the dollar should tank, and yet, as each catalyst presents itself it continues to tread water. Master fundamentalist Warren Buffet had his ass handed to him a short while ago over the dollar, and if he can't get it right, something must be missing. The age old market wisdom of "if it should go down and it doesn't, it's going up" might just continue to hold true.
Quoting pippy le pur
How about the running of the usd bull for the next few weeks? Suppose it all depends on US data now for the fed to hike again though. Dollar index is a bit too hard to gauge but looks like it could go higher before the inevitable drop to zero value (usd = peso) over the next decade.
I laugh every time I hear someone compare the USD to the Peso or the Ruble. Comments such as are made show the navity most americans possess regarding the structural efficiency of their own economy. I suppose the idea that by pricing ones debt in a foreign currency (that is susceptable to currency fluctuations) can CAUSE a currency crisis requires too much thought to process. It's far easier for them to just point to a event that bears no relevance to the situation if it illustrates their arguement...
D,

I'm with you on this, but need we be reminded that just a few months ago, the GBP/USD was somewhere in the 1.7200 and now it's in the 1.8900-1.9000 range? That's what? all of 4 months ago? In my book, that's a pretty substantial weakening over a compressed period of time. Perhaps all we're seeing with the dollar treading water is merely an exhausting of upwards momentum after such a short period.

I agree, though...the dollar is probably headed for shorter term strength, but anything that would substantially help the dollar's momentum downwards probably begins and ends with oil...if oil tanks, the dollar strengthens considerably.


Quoting Darkstar
In all seriousness, what excuse is left for the dollar bears to rally around? The Fed is done, the Yuan is appreciating, the BOJ is raising rates, and yet the dollar is higher now then prior to all these events. Is the current account really THAT important?

Things look so bad because of oil. All of the inflation and a good portion of the current account are tied directly to the price of oil nearly quadrupeling over the last few years. The chart Nazis can make their case for commodity bull markets, but the fundamental fact is that global economic growth has fueled a demand boom for oil. The capitalist system works and the high price of oil is funneling hundreds of billions of dollars into finding reserves, enhancing production, and developing alternative solutions to the problem. I can't say exactly when, but sometime in the near future a collapse in oil prices is going to occur and when it does, the situation will look very different then it does now.

Humans have this annoying tendancy to project the current situation out into infinity. One example is the babyboomer retirement/end of the US economy falacy. So much is made of this regarding the necessity for inflation and the inevitable cost of goverment without any consideration for how easy it is to solve. The current boomer population is just under 78mil of which ~10% are going to die before reaching 70 years of age. Does anyone ever consider that the US hispanic population alone is expected to grow by 110mil by 2030? Worst case scenario a loosening of the immigration limits would eliminate the social security/medicare problems in a few short years. That may not be the solution that Union Worker Joe is all excited about, but it's a solution nonetheless.

I could dismantle the various other reasons touted by the Gold Bugs and their ilk why the dollar is doomed, but I think you get the point (and I need to leave). Dollar sentiment is already pretty damn bad. I have heard dozens of rationalizations over the past few years for why the dollar should tank, and yet, as each catalyst presents itself it continues to tread water. Master fundamentalist Warren Buffet had his ass handed to him a short while ago over the dollar, and if he can't get it right, something must be missing. The age old market wisdom of "if it should go down and it doesn't, it's going up" might just continue to hold true.
This terror plot could have been disastrous. I hope that they have it completely foiled. This could have ended up being a 9/11 or 7/7, I'm glad there are some REAL Jack Bauers out there to catch these psychos.
Interesting thread.

Quoting ItLikePoker
Remember, soon the war in Iraq be over ...
Quoting americanteek
Furthermore, people are getting very used to $3 a gallon for gas. This combined with higher prices for diesel (and therefore anything that rides on a truck, which is everything), heating oil, natural gas, and of course electricity....
Patrick_Forbes_article_on_Iraq_Opportunities_in_TradeArabia
http://www.abcc.org.uk/_db/_document...radeArabia.doc
London Friday July 29th 2005
Despite the risks facing any businessman interested in working in Iraq, there can be no doubting the opportunities that exist to make healthy profits, across the board of sectors. With proven reserves of over 115 billion barrels - third in the world after Saudi Arabia and Iran - and yet only 1.9 million bbl/d being extracted in March 2005, the scope for activity in this field is well documented. With the Ministry for Oil announcing its intention to issue new tenders in the last quarter for contracts to develop 11 southern oilfields the oil sector will be a growth area for the Iraqi economy.

I know the article this excerpt is from is just over a year old but...
Still got a little bit o' pumpin' to do before anyone leaves.
"Exactly, I totally agree...When everyone loses faith in the USD, it will eventually bottom & start it's rally..."


"Humans have this annoying tendancy to project the current situation out into infinity. One example is the babyboomer retirement/end of the US economy falacy. So much is made of this regarding the necessity for inflation and the inevitable cost of goverment without any consideration for how easy it is to solve."

"The age old market wisdom of "if it should go down and it doesn't, it's going up"

"It's far easier for them to just point to a event that bears no relevance to the situation if it illustrates their arguement..."

"Since I am not American -- I really do not care much about whether the Republican or the Democrat is in power. What I am getting at is that people often site the deficit (trade and budget) as the potential killer of the American economy and to an extension the USD. They also cite the huge and rising debt (which is related to the aforementioned deficit). This is why Warren Buffet and others are very bearish on the USD long term."
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It's the comments like these that made me jump on this thread before the comments were even made (although my political sarcasm was taken out of context)...there really are no hard and fast formulas, only certain realities/conditions that exist in a given place in time which is then "massaged" by verbal gymnastics from the influential bodies (politicians, media, the fed.....). For example, when will John Q Public know that we are in the next recession (if we are not already, depending on who you talk to).............the powers that be will let him know.....until then, he will continue to be a good foot soldier and keep buying gas and other consumables unless his debt burden catches up to him first. All of this will occur regardless of perceived dollar strength/weakness and/or economic health (John, for the most part is oblivious...but most of us here are not John I'm thinking). The American dream is alive, but the definition morphs itself everyday! (Yardie, I don't mean to make this all about the US, b/c there are plenty of global factors to throw into a Dollar arguement)

Predicting to me is too much commited thought to possibly be wrong. Would rather keep focus on strategies to coral this unpredictable animal we know as FOREX..........(notice the word "coral" vs. "capturing")

Over and out,
Jim
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  • Last Post: Aug 10, 2006 8:04pm Aug 10, 2006 8:04pm
The peso = usd remark was meant as a tongue in cheek comment. Glad you got a laugh! :
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