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  • #8,561
  • May 5, 2015 1:22pm May 5, 2015 1:22pm
Quoting StrayDog
On the other hand, there is ADP and JY tomorrow, but if they don't come out with some nice tricks, we are going down.
If I can get to the end of next week with SPY < $210, I am going to be in tall cotton. JY needs to stop blowing asset bubbles up my butt.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,562
  • May 5, 2015 1:49pm May 5, 2015 1:49pm
Quoting StrayDog
... Well, /ES is practically in a range... It could not break out, so it is going down, I hope to (at least) test the lows of the range, i.e. 2071 or so... This level where the price is NOW is a mofo... 2088. ....
That is gone, at least for now... could be retested... volume is up, already about 1.25 M contracts, i.e. more volume now, going down, than it was on the way up.
All of the "signs" are there.

TF... Yours bearish plays looking good. It is still close and all, but for now, A-OK
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,563
  • May 5, 2015 2:08pm May 5, 2015 2:08pm
Quoting StrayDog
TF... Yours bearish plays looking good. It is still close and all, but for now, A-OK
Yep, most of the SPY spreads are expiring next week, a few more out May4 and May5. I am starting to get on the theta steep slope, just need the SnP to cooperate and keep slipping. It has been a considerably less than ideal ride the last couple weeks, fingers crossed now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,564
  • May 5, 2015 2:24pm May 5, 2015 2:24pm
Quoting The Fool
I bought a weekly SPY $211.5/$211.00 put vertical for $0.17 a little while ago
I am trying to get a $0.25 net gain out of this by the end of the day, will close out for that if I see it. I have May $210.5/$210 debit puts that are in profit about a dime, might let those ride....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,565
  • May 5, 2015 4:14pm May 5, 2015 4:14pm
holy smokes look at TLT. That will rebound if we get a big miss on the NFP come Friday....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,566
  • May 5, 2015 10:02pm May 5, 2015 10:02pm
/ES green overnight, of course, a 1% down day must automatically be followed by a 1% up day. This market is screwing itself up so tight, the explosion up or down, when it comes, could be epic. Or not.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,567
  • May 5, 2015 11:04pm May 5, 2015 11:04pm
Quoting StrayDog
This is a really good time to read a book, since this PA is just booooooooriiiiiiiiing... ... a few books in a reading row... looking at Trades About to Happen right now... looking to improve my scalping abilities.
Thanks for the reference to this book, SDog. I looked at the reviews on Amazon. In some of the reviews there was a reference to the author's webpage where you can download pdf's of the charts in the books - plot them out large and will help you enjoy the book.

http://weisonwyckoff.com/full-size-charts/

From the info on Amazon I see much of the book is dedicated to wave analysis, use of point and figure charts. Idk, man...I have to wonder how useful these ancient techniques are in the age of HFT? If I can find the book via interlibrary loan, I will read it...but I ain't paying $45....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,568
  • May 6, 2015 1:44am May 6, 2015 1:44am
/CL crashing up, looking for $62; fiber same, looking for $1.13....UST's still under heavy pressure

If anybody can tell me wtf is going on, I'd appreciate it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,569
  • May 6, 2015 7:38am May 6, 2015 7:38am
Quoting The Fool
...From the info on Amazon I see much of the book is dedicated to wave analysis, use of point and figure charts. Idk, man...I have to wonder how useful these ancient techniques are in the age of HFT? If I can find the book via interlibrary loan, I will read it...but I ain't paying $45....
Nope, that is on the last 3 chapters... I find the first 8 chapters quite useful. Lots of examples, all on bar charts. What I don't like is the graphical layout of the book, i.e. when author says "look at these lines on picture 2.5" for example, and the picture 2.5 is on the back of that page... Poor navigation, but that is the blame of the publisher. Overall I like it, mainly because I recognized bunch of examples from my own trading, and got confirmations for some specific situations.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,570
  • Edited 8:00am May 6, 2015 7:46am | Edited 8:00am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Nope, that is on the last 3 chapters... I find the first 8 chapters quite useful. Lots of examples, all on bar charts. What I don't like is the graphical layout of the book, i.e. when author says "look at these lines on picture 2.5" for example, and the picture 2.5 is on the back of that page... Poor navigation, but that is the blame of the publisher. Overall I like it, mainly because I recognized bunch of examples from my own trading, and got confirmations for some specific situations.
yep, lots of the Amazon reviewers complain about the charts and disorganization in the book, but offer a separate source for all the charts (see above) so you can print them out large...

anyway, an ADP miss...nonfarm productivity slips...but labor costs move up....the US econ data continue to be scrambled, but in no way forcing the FOMC's hand to be in a hurry to raise the ffr...unless they see things turning up in their crystal ball. What continues to perplex the pundits is the moves up for the euro and bund rates, the continued slide for the USD and UST's....many see the US bonds rout of the last weeks as just a short squeeze....I am looking at a turning place for TLT....possibly $120...it can't drop forever....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,571
  • May 6, 2015 7:59am May 6, 2015 7:59am
Quoting The Fool
....many see the US bonds rout of the last weeks as just a short squeeze....I am looking at a turning place for TLT....possibly $120...it can't drop forever....
TLT IVR continues to run up with its fall, I am looking for that to peter out at $120 or a little below, and look to sell Jun put vert spreads, as soon as I can get off my boatload of SPY credit spreads and free up some margin - hopefully some will come off soon, been too much waiting on those in the sideways market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-05-06_tlt.png Size: 123 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,572
  • May 6, 2015 8:15am May 6, 2015 8:15am
Quoting The Fool
/ES green overnight, of course, a 1% down day must automatically be followed by a 1% up day. This market is screwing itself up so tight, the explosion up or down, when it comes, could be epic. Or not.....
SPY heading for a $0.50 gap up at the open.....and what I had hoped to gain (on weekly SPY put spreads) via theta I will give back in deltas

Watching fiber heading for $1.13, all in the face of a more probable Greek default on Monday....a decent NFP number on Friday could turn that down (NFP does not always follow ADP's lead, of course)....so I am looking at near term FXE put debit spreads
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,573
  • May 6, 2015 8:51am May 6, 2015 8:51am
Quoting The Fool
SPY heading for a $0.50 gap up at the open.....and what I had hoped to gain (on weekly SPY put spreads) via theta I will give back in deltas
impressive reversal, SnP broken 2080, the bears are alive!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,574
  • May 6, 2015 8:59am May 6, 2015 8:59am
super bear flies away from kryptonite
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-05-06_bear.png Size: 35 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,575
  • May 6, 2015 9:13am May 6, 2015 9:13am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} impressive reversal, SnP broken 2080, the bears are alive!
Alive and hungry... Don't like the pullback in biotech sector though... might be just temporarily...

O yeah... give me some down moves... I hear the sweet banking sound from the "other" platform... @ 2073 ES... mofo...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,576
  • May 6, 2015 9:21am May 6, 2015 9:21am
oil storage data out in a few, I'd bet a lean number & just more jet fuel for WTI....!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,577
  • May 6, 2015 9:39am May 6, 2015 9:39am
Quoting The Fool
oil storage data out in a few, I'd bet a lean number & just more jet fuel for WTI....!
/CL spike almost to $62.50, profit taking bringing it back? I am hanging in USO calendars til next week....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,578
  • May 6, 2015 9:43am May 6, 2015 9:43am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} TLT IVR continues to run up with its fall, I am looking for that to peter out at $120 or a little below, and look to sell Jun put vert spreads,
trying to hold my horses here
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,579
  • May 6, 2015 10:18am May 6, 2015 10:18am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} impressive reversal, SnP broken 2080, the bears are alive!
SnP 2080 holding?....look for consolidation thru Thurs, pre-NFP freeze. After JY's comments today on US equities valuations, I am not sure how to read potential NFP outcomes. I suspect SnP seasonal highs are in & will hold & I am hanging in SPY vertical spreads shown above, hit one of the targets, the rest need some time to work on the credit spreads thetas

gotta catch a boat to the Emerald City, will miss today's close, laterzzz
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,580
  • May 6, 2015 10:25am May 6, 2015 10:25am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} impressive reversal, SnP broken 2080, the bears are alive!
they look like it so far, i took a vertical put spread on DIA for Friday expiration as below for net 7c plus comms, may look at others that maybe further out depending on where we may close, If we near the bottom of DOW range then I can see further deeper decline on Friday post NFP

DIA May 2015 178.000 put (DIA150508P00178000)
-OPR
0.75 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.08(11.94%) 15:59

DIA May 2015 177.500 put (DIA150508P00177500)
-OPR
0.68 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.15(28.30%) 16:03
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